Supply chain management using put option contracts with information asymmetry

We study the problem of hedging demand uncertainty in a supply chain consisting of a risk-neutral supplier and a risk-averse retailer under a buyback contract. We use semi-variance of the possible profit values as a measure of the retailer’s risk attitude. We first study the setting where the supplier can observe the risk type of the retailer and find that in this case the supplier can design a buyback contract that extracts the maximum profit for the supplier. When the retailer’s type is unobservable, a new contract needs to be designed (the ‘option buyback contract’) and we show that in this case the retailers will self-select and chose an order quantity that maximises the total supply chain profit. Through numerical computations, we analyse the dynamics between the benefits of hedging risk, information rent and the retailer’s type, and outline cases when, depending on the shape of the reservation utilities of the retailers, it is too costly for the supplier to manage risk. In conclusion, our results show that whereas semi-variance has appealing properties as a measure of risk, its use introduces analytical challenges that can only be overcome through numerical computation.     

Procurement decisions and information sharing under multi-tier disruption risk in a supply chain

We consider a manufacturer's procurement decision in a three-tier supply chain (SC) under disruption risk. The manufacturer sources components from a single first-tier supplier (FT). The FT, in turn, sources raw materials from a single second-tier supplier (ST). Suppliers in both tiers are unreliable, i.e. prone to disruption risk. Increasing SC visibility through information sharing is a potential disruption management strategy for the manufacturer. While the manufacturer can obtain disruption risk information for the FT, disruption risk information for the ST is not easily accessible to the manufacturer except through the FT, who may not be willing to share ST information. We study different mechanisms under which the manufacturer can obtain ST information, and its impact on manufacturer's and FT's decisions and potential profits. We show that information sharing makes the manufacturer's procurement decisions more conservative, i.e. carrying more inventories, but the FT's procurement decision is contingent on the ST's reliability; more proactive (conservative) when ST is unreliable (reliable), i.e. carrying less (more) inventories. We demonstrate that there are two ways to induce the FT to share its information, and numerically show that their effectiveness is contingent on multiple factors, including FT and ST reliabilities and information sharing costs.     

Integrated supply chain risk management via operational methods and financial instruments

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) is an emerging field that generally lacks integrative approaches across different disciplines. This study contributes to narrowing this gap by developing an integrated approach to SCRM using operational methods and financial instruments. We study a supply chain composed of an aluminium can supplier, a brewery and a distributor. The supply chain is exposed to aluminium price fluctuation and beer demand uncertainty. A stochastic optimisation model is developed for managing operational and financial risks along the supply chain. Using this model as a base, we compare the performance of an integrated risk management model (under which operational and financial risk management decisions are made simultaneously) to a sequential model (under which the financial risk management decisions are made after the operational risk management decisions are finalised). Through simulation-based optimisation and using experimental designs and statistical analyses, we analyse the performance of the two models in minimising the expected total opportunity cost of the supply chain. We examine the supply chain performance as a function of three factors, each at three levels: risk aversion, demand variability and aluminium price volatility. We find that the integrated model outperforms the sequential model in most but not in all cases. Furthermore, while the results indicate that the supply chain improves its performance by being less risk averse, there exists a threshold beyond which accepting a higher risk level is not justified. Managerial insights are provided for various business scenarios experimented with.     

Supply chain risk and resilience: theory building through structured experiments and simulation

The research literature of supply chain risk and resilience is at a critical developmental stage. Studies have established the importance of these topics both to researchers and practitioners. They also have identified factors contributing to risk, the impact of risk and disruptions on performance, and the strategies and tactics used to build the capacity for supply chain resilience. Although these efforts can provide support for constructing a theory of risk and resilience, researchers are currently restricted in their ability to build such a theory by the difficulty of collecting the necessary data. This paper contributes to this literature development effort by summarising prior research reviews and developing a three-component framework aimed at helping researchers to build better theories. This is accomplished through combining structured experimental design with discrete-event simulations of supply chains. The result is a methodology that allows researchers to develop better understanding of the factors that link a disruption to its impact on supply chain performance through both direct and interaction effects. Following the methodology development, the paper concludes with an example using the factors of shock interarrival time, supply chain connectivity and buffer stocks to illustrate the potential for contributing to the theory-building process.     

Supply chain risk management and its mitigation in a food industry

We create a model which analyses the various risks involved in a food supply chain with the help of interpretive structural modelling (ISM). The various types of risks were identified based on a review of the literature and in consultation with experts in the food industry. The types of risks are clustered into five categories and risk mitigation is discussed. The model developed is validated with the help of a case study involving a food products manufacturing firm.     

