基于GPS应变、地震应变率与震源应力场对帕米尔高原现今构造变形特征的分析

研究帕米尔高原的构造变形特征对于理解印度板块向北推挤过程中的应变分配方式以及应力转换模式具有重要的意义.本文利用区域GPS应变场、地震应变场与震源应力场分析帕米尔高原的构造形变特征.主要结论为:(1)该区域变形主要以NNW-SSE或近N-S向的挤压为主,在高原内部伴有明显的近ENE-WSW或E-W向拉张,应力方向在帕米尔高原与塔吉克盆地区域呈现逆时针旋转的趋势,而在塔里木盆地则显示几乎与帕米尔高原的一致的应力状态,这可能与两侧盆地块体的强度差异有关.(2)安德森断层参数A∅显示帕米尔高原北缘与西侧区域为逆断层应力状态,在高原内部为正断层应力状态,这与GPS应变的结果显示的应变主要集中在主帕米尔断裂与阿莱谷地附近而在高原内部应变较低是一致的,另外应力在喀喇昆仑断裂北段的方向基本平行于断层走向,以及断层北端较低的滑动速率,这说明了地壳挤压缩短可能是帕米尔高原主要的的构造变形特征,并不支持由于边界走滑断裂导致的应变分异或者块体挤出的模式.(3)综合考虑地震应变方向与SHmax从帕米尔北部NNW-SSE方向到天山北部的近N-S方向的转换,GPS应变方向在帕米尔高原两侧盆地都存在不同程度的旋转,应力场安德森参数A∅显示的应力状态以及SKS的结果显示的近ENE-WSW方向,我们认为印度板块向北推挤与天山造山带碰撞导致帕米尔高原不对称的径向逆冲是帕米尔高原现今构造变形的主要成因与构造模式.     

Characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation in Japan as deduced from frequency distribution of maximum shear strain rate

In order to study characteristics of horizontal crustal strains, we divide the Japanese Islands into 14 tectonic provinces consistent with the suggestion given byMatsuda (1990). We calculate frequency distribution of strain rates using the results of the Precise Control Survey initiated by the Geographical Survey Institute in 1973. This survey is a revision of old first- and second-order triangulation networks by trilateration. The principal axes and principal strains inside all the geodetic triangles are deduced from the comparison of the old triangulation and the new trilateration networks. The maximum shear strain rates are calculated by dividing the accumulated strains with the time intervals. The frequency distribution of strain rates is counted for each tectonic province and for the entire Japanese Islands. It is proved that the maximum shear strain rate with highest frequency ranges from 0.10–0.15 microstrain/a for 4409 data in the Japanese Islands. The mean value of the strain rates throughout the Japanese Islands is deduced to be 0.18 microstrain/a. We also calculated a mean value of strain rates for each tectonic province. Comparison is made between mean geodetic strain rates in the provinces and Quaternary strain rates estimated by geomorphic data. It is found that 0.3–0.4 microstrain/a of the highest order strain rate is now prevailing in the Izu province, the south Fossa-Magna collision zone, and some special provinces along the eastern part of the Japan Sea coast.     

湖南地震视应变与地震的对应关系分析

利用湖南省地震台网记录到的资料,研究了1970年以来湖南地区五次ML≥4.0级地震的地震视应变场的分布和时空演化特征.ML≥4.0以下的地震视应变与震级相关性较小,ML≥4.0以上地震的视应变值随震级增加呈非线形快速增大,说明:湖南地区地震视应变的时空演变与地震具有较好的对应关系.     

用应变地震观测求解震源矩张量的基本原理

震源机制解,即对地震矩张量的推断,对于地震研究具有至关重要的意义.应变地震观测是张量观测,与摆式地震仪的位移矢量观测不同,可以为地震研究提供新的数据源.本文讨论用应变地震观测求解震源矩张量的基本原理.在距离震源足够远的地方,地震波可以看成平面波,其性质决定于震源矩张量.假设平面地震波的应变张量可以由震源矩张量通过坐标变换计算得到,就可以通过观测应变地震波求解震源机制.这个假设至少对于双力偶震源机制是成立的.由此可以证明,在理想的无限介质中,只要有两个以上不同地点的应变地震波观测,就可以解出震源矩张量.这为解决震源机制问题提供了新的方法.目前的地震矩张量求解方法需要两方面的条件：或者需要很多观测点（例如体波反演）,或者需要长周期地震波资料（例如面波反演）.这些方法只适用于分析比较大的地震.对于小震,因为通常其震中周围不会有足够多的摆式地震仪观测点观测到其地震波,而地震波周期又短,难以利用传统方法给出可靠的震源机制解,所以只需少数观测点就能求解震源矩张量的新方法特别有意义.用应变地震观测求解震源机制,可以给出更为精确的结果.

