共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 72 毫秒
1.
碳中和是指人类活动造成的碳排放与全球人为碳吸收量在一定时期内达到平衡,也称为净零排放 [1].《巴黎协定》第四条提出采取减排增汇措施以实现21世纪后半叶人为温室气体排放量与汇的清除量达到平衡 [2].越来越多的国家正将其转化为战略和行动,目前已有100多个国家提出碳中和目标承诺,并明确了碳中和时间表.2020年9月第7... 相似文献
2.
全球长期减排目标将对世界未来的碳排放形成严重制约,减排义务的分担原则涉及各国的发展空间,事关根本利益。部分发达国家倡导人均排放趋同原则,回避发达国家的历史责任,中国等发展中国家提出人均累积排放趋同原则,强调公平性。按人均累积排放量计算,发达国家自工业革命以来的CO 2排放量已远超出其到2050年前应有的限额,其当前和今后相当长时期的高人均排放都将继续挤占发展中国家的排放空间。因此,发达国家在哥本哈根会议的中近期减排承诺中必须深度减排,以实现全球长期减排目标下的排放轨迹,并为发展中国家留有必要的发展空间。同时必须对发展中国家给予充足的资金和技术支持,作为对其过度挤占发展中国家发展空间的补偿,使发展中国家能够在可持续发展框架下,提高应对气候变化的能力。我国在对外坚持公平原则,努力争取合理的排放空间的同时,对内要加强向低碳经济转型,努力实现保护全球气候和国内可持续发展的双赢。 相似文献
3.
作为全球煤电装机规模最大且仍在扩张的国家,中国需要慎重评估兑现《巴黎协定》温室气体减排承诺带来的潜在煤电资产搁浅问题.研究运用\"上下交互\"的碳锁定曲线模型,识别不同产能扩张情景下(无新增、新增200、300和400 GW)的搁浅煤电机组.首先,从\"自上而下\"角度匡算中国煤电行业2℃温升目标下的碳配额.然后,从\"自下而上... 相似文献
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为共同应对全球气候变化,国际海事组织(IMO)计划制定一套强制性船舶营运能效(碳排放强度)国际机制,与现有强制性船舶设计能效机制互为补充.然而,由于受诸多因素影响,船舶营运能效具有较大的随机性和不确定性,为相关国际机制的构建带来巨大挑战.文中通过构建带有年份虚拟变量的碳强度分位数回归模型,实现了对不同时期海运船队碳排放... 相似文献
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以人均历史累计排放为基础,借用了收入分配公平的研究思路,以洛仑兹曲线和基尼系数为指标,尝试以一个综合性的指标测度排放空间中的分配公平问题。对碳基尼系数的分析表明,目前70%的排放空间被用于不公平分配,其分配差异同目前收入差异最悬殊的国家在同一水平上,解决碳公平问题迫在眉睫。基于人均累计排放的碳基尼系数可以用以度量碳排放空间的不平等,并为国际社会对碳公平的讨论提供一个量化的指标。 相似文献
6.
随着气候变化影响加剧,全球气候治理进程加速,实现碳达峰已经成为全球气候行动的核心,各国也相继制定碳中和目标并开展行动。中国在第75届联合国大会一般性辩论上提出了碳达峰碳中和目标,部分已实现碳达峰的发达经济体也提出了各自的碳中和承诺。文中从“整体-阶段”及“焦点-公平”视角分析了欧盟和美国等主要发达经济体碳达峰的历程和特点,以及其碳中和目标和规划。研究发现,发达经济体在碳达峰过程中普遍经历了较长的爬坡期（58~136年）和平台期（4~20年),在碳达峰时,发达经济体的能源结构以油气为主,油气占一次能源消费比重为57%~77%,其人均排放量、历史累计排放以及人均GDP也都处于较高水平,在碳达峰前后总体处于经济与碳排放脱钩状态。各发达经济体的碳中和路径均以能源转型为重点,采用了多元化的政策工具,并且注重低碳和负碳技术的革新。根据发达经济体的政策展望,在实现碳中和时,均难以将绝对排放量降为零,都需要通过碳移除手段进行抵消。通过对比分析,发现中国的碳达峰和碳中和目标是具有雄心的气候承诺,相较其他发达经济体需要付出更大努力。建议运用全面综合的政策工具支撑碳中和目标的有效落实,加快中国的气候立法,在兼顾公正转型的同时推动能源结构调整,注重可再生能源和能效方面的新技术开发应用。 相似文献
