Ice‐cover variability on shallow lakes at high latitudes: model simulations and observations

A one‐dimensional thermodynamic model for simulating lake‐ice phenology is presented and evaluated. The model can be driven with observed daily or hourly atmospheric forcing of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, cloud amount and snowfall. In addition to computing the energy balance components, key model output includes the temperature profile at an arbitrary number of levels within the ice/snow (or the water temperature if there is no ice) and ice thickness (clear ice and snow‐ice) on a daily basis, as well as freeze‐up and break‐up dates. The lake‐ice model is used to simulate ice‐growth processes on shallow lakes in arctic, sub‐arctic, and high‐boreal forest environments. Model output is compared with field and remote sensing observations gathered over several ice seasons. Simulated ice thickness, including snow‐ice formation, compares favourably with field measurements. Ice‐on and ice‐off dates are also well simulated when compared with field and satellite observations, with a mean absolute difference of 2 days. Model simulations and observations illustrate the key role that snow cover plays on the seasonal evolution of ice thickness and the timing of spring break‐up. It is also shown that lake morphometry, depth in particular, is a determinant of ice‐off dates for shallow lakes at high latitudes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in ice phenology on polish lakes from 1961 to 2010 related to location and morphometry

Observations of lake ice at the shore, complete ice cover, ice duration, ice thickness and other measures for 18 Polish lakes were collected for the 50 year period (1961–2010). Average ice dates in early winter became later: first appearance of ice along shore 2.3 days decade⁻¹ and complete ice cover 1.2 days decade⁻¹ while complete ice cover disappeared earlier (5.6 days decade⁻¹) as did last ice at the shore (4.3 days decade⁻¹). The duration of ice cover decreased by 5.6 days decade⁻¹ and average ice thickness declined by 6.1 cm decade⁻¹. The magnitude of these values for individual lakes decreased from eastern to western Poland. This geographic gradient is likely related to regional atmospheric circulation because in winter this part of Europe is strongly affected by continental air, an influence that is greater in the east. A multivariate redundancy analysis (RDA), used in order to examine the dependence of ice measures on lake physical properties and location, indicated longitude and altitude as key factors explaining lake ice dynamics such as the disappearance of ice and ice cover, ice cover duration and thickness. Lake volume and average depth influenced mostly the appearance of ice and ice cover.     

Hydrogeomorphic processes of thermokarst lakes with grounded‐ice and floating‐ice regimes on the Arctic coastal plain,Alaska

Thermokarst lakes cover > 20% of the landscape throughout much of the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) with shallow lakes freezing solid (grounded ice) and deeper lakes maintaining perennial liquid water (floating ice). Thus, lake depth relative to maximum ice thickness (1·5–2·0 m) represents an important threshold that impacts permafrost, aquatic habitat, and potentially geomorphic and hydrologic behaviour. We studied coupled hydrogeomorphic processes of 13 lakes representing a depth gradient across this threshold of maximum ice thickness by analysing remotely sensed, water quality, and climatic data over a 35‐year period. Shoreline erosion rates due to permafrost degradation ranged from < 0·2 m/year in very shallow lakes (0·4 m) up to 1·8 m/year in the deepest lakes (2·6 m). This pattern of thermokarst expansion masked detection of lake hydrologic change using remotely sensed imagery except for the shallowest lakes with stable shorelines. Changes in the surface area of these shallow lakes tracked interannual variation in precipitation minus evaporation (P ? E_L) with periods of full and nearly dry basins. Shorter‐term (2004–2008) specific conductance data indicated a drying pattern across lakes of all depths consistent with the long‐term record for only shallow lakes. Our analysis suggests that grounded‐ice lakes are ice‐free on average 37 days longer than floating‐ice lakes resulting in a longer period of evaporative loss and more frequent negative P ? E_L. These results suggest divergent hydrogeomorphic responses to a changing Arctic climate depending on the threshold created by water depth relative to maximum ice thickness in ACP lakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate warming alters thermal stability but not stratification phenology in a small north‐temperate lake