     

2017年九寨沟地震所受历史地震黏弹性库仑应力作用及其后续对周边断层地震危险性的影响

首先对2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震周边断裂活动和历史地震特征进行了阐述;然后利用黏弹性地壳模型,计算了1933年叠溪地震、1976年松潘震群和2008年汶川地震对2017年九寨沟地震的同震和震后库仑应力作用.该结果显示1933年叠溪地震对九寨沟地震具有延缓作用,而1976年松潘震群和2008年汶川地震对九寨沟地震的黏弹性库仑应力作用为正;随着下地壳和上地幔黏弹性物质的持续作用,前述几次地震总的黏弹性库仑应力在九寨沟地震破裂中心点处负的库仑应力逐渐减弱,而在破裂北段这些库仑应力逐渐转为正值,并促进了九寨沟地震的发生.本文也计算了九寨沟地震后对周边断层的库仑影响,并将此影响值转换为对断层能量积累的影响时间上,结果显示塔藏断裂带西段和中段在内的多条断裂带受到黏弹性库仑应力影响时间值超过10年.将库仑应力影响时间值加入到部分已知离逝时间的断层段上,也得到了这些断层段的未来30年特征地震发生概率.最终结果认为玛沁断裂带、玛曲断裂带、哈南—稻畦子断裂中段和西段等断层段的强震危险性需要重点关注.

     

新疆于田两次7. 3 级地震之后南北地震带Benioff 应变比分布特征研究

利用中国地震台网的地震目录,分别计算新疆于田2008年3月21日7.3级、2014年2月12日7.3级地震前后30天南北地震带Benioff应变比。结果表明,2008年7.3级地震后1年内,后续5级以上地震均发生在Benioff应变比高值区域附近或者高、低值交界区域,强震活动与Benioff应变比的高值区域存在明显对应关系。这反映了相应区域应力水平可能较高,于田地震的发生导致这些应力高值区容易释放小地震,研究结果对该区域后续强震的发生有一定指示意义。     

Seismic risk of circum-Pacific earthquakes: II. Extreme values using Gumbel's third distribution and the relationship with strain energy release

In a previous paper (Makropoulos andBurton, 1983) the seismic risk of the circum-Pacific belt was examined using a whole process technique reduced to three representative parameters related to the physical release of strain energy, these are:M ₁, the annual modal magnitude determined using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship;M ₂, the magnitude equivalent to the total strain energy release rate per annum, andM ₃, the upper bound magnitude equivalent to the maximum strain energy release in a region.The risk analysis is extended here using the part process statistical model of Gumbel's IIIrd asymptotic distribution of extreme values. The circum-Pacific is chosen being a complete earthquake data set, and the stability postulate on which asymptotic distributions of extremes are deduced to give similar results to those obtained from whole process or exact distributions of extremes is successfully checked. Additionally, when Gumbel III asymptotic distribution curve fitting is compared with Gumbel I using reduced chi-squared it is seen to be preferable in all cases and it also allows extensions to an upper-bounded range of magnitude occurrences. Examining the regional seismicity generates several seismic risk results, for example, the annual mode for all regions is greater thanm(1)=7.0, with the maximum being in the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka region atm(1)=7.6. Overall, the most hazardous areas are situated in this northwestern region and also diagonally opposite in the southeastern circum-Pacific. Relationships are established between the Gumbel III parameters and quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , quantities notionally similar toM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ although is shown to be systematically larger thanM; thereby giving a physical link through strain energy release to seismic risk statistics. Inall regions of the circum-Pacific similar results are obtained forM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ and the notionally corresponding statistical quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , demonstrating that the relationships obtained are valid over a wide range of seismotectonic enviroments.     

基于密集台阵研究2019辽宁抚顺M2.4矿震震源参数

分析矿震破裂机制及微震的时空分布能够为矿区灾害评估提供更多的有效信息.本研究基于密集台阵观测对2019 年11 月12 日辽宁抚顺2.4 级矿震开展震源参数研究,震源机制解显示地震破裂包含明显的非双力偶分量,表现为体积压缩的塌陷机制,且震源深度较浅,最佳拟合矩心深度为0.6 km.同时,对 11 月3 日—25 日记录...     

