技术性贸易壁垒的Bertrand博弈分析

不同于现有研究采用最小质量标准作为技术性贸易壁垒,本文通过限定消费者对进口产品质量偏好的最低下限作为技术性贸易壁垒,并采用Boom的效用函数定义,建立了我国出口企业和发达国家企业在发达国家产品市场上进行两阶段Bertrand价格竞争的动态博弈模型,分析了发达国家设置技术性贸易壁垒的影响.结果表明,发达国家设置技术性贸易壁垒,降低了进口产品的需求,导致市场均衡价格和均衡利润的下降,但是我国出口企业的下降幅度更大.我国出口企业通过提高产品质量积极应对后,我国产品的市场需求和企业利润上升;而发达国家本国生产的产品需求和企业利润下降,但是发达国家消费者的福利却得到提高.     

技术性贸易壁垒对我国出口的影响及其对策

目前，西方发达国家实施的技术性贸易壁垒，给我国的出口贸易造成了巨大障碍，引发了许多贸易争端．如何突破这一障碍已成为亟待研究的课题。     

我国区际技术性贸易壁垒的成因与管治探讨

地方政府作为利益主体、经济主体、管理主体是我国区际贸易技术性壁垒产生的主要原因。产品市场准人机制的统一、市场质量监管的统一、技术服务网络的统一是克服区际贸易技术性壁垒,加速区域市场一体化,进而达到全国市场一体化的根本途径。     

欧美和中国对技术性贸易壁垒的研究综述

鉴于技术性贸易壁垒对世界经济和国际贸易的重要影响,各国学者都对技术性贸易壁垒问题进行了大量研究,并取得了丰硕的成果,这为相关国家和地区的政策制定提供了很好的决策参考。欧美发达国家是技术性贸易壁垒的发祥地,也最早从事技术性贸易壁垒研究。早在19世纪60年代,欧共体就意识到技术性贸易壁垒对国际贸易的限制作用,并于1969年制定了《消除商品贸易中技术性壁垒的一般性纲领》,第一次提出了在国际贸易中制定技术性贸易壁垒的贸易规则。美国随之向GATT建议拟定关于技术性贸易壁垒的协议。我国虽然遭遇技术性贸易壁垒的案例早已有之,但…     

技术性贸易壁垒预警指标体系建立及其应用

从TBT形成的原因出发,结合相关的经济、贸易、政治、技术和健康等因素在产品、行业和宏观3个层面的分析,建立了技术性贸易壁垒预警指标体系,并将其应用于基于案例推理的TBT预警系统,为TBT的预测预警提供了科学的理论和可行的方法。     

论贸易技术壁垒的性质及其经济效应

贸易技术壁垒本身具有针对性和隐蔽性强、一定的合法性以及影响面广等特点，使得贸易技术壁垒成为国际贸易中使用最广泛、效果最显著的非关税壁垒措施之一。无可争辩的事实是：有些贸易技术壁垒措施具有合理性，也为国际贸易发展创造了新的机遇，但也有一些贸易技术壁垒措施从科学技术、卫生、检疫、安全、环保、产品质量和认证等方面入手，披上合法外衣，灵活多变，使得国外厂商难以应付，实际上已经成为推行新贸易保护主义的手段，从而影响着各国经济政策的制定，因而也就直接或间接地制约着国际贸易的发展速度，并在一定程度上影响着国际贸易的商品结构、地理方向，引起不同国家间、集团问的贸易摩擦和冲突。     

技术进步与技术贸易壁垒的跨越:基于模仿视角的分析

外国技术贸易壁垒对我国出口的稳定增长产生了很大的负面影响,因此,如何突破技术贸易壁垒是我国面临的一个重要问题.尽管许多研究提出我国应该依靠科技进步提高本国产品的技术含量从而跨越这一技术壁垒,但此类政策建议尚缺乏理论依据.为此本文将技术模仿因素引入包含商品连续统的动态李嘉图模型,从理论层面证明了提高技术模仿率在技术进步中的重要作用及对我国进入技术含量和质量标准更高的产品生产领域、跨越发达国家的技术贸易壁垒的积极影响.     

Development of a health economic model to evaluate the potential benefits of optimal serum potassium management in patients with heart failure

Abstract

Aims: Patients with heart failure are at increased risk of hyperkalemia, particularly when treated with renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) agents. This study developed a model to quantify the potential health and economic value associated with sustained potassium management and optimal RAASi therapy in heart failure patients.

