贵州省流域径流量洪水预报系统研究及开发

通过考察和分析乌江上游面雨量与入库流量之间的关系,划分洪水等级,找出入库径流系数,建立入库径流量与面雨量之间的计算公式,开发洪水预报系统投入业务运行.     

Analysis of formation and forecast of spring snowmelt flood runoff in forest and forest-steppe basins of Siberian rivers

Popov’s infiltration-capacitive model of the spring runoff, including the computation of the runoff losses due to evaporation in the period of snow melting and losses due to evaporation and absorption in the period of exhaustion of the sheet inflow into the channel net, is used. Equations to forecast the spring snowmelt flood runoff, taking account of the frozen soil melting, are derived. The method of estimation of their parameters on the base of the joint use of linear regression and optimization methods is realized. It is demonstrated that factors of the autumn moistening and freezing of soils of basins in the beginning of winter influence the spring runoff losses. The integrated index of the initial state of the basin, taking account of mentioned factors, is proposed.     

Freezing types and winter runoff of small rivers

Investigations carried out in the Northern Dvina River basin revealed that the decrease in the ice thickness on small rivers is of significant importance in the increase in the water content of rivers in winter in recent decades. This process resulted in the improvement of the channel capacity as a result of the decrease in the ice formation intensity on the rivers and of the increase in the fraction of ground waters participating in the winter river runoff formation. It is proposed to consider the initial winter ice conditions as a separate important factor of this process as they define the types of river freezing influencing on the winter river runoff formation as well.     

Present-day variations of the minimum runoff of the Volga basin rivers

Carried out is the analysis of stationarity of minimum runoff series in summer and winter for the Volga basin rivers. Two conditionally homogeneous periods are singled out within the temporal variations of these characteristics, and the date of their change varies throughout the territory of the basin. The considerable rise in air temperature in winter on the whole territory of the Volga basin is demonstrated as a result of the analysis of meteorological parameters. The relationship between runoff variations and wintertime temperature variations is proposed for predicting the minimum runoff. The distribution of minimum values of runoff is computed using this dependence and the forecast method based on the sum of distributions.     

Regularities of regional distribution of the ion runoff modulus of Azerbaijan mountain rivers

To study the modulus of the ion runoff of Azerbaijan mountain rivers, the data for the period of 1950–2010 are used. It is revealed that the values of the ion runoff modulus increase as the height rises on the whole territory with the exception of the Lankaran natural area. The dependences between runoff modulus and height M _R = f(H) are obtained. The derived equation can be used for the determination of the ion runoff modulus of unexplored rivers.     

Factors and characteristics of the spatial correlation of the annual runoff of the Upper Ob basin rivers

The main features of the spatial and temporal oscillations of the annual runoff of the rivers in the Upper Ob basin, which is characterized by various landscape and hydrologic conditions, are discussed. It is found that the coefficients of pair correlation of the annual runoff have been decreasing since the late 1990s-early 2000s. Correlation functions for mountain areas should be constructed separately for river basins ranked according to the prevailing type of river feed. The coefficients of pair correlation can be described by multiple regression equations, which, apart from the distance between the centers of gravity of the basins, may include landscape characteristics such as the difference in their average elevation and forest cover.     

The forecast of the runoff of georgian mountain rivers under conditions of the sparse observational network

Landscape and climate conditions of mountain rivers lead to high and long-lasting floods that sometimes result in ecological deformation and cause immeasurable damage to the environment and enormous economic loss for the country. Therefore, their forecast is of high scientific and economic importance. For the above reasons, a prognostic method based on the statistical model was worked out. The optimum system of predictors is selected from their potential set using various mathematical criteria. By means of the direct and backward development of multi-factor dependences, the following regularities are investigated simultaneously: the decrease in the number of predictors, the increase in the lead time and accuracy, and the possibility of ignoring accompanying factors that arise in the corresponding lead time. Different prognostic equations taking account of the differences in data, the lead time and accuracy are derived for each hydrological section and region.     