龙门山断裂带深部构造变形的黏弹性模拟及其与强震活动的关联性探讨

根据龙门山断裂带地区的主要构造特征,建立该地区的有限元模型,同时考虑地下深处的黏弹性蠕动和不同部位间的接触关系,模拟计算了研究区在强震轮回活动中的时间演化历程.模拟结果表明:龙门山断裂带深处的滑动速率比浅表的滑动速率大,龙门山断裂带周围是相对容易发生应变积累的地区,其5~19 km深度也是高应力聚集成核区,随时间推移的应力集中程度加剧而引发强震.本模拟分析证实了重复地震观测所揭示的龙门山断裂带存在深浅活动速率差异的现象,这在一定程度上可以解释出乎预料的汶川MW7.9地震的孕育机理.综合分析研究提出:应充分利用重复地震这一天然的"地下蠕变计(subsurface creepmeter)"来探测深部构造变形的活动,为强震危险性分析提供必要的"原位(in situ)观测"约束信息.     

天山地震带境内外主要断层滑动速率和地震矩亏损分布特征研究

本文搜集、整理1998—2013年境内外天山及周边地区(包括中国新疆、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦等)500余个GPS观测点数据,采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对其进行解算和平差计算,并利用了弹性块体模型计算区域块体边界断层闭锁深度、块体运动参数和主要活动断层的滑动速率.研究结果表明,东、西昆仑地震带闭锁深度最大(19 km),其次为南天山地区,闭锁深度达到17 km,闭锁深度最小的为哈萨克斯坦(13 km);各块体相对欧亚板块作顺(逆)时针旋转,旋转速率最大( -0.7208±0.0034°/Ma)为塔里木块体,其围绕欧拉极(38.295±0.019°N, 95.078±0.077°E)顺时针方向转动,旋转速率最小为天山东段(0.108±0.1210°/Ma),而天山东、西两段无论是在旋转速率上还是在旋转方向上都有显著的区别.西昆仑断裂带的滑动速率(10.2±2.8 mm·a-1)最大,南天山西段滑动速率为9.5±1.8 mm·a-1,其东段为3.9±1.1 mm·a-1;而北天山东段滑动速率(4.7±1.1 mm·a-1)高于北天山西段(3.7±0.9 mm·a-1);塔里木盆地南缘的阿尔金断裂带平均滑动速率为7.6±1.4 mm·a-1,其结果与阿勒泰断裂带滑动速率(7.6±1.6 mm·a-1)基本相当;天山断裂带运动方式主要以挤压为主,而阿尔金、昆仑、阿尔泰以及哈萨克斯坦断裂带均是以走滑运动方式为主,除阿勒泰断裂带走滑方式为右旋以外,其余几个断裂带均为左旋运动.最后,利用主要断裂带的滑动速率计算出各地震带的地震矩变化率以及1900年以来地震矩累计变化量,其结果与利用地震目录计算所得到的地震矩进行比较,判定出各地震带上地震矩均衡分布状态,研究结果显示阿尔金、西昆仑、东昆仑和北天山东段断裂带存在较大的地震矩亏损,均具有发生7级以上地震的可能性,南天山东段和哈萨克斯坦断裂带地震矩亏损相对较小,具有孕育6~7级地震的潜能,而天山西段、阿勒泰地震矩呈现出盈余状态,不具在1~3年内有发生强震的可能.     

有限元数值模拟龙门山断裂带地震循环的地壳变形演化

现今地壳变形数据显示横跨龙门山断裂带的地壳缩短速率低于3 mm·a^-1,如此小的地壳缩短速率与龙门山断裂带附近的长期地质造山（平均高程约4.5 km）形成强烈对比.我们构建并使用了一个二维平面应变黏弹塑性有限元模型来模拟龙门山断裂带的地震循环位移变化,从而探讨了短期变形与长期变形之间的关系.模型模拟了地震循环的各个阶段（震间加载期、同震瞬间和震后黏性松弛调整期）以及多个地震循环（万年尺度）的地表变形,揭示了变形在地震循环中是如何累积、释放、调整以及最终形成永久变形导致了造山.模拟结果显示,岩石圈流变结构以及断层几何形态均对地震循环的地表位移变化有着显著的影响.经过多个地震循环,青藏高原东缘整体产生水平缩短与增厚抬升,而四川盆地基本保持稳定,区域的水平缩短主要由断层位错及青藏东缘的缩短抬升来调解,造成了青藏东部与川西盆地的差异抬升.研究结果将地震循环时间尺度的短期变形与长期地质造山联系起来,帮助我们理解青藏高原东部的隆升机制.

