What can wave energy learn from offshore oil and gas?

This title may appear rather presumptuous in the light of the progress made by the leading wave energy devices. However, there may still be some useful lessons to be learnt from current 'offshore' practice, and there are certainly some awful warnings from the past. Wave energy devices and the marine structures used in oil and gas exploration as well as production share a common environment and both are subject to wave, wind and current loads, which may be evaluated with well-validated, albeit imperfect, tools. Both types of structure can be designed, analysed and fabricated using similar tools and technologies. They fulfil very different missions and are subject to different economic and performance requirements; hence 'offshore' design tools must be used appropriately in wave energy project and system design, and 'offshore' cost data should be adapted for 'wave' applications. This article reviews the similarities and differences between the fields and highlights the differing economic environments; offshore structures are typically a small to moderate component of field development cost, while wave power devices will dominate overall system cost. The typical 'offshore' design process is summarized and issues such as reliability-based design and design of not normally manned structures are addressed. Lessons learned from poor design in the past are discussed to highlight areas where care is needed, and wave energy-specific design areas are reviewed. Opportunities for innovation and optimization in wave energy project and device design are discussed; wave energy projects must ultimately compete on a level playing field with other routes to low CO? energy and/or energy efficiency. This article is a personal viewpoint and not an expression of a ConocoPhillips position.     

What do we really know about dark energy?

In this paper, we discuss what we truly know about dark energy. I shall argue that, to date, our single indication for the existence of dark energy comes from distance measurements and their relation to redshift. Supernovae, cosmic microwave background anisotropies and observations of baryon acoustic oscillations simply tell us that the observed distance to a given redshift z is larger than the one expected from a Friedmann-Lema?tre universe with matter only and the locally measured Hubble parameter.     

What are we learning from simulating wall turbulence?

The study of turbulence near walls has experienced a renaissance in the last decade, largely owing to the availability of high-quality numerical simulations. The viscous and buffer layers over smooth walls are essentially independent of the outer flow, and there is a family of numerically exact nonlinear structures that account for about half of the energy production and dissipation. The rest can be modelled by their unsteady bursting. Many characteristics of the wall layer, such as the dimensions of the dominant structures, are well predicted by those models, which were essentially completed in the 1990s after the increase in computer power made the kinematic simulations of the late 1980s cheap enough to undertake dynamic experiments.Today, we are at the early stages of simulating the logarithmic (or overlap) layer, and a number of details regarding its global properties are becoming clear. For instance, a finite Reynolds number correction to the logarithmic law has been validated in turbulent channels. This has allowed upper and lower limits of the overlap region to be clarified, with both upper and lower bounds occurring at much larger distances from the wall than commonly assumed. A kinematic picture of the various cascades present in this part of the flow is also beginning to emerge. Dynamical understanding can be expected in the next decade.     

Understanding the market for remanufactured products: what can we learn from online trading and Web search sites?

Notwithstanding the interest it elicits from academics and practitioners, relatively little is known about the market for remanufactured products. Research, still in its infancy, has focused almost entirely on what affects willingness to pay, and our understanding of other key marketing questions, such as what drives search intensity for remanufactured products and the number of remanufactured products on offer, is limited. This paper fills this knowledge gap. Focusing on the online market for remanufactured electrical and electronic products, we empirically test whether product-specific and market-specific determinants affect search intensity and number of remanufactured products on offer, that is number of listings. We use as inputs online search traffic, product-specific data collected from various other online sources and relevant eBay listing data. Our analysis supports the hypotheses that search intensity for remanufactured products is associated with search intensity for price and elapsed time since the launch of new counterpart products. Number of remanufactured products listed is associated with number of listings for new counterparts and two product-specific characteristics: presence of moving parts and whether the product is used for personal hygiene. We discuss several implications of our findings for remanufacturers and policy-makers as well as directions for future research.     

The forgotten component of the quality triad: can we still learn something from "structure"?

BACKGROUND: Quality assessment was founded on structural measures, such as accreditation status of facilities, credentialing of providers, and type of provider. Recent efforts in measures development have focused on processes and outcomes because research has suggested that structural measures are not strong markers of the quality of care at the health plan or provider levels. Nevertheless, the literature on the quality of health care contains a number of examples illustrating the potential application of structural measures to the assessment of quality. The continued development of measures of structure-which would at least measure aspects of the physical environment, working conditions, organizational culture, and provider satisfaction--may be helpful because generalizing from studies of process and outcome requires specification of the conditions under which these linkages are found. A ROAD MAP FOR MEASURES DEVELOPMENT: The Leapfrog Group of large purchasers has promoted the application of three patient safety "leaps" that are, in essence, structural measures: the use of computerized physician order entry, the selective referral of patients to high-volume providers for certain procedures, and the availability of board-certified critical care specialists in intensive care units. Structural measures, like process and outcomes measures, face the same challenges of standardization, reliability, validity, and portability. Field testing of potential measures will be required to examine the feasibility and added value of these measures in real-world settings. CONCLUSION: Research to date suggests that a new cadre of structural measures of health care quality, which have largely been overlooked in the recent measures development boom, have the potential to fill in important gaps in our ability to assess quality.     