Estimation of transformation of flood runoff hydrographs and water stages in the Lower Volga and its delta

A system of hydrographs’ quantitative parameters for the flood discharges and stages in the Lower Volga River and its delta was developed. Water releases from the Volzhskaya Hydropower Plant and floods in the upper sections of the Volga River delta caused by those releases were identified and grouped in accordance with their water content; their parameters were computed for the entire period of the runoff managing (i.e., since 1961). In addition, parameters of typical hydrographs, which were averaged for different categories of water content, were computed and their graphical models were plotted. Quantitative and qualitative estimates of changes in shape of the discharge hydrographs in the Lower Volga were obtained for different flood types, while for the water stage hydrographs in the Lower Volga and its delta, only quantitative estimation was carried out.     

冬半年南支槽与乌江流域汛期径流的关系探讨

基于1954—2014年乌江流域站点的逐月径流与NCEP/NCAR的逐月位势高度、风矢量资料、比湿及垂直速度资料,采用相关分析、回归分析、合成分析等方法,研究了冬半年南支槽与汛期乌江流域径流的关系,并探讨了其对乌江流域径流影响的可能机制。结果表明,冬半年各月南支槽强度指数(Southern Branch Trough Index,SBTI)与5月乌江流域径流有着稳定且显著的负相关关系,且基于冬半年月份SBTI构建的线性回归模型可以很好地预测5月径流;因此,冬半年南支槽指数可以作为乌江流域5月径流的预报因子。合成分析表明,南支槽强年,青藏高原南侧西风带波动强烈,且槽前风场差值呈气旋性异常,伴随着乌江流域的南风矢量,为槽前暖湿气流向乌江流域的输送提供了水平动力;副热带高压强度的减弱可能使得来自西太平洋的水汽流向乌江流域,强化了水汽向乌江的输送;南支槽强年乌江流域低层到高层水汽含量显著增加,垂直上升运动可持续到300 h Pa,加强了乌江流域的水汽辐合和对流运动,有利于该流域降水的产生,进而使得径流量显著增加。     

1961—2018年中国主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因

枯季是水旱、水生态和水资源问题的重要时期,枯季径流的变化直接影响着河流生态和流域水资源管理.基于中国网格气象数据和主要江河枯季径流资料,初步分析了1961—2018年中国气候变化趋势和主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因.结果表明,全国枯季平均气温显著上升,北方地区升温较早,南方地区2001—2018年升温明显.全国约84％...     

一种依据旱涝灾情资料确定分区暴雨洪涝临界雨量的方法

针对暴雨洪涝风险预警、区划、评估业务的需求,提出了一种面向任务的移动灾情快速采集直报方法。在设计暴雨洪涝灾情实时采集流程和确定灾情记录内容的基础上,解决采集过程中的任务接收、现场定位、一体化采集、即时传输等关键技术,研发了基于智能手机的暴雨洪涝灾情采集手机APP。通过汛期实际暴雨过程的相关业务试验表明,暴雨洪涝灾情采集方法及手机APP可以在第一时间内获取灾害现场信息,为灾情验证评估提供实时资料,满足业务化应用的需求。

     

“EOF-CCA”分析方法在甘孜州两江一河流域早涝趋势预测中的应用

本文通过“EOF-CCA”分析方法在甘孜州两江一河流域旱涝趋势预测中的应用分析，阐明两江一河流域旱涝趋势分布特征，并对汛期旱涝趋势预测方法进行探讨，为两江一河流域生态资源利用、开发等提供气象条件的理论依据，对该区域的生态开发、减灾防灾工作等都具有重要作用。     

"EOF-CCA"分析方法在甘孜州两江--河流域旱涝趋势预测中的应用

本文通过"EOF-CCA"分析方法在甘孜州两江一河流域旱涝趋势预测中的应用分析,阐明两江一河流域旱涝趋势分布特征,并对汛期旱涝趋势预测方法进行探讨,为两江一河流域生态资源利用、开发等提供气象条件的理论依据,对该区域的生态开发、减灾防灾工作等都具有重要作用.     