     

基于断层活动资料的鄂尔多斯块体周缘未来30年大地震危险性研究

鄂尔多斯块体周缘历史上多次发生大地震,同时该地区人口稠密,城市群集中,有必要分析该地区未来30年的大地震危险性,为该地区的应急备灾工作提供参考.本文利用块体周缘活动断层的滑动速率、历史地震古地震等资料,建立了考虑大地震发生率的时间非平稳性质和大地震危险性近断层分布特征的地震危险性模型.计算了块体周缘未来30年Ⅷ度地震动的超越概率分布图,并同《中国地震动参数区划图》的地震危险性模型进行了比较.本文研究认为,由断层滑动速率估算的断层地震活动性与基于地震目录统计的地震活动性总体差别不大,但断层源的地震危险性在沿断层破裂面地区增大明显.结果认为,鄂尔多斯块体周缘未来30年地震危险性最高的地区在块体西南缘,六盘山东麓断裂和会宁—义岗断裂及周边地区是未来30年地震危险性较高的地区.

     

鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征

为研究鄂尔多斯周缘地区中强地震发生前地震矩加速释放时空特征,选取去丛集后的地震目录,基于地震矩释放程度m值,对1981年以来鄂尔多斯周缘地区10例MS≥5.5中强地震进行二维时空扫描,提取与地震矩加速释放特征相关的时空尺度作为矩释放程度时空扫描模型参数,以3个月为扫描步长,对震前12个月m值及累积Benioff应变释放进行拟合计算。结果显示,震前破裂成核点附近存在显著的AMR现象,7次震例存在累积Benioff应变加速释放特征,说明鄂尔多斯周缘地区MS≥5.5地震发生前AMR现象存在一定普遍性,应用矩加速时空扫描方法具有一定优势,但仍需结合其他方法进行综合分析。     

青海门源6.9级地震同震及震前GNSS变形特征分析

北京时间2022年1月8日1点45分,在我国青海省门源县发生了6.9级地震.通过震中附近陆态网络GNSS连续观测数据得到的同震位移场显示,距离震中最近的QHME站同震位移最大,EW向达到20.31 mm,SW向达到-35.45 mm,震中附近五个站的同震位移反映出此次地震的左旋同震破裂特征;GNSS站间基线时间序列结果...     

中国大陆6级以上强震前的地震应变场研究

以地震应变场作为地震活动的变量,通过自然正交函数展开方法,计算了中国大陆6级以上强震前的地震应变场,提取出震前时间因子的异常变化.计算结果分析发现大地震前时间因子在平稳背景上会出现突跳上升或突跳下降变化,且震前地震应变场前4个典型场中至少有3个典型场会出现异常变化,具有多分量显示异常的特点,而异常出现的最早时间大约在震前3年,并且一些地震前出现短临的时间因子异常变化特征.通过震例研究表明用地震应变场分析地震活动异常,提取的时间因子异常结果比应用地震能量场更具有独特的优越性,并讨论了应变场与能量场的差异.

     

青藏高原东缘中南部主要活动断裂滑动速率及其地震矩亏损

作为青藏高原南东向“挤出逃逸”的重要通道,青藏高原东缘中南部具有大型走滑断裂广泛发育和地震活动强烈而频繁的特征.本文使用线性球面块体模型理论,在前人活动地块研究的基础上吸收新近研究成果,建立研究区三维块体几何模型,使用1999—2007年的GPS数据反演得到青藏高原东缘中南部主要活动断裂滑动速率.使用反演得到的滑动速率和最优断层闭锁深度估算了川滇菱形块体主要边界和其内部断裂的地震矩积累,并利用历史强震目录估算了地震矩释放,在比较两者差异的基础上得到了研究区地震矩亏损（未释放的地震矩）较大的断层和断层段,该结果可以作为研究区强震中长期危险性研究的参考.     