Recent climate change represents one of the most serious anthropogenic threats to lake ecosystems in Canada. As meteorological and hydrological conditions are altered by climate change, so too are physical, chemical and biological properties of lakes. The ability to quantify the impact of climate change on the physical properties of lakes represents an integral step in estimating future chemical and biological change. To that end, we have used the dynamic reservoir simulation model, a one‐dimensional vertical heat transfer and mixing model, to hindcast and compare lake temperature‐depth profiles against 30 years of long‐term monitoring data in Harp Lake, Ontario. These temperature profiles were used to calculate annual (June–September) thermal stability values from 1979 to 2009. Comparisons between measured and modelled lake water temperature and thermal stability over three decades showed strong correlation (r² > 0.9). However, despite significant increases in modelled thermal stability over the 30 year record, we found no significant change in the timing of the onset, breakdown or the duration of thermal stratification. Our data suggest that increased air temperature and decreased wind are the primary drivers of enhanced stability in Harp Lake since 1979. The high‐predictive ability of the Harp Lake dynamic reservoir simulation model suggests that its use as a tool in future lake management projects is appropriate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Differences and cause analysis of changes in lakes of different supply types in the north‐western Tibetan Plateau

Most lakes of the Tibetan Plateau were experiencing quick expansion in recent decades; a detailed study on the changes in lakes of different supply types will help to understand the cause of the changes by analysing area change of 34 lakes and water level change of eight lakes in the north‐western Tibetan Plateau. All lakes are classified into three types: non‐glacier‐fed lakes, upstream lakes and glacier‐fed lakes. The glacier‐fed lakes are separated into glacier‐fed_P1 (quick expansion region) and glacier‐fed_P2 (slow expansion region). Combining the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation, less precipitation may be the main reason for lake shrinkage from 1976 to 1996 and quickly increasing precipitation led to the lakes' expansion from 1996 to 2000. However, after 2000, upstream lakes remained in a stable state with slight variation, non‐glacier‐fed lakes and glacier‐fed_P2 lakes exhibited a slightly increasing rate with high precipitation and high evaporation, and glacier‐fed_P1 lakes still expanded quickly. On the basis of the assumption of same precipitation and evaporation, glacial meltwater may make an important contribution (>52%) to the increase in water storage of Bangdag Co and Meima Co. The results suggest that glacial meltwater augments the increased rate of glacier‐fed_P2 lakes and plays a much more important role in the expansion of glacier‐fed_P1 lakes compared to other lakes.     

Effects of changing climate on ice cover in three morphometrically different lakes

A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic lake model (DYRESM‐WQ‐I) is employed to simulate ice cover and water temperatures over the period 1911–2014. The effects of climate changes (air temperature and wind speed) on ice cover (ice‐on, ice‐off, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) are modeled and compared for the three different morphometry lakes: Fish Lake, Lake Wingra, and Lake Mendota, located in Madison, Wisconsin, USA. It is found that the ice cover period has decreased due to later ice‐on dates and earlier ice‐off dates, and the annual maximum ice cover thickness has decreased for the three lakes during the last century. Based upon simulated perturbations of daily mean air temperatures across the range of ?10°C to +10°C of historical values, Fish Lake has the most occurrences of no ice cover and Lake Wingra still remains ice covered under extreme conditions (+10°C). Overall, shallower lakes with larger surface areas appear more resilient to ice cover changes caused by climate changes.     