WRF模式与Topmodel模型在洪水预报中的耦合预报试验研究

基于空间分辨率90 m×90 m的湖北荆门漳河水库数字高程模型（DEM）地形数据,并从2012-2015年选取了20场洪水过程（其中16场用于模拟,4场用于检验）,将华中区域数值天气预报业务模式WRF提供的三重嵌套空间分辨率3 km×3 km、9 km×9 km和27 km×27 km预报降雨与集总式新安江模型以及半分布式水文模型Topmodel耦合进行洪水预报试验。通过对比试验得到以下结论：当流域降雨的时、空分布比较均匀时,集总式新安江模型可以较准确地预报出洪峰流量和峰现时间,而当降雨时、空分布差异较大时,预报误差也会随之增大。基于DEM数据建立的Topmodel模型可以反映不同降雨时、空分布下洪水预报结果的差异,试验结果表明,3 km×3 km和9 km×9 km洪水预报的输出结果比较接近,且在确定性系数和洪峰相对误差上要优于27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果,而在峰现时差的预报上,则是27 km×27 km的洪水预报结果与实测较吻合。通过研究还发现,虽然当流域降雨的时、空分布存在一定差异时,3种空间分辨率的WRF预报降雨均无法预报出与实测一致的降雨分布,但是在某些情况下,当降雨的时间分布误差和空间分布误差相抵消时,仍然可以得到较为准确的洪水预报结果。因此,高时、空分辨率的模式预报降雨并不一定就能对洪水预报结果产生正贡献,需要通过反复尝试寻找水文模型和数值模式耦合的最佳时、空分辨率。     

Correlation between the total precipitation and the mean and maximum runoff during the snowmelt flood in the Belaya River basin

Presented are the results of analyzing the correlation between the total winter and autumn precipitation and the parameters of spring water runoff in the Belaya River basin for the period of 1936–2000. Five regions are defined, and major factors influencing the runoff formation in each of them are listed. The correlation between the runoff characteristics and the total precipitation is estimated; it can be used for developing the methodological instructions for the runoff forecast in different areas of Bashkortostan.     

怀化市汛期(4-9月)旱涝特征分析及预测

通过对怀化市历年汛期旱涝气候特征分析,认为Z值为旱涝判据较为客观;利用灰色系统模型对汛期旱涝趋势进行预测,为中长期预报提供一个有用参考.     

Methodological aspects of computation of average long-term ionic runoff of mountain rivers (by the example of Azerbaijan)

The obtained data on the average long-term ionic runoff of mountain rivers of Azerbaijan served as the basis for the study of its distribution and for the improvement of computation technique depending on the average annual water runoff and on the average height and area of the catchment.     

一种基于水文模拟建立中小河流洪水气象风险等级指标的方法

提出一种基于水文模拟建立中小河流洪水气象风险等级临界累积面雨量指标（简称气象风险等级指标）的方法,由水位-流量曲线估计不同风险等级相应的临界参考流量,将2009年5月1日—9月30日綦江五岔、东溪、石角水文站的08：00BST报汛流量和雷达联合地面雨量计估测的流域面雨量作为TOPMODEL降水-径流模型率定时的流量和降水输入;在TOPMODEL水文模拟的基础上,选取2009年峰值流量过程,设计不同的小时面雨量序列进行水文模拟,得到峰值流量与流域累积面雨量的关系,根据临界参考流量,建立不同气象风险等级的临界累积面雨量指标;用2010年相应流域洪峰过程对所建立的指标进行检验。结果表明,利用气象风险等级指标推断的风险等级与实际洪峰对应的风险等级较为一致。     

Methods of long-range forecasting of dates of the spring flood beginning and peak flow in the estuary sections of the Ob and Yenisei rivers

Multi-year characteristics of the beginning of spring floods and their peak flow observed at the stream gauges located in the estuary sections of the Ob and Yenisei rivers in the period from 1936 to 2003 were obtained in this work. For most of stream gauges, significant correlation between these characteristic dates and dates when the accumulated positive temperatures (observed at the meteorological stations located in the middle parts of the catchments) reached 30 and 40°C was revealed. A great percentage of successful forecasts issued by using the multiple regression equations (78–86%) allow recommending using the obtained relationships for long-range forecasting of dates of the spring flood beginning and its peaks in the estuary sections of the Ob and Yenisei rivers with a 20–24-days lead time.