What do we perceive from motion pictures? A computational account

Cinema viewed from a location other than a canonical viewing point (CVP) presents distortions to the viewer in both its static and its dynamic aspects. Past works have investigated mainly the static aspect of this problem and attempted to explain why viewers still seem to perceive the scene very well. The dynamic aspect of depth perception, which is known as structure from motion, and its possible distortion, have not been well investigated. We derive the dynamic depth cues perceived by the viewer and use the so-called isodistortion framework to understand its distortion. The result is that viewers seated at a reasonably central position experience a shift in the intrinsic parameters of their visual systems. Despite this shift, the key properties of the perceived depths remain largely the same, being determined in the main by the accuracy to which extrinsic motion parameters can be recovered. For a viewer seated at a noncentral position and watching the movie screen at a slant angle, the view is related to the view at the CVP by a homography, resulting in various aberrations such as noncentral projection.     

Fold and flexibility: what can proteins' mechanical properties tell us about their folding nucleus?

The determination of a protein''s folding nucleus, i.e. a set of native contacts playing an important role during its folding process, remains an elusive yet essential problem in biochemistry. In this work, we investigate the mechanical properties of 70 protein structures belonging to 14 protein families presenting various folds using coarse-grain Brownian dynamics simulations. The resulting rigidity profiles combined with multiple sequence alignments show that a limited set of rigid residues, which we call the consensus nucleus, occupy conserved positions along the protein sequence. These residues'' side chains form a tight interaction network within the protein''s core, thus making our consensus nuclei potential folding nuclei. A review of experimental and theoretical literature shows that most (above 80%) of these residues were indeed identified as folding nucleus member in earlier studies.     

Speeding by young novice drivers: What can personal characteristics and psychosocial theory add to our understanding?

Purpose

Young novice drivers continue to be overrepresented in fatalities and injuries arising from crashes even with the introduction of countermeasures such as graduated driver licensing (GDL). Enhancing countermeasures requires a better understanding of the variables influencing risky driving. One of the most common risky behaviours performed by drivers of all ages is speeding, which is particularly risky for young novice drivers who, due to their driving inexperience, have difficulty in identifying and responding appropriately to road hazards. Psychosocial theory can improve our understanding of contributors to speeding, thereby informing countermeasure development and evaluation. This paper reports an application of Akers’ social learning theory (SLT), augmented by Gerrard and Gibbons’ prototype/willingness model (PWM), in addition to personal characteristics of age, gender, car ownership, and psychological traits/states of anxiety, depression, sensation seeking propensity and reward sensitivity, to examine the influences on self-reported speeding of young novice drivers with a Provisional (intermediate) licence in Queensland, Australia.

Method

Young drivers (n = 378) recruited in 2010 for longitudinal research completed two surveys containing the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale, and reported their attitudes and behaviours as pre-Licence/Learner (Survey 1) and Provisional (Survey 2) drivers and their sociodemographic characteristics.

Results

An Akers’ measurement model was created. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that (1) personal characteristics (PC) explained 20.3%; (2) the combination of PC and SLT explained 41.1%; (3) the combination of PC, SLT and PWM explained 53.7% of variance in self-reported speeding. Whilst there appeared to be considerable shared variance, the significant predictors in the final model included gender, car ownership, reward sensitivity, depression, personal attitudes, and Learner speeding.

Conclusions

These results highlight the capacity for psychosocial theory to improve our understanding of speeding by young novice drivers, revealing relationships between previous behaviour, attitudes, psychosocial characteristics and speeding. The findings suggest multi-faceted countermeasures should target the risky behaviour of Learners, and Learner supervisors should be encouraged to monitor their Learners’ driving speed. Novice drivers should be discouraged from developing risky attitudes towards speeding.     

Can we improve clinical prediction of at-risk older drivers?

Objectives

To conduct a pilot study to evaluate the predictive value of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment test (MoCA) and a brief test of multiple object tracking (MOT) relative to other tests of cognition and attention in identifying at-risk older drivers, and to determine which combination of tests provided the best overall prediction.

Methods

Forty-seven currently licensed drivers (58–95 years), primarily from a clinical driving evaluation program, participated. Their performance was measured on: (1) a screening test battery, comprising MoCA, MOT, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Trail-Making Test, visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, and Useful Field of View (UFOV) and (2) a standardized road test.