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中国在碳达峰碳中和的“1+N”政策体系中提出要将能耗双控过渡到碳排放双控,建立碳排放总量控制制度。已有研究大多关注目标制定、碳排放分配的方法学,或以制度体系设计为对象进行分析,缺乏对分解模式、不同责任主体协同、责任主体与排放源匹配等制度关键问题的讨论。文中从制度实施角度着眼,梳理国内外控制碳排放的相关制度实践,提出构建碳排放总量控制制度的“目标分解→出台政策→实施行动→评估调整”全流程管理和要素,并提出各个环节的具体建议：(1)目标分解采用“区域和行业分解相结合”的模式,将发电等纳入碳市场行业的重点排放单位按行业分解和管控,其他排放源（包括一般排放企业、建筑、交通等）按区域分解和管控;(2)政策工具要匹配责任主体的管理模式和排放源的减排重点,发挥不同责任主体间的协同作用,避免重复管理;(3)要建设相应的数据核算和支撑体系,并形成评估反馈和调整机制。 相似文献
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作为《联合国气候变化框架公约》(简称公约）和《巴黎协定》资金机制最大运营实体,绿色气候基金(GCF)不仅是发达国家兑现1000亿美元长期资金承诺的重要平台,亦是公约和《巴黎协定》目标达成的关键因素。文中系统总结了GCF在推进气候变化国际合作进程、为发展中国家应对气候变化提供资金支持、推动私营部门参与应对气候变化行动等方面的积极作用。提出在当前多边合作面临挑战的复杂背景下,GCF亦面临美国退群、缺乏有效决策机制、项目质量及秘书处能力有待提高等系列问题。文章认为,一个持续有效运营的GCF是国际社会落实《巴黎协定》实施细则的重要保障,各方应尽快凝聚政治共识,推动GCF在全球气候治理体系中继续发挥积极作用。首先,应通过引入投票权决策机制、完善政策缺口、创新业务模式等措施提升基金治理和运营效率;其次,通过尽快完成正式增资进程、拓宽资金渠道、加强剩余资金管理等方式确保充足及可持续的资金来源;最后,还应通过强化与现有气候基金的协调互补、加大与多边发展银行的合作等途径与各方资金形成合力,推动资金流向低碳和气候韧性发展领域。文章还提出,中国应在有效发挥发达国家和发展中国家桥梁作用的基础上,引导GCF投票权改革以消除政治因素对GCF长远发展的负面影响,同时通过积极争取获得下届董事席位,推进与GCF全方位合作、参与GCF正式增资进程等举措,服务生态文明建设及全球应对气候变化目标。 相似文献
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《巴黎协定》达成之后的实施细则谈判从一开始就面临各种挑战。尽管如此,卡托维兹气候大会基本完成了实施细则的磋商,通过统一规则的制定夯实了基于规则的气候治理框架,为“自下而上”的松散协定注入了更多规则绑定强制性色彩,提升了协定的法律地位。会议也见证了气候世界的分裂,包括主要缔约方立场的退化、谈判集团的分化重组、利益集团的博弈、对科学报告的分歧等,从而使关于力度的磋商没有实质进展。从巴黎到卡托维兹的谈判路程表明治理全球化、治理效率以及国家主权之间暂时存在“不可能三角”。未来的谈判应促进从规则到行动的转变。 相似文献
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利用民意调查数据,以相关研究作为补充,分析美国公众对全球变暖的认知、减缓行为和气候政策的支持等。分析表明,大部分美国民众认为全球在变暖,但很多人不了解全球变暖与温室气体的关系,把全球变暖混为大气污染和臭氧层耗竭等;不到一半的公众认为全球变暖对个人和美国是现实威胁,更多的公众认为全球变暖对后代和发展中国家是严重威胁;大部分公众认为减缓全球变暖需要改变现有的生活方式和行为,他们愿意选择较容易从事和成本低的行为减少碳排放,但不愿意从根本上改变生活方式,改变自驾车、乘飞机长途旅游这些碳排放量更大的行为;公众普遍支持政府采取措施限制温室气体排放,但不希望所采取的措施对就业和经济带来不利影响;支持通过技术进步和减免税收等措施提高能效,减少碳排放,但大部分反对为节能而提高能源税收。 相似文献
11.
《巴黎协定》提出1.5℃目标以及中国2060年前达到碳中和的目标背景下,为研究实现1.5℃目标的技术路径,构建了综合性的能源-经济-环境系统模型,研究中国在2℃情景基础上实现1.5℃目标的额外减排要求、部门贡献和关键减排措施.结果显示,1.5℃情景要求到2050年CO2排放量减少到6亿t.一次能源消费总量2045年达峰... 相似文献
12.
