模糊信息下多种类应急物资多周期分配优化模型

考虑灾害的突发性、信息获取的不完全性以及应急救援的紧迫性，引入区间数描述应急物资供给与需求的模糊不确定性，引入三角模糊数刻画路网容量受限情况下每周期的最大物资运输总量，综合考虑灾害、灾区、灾民以及物资等多重因素，引入延迟系数，以应急物资分配的总延迟时间最小化和总系统损失最小化为目标，构建模糊信息条件下考虑多需求点、多配送中心、多物资、多周期、多目标的应急物资动态分配优化决策模型，分析了区间目标函数、区间模糊与三角模糊约束条件的清晰化方法，采用基于二维欧式距离客观赋权模糊算法求解模型，并以青海玉树地震为例对所提出模型的有效性和可行性进行验证。结果表明：所提出的模型能够最大程度地权衡延迟时间与系统损失，形成多周期最优的物资分配方案；现实多周期应急物资分配，时间并不是唯一考虑的因素，需要综合考虑不同应急周期的灾情、灾区、灾民和物资等多种因素对系统总损失造成的影响；重视时间偏好系数，可能使系统总损失增大，表明单一考虑时间偏好系数和损失偏好系数均具有片面性，应该把握选择"度"，发挥二者结合的相互促进作用；物资分配方案基于决策者偏好，并考虑每周期不同需求点的易损性、重要性、需求紧急性以及各类应急物资的重要性与时效性差异参数，有利于提高多周期决策的柔性和现实适用性。     

多受灾点应急物资动态多阶段分配模型研究

针对传统的单阶段物资分配模型可能导致应急物资分配的局部冗余或短缺、高成本、系统无法达到全局最优等现实情况,通过在指数效用函数中引入灾民物资需求的比例短缺测度公平,以物资短缺的延迟损失最小化与物资分配的总成本最小化为目标构建考虑多集散点、多配送中心和多受灾点的三级配送网络的应急物资动态多阶段分配模型,设计了目标转化与线性近似相结合的模型求解方法,并通过算例对所提出模型的有效性和可行性进行了验证。结果表明：所提出的多阶段模型能够兼顾物资分配的效率与公平,最大程度地降低物资短缺的延迟损失以及物资分配的总成本;运用灾民物资需求的比例短缺量化公平,避免了由于各受灾点的需求量差异而对公平分配产生的影响,可以使各受灾点即使在应急救援初期物资有限、中期物资持续供不应求等情况下,仍然能够在每阶段获得一定比率的所需物资,进而避免较大的物资短缺损失,确保多受灾点之间多阶段应急物资分配的公平性,更符合灾害救援实际,可为现实大规模灾害应急救援物资多阶段分配提供决策支持。     

管理层股权激励、风险承担与资本配置效率

在对国内外相关研究进行梳理的基础上,以1999年至2012年中国沪、深股市非金融上市公司为研究对象,使用公司股票收益率的波动衡量风险承担水平,使用公司投资对边际Q的敏感性衡量资本配置效率,深入分析管理层股权激励对公司风险承担的影响及其内在作用机理,探讨公司风险承担对资本配置效率的影响以及股权激励对这种影响的作用,借助Sta-ta统计分析工具,利用相关性分析和多元回归分析方法进行实证检验.研究结果表明,股权激励有助于管理层克服风险规避倾向,促使管理层更注重公司长期利益,降低公司代理问题,进而促进公司风险承担;而公司风险承担水平的提高有利于公司对投资机会的充分利用,进而提高资本配置效率;与非股权激励公司相比,公司风险承担对资本配置效率的促进作用在股权激励公司更为明显.研究结果丰富和拓展了管理层激励和公司风险承担的相关研究,为公司完善相关激励机制以及应重视对风险性项目的投资具有重要意义.     

平战结合下的公路养护多资源布局问题研究

平战结合是突发事件应急管理的重要原则之一.以公路养护中的平时资源和应急资源的布局问题为研究对象,考虑到日常养护点的选址和资源配置要满足工作的便利性和不同养护点之间工作量的均衡性,把应急资源放置在日常养护点上,既节省管理成本又能满足及时调度的要求,建立一个多目标的混合整数规划模型同时对日常和应急2种资源进行布局,并设计了算法,最后给出了算例.     

Cost of Equity in Homeland Security Resource Allocation in the Face of a Strategic Attacker

Hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent in homeland security since September 11, 2001. Many mathematical models have been developed to study strategic interactions between governments (defenders) and terrorists (attackers). However, few studies have considered the tradeoff between equity and efficiency in homeland security resource allocation. In this article, we fill this gap by developing a novel model in which a government allocates defensive resources among multiple potential targets, while reserving a portion of defensive resources (represented by the equity coefficient) for equal distribution (according to geographical areas, population, density, etc.). Such a way to model equity is one of many alternatives, but was directly inspired by homeland security resource allocation practice. The government is faced with a strategic terrorist (adaptive adversary) whose attack probabilities are endogenously determined in the model. We study the effect of the equity coefficient on the optimal defensive resource allocations and the corresponding expected loss. We find that the cost of equity (in terms of increased expected loss) increases convexly in the equity coefficient. Furthermore, such cost is lower when: (a) government uses per‐valuation equity; (b) the cost‐effectiveness coefficient of defense increases; and (c) the total defense budget increases. Our model, results, and insights could be used to assist policy making.     

基于场景分析的应急资源布局模型研究

突发事件越来越频繁地发生,对应急物资保障提出了更高的要求,好的资源布局方案对地区需求的保障程度至关重要。本文利用场景分析的方法,给出一个适于多点需求,多点救助的应急资源布局多目标规划模型,并根据资源的具体配置情况决定选址,以期为选址决策者提供选址的依据。求解该问题时,针对模型设计了算法,并进行了算例分析。     

应急储备库选址与资源配置随机规划模型研究

研究在突发事件多发区域进行应急储备库的选址与资源配置规划问题.假定了若干随机的突发事件情景,每种情景下物资需求量与运输时间不确定,结合情景分析法,建立了一定应急限制期条件下的两阶段随机规划模型,并设计了混合遗传算法对模型进行求解.研究结果不仅找到了最优的选址与资源配置方案,而且发现牺牲需求满足率与应急限制期带来的成本降低是不经济的.     

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Fire Protection Resource Allocation in the United States: Models and a 1980–2014 Case Study

The estimated cost of fire in the United States is about $329 billion a year, yet there are gaps in the literature to measure the effectiveness of investment and to allocate resources optimally in fire protection. This article fills these gaps by creating data‐driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows high R² values (≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national‐level or state‐level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity‐efficiency trade‐off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational‐level RA. This model and its numerical analyses provide techniques and insights to aid the strategic decision‐making process. The results from this model are used to calculate fire risk scores for various geographic regions, which can be used as an indicator of fire risk. A case study of federal fire grant allocation is used to validate and show the utility of the optimal RA model. The results also identify potential underinvestment and overinvestment in fire protection in certain regions. This article presents scenarios in which the model presented outperforms the existing RA scheme, when compared in terms of the correlation of resources allocated with actual number of fire incidents. This article provides some novel insights to policymakers and analysts in fire protection and safety that would help in mitigating economic costs and saving lives.