Prediction of maximum magnitude and original time of reservoir induced seismicity

Introduction Prediction of RIS includes earlier stage prediction and seismic tendency prediction. In earlier stage, the prediction is to predict the possibility and maximum magnitude of RIS before reservoir are built up. It is made up on the basis of geological condition and the definite method and the statistical model method are usually used. The definite method by analogy with geological condi-tion is to analyze and sum up the main conditions of RIS. Using the main conditions compared w…     

Prediction of the largest peak nonlinear seismic response of asymmetric buildings under bi-directional excitation using pushover analyses

A simplified procedure is proposed to predict the largest peak seismic response of an asymmetric building to horizontal bi-directional ground motion, acting at an arbitrary angle of incidence. The main characteristics of the proposed procedure is as follows. (1) The properties of two independent equivalent single-degree-of-freedom models are determined according to the principal direction of the first modal response in each nonlinear stage, rather than according to the fixed axis based on the mode shape in the elastic stage; the principal direction of the first modal response in each nonlinear stage is determined based on pushover analysis results. (2) The bi-directional horizontal seismic input is simulated as identical spectra of the two horizontal components, and the contribution of each modal response is directly estimated based on the unidirectional response in the principal direction of each. (3) The drift demand at each frame is determined based on four pushover analyses considering the combination of bi-directional excitations. In the numerical example, nonlinear time-history analyses of six four-story torsionally stiff (TS) asymmetric buildings are carried out considering various directions of seismic inputs, and these results are compared with the predicted results. The results show that the proposed procedure satisfactorily predicts the largest peak response displacement at the flexible-side frame of a TS asymmetric building.     

Local magnitude,surface wave magnitude and seismic energy

Summary The local magnitude M_L at the seismological station Pruhonice (PRU) was converted into surface wave magnitude M_S using the formula M_S=–3.2+1.45 M_L and the seismic wave energy was estimated using the relation log E (Joule)=1.2+2.0 M_L. It was proposed to apply the same conversion formulae at seismological stations Kaperské Hory (KHC) and Berggiesshübel (BRG) where the calibrating functions for local magnitudes were determined for the same set of earthquakes with common reference magnitudes as in the case of the PRU station.     

乌兰浩特地震台典型地震事件震相特征分析

选取乌兰浩特地震台记录到的典型天然地震事件及爆破事件,根据断裂带分布及波形记录特征,分析地震及爆破事件的震相特征。结果表明,研究区域近震波形Pn、Pg、Sn、Sg震相及Sm面波较清晰,Pg、Sg波走时差一般不大于23 s,与中国地震台网中心发布的M_S震级间的偏差一般小于0.6级;远震P、S、pP、sP震相可较清晰识别,Pm、L面波记录较明显,P、S波走时差一般不小于25 s,震级偏差一般小于0.4级,且通过震相特征及实地考察发现,爆破多为霍林郭勒区域爆破事件。     

乌兰浩特地震台典型地震事件震相特征分析

选取乌兰浩特地震台记录到的典型天然地震事件及爆破事件,根据断裂带分布及波形记录特征,分析地震及爆破事件的震相特征。结果表明,研究区域近震波形Pn、Pg、Sn、Sg震相及Sm面波较清晰,Pg、Sg波走时差一般不大于23 s,与中国地震台网中心发布的M_S震级间的偏差一般小于0.6级;远震P、S、pP、sP震相可较清晰识别,Pm、L面波记录较明显,P、S波走时差一般不小于25 s,震级偏差一般小于0.4级,且通过震相特征及实地考察发现,爆破多为霍林郭勒区域爆破事件。     

The time of occurrence and the magnitude of the largest aftershock over India

Summary The time of occurrence and the magnitude of the largest aftershock in relation to the main shock have been studied for India and its neighbourhood based on the USCGS data during the years 1963–1971. It is found that the largest aftershock occurs within 2 hours after the main shock in about 50% of the cases and frequency of occurrencen(t) of the largest aftershocks decreases hyper-bolically with the intervalt after the main event and could be represented by a law of the formn(t)=At ^–h whereA andh are constants. The probability of occurrence of the largest aftershock within 2 hours of the main shock is found to be higher over island are regions of the world. The difference (M ₀–M ₁) of the magnitude of the largest aftershockM ₁ to that of the main shockM ₀ as a measure of aftershock activity does not show any marked regional variation over India and its neighbourhood, as was reported by Mogifor Japan. Examination of the values ofM ₁/M ₀ and the constantb in Gutenberg-Richter's frequency magnitude relationship reveals a range of variation in both; high values ofM ₁/M ₀ have been found to be associated with high values ofb in many tectonic earthquakes and thus not, restricted to reservoir associated seismic activity.     