水泥行业是温室气体与局地污染物协同控制的重点行业。以往该行业的协同控制评估或针对个别企业,或采用自上而下和自下而上模拟模型结合情景分析评估行业协同减排效益,尚缺乏系统评估水泥行业全系列节能减排措施（或技术）协同控制效果的研究。文中首先测算水泥行业24项节能减排措施综合大气污染物协同减排量,再通过协同控制效应坐标系、交叉弹性、单位污染物减排成本等评估指标和方法,对这些措施开展协同控制效果评估。结果表明大多数节能减排措施可协同减排局地大气污染物;协同减排潜力最大的是结构调整措施;能效提升与节能措施的协同减排成本较低,但减排潜力有限。本文强化了水泥行业节能减排措施的协同控制效能特性分析,可为水泥行业开展协同控制路径规划提供参考。 相似文献
13.
欧盟自1997年起就如何通过市场和行政手段“双轮驱动”控制碳排放总量进行不断探索,并逐步建立了较为成熟的碳排放交易体系及减排责任分担机制,已经取得了良好的减排效果。文中梳理分析《责任分担条例》修正案中关于成员国减排目标更新的内容、目标分配的原则与方法、灵活性机制,归纳了欧盟采用行政手段控制碳排放交易系统未涉及部门的温室气体排放的经验,并对中国如何构建充分考虑市场手段和行政手段的CO 2排放总量控制制度提出政策建议。 相似文献
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This article provides an ex post analysis of the compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period (2008–2012) based on the final data for national GHG emissions and exchanges in carbon units that became available at the end of 2015. On the domestic level, among the 36 countries that fully participated in the Kyoto Protocol, only nine countries emitted higher levels of GHGs than committed and therefore had to resort to flexibility mechanisms. On the international level – i.e. after the use of flexibility mechanisms – all Annex B Parties are in compliance. Countries implemented different compliance strategies: purchasing carbon units abroad, stimulating the domestic use of carbon credits by the private sector and incentivizing domestic emission reductions through climate policies. Overall, the countries party to the Protocol surpassed their aggregate commitment by an average 2.4 GtCO2e yr–1. Of the possible explanations for this overachievement, ‘hot-air’ was estimated at 2.2 GtCO2e yr–1, while accounting rules for land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) further removed 0.4 GtCO2e yr–1 from the net result excluding LULUCF. The hypothetical participation of the US and Canada would have reduced this overachievement by a net 1 GtCO2e yr–1. None of these factors – some of which may be deemed illegitimate – would therefore on its own have led to global non-compliance, even without use of the 0.3 GtCO2e of annual emissions reductions generated by the Clean Development Mechanism. The impact of domestic policies and ‘carbon leakage’ – neither of which is quantitatively assessed here – should not be neglected either. Policy relevance Given the ongoing evolution of the international climate regime and the adoption of the Paris Agreement in December 2015, we believe that there is a need to evaluate the results of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. To our knowledge there has been no overarching quantitative ex post assessment of the Kyoto Protocol based on the final emissions data for 2008–2012, which became available in late 2015. This article attempts to fill this gap, focusing on the domestic and international compliance of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period. 相似文献
15.
Unleakable carbon, or the uncombusted methane and carbon dioxide associated with fossil fuel systems, constitutes a potentially large and heretofore unrecognized factor in determining use of Earth’s remaining fossil fuel reserves. Advances in extraction technology have encouraged a shift to natural gas, but the advantage of fuel switching depends strongly on mitigating current levels of unleakable carbon, which can be substantial enough to offset any climate benefit relative to oil or coal. To illustrate the potential warming effect of methane emissions associated with utilizable portions of our remaining natural gas reserves, we use recent data published in peer-reviewed journals to roughly estimate the impact of these emissions. We demonstrate that unless unleakable carbon is curtailed, up to 59–81% of our global natural gas reserves must remain underground if we hope to limit warming to 2°C from 2010 to 2050. Successful climate change mitigation depends on improved quantification of current levels of unleakable carbon and a determination of acceptable levels of these emissions within the context of international climate change agreements. Policy relevanceIt is imperative that companies, investors, and world leaders considering capital expenditures and policies towards continued investment in natural gas fuels do so with a complete understanding of how dependent the ultimate climate benefits are upon increased regulation of unleakable carbon, the uncombusted carbon-based gases associated with fossil fuel systems, otherwise referred to as ‘fugitive’, ‘leaked’, ‘vented’, ‘flared’, or ‘unintended’ emissions. Continued focus on combustion emissions alone, or unburnable carbon, undermines the importance of assessing the full climate impacts of fossil fuels, leading many stakeholders to support near-term mitigation strategies that rely on fuel switching from coal and oil to cleaner burning natural gas. The current lack of transparent accounting of unleakable carbon represents a significant gap in the understanding of what portions of the Earth’s remaining global fossil fuel reserves can be utilized while still limiting global warming to 2°C. Successful climate change mitigation requires that stakeholders confront the issue of both unburnable and unleakable carbon when considering continued investment in and potential expansion of natural gas systems as part of a climate change solution. 相似文献
16.