Results

Eighteen participants were rated at-risk on the road test. UFOV subtest 2 was the best single predictor with an area under the curve (AUC) of .84. Neither MoCA nor MOT was a better predictor of the at-risk outcome than either MMSE or UFOV, respectively. The best four-test combination (MMSE, UFOV subtest 2, visual acuity and contrast sensitivity) was able to identify at-risk drivers with 95% specificity and 80% sensitivity (.91 AUC).

Conclusions

Although the best four-test combination was much better than a single test in identifying at-risk drivers, there is still much work to do in this field to establish test batteries that have both high sensitivity and specificity.     

What happens when drivers face hazards on the road?

The current study aims to obtain knowledge about the nature of the processes involved in Hazard Perception, using measurement techniques to separate and independently quantify these suspected sub-processes: Sensation, Situation Awareness (recognition, location and projection) and decision-making. It applies Signal Detection Theory analysis to Hazard Perception and Prediction Tasks. To enable the calculation of Signal Detection Theory parameters, video-recorded hazardous vs. quasi-hazardous situations were presented to the participants. In the hazardous situations it is necessary to perform an evasive action, for instance, braking or swerving abruptly, while the quasi-hazardous situations do not require the driver to make any evasive manoeuvre, merely to carry on driving at the same speed and following the same trajectory. A first Multiple Choice Hazard Perception and Prediction test was created to measure participants’ performance in a What Happens Next? Task. The sample comprised 143 participants, 47 females and 94 males. Groups of non-offender drivers (learner, novice and experienced) and offender drivers (novice and experienced) were recruited. The Multiple Choice Hazard Perception and Prediction test succeeded in finding differences between drivers according to their driving experience. In fact, differences exist with regard to the level of hazard discrimination (d′ prime) by drivers with different experience (learner, novice and experienced drivers) and profile (offenders and non-offenders) and these differences emerge from Signal Detection Theory analysis. In addition, it was found that experienced drivers show higher Situation Awareness than learner or novice drivers. On the other hand, although offenders do worse than non-offenders on the hazard identification question, they do just as well when their Situation Awareness is probed (in fact, they are as aware as non-offenders of what the obstacles on the road are, where they are and what will happen next). Nevertheless, when considering the answers participants provided about their degree of cautiousness, experienced drivers were more cautious than novice drivers, and non-offender drivers were more cautious than offender drivers. That is, a greater number of experienced and non-offender drivers chose the answer “I would make an evasive manoeuvre such as braking gradually”.     

What can information-asymmetric games tell us about the context of Crick's ‘frozen accident’?

This paper describes a novel application of information-asymmetric (signalling) games to molecular biology in which utility is determined by the message complexity (rate) in addition to the error in information transfer (distortion). We show using a computational model how it is possible for the agents in one such game to evolve a signalling convention (separating equilibrium) that is suboptimal in terms of information transfer, but is nonetheless stable. In the context of an RNA world merging with a nascent amino acid one, such a game''s equilibrium is alluded to by the genetic code, which is nearly optimal in terms of information transfer, but is also near-universal and nearly immutable. Such a framework suggests that cellularity may have emerged to encourage coordination between RNA species and sheds light on other aspects of RNA world biochemistry yet to be fully understood.     

What can cities do to increase resilience?

This paper examines climate change mitigation and adaptation from an insurance industry perspective, with particular reference to London and the USA. It illustrates how British insurers are increasingly shaping public policy and using new technology to manage the risks from climate change impacts and makes a plea for society to make more use of insurance expertise in future decision making. In particular, more dialogue is needed between architects, planners and insurers to adapt our buildings and cities for climate change impacts. The paper is an abbreviated and updated version of the paper presented by the author in Houston, Texas, in 2005.     

Do German drivers use their smartphones safely?—Not really!

Research in the laboratory as well as in naturalistic driving studies has shown that texting while driving seems to be the most dangerous driver distraction. However, there is still some discussion about the extent to which drivers adapt their behavior to the traffic situation. Accordingly, they might use their phones only in easy driving situations but refrain from doing so when driving becomes more demanding. For Germany, no reliable data on these topics could be found although overall smartphone use has also increased exponentially in this country. As observational studies have proven to be an effective means to gather these data, such a study was done observing 11,837 drivers in three big German cities (Braunschweig, Hannover, Berlin) during daytime. An alarmingly high rate of texting while driving was found (4.5%) as compared to other international studies. This was even more frequent than the use of handheld (2.2%) and hands-free (1.7%) phones combined. Thus, there seems to be a special problem in Germany with texting which should be further examined as this activity is highly distracting. Finally, there was some indication that drivers adapt their secondary task activities to the requirements of the driving task (e.g. somewhat less texting when moving than when stationary at a red traffic light). However, these adaptations were not very strong. Thus, drivers seem to underestimate the dangers due to distraction. This could be a starting point for countermeasures which increase this awareness of danger.