Materials and methods: A patient-level, fixed-time increment stochastic simulation model was designed to characterize the progression of heart failure through New York Heart Association functional classes, and predict associations between serum potassium levels, RAASi use, and consequent long-term outcomes. Following internal and external validation exercises, model analyses sought to quantify the health and economic benefits of optimizing both serum potassium levels and RAASi therapy in heart failure patients. Analyses were conducted using a UK payer perspective, independent of costs and utilities related to pharmacological potassium management.

Results: Validation against multiple datasets demonstrated the predictive capability of the model. Compared to those who discontinued RAASi to manage serum potassium, patients with normokalemia and ongoing RAASi therapy benefited from longer life expectancy (+1.38 years), per-patient quality-adjusted life year gains (+0.53 QALYs), cost savings (£110), and associated net monetary benefit (£10,679 at £20,000 per QALY gained) over a lifetime horizon. The predicted value of sustained potassium management and ongoing RAASi treatment was largely driven by reduced mortality and hospitalization risks associated with optimal RAASi therapy.

Limitations: Several modeling assumptions were made to account for a current paucity of published literature; however, ongoing refinement and validation of the model will ensure its continued accuracy as the clinical landscape of hyperkalemia evolves.

Conclusions: Predictions generated by this novel modeling approach highlight the value of sustained potassium management to avoid hyperkalemia, enable RAASi therapy, and improve long-term health economic outcomes in patients with heart failure.     

Impact of macroeconomic factors and country risk ratings on GCC stock markets: evidence from a dynamic panel threshold model with regime switching

This study examines the non-linear relationship between stock markets in GCC countries and their country risk ratings as well as with major macroeconomic factors. Based on a dynamic panel threshold model with two and four regimes, the results provide evidence of short-term asymmetry between first-lagged GCC stock returns and the performance of GCC stock markets. In addition, only the financial risk (FR) rating has a significant positive effect on the performance of GCC stock markets according to the prevailing regimes for the GCC lagged returns and the Brent oil market. Among the macroeconomic factors, improvements in the global stock markets, the MSCI Global Islamic Index, and the oil price increased the performance of GCC stock markets, whereas increases in the gold price, the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill rate, and the U.S. Treasury bond rate reduced the performance of the GCC stock markets. These results have important implications for investors, policymakers, and portfolio managers.     

对外贸易对经济增长的实证分析——基于上海数据的分析与检验

对外贸易对经济增长的影响是目前经济学界的一个热点问题。本文选择典型对外贸易区——上海进行分析,利用1985-2004年上海市进出口和GDP的年度经济数据,借助协整检验、误差修正模型等方法,从不同的角度研究了对外贸易与经济增长之间的动态关系,定量地刻画了对外贸易在经济增长中的作用大小。实证结果表明:进出口对经济增长的贡献滞后一年才显著;短期内,出口比进口对经济增长的贡献大,但在长期,进口比出口对经济增长的贡献要大的多。     

Economic impact of introducing TYRX amongst patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction undergoing implanted cardiac device procedures: a retrospective model based cost analysis

Background and aims: Infection is a serious and expensive complication of Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device (CIED) procedures. A retrospective based cost analysis was performed to estimate Trust level savings of using the TYRX antibacterial envelope as a primary prevention measure against infection in a tertiary referral centre in South London, UK.

Methods: A retrospective cohort of heart failure patients with reduced ejection fraction undergoing Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator (ICD) or Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) procedures were evaluated. Decision-analytic modelling was performed to determine economic savings of using the envelope during CIED procedure vs CIED procedure alone.

Results: Over a 12?month follow-up period following CIED procedure, the observed infection rate was 3.14% (n?=?5/159). The average cost of a CIED infection inpatient admission was £41,820 and, further to economic analysis, the additional costs attributable to infection was calculated at £62,213.94. A cost saving of £624 per patient by using TYRX during CIED procedure as a primary preventative measure against infection was estimated.

Conclusions: TYRX would be a cost-saving treatment option amongst heart failure patients undergoing ICD and CRT device procedures based on analysis in the local geographical area of South London. If upscaled to the UK population, we estimate potential cost savings for the National Health Service (NHS).