Nearly every carbon price regulates the production of carbon emissions, typically at midstream points of compliance such as power plants, consistent with typical advice from the literature. Since the early 2010s however, policymakers in Australia, California, China, Japan and Korea have implemented carbon prices that regulate the consumption of carbon emissions, where points of compliance are further downstream, such as distributors or final consumers. This article identifies the pivot towards placing the point of compliance for carbon prices further downstream as an emerging international trend, describes the designs of different prices on carbon consumption around the world, and explains the various motivations of the policymakers implementing them. Findings reveal that policymakers tend to layer prices on carbon consumption on top of prices on carbon production in an effort to improve economic outcomes by addressing incomplete pass-through of the carbon price from producer to consumer, thereby facilitating more cost-effective abatement. Policymakers also use prices on carbon consumption to reduce emissions leakage or because large producers of carbon are not within their jurisdiction. The prevalence of prices on carbon consumption will likely increase as evidenced by proposals in China and Europe. Key policy insights The recent surge in the number of jurisdictions implementing prices on carbon consumption represents an emerging international trend. Policymakers use prices on carbon consumption in an effort to improve economic outcomes and capture environmental benefits. While this article offers insights that detail initial challenges and successes, whether these prices on carbon consumption actually achieve their intended goals is an academically rich topic that requires further research on individual policies.
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17.
构建了具有7个国家集团的全球多国家集团气候博弈集成评估模拟系统,针对《巴黎协定》背景下各国至2050年以及2100年的减排目标,分别对减排博弈的纳什均衡、博弈不确定性以及外部政策对减排博弈的影响展开了模拟分析。研究发现：在基准情景下,全球各国将在2030年后均选择不减排策略,全球至2100年升温达到2.62℃;而模型参数的不确定性也未能突破全球零减排的纳什均衡;而仅当在全球范围内对不减排采取惩罚措施时,全球零减排的纳什均衡点被打破。但在当前《巴黎协定》减排承诺下,为达到2℃的温控目标,加大2030—2050年的减排幅度至关重要,否则全球将在2040年左右突破2℃阈值。 相似文献
18.
基于各国提交的165份国家自主贡献文件,以其中提出的减排目标为基准,尽可能充分地考虑了减排目标的范围不确定性、不同经济情景带来的碳强度减排目标不确定性、减排气体种类边界差异、碳排放达峰约束等因素,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟的方法对全球、各区域和主要经济体的温室气体排放总量、不确定度及其来源进行了定量分析.结果表明,到2030年... 相似文献
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In December 2015, China joined 190 plus nations at Paris in committing to the goal of limiting the rise in global average temperature to ‘well below’ 2°C. Carbon budget analysis indicates that goal will require not only that the European Union and US reduce their emissions by greater than 80% by 2050, but that China at least comes close to doing so as well, if any budget is to be left over for the rest of the world (RoW). Given that RoW emissions are, and will come from, low-income and emerging nations, China’s emission reduction potential is of no small consequence. In this paper, we use the Kaya identity to back out changes in the drivers of CO 2 emissions, including gross domestic product (GDP), energy intensity (E/GDP) and the carbon content of energy (C/E), the latter two calculated to be consistent with China’s long-term GDP growth rate forecasts and specified 2050 CO 2 emission reduction targets. Our results suggest that even achieving China’s highly optimistic renewable energy targets will be very far from sufficient to reduce China’s CO 2 emissions from 9.1?Gt it emitted in 2015 to much below 3?Gt by 2050. Even reducing its emissions to 5?Gt will be challenging, yet this falls far short of what is needed if the world is to meet its ‘well below’ 2°C commitment. Key policy insights Under the Paris Agreement there is great pressure on China to very substantially reduce its emissions by 2050. While China has attached great importance to renewables and nuclear energy development, even achieving the most optimistic targets would not be sufficient to reduce China’s emissions from 9.1?Gt in 2015 to much below 3?Gt by 2050. China’s emission reduction potential falls far short of what is needed if the world is to meet its Paris ‘well below’ 2°C commitment, even if the EU and US reduce their emissions to zero by 2050. Emission cuts consistent with the Paris Agreement will require that China and the world give much greater weight to advancing research and development of scalable low-, zero- and negative-carbon sources and technologies.
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