Earthquake magnitude or seismic moment in seismic hazard evaluation?

Seismic hazard analysis requires the estimation of the probabilities that earthquakes will take place within a region of interest, and the expected level of ground motion which will be received at a site during the nextt years. The earthquake magnitude has been used as a basic parameter, because it is available, under the assumption that the earthquake occurrence is a compound Poisson process with exponential or multinomial distribution of magnitude.For improving the hazard prediction, we used the seismic moment as a basic parameter to estimate the mean rate, , of occurrence of earthquakes in a function of seismic moment rate and slip rate released in a seismogenic region.As an illustration of the model, the seismic hazard analysis at different sites in and around the Gulf of Corinth, central Greece, is presented on the basis of the earthquake magnitude and the seismic moment. Comparison of the results shows that determination of the mean rate of earthquake occurrence, using the conventional Gutenberg-Richter recurrence model, underestimates the seismic hazard at a site.     

攀枝花台近震震级测算研究

通过对攀枝花台近震震级测算和周边地震台网及台站的震级结果进行综合对比,包括对测算方法和地震波形传播方式进行探讨.试图研究台站近震震级测算差异并初步找出与地质构造的相关关系;以期提高台站近震震级测算能力,减小误差.     

新一代CDSN地震事件盘的生成

向广大地震研究人员提供数字化地震事件数据，是ＣＤＳＮ最重要的任务之一。本文详细阐述了新一代ＣＤＳＮ数据管理中心提取地震事件数据的处理过程，及地震事件盘生成程序的研制与使用方法，该程序的研制极大提高了产生ＣＤＳＮ地震事件盘的效率，并确保了其操作的正确性。     

Moment magnitude determination of local seismic events recorded at selected Polish seismic stations

The paper presents the method of local magnitude determination used at Polish seismic stations to report events originating in one of the four regions of induced seismicity in Poland or its immediate vicinity. The method is based on recalculation of the seismic moment into magnitude, whereas the seismic moment is obtained from spectral analysis. The method has been introduced at Polish seismic stations in the late 1990s but as of yet had not been described in full because magnitude discrepancies have been found between the results of the individual stations. The authors have performed statistics of these differences, provide their explanation and calculate station corrections for each station and each event source region. The limitations of the method are also discussed. The method is found to be a good and reliable method of local magnitude determination provided the limitations are observed and station correction applied.     

库尔勒地震台远震体波震级偏差分析

选取库尔勒地震台2008—2015年记录的数字地震资料,与中国地震台网测定的体波震级进行对比,从震级大小、震中距、震源深度以及震中方位,分析二者之间的关系。结果可知,库尔勒地震台计算震级相对偏大,其中mb平均偏差为0.1455,mB平均偏差为0.1941;震源深度在0—96km时,mb和mB震级偏差接近平均值;当震源深度h>96km时,测定震级和中国地震台网测定震级基本一致;地震发生在第三象限时,台站测定震级与中国地震台网测定震级基本一致。     

洛阳地震台面波震级的偏差研究

利用洛阳地震台1985 ～ 2003 年记录的1755 个地震的面波资料,采用与国家地震台网中心相同的面波震级公式,研究了该台测定的面波震级与国家地震台网中心测定面波震级之间的偏差。结果表明,洛阳地震台测定面波震级的偏差与震中距之间有明显的相关性,在1°≤Δ≤130°范围内面波震级由偏小0. 1 逐渐变化到偏大,Δ≥20°时偏大0. 2 ～ 0. 3;在130° ＜ Δ≤180°范围内偏大0. 2。     

时间-震级可预报模式在南北地震带分段危险性评估中的应用

为了定量评估南北地震带不同段落的长期地震危险性,引入了时间－震级可预报模式。在详细地震复发行为的基础上,沿南北地震带划分了３９个震源区。利用其中２７个震源的多轮回复发资料初步建立起时间－震级可预报统计模型。计算结果表明,不同震源的地震复发表现出较好的时间可预报行为以及相对较弱的震级可预报行为。以时间可预报模型为基础,对所有震源区未来地震的复发概率进行了估算,同时,用震级可预报模型对未来地震的震级作     