Hydro‐climatic impacts on the ice cover of the lower Peace River

Since the late 1960s, a paucity of ice‐jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) region. Though major ice jams occur at breakup, antecedent conditions play a significant role in their frequency and severity. These conditions are partly defined by the mode of freezeup and the maximum thickness that is attained during the winter, shortly before the onset of spring and development of positive net heat fluxes to the ice cover. Data from hydrometric gauge records and from field surveys are utilized herein to study these conditions. It is shown that freezeup flows are considerably larger at the present time than before regulation, and may be responsible for more frequent formation of porous accumulation covers. Despite a concomitant rise in winter temperatures, solid‐ice thickness has increased since the 1960s. Using a simple ice growth model, specifically developed for the study area, it is shown that porous accumulation covers enhance winter ice growth via accelerated freezing into the porous accumulation. Coupled with a reduction in winter snowfall, this effect can not only negate, but reverse, the effect of warmer winters on ice thickness, thus explaining present conditions. The present model is also shown to be a useful prediction tool, especially for extrapolating incomplete data to the end of the winter. Copyright © 2007 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating the potential of a blended passive microwave‐interactive multi‐sensor product for improved mapping of snow cover and estimations of snow water equivalent

The retrieval of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) from remote sensing satellites continues to be a very challenging problem. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of a new SWE product derived from the blending of a passive microwave SWE product based on the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) with a multi‐sensor snow cover extent product based on the Interactive Multi‐sensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). The microwave measurements have the ability to penetrate the snow pack, and thus, the retrieval of SWE is best accomplished using the AMSU. On the other hand, the IMS maps snow cover more reliably due to the use of multiple satellite and ground observations. The evolution of global snow cover from the blended, the AMSU and the IMS products was examined during the 2006 snow season. Despite the overall good inter‐product agreement, it was shown that the retrievals of snow cover extent in the blended product are improved when using IMS, with implications for improved microwave retrievals of SWE. In a separate investigation, the skill of the microwave SWE product was also examined for its ability to correctly estimate SWE globally and regionally. Qualitative evaluation of global SWE retrievals suggested dependence on land surface temperature: the lower the temperature, the higher the SWE retrieved. This temperature bias was attributed in part to temperature effects on those snow properties that impact microwave response. Therefore, algorithm modifications are needed with more dynamical adjustments to account for changing snow cover. Quantitative evaluation over Slovakia in central Europe, for a limited period in 2006, showed reasonably good performance for SWE less than 100 mm. Sensitivity to deeper snow decreased significantly. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the winter evolution of snow thermophysical properties over land‐fast first‐year sea ice

The geophysical, thermodynamic and dielectric properties of snow are important state variables that are known to be sensitive to Arctic climate variability and change. Given recent observations of changes in the Arctic physical system (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004), it is important to focus on the processes that give rise to variability in the horizontal, vertical and temporal dimensions of the life‐history of snow on sea ice. The objectives in this study are to present these ‘state’ variables and to investigate the processes that govern variability in the vertical, horizontal and temporal dimension by using a case study over land‐fast first‐year sea ice for the period December 2003 to June 2004. Results from two sampling areas (thin and thick snowpacks) show that differences in snowpack thickness can substantially change the vertical and temporal evolution of snow properties. During the late fall and early winter (cooling period) we measured no significant changes in the physical properties, except for thin snow‐cover salinity, which decreased throughout the period. Fall‐snow desalination was only observed under thin snowpacks with a rate of ?0·12 ppt day^?1. Significant changes occurred in the late winter and early spring (warming period), especially for snow grain size. Snow grain kinetic growth of 0·25–0·48 mm·day^?1 was measured coincidently with increasing salinity and wetness for both thin and thick snowpacks. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring over‐winter soil water dynamics in a freezing and snow‐covered environment using a thermally insulated tensiometer

Water potential below a frozen soil layer was continuously monitored over an entire winter period (using thermally insulated tensiometers sheltered in a heated chamber) along with other soil, snow and atmospheric variables. In early winter, the freezing front advanced under a thin snow cover, inducing upward soil water flow in the underlying unfrozen soil. The freezing front started to retreat when the snow cover became thick enough to insulate the soil, resulting in the reversal of the flow direction in the unfrozen zone. These data provide a clear illustration of soil water dynamics, which have rarely been monitored with a tensiometer. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical weathering since the Little Ice Age recorded in lake sediments: a high‐resolution proxy of past climate