Supply chain coordination under information asymmetry: a review

Aligning supply chain decisions of separate entities with independent objectives can be considered to be one of the difficulties of supply chain management. This difficulty becomes worse if the supply chains are characterised by an asymmetrical distribution of information. Although considerable research has recently been devoted to supply chain coordination, less attention has been paid to different information asymmetry settings to the mechanisms underlying it. This research attempts to help fill this gap by reviewing and classifying the literature based on supply chain features, applied methodology, coordination mechanisms, and types of information asymmetry. The proposed classification is used to highlight the ongoing issues in the area and identify the direction for future research.     

Supply chain design and cost analysis through simulation

This paper is grounded on a discrete-event simulation model, reproducing a fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) supply chain, and aims at quantitatively assessing the effects of different supply configurations on the resulting total supply chain costs and bullwhip effect. Specifically, 30 supply chain configurations are examined, stemming from the combination of several supply chain design parameters, namely number of echelons (from 3 to 5), re-order and inventory management policies (EOQ vs. EOI), demand information sharing (absence vs. presence of information sharing mechanisms), demand value (absence vs. presence of demand ‘peak’), responsiveness of supply chain players. For each configuration, the total logistics costs and the resulting demand variance amplification are computed. A subsequent statistical analysis is performed on 20 representative supply chain configurations, with the aim to identify significant single and combined effects of the above parameters on the results observed. From effects analysis, bullwhip effect and costs outcomes, 11 key results are derived, which provide useful insights and suggestions to optimise supply chain design.     

Supply chain risk management: a literature review

Risk management plays a vital role in effectively operating supply chains in the presence of a variety of uncertainties. Over the years, many researchers have focused on supply chain risk management (SCRM) by contributing in the areas of defining, operationalising and mitigating risks. In this paper, we review and synthesise the extant literature in SCRM in the past decade in a comprehensive manner. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, we present and categorise SCRM research appearing between 2003 and 2013. Second, we undertake a detailed review associated with research developments in supply chain risk definitions, risk types, risk factors and risk management/mitigation strategies. Third, we analyse the SCRM literature in exploring potential gaps.     

Trust-embedded coordination in supply chain information sharing

This paper studies supply chain coordination with trust-embedded cost-sharing contract. In a two-tier supply chain, a retailer (she) and a supplier (he) make their private demand forecasting individually. The retailer places soft-orders, which are costless, non-verifiable and cancellable before shipping, to the supplier. After that, the supplier relies on the retailer’s ordering information to update his demand evaluation and prepare his capacity. How much the supplier relies on the retailer’s ordering information is specified by trust, which is a kind of psychological feeling and affected by multiple factors. When the supplier does not fully trust the retailer, he tends to prepare a conservative capacity to avoid over-production. To coordinate the supply chain, a two-stage coordination process is proposed. At the first stage, the supplier and retailer negotiate a cost-sharing rule to bind soft-orders. At the second stage, the retailer places a soft-order and decides whether or not to bind it referring to the cost-sharing rule. After that, the supplier determines his optimal production capacity. We show that the retailer and supplier value trust differently in the experimental studies. We also find that there is a threshold of negotiation power for the supply chain partners which means the supplier’s/retailer’s expected profit drops down if his/her negotiation power exceeds certain thresholds. The experimental studies also show that the proposed the two-stage coordination is effective.     

Roles of inventory and reserve capacity in mitigating supply chain disruption risk

This research focuses on managing disruption risk in supply chains using inventory and reserve capacity under stochastic demand. While inventory can be considered as a speculative risk mitigation lever, reserve capacity can be used in a reactive fashion when a disruption occurs. We determine optimal inventory levels and reserve capacity production rates for a firm that is exposed to supply chain disruption risk. We fully characterise four main risk mitigation strategies: inventory strategy, reserve capacity strategy, mixed strategy and passive acceptance. We illustrate how the optimal risk mitigation strategy depends on product characteristics (functional versus innovative) and supply chain characteristics (agile versus efficient). This work is inspired from a risk management problem of a leading pharmaceutical company.     

Supply chain resilience for single and multiple sourcing in the presence of disruption risks

This paper investigates the use of sourcing strategies to achieve supply chain resilience under disruptions. The coping strategies considered are single and multiple sourcing, backup supplier contracts, spot purchasing, and collaboration and visibility. Collaboration and visibility, which affect suppliers’ recovery capabilities and a buyer’s warning capability, have not been similarly modelled in the past. A scenario-based mathematical model is developed such that it considers objectives under uncertainties including disruption risks and operational risks. A broad numerical study examines its output for various risk attitudes in a decision-maker, ranging from risk neutral to risk averse. The sensitivity of procurement strategies to other key parameters such as recovery and warning capabilities is examined. One of the major findings is that buyer’s warning capability plays a vital role in enhancing supply chain resilience. We seek to build on these efforts to further support disruption planning and mitigation and to obtain a deeper understanding of the relationship between supply chain characteristics and resilience.     