克拉玛依地震台数字与模拟近震震级的对比与衔接

用2003年1～3月克拉玛依地震台数字地震仪、CDM-1遥测地震仪及新疆地震局月目录的资料,对比分析了目前克拉玛依地震台数字地震仪与CDM-1遥测地震仪计算出的震级偏差。结论是数字地震仪计算出的震级与新疆局月目录给出的震级无系统偏差,与CDM-1遥测地震仪计算出的震级也无系统偏差。同时给出2001年11月以前做的DD-1震级与新疆局月目录中相应震级对比分析工作结果及主要偏差范围,对偏差原因做了初步探讨。并用推理法给出了目前克拉玛依地震台数字地震仪与2001年11月以前DD-1仪之间震级的修正值。     

基于钻孔应变地震波记录确定地震面波应变震级

近年发展的高采样率的钻孔应变仪可以记录到地震波造成的水平应变,是动态库仑应力研究的重要手段.利用钻孔应变仪记录的应变地震波确定地震震级,是一个重要的科学课题.本文收集了我国10个应变台站四分量钻孔应变仪2020年1—3月记录的10 Hz采样应变地震波资料,共选出震级M≥4.0的浅源地震68个,用最小二乘法求得应变震级公式为M_ε=lgE_max+1.65lg(Δ)+1.43.对于6.5级以下的地震,计算得到的应变震级■_ε与中国地震台网中心公布的震级M_CENC基本一致:■,但本研究中的两个7级地震,应变震级出现了震级饱和现象.本文的基本结论是:应变定震级是可行的,但对于两个7级地震的饱和现象需要进一步深入研究,因为它们不但涉及震级确定,而且涉及远震动态库仑应力触发地震的研究.今后要对更多的大震钻孔应变波形记录进行分析.     

An updated method for estimating landslide‐event magnitude

Summary statistics derived from the frequency–area distribution (FAD) of inventories of triggered landslides allows for direct comparison of landslides triggered by one event (e.g. earthquake, rainstorm) with another. Such comparisons are vital to understand links between the landslide‐event and the environmental characteristics of the area affected. This could lead to methods for rapid estimation of landslide‐event magnitude, which in turn could lead to estimates of the total triggered landslide area. Previous studies proposed that the FAD of landslides follows an inverse power‐law, which provides the basis to model the size distribution of landslides and to estimate landslide‐event magnitude (mLS), which quantifies the severity of the event. In this study, we use a much larger collection of earthquake‐induced landslide (EQIL) inventories (n=45) than previous studies to show that size distributions are much more variable than previously assumed. We present an updated model and propose a method for estimating mLS and its uncertainty that better fits the observations and is more reproducible, robust, and consistent than existing methods. We validate our model by computing mLS for all of the inventories in our dataset and comparing that with the total landslide areas of the inventories. We show that our method is able to estimate the total landslide area of the events in this larger inventory dataset more successfully than the existing methods. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

东南沿海地震带的地震丛集窗及震级结构特征分析

基于东南沿海地震带的地震活动特点和构造背景, 确定了若干个地震活动特别集中的区域, 并引入地震丛集窗和震级结构的概念分析这些区域的局部特点。结果表明, 这些地震丛集窗的地震活动水平变化反映了所属大区的应力状态, 当某个地震丛集窗发生震级结构异常, 具备前兆震群特征的地震密集事件时, 该地震丛集窗内或其相关部位的介质性状可能发生了变化, 这对以后可能对应发生中强地震或强震具有一定的中期预测效能。     

分析云南地震资料给出的近震震级ML和面波震级Ms

云南省区域数字地震遥测台网自1999年建成以来,记录了大量地震波形资料,从2000年1月至2006年2月,云南省及邻区共发生ML≥4.0地震168次,对这些地震的震级重新进行了测定,结果表明,对于云南省的区域地震,近震的体波震级ML和面波震级MS之间不满足昆明地震台网多年使用的MS=1.13ML-1.08这一换算公式,且发现ML也不一定大于MS。