Declines in fatal crashes of older drivers: changes in crash risk and survivability

Objectives

Previous research has found that older driver fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined substantially in the United States during 1997–2006 and declined much faster than the rate for middle-age drivers. The current study examined whether the larger-than-expected decline for older drivers extended to nonfatal crashes and whether the decline in fatal crash risk reflects lower likelihood of crashing or an improvement in survivability of the crashes that occur.

Methods

Trends in the rates of passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers for drivers 70 and older (older drivers) were compared with trends for drivers ages 35–54 (middle-age drivers). Fatal crash information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for years 1997–2008, and nonfatal crash information was obtained from 13 states with good reporting information for years 1997–2005. Analysis of covariance models compared trends in annual crash rates for older drivers relative to rates for middle-age drivers. Differences in crash survivability were measured in terms of the odds of fatality given a crash each year, and the historical trends for older versus middle-age drivers were compared.

Results

Fatal crash involvement rates declined for older and middle-age drivers during 1997–2008 (1997–2005 for the 13 state subsample), but the decline for drivers 70 and older far exceeded the decline for drivers ages 35–54 (37 versus 23 percent, nationally; 22 versus 1 percent, 13 states). Nonfatal injury crash involvement rates showed similarly larger-than-expected declines for older drivers in the 13 state subsample, but the differences were smaller and not statistically significant (27 percent reduction for older drivers versus 16 percent for middle-age drivers). Property-damage-only crash involvement rates declined for older drivers (10 percent) but increased for middle-age drivers (1 percent). In 1997, older drivers were 3.5 times more likely than middle-age drivers to die in police-reported crashes (6.2 versus 1.8 deaths per 1000 crashes), but this difference was reduced during the 9-year study period to 2.9 times, as the rate of older drivers dying in a crash declined (5.5 deaths per 1000 crashes in 2005) and the death risk remained relatively stable for middle-age drivers.

Conclusions

Contrary to expectations based on increased licensure and travel by older drivers, their fatal crash risk has declined during the past decade and has declined at a faster rate than for middle-age drivers. The decreased risk for older drivers appears to extend not only to nonfatal injury crashes but also to property-damage-only crashes, at least as reported to police in the 13 states included in the nonfatal injury analysis. Although insurance collision data suggest that overall crash risk of older drivers may not be changing relative to middle-age drivers, the current analysis indicates that the reduced fatality risk of older drivers reflects both less likelihood of being involved in a police-reported crash and greater likelihood that they will survive when they do crash.     

Comparison of teen and adult driver crash scenarios in a nationally representative sample of serious crashes

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death and acquired disability during the first four decades of life. While teen drivers have the highest crash risk, few studies examine the similarities and differences in teen and adult driver crashes. We aimed to: (1) identify and compare the most frequent crash scenarios—integrated information on a vehicle's movement prior to crash, immediate pre-crash event, and crash configuration—for teen and adult drivers involved in serious crashes, and (2) for the most frequent scenarios, explore whether the distribution of driver critical errors differed for teens and adult drivers. We analyzed data from the National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey, a nationally representative study of serious crashes conducted by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration from 2005 to 2007. Our sample included 642 16- to 19-year-old and 1167 35- to 54-year-old crash-involved drivers (weighted n = 296,482 and 439,356, respectively) who made a critical error that led to their crash's critical pre-crash event (i.e., event that made the crash inevitable). We estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare the relative frequency of crash scenarios and driver critical errors. The top five crash scenarios among teen drivers, accounting for 37.3% of their crashes, included: (1) going straight, other vehicle stopped, rear end; (2) stopped in traffic lane, turning left at intersection, turn into path of other vehicle; (3) negotiating curve, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; (4) going straight, off right edge of road, right roadside departure; and (5) stopped in lane, turning left at intersection, turn across path of other vehicle. The top five crash scenarios among adult drivers, accounting for 33.9% of their crashes, included the same scenarios as the teen drivers with the exception of scenario (3) and the addition of going straight, crossing over an intersection, and continuing on a straight path. For two scenarios ((1) and (3) above), teens were more likely than adults to make a critical decision error (e.g., traveling too fast for conditions). Our findings indicate that among those who make a driver critical error in a serious crash, there are few differences in the scenarios or critical driver errors for teen and adult drivers.     