张渤带洞体应变参数解算及结果分析

采用张渤带2002年以来的洞体应变观测资料,首先利用Venedikov调和分析方法计算带内各个台站洞体应变测项的潮汐因子和相位滞后,并以潮汐因子的稳定性对观测资料进行了质量评价.其后,以怀来台伸缩仪为例讨论了3分量和2分量观测解算平面应变参数的模型及其适用性,结果表明二者的相关系数在0.9以上.在此基础上,选取张渤带上资料较稳定的16个洞体应变台站资料进行了应变参数时间序列计算,并对华北M5.0地震前应变参数同步变化现象进行了总结.最后对比了洞体应变与GPS应变的差异,并分析了可能的原因.     

Late Holocene slip rate and average recurrence interval of great earthquakes on the Shangzhi segment of the Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone,northeastern China: Constraints from paleo‐earthquakes and historical written records

The Yilan‐Yitong Fault Zone (YYFZ) is considered to be the key branch of the Tancheng‐Lujiang Fault Zone (TLFZ) in northeastern China. Although the Mesozoic and early Cenozoic deformation of the YYFZ has been studied intensively over the past century, few estimates of slip rate and recurrence interval of large earthquakes in the late Quaternary, which are the two most important parameters for understanding the potential seismic hazard of this crucial structure, were obtained. Based on integrated interpretations of high resolution satellite images and detailed geologic and geomorphic mapping, linear landforms were identified, including fault scarps and troughs, along the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ, which exceeds 25 km in length. Synthesized results of trench excavations and differential GPS measurements of terrace surfaces indicate that two events (E1, E2) occurred along the Shangzhi segment during the late Holocene, which resulted in 3.2 ±0.1 m of total vertical co‐seismic displacement with clear features of thrust motion. ¹⁴C dating of samples suggests that event E1 occurred between 440 ±30 years BP and 180 ±30 years BP and that event E2 occurred between 4 090 ±30 years BP and 3 880 ±30 years BP, which indicates that the minimum vertical slip rate of the Shangzhi segment of the YYFZ has been approximately 0.8 ±0.03 mm/year during the late Holocene. Constraints from paleo events and the slip rate suggest that the average recurrence interval of major earthquakes on the YYFZ is 3 800 ±200 years. Historical documents in Korea show that event E1 possibly corresponds to the earthquake that occurred in AD 1810 (the Qing Dynasty in Chinese history) in the Ningguta area, which had surface‐wave magnitude (Ms) of 6.8–7.5. Studies of kinematics show that the right‐lateral strike‐slip with a reverse component has been dominant along the YYFZ during the late Holocene.     

Verifying adequacy of the seismic deformation method by using real examples of earthquake damage

In a seismic design, the dynamic loads are generally dependent on the inertial interaction caused by earthquake. But for the foundations embedded in soil, the dynamic loads are influenced by both the inertial and kinematic interactions among superstructure, foundation and soil. Especially, when a foundation is embedded in soft surface ground, the effects due to the kinematic interaction increase and should be considered in seismic design. For this reason, a method called seismic deformation method (SDM), which is suitable for an intensive earthquake motion (level 2 earthquake motion), has been stipulated recently in a new design code called Seismic Design Code for railway structures (the Railway Code, drawn up by Railway Technical Research Institute, Japan, 1999) [Railway Technical Research Institute. Seismic Design Code for railway structures. Tokyo: Maruzen; 1999]. In order to grasp the suitability of the SDM to actual structures, pile foundations, which experienced the Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake, were taken as the objects for investigations. Comparison studies between the SDM analysis and reconnaissance were conducted. As a result, the adequacy of the SDM to actual foundations was confirmed to prove good agreement between the two results from the viewpoint of engineering practice.In addition, determination of indices for seismic-performance evaluation and speculation of damage mechanism of the foundations are also discussed in this paper.     

An algorithm for the optimum distribution of a regional seismic network — II. An analysis of the accuracy of location of local earthquakes depending on the number of seismic stations

Summary Seven optimal networks consisting of 4 to 10 stations are compared for a given region, where velocity-depth profiles and the distribution of seismic intensity are known. Assuming that the standard error of arrival time is _t =0.05 s and the standard errors of the parameters of velocity-depth profiles are equal to 5% of their values, the average standard errors of the origin time and focus coordinates are estimated. The application of optimum methods to the planning of seismic networks in the Lublin Coal Basin is presented, and maps of standard errors of origin time , depth and epicenter ( _xy ) for the case of an optimum network of 6 seismic stations are given.