Because of the different geochemical behaviour of rubidium and strontium in earth surface processes, variations of the Rb/Sr ratios in lake sediments were used as a geochemical proxy of chemical weathering and past climate in a single watershed. Low magnetic susceptibility, low CaCO₃, low Sr concentration and, hence, high Rb/Sr ratio in the lake sediments indicate weak chemical weathering under a cold but wet climate during the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the closed Daihai Lake watershed. The concordant change in both Sr and CaCO₃ concentrations with δ¹⁸O values in the Dunde ice core suggests that weak chemical weathering during the wet LIA was controlled by air temperature. After the LIA, however, precipitation played a dominant role in chemical weathering. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First‐year sea ice spring melt transitions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from time‐series synthetic aperture radar data, 1992–2002

This paper synthesizes 10‐years' worth of interannual time‐series space‐borne ERS‐1 and RADARSAT‐1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data collected coincident with daily measurement of snow‐covered, land‐fast first‐year sea ice (FYI) geophysical and surface radiation data collected from the Seasonal Sea Ice Monitoring and Modeling Site, Collaborative‐Interdisciplinary Cryospheric Experiment and 1998 North Water Polynya study over the period 1992 to 2002. The objectives are to investigate the seasonal co‐relationship of the SAR time‐series dataset with selected surface mass (bulk snow thickness) and climate state variables (surface temperature and albedo) measured in situ for the purpose of measuring the interannual variability of sea ice spring melt transitions and validating a time‐series SAR methodology for sea ice surface mass and climate state parameter estimation. We begin with a review of the salient processes required for our interpretation of time‐series microwave backscatter from land‐fast FYI. Our results suggest that time‐series SAR data can reliably measure the timing and duration of surface albedo transitions at daily to weekly time‐scales and at a spatial scales that are on the order of hundreds of metres. Snow thickness on FYI immediately prior to melt onset explains a statistically significant portion of the variability in timing of SAR‐detected melt onset to pond onset for SAR time‐series that are made up of more than 25 images. Our results also show that the funicular regime of snowmelt, resolved in time‐series SAR data at a temporal resolution of approximately 2·5 images per week, is not detectable for snow covers less than 25 cm in thickness. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of permafrost thaw on the dynamics of lakes recharged by ice‐jam floods: case study of Yukon Flats,Alaska

Large river floods are a key water source for many lakes in fluvial periglacial settings. Where permeable sediments occur, the distribution of permafrost may play an important role in the routing of floodwaters across a floodplain. This relationship is explored for lakes in the discontinuous permafrost of Yukon Flats, interior Alaska, using an analysis that integrates satellite‐derived gradients in water surface elevation, knowledge of hydrogeology, and hydrologic modelling. We observed gradients in water surface elevation between neighbouring lakes ranging from 0.001 to 0.004. These high gradients, despite a ubiquitous layer of continuous shallow gravel across the flats, are consistent with limited groundwater flow across lake basins resulting from the presence of permafrost. Permafrost impedes the propagation of floodwaters in the shallow subsurface and constrains transmission to ‘fill‐and‐spill’ over topographic depressions (surface sills), as we observed for the Twelvemile‐Buddy Lake pair following a May 2013 ice‐jam flood on the Yukon River. Model results indicate that permafrost table deepening of 1–11 m in gravel, depending on watershed geometry and subsurface properties, could shift important routing of floodwater to lakes from overland flow (fill‐and‐spill) to shallow groundwater flow (‘fill‐and‐seep’). Such a shift is possible in the next several hundred years of ground surface warming and may bring about more synchronous water level changes between neighbouring lakes following large flood events. This relationship offers a potentially useful tool, well suited to remote sensing, for identifying long‐term changes in shallow groundwater flow resulting from thawing of permafrost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heat exchange processes and thermal dynamics of a glacier‐fed alpine stream

