Characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation in Japan as deduced from frequency distribution of maximum shear strain rate

In order to study characteristics of horizontal crustal strains, we divide the Japanese Islands into 14 tectonic provinces consistent with the suggestion given byMatsuda (1990). We calculate frequency distribution of strain rates using the results of the Precise Control Survey initiated by the Geographical Survey Institute in 1973. This survey is a revision of old first- and second-order triangulation networks by trilateration. The principal axes and principal strains inside all the geodetic triangles are deduced from the comparison of the old triangulation and the new trilateration networks. The maximum shear strain rates are calculated by dividing the accumulated strains with the time intervals. The frequency distribution of strain rates is counted for each tectonic province and for the entire Japanese Islands. It is proved that the maximum shear strain rate with highest frequency ranges from 0.10–0.15 microstrain/a for 4409 data in the Japanese Islands. The mean value of the strain rates throughout the Japanese Islands is deduced to be 0.18 microstrain/a. We also calculated a mean value of strain rates for each tectonic province. Comparison is made between mean geodetic strain rates in the provinces and Quaternary strain rates estimated by geomorphic data. It is found that 0.3–0.4 microstrain/a of the highest order strain rate is now prevailing in the Izu province, the south Fossa-Magna collision zone, and some special provinces along the eastern part of the Japan Sea coast.     

湖南地震视应变与地震的对应关系分析

利用湖南省地震台网记录到的资料,研究了1970年以来湖南地区五次ML≥4.0级地震的地震视应变场的分布和时空演化特征.ML≥4.0以下的地震视应变与震级相关性较小,ML≥4.0以上地震的视应变值随震级增加呈非线形快速增大,说明:湖南地区地震视应变的时空演变与地震具有较好的对应关系.     

Seismic risk of circum-Pacific earthquakes: II. Extreme values using Gumbel's third distribution and the relationship with strain energy release

In a previous paper (Makropoulos andBurton, 1983) the seismic risk of the circum-Pacific belt was examined using a whole process technique reduced to three representative parameters related to the physical release of strain energy, these are:M ₁, the annual modal magnitude determined using the Gutenberg-Richter relationship;M ₂, the magnitude equivalent to the total strain energy release rate per annum, andM ₃, the upper bound magnitude equivalent to the maximum strain energy release in a region.The risk analysis is extended here using the part process statistical model of Gumbel's IIIrd asymptotic distribution of extreme values. The circum-Pacific is chosen being a complete earthquake data set, and the stability postulate on which asymptotic distributions of extremes are deduced to give similar results to those obtained from whole process or exact distributions of extremes is successfully checked. Additionally, when Gumbel III asymptotic distribution curve fitting is compared with Gumbel I using reduced chi-squared it is seen to be preferable in all cases and it also allows extensions to an upper-bounded range of magnitude occurrences. Examining the regional seismicity generates several seismic risk results, for example, the annual mode for all regions is greater thanm(1)=7.0, with the maximum being in the Japan, Kurile, Kamchatka region atm(1)=7.6. Overall, the most hazardous areas are situated in this northwestern region and also diagonally opposite in the southeastern circum-Pacific. Relationships are established between the Gumbel III parameters and quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , quantities notionally similar toM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ although is shown to be systematically larger thanM; thereby giving a physical link through strain energy release to seismic risk statistics. Inall regions of the circum-Pacific similar results are obtained forM ₁,M ₂ andM ₃ and the notionally corresponding statistical quantitiesm ₁(1),X ₂ and , demonstrating that the relationships obtained are valid over a wide range of seismotectonic enviroments.     

利用地震活动空间扫描异常最大密度区预报东南沿海地震带西段中强震地点的探讨

应变释放∑E1/2、小震调制比Rm值、缺震M、b值、G-R关系偏离度η值和地震非均匀度GL值等项地震活动参数空间扫描结果对于东南沿海地震带西段及其邻近地区的中强震发生地点具有一定的预报能力.根据该区已发生的10次Ms≥4.9级地震震前的空间异常分布初步给出了这6项参数的异常判据,并认为未来中强震所在区域应基本同时满足应变释放、小震调制比和缺震的异常指标;同时,未来中强震应发生在这6项异常密度最大的地区.研究结果表明,10次中强震中有7次地震位于异常最大密度区内,其中有5次地震的异常密度达到5项以上.