An examination of the environmental,driver and vehicle factors associated with the serious and fatal crashes of older rural drivers

Motor vehicle crashes involving rural drivers aged 75 years and over are more than twice as likely to result in a serious or fatal injury as those involving their urban counterparts. The current study examined some of the reasons for this using a database of police-reported crashes (2004–2008) to identify the environmental (lighting, road and weather conditions, road layout, road surface, speed limit), driver (driver error, crash type), and vehicle (vehicle age) factors that are associated with the crashes of older rural drivers. It also determined whether these same factors are associated with an increased likelihood of serious or fatal injury in younger drivers for whom frailty does not contribute to the resulting injury severity. A number of environmental (i.e., undivided, unsealed, curved and inclined roads, and areas with a speed limit of 100 km/h or greater) and driver (i.e., collision with a fixed object and rolling over) factors were more frequent in the crashes of older rural drivers and additionally associated with increased injury severity in younger drivers. Moreover, when these environmental factors were entered into a logistic regression model to predict whether older drivers who were involved in crashes did or did not sustain a serious or fatal injury, it was found that each factor independently increased the likelihood of a serious or fatal injury. Changes, such as the provision of divided and sealed roads, greater protection from fixed roadside objects, and reduced speed limits, appear to be indicated in order to improve the safety of the rural driving environment for drivers of all ages. Additionally, older rural drivers should be encouraged to reduce their exposure to these risky circumstances.     

Gender differences among older drivers in a comprehensive driving evaluation

Research studies typically consider older drivers as a homogenous group and do not report on the influence of gender on driving performance. Prior studies report that females are over-represented in crashes compared to males, caused by errors of yielding, gap acceptance, and speed regulation, all of which are assessed in a comprehensive driving evaluation (CDE). In a sample of 294 community dwelling older drivers, we examined and compared specific and total driving errors of both genders, and determined predictors of gender-specific driving errors and pass/fail outcomes who completed a CDE assessed by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. No differences in specific or total number of driving errors on the CDE were found between older males (Mean age 73.4 ± 6.0) and older females (Mean age 73.8 ± 5.7). Education, days of driving, Useful Field of View™ (UFOV), Rapid Paced Walk Test (RPW) and the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) were all independent predictors of failing a road test for both genders (p < 0.05). However, older females were 22% less likely than older males to fail an on-road test. Within group comparisons showed that older males and females >75 years were 3.2 and 3.5 times more likely to fail the on-road test compared to younger males and females (aged between 63 and 75), respectively. Our findings suggest that focusing on older old (75+) and old–old (85+) age groups may be more efficient for future investigations of driving performance.     

Validation of the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire in a representative sample of drivers in Australia

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is a widely used measure of driving behaviours that may increase a driver's risk of crash involvement. However, there are several different versions of the DBQ varying in terms of number of items and factor structure. The aim of the current research was to assess the construct validity of the popular 28-item four-factor DBQ solution in a representative sample of drivers in Australia. A further aim was to test the factorial invariance of the measure across gender, age and also between fleet and non-fleet drivers using multigroup confirmatory factor analyses. Data on a range of attitudes towards road safety were collected using an online survey. A stratified sampling procedure was undertaken to ensure the age, gender and location distributions of participants were representative of the Australian population. A total of 2771 responses were obtained from fully licensed motor vehicle drivers (male: 46%). Confirmatory factor analysis supported the 28-item four-factor DBQ in the Australian sample. The DBQ was also found to be gender-invariant and strong partial measurement invariance was found for drivers aged from 26 to 64, but not for younger (17–25) or older (65–75) drivers. Modifications to the DBQ suggest how the DBQ can be improved for use in these two age groups.     