Glacier‐fed river thermal regimes vary markedly in space and time; however, knowledge is limited on the fundamental processes controlling alpine stream temperature dynamics. To address the research gap, this study quantified heat exchanges at the water surface and bed of the Taillon glacier‐fed stream, French Pyrénées. Hydro‐meteorological observations were recorded at 15‐min intervals across two summer melt seasons (2010 and 2011), and energy balance components were measured or estimated based on site‐specific data. Averaged over both seasons, net radiation was the largest heat source (~80% of total flux); sensible heat (~13%) and friction (~3%) were also sources, while heat exchange across the channel–streambed interface was negligible (<1%). Latent heat displayed distinct interannual variability and contributed 5% in 2010 compared with 0.03% in 2011. At the sub‐seasonal scale, latent heat shifted from source to sink, possibly linked to the retreating valley snowline that changed temperature and humidity gradients. These findings represent the first, multiyear study of the heat exchange processes operating in a glacier‐fed stream, providing fundamental process understanding; the research highlights the direct control antecedent (winter) conditions that have on energy exchange and stream temperature during summer months. In particular, the timing and volume of snowfall/snowmelt can drive thermal dynamics by the following: (1) altering the length of the stream network exposed to the atmosphere and (2) controlling the volume and timing of cold water advection downstream. Finally, this study highlights the need to develop long‐term hydro‐meteorological monitoring stations to improve the understanding of these highly dynamic, climatically sensitive systems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on runoff from a mid‐latitude mountainous catchment in central Japan

Hydrologic balance in high‐altitude, mid‐latitude mountain areas is important in terms of the water resources available to associated lowlands. This study examined how current and historical shifts in precipitation (P) patterns and concurrent increases in temperature (T) affected runoff (Q) and other hydrologic components in a mid‐latitude mountain catchment of central Japan, using a combination of long‐term data and a simplified hydrologic model, along with their stochastic treatment. The availability of intensive meteorological and hydrological data from the period 1997–2001 allowed the derivation of key relationships for the current climate that tie the forcing term to the parameters or state variables. By using the data recorded in the period 1965–2001, the force for driving the historical simulation was generated. Based on this model and historical shifts in P and T, the probability density functions of Q (pdf(Q)) was computed. A main novelty in this study is that such a stochastic representation, which is useful for considering the influence of projected shifts in environmental factors on the hydrologic budget, was provided. Despite the large increase in the rate of T in winter and spring, pdf(Q) in spring and summer varied appreciably during the time studied mainly because of an increase in snowmelt. An interannual change in whole‐year Q was robust to shifts in T because while Q in spring increased, in summer it decreased, implying a crucial effect of global warming on mountain hydrologic regimes is change in the timing of Q. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Heterogeneous water storage and thermal regime of supraglacial ponds on debris‐covered glaciers

The water storage and energy transfer roles of supraglacial ponds are poorly constrained, yet they are thought to be important components of debris‐covered glacier ablation budgets. We used an unmanned surface vessel (USV) to collect sonar depth measurements for 24 ponds to derive the first empirical relationship between their area and volume applicable to the size distribution of ponds commonly encountered on debris‐covered glaciers. Additionally, we instrumented nine ponds with thermistors and three with pressure transducers, characterizing their thermal regime and capturing three pond drainage events. The deepest and most irregularly‐shaped ponds were those associated with ice cliffs, which were connected to the surface or englacial hydrology network (maximum depth = 45.6 m), whereas hydrologically‐isolated ponds without ice cliffs were both more circular and shallower (maximum depth = 9.9 m). The englacial drainage of three ponds had the potential to melt ~100 ± 20 × 10³ kg to ~470 ± 90 × 10³ kg of glacier ice owing to the large volumes of stored water. Our observations of seasonal pond growth and drainage with their associated calculations of stored thermal energy have implications for glacier ice flow, the progressive enlargement and sudden collapse of englacial conduits, and the location of glacier ablation hot‐spots where ponds and ice cliffs interact. Additionally, the evolutionary trajectory of these ponds controls large proglacial lake formation in deglaciating environments. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new approach of dynamic monitoring of 5‐day snow cover extent and snow depth based on MODIS and AMSR‐E data from Northern Xinjiang region

Taking the Northern Xinjiang region as an example, we develop a snow depth model by using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer‐Earth Observing System (AMSR‐E) horizontal and vertical polarization brightness temperature difference data of 18 and 36 GHz bands and in situ snow depth measurements from 20 climatic stations during the snow seasons November–March) of 2002–2005. This article proposes a method to produce new 5‐day snow cover and snow depth images, using Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily snow cover products and AMSR‐E snow water equivalent and daily brightness temperature products. The results indicate that (1) the brightness temperature difference (Tb_18h–Tb_36h) provides the most accurate and precise prediction of snow depth; (2) the snow, land and overall classification accuracies of the new images are separately 89.2%, 77.7% and 87.2% and are much better than those of AMSR‐E or MODIS products (in all weather conditions) alone; (3) the snow classification accuracy increases as snow depth increases; and (4) snow accuracies for different land cover types vary as 88%, 92.3%, 79.7% and 80.1% for cropland, grassland, shrub, and urban and built‐up, respectively. We conclude that the new 5‐day snow cover–snow depth images can provide both accurate cloud‐free snow cover extent and the snow depth dynamics, which would lay a scientific basis for water management and prevention of snow‐related disasters in this dry and cold pastoral area. After validations of the algorithms over other regions with different snow and climate conditions, this method would also be used for monitoring snow cover and snow depth elsewhere in the world. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of climate changes and water‐related human activities on annual stream flows of the Shiyang river basin in arid north‐west China

The change of annual stream flow in the Shiyang river basin, a typical arid‐inland basin in north‐west China, was investigated using hydrological, meteorological and water‐related human activities' data of the past 50 years. The long‐term trends of the hydrological time series were examined by non‐parametric techniques, including the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests. Double cumulative curves and multi‐regression methods were used to separate and quantify the effects of climate changes and human activities on the stream flows. The results show that the study area has been experiencing a significant upward warming trend since 1986 and precipitation shows a decreasing trend in the mountainous region but an increasing trend in the plains region. All stream flows in the upper reach and lower reaches of the Shiyang river exhibit decreasing tendencies. Since 1970, human activities, such as irrigation, have had a significant effect on the upstream flow, and account for 60% of total flow decreases in the 1970s. However, climate changes are the main reason for the observed flow decreases in the 1980s and 1990s, with contributions to total flow decrease of 68% and 63%, respectively. Before 1975, flow decreases in the upper reaches were the main factor causing reduced flows in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river. After 1975, the effect of human activities became more pronounced, with contributions of 63%, 68% and 56% to total flow decreases in the lower reaches of the Shiyang river in the periods 1975 to 1980, 1980s and 1990s, respectively. As a result, climate change is responsible for a large proportion of the flow decreases in the upstream section of the catchment during the 1980s and 1990s, while human activities have caused flow decreases downstream during the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrological processes in a glacier‐dominated catchment

The processes by which climate change affects streamflow in alpine river basins are not entirely understood. This study evaluated the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on runoff and streamflow using glacier‐enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The study used observed and detrended historical meteorological data for recent decades (1961–2005) to analyse individual and combined effects of temperature and precipitation changes on snow and glacier melts and discharges in the Sary‐Djaz‐Kumaric River Basin (SRB), Tianshan Mountains. The results showed a 1.3% increase in annual snowmelt in the basin, mainly because of an increase in precipitation. Snowmelt in the basin varied seasonally, increasing from April through May because of increasing precipitation and decreasing from July through September because of rising temperature. Glacier melt increased by 5.4%, 5.0% of which was due to rising temperature and only 0.4% due to increasing precipitation. Annual streamflow increased by 4.4%, of which temperature and precipitation increases accounted for 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively. The impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on streamflow were especially significant after 1980 and even more so in September. Glacier melt, due to temperature rise, was the dominant driver of increasing streamflow in the glacier‐dominated SRB, Tianshan Mountains. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.