Using the U.S. National Household Travel Survey to estimate the impact of passenger characteristics on young drivers’ relative risk of fatal crash involvement

Motor vehicle crashes are the main cause of morbidity and mortality in teenagers and young adults in the United States. Driving exposure and passenger presence, which can both vary by driver and passenger characteristics, are known to influence crash risk. Some studies have accounted for driving exposure in calculating young driver fatal crash risk in the presence of passengers, but none have estimated crash risk by driver sex and passenger age and sex. One possible reason for this gap is that data collection on driving exposure often precludes appropriate analyses. The purpose of this study was to examine, per 10 million vehicle trips (VT) and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT), the relative risk of fatal crash involvement in 15-20-year-old male and female drivers as a function of their passenger's age and sex, using solo driving as the referent. The Fatality Analysis Reporting System provided fatal motor vehicle crash data from 1999 to 2003 and the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) provided VT and VMT. The NHTS collects driving exposure for both household and non-household members (e.g., friends, colleagues), but demographic characteristics only on household members. Missing age and sex of non-household passengers were imputed with hot deck using information from household passengers’ trips with non-household drivers, thereby enabling the calculation of crash rate and relative risk estimates based upon driver and passenger characteristics. Using this approach, the highest risk was found for young male drivers with 16-20-year-old passengers (relative risk [RR] per 10 million VT = 7.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.34-8.69; RR per 10 million VMT = 9.94; 95% CI, 9.13-10.81). Relative risk was also high for 21-34-year-old passengers, again particularly when both drivers and passengers were male. These effects warrant further investigation and underscore the importance of considering driving exposure by passenger characteristics in understanding crash risk. Additionally, as all imputation techniques are imperfect, a more accurate estimation of U.S. fatal crash risk per distance driven would require national surveys to collect data on non-household passenger characteristics.     

Younger black patients have a higher risk of infection mortality that is mostly non‐dialysis related: A national study of cause‐specific mortality among U.S. maintenance dialysis patients

Introduction: While it has been well documented that in the U.S., black and Hispanic dialysis patients have overall lower risks of death than white dialysis patients, little is known whether their lower risks are observed in cause‐specific deaths. Additionally, recent research reported that younger black patients have a higher risk of death, but the source is unclear. Therefore, this study examined cause‐specific deaths among US dialysis patients by race/ethnicity and age. Methods: This national study included 1,255,640 incident dialysis patients between 1995 and 2010 in the United States Renal Data System. Five cause‐specific mortality rates, including cardiovascular (CVD), infection, malignancy, other known causes (miscellaneous), and unknown, were compared across blacks, Hispanics, and whites overall and stratified by age groups. Findings: After multiple adjustments, Hispanic patients had the lowest risk of mortality for every major cause in almost all ages. Compared with whites, blacks had a lower risk of death from CVD, malignancy and miscellaneous causes in most age groups, but not from infection. In fact, blacks had a higher risk of infection death than whites in ages 18–30 years (HR [95% CI] 1.94 [1.69–2.23]; P < 0.001), 31–40 years (HR 1.51 [1.40–1.63]; P < 0.001) and 41–50 years (HR 1.07 [1.02–1.12]; P = 0.009), which were partially attributed to their higher prevalence of AIDS nephropathy. For each race/ethnicity, more than two‐thirds of infection deaths were due to non‐dialysis related infections. Discussion: Hispanics had the lowest risk for each major cause of death. Blacks were less likely to die than whites from most causes, except infection. The previously reported higher overall mortality rate for younger blacks is attributed to their two‐fold higher infection mortality, which is mostly non‐dialysis related, suggesting a new direction to improve their overall health status. Research is greatly needed to determine social and biological factors that account for the survival gap in dialysis among different racial/ethnic groups.