Supply chain risk classification: discussion and proposal

The supply chain management philosophy has often been used by organisations to achieve a competitive advantage, but it increases the vulnerability of these supply chains (SC) to certain risks. This dialogue between competitive advantage and risk generation has increased the number of studies related to the topic of ‘supply chain risk management’. Aiming to contribute to this field of research, a literature survey was conducted on 16 risk classifications, which included 56 risk types. These risk types were sorted according to existing conceptual similarities and then related to the five management processes intrinsic in a functional SC (plan, source, make, deliver and return), which are mainly advocated by the supply chain operations reference model. This literature review also highlights the lack of consensus among the surveyed authors concerning the risk types that affect a SC, a gap which this paper seeks to close by proposing a supply chain risk classification.     

Supply chain risk management and artificial intelligence: state of the art and future research directions

Supply chain risk management (SCRM) encompasses a wide variety of strategies aiming to identify, assess, mitigate and monitor unexpected events or conditions which might have an impact, mostly adverse, on any part of a supply chain. SCRM strategies often depend on rapid and adaptive decision-making based on potentially large, multidimensional data sources. These characteristics make SCRM a suitable application area for artificial intelligence (AI) techniques. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of supply chain literature that addresses problems relevant to SCRM using approaches that fall within the AI spectrum. To that end, an investigation is conducted on the various definitions and classifications of supply chain risk and related notions such as uncertainty. Then, a mapping study is performed to categorise existing literature according to the AI methodology used, ranging from mathematical programming to Machine Learning and Big Data Analytics, and the specific SCRM task they address (identification, assessment or response). Finally, a comprehensive analysis of each category is provided to identify missing aspects and unexplored areas and propose directions for future research at the confluence of SCRM and AI.     

Supply chain coordination with two-part tariffs under information asymmetry

Supply chain coordination literature indicates that two-part tariff contracts cannot coordinate a supply chain with a supplier and a retailer under information asymmetry, but can coordinate the channel under full information, while leaving the retailer zero profit. Motivated by the practice of Costco Business Centres, we incorporate customer heterogeneity, near-saturated retail market and asymmetric information into a stylised model. The retailer has the knowledge of customer heterogeneity while the supplier does not. The supplier, on the other hand, designs a menu of two-part tariffs for the retailer to choose from. We have found that two-part tariffs can coordinate the supply chain under asymmetric information, while leaving the retailer a positive profit. In addition, a one-size-fits-all two-part tariff can coordinate the supply chain at equilibrium, i.e. there is no need for the supplier to design different two-part tariffs for the retailer who may possess different types of information.     

Effects of managerial ties and trust on supply chain information sharing and supplier opportunism

Managerial ties and trust are important factors in facilitating collaboration and reducing opportunistic behaviour. There is, however, a lack of empirical evidence on how these relational factors influence the sharing of information among supply chain partners. For example, do stronger managerial ties help to improve supply chain information sharing (SCIS) and reduce supplier opportunism? To what extent SCIS is influenced by managerial ties and trust? How do managerial ties interact with trust in influencing SCIS? Using data from 272 Chinese manufacturers, this paper examines the impact of managerial ties and trust on SCIS and supplier opportunism. The results show that, through trust managerial ties can significantly influence the extent of information sharing and the quality of the information shared. Managerial ties also have a direct impact on the extent of information sharing, but not on the quality of the information shared. The main implication for management practice is that the quality of the information shared – rather than the extent of information sharing – should be seen as the main leverage in reducing supplier opportunism.     

Information management strategies and supply chain performance under demand disruptions

The operations management literature presents inadequate comprehensive understanding on information management strategies of mitigating supply chain disruption risks. By using control theory modelling and simulation, this study compares the disruption mitigation effects of three information management strategies. From the aspect of stability, the existing stability boundaries are revised by a new method in a two-echelon case. It shows that supply chains (SC) with popular information management strategies are not evidently more stable than traditional ones. From the aspect of disruption recovery time, an innovative two-echelon swiftest response problem under these information management strategies is formulated and solved. Results show that a collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) SC with complete SC information performs the best. However, in a later operational risk mitigation test, an information sharing (IS) SC with partial information has the smallest bullwhip effect. From the aspect of demand amplification and frequency response, an innovative frequency–response plot of order amplification is proposed in a time-continuous SC with moving average forecasts. It implies the best frequency response for concurrently mitigating both operational and disruption risks coming from a CPFR SC. But for a certain SC structure there is still a balance between mitigating bullwhip effect and quick response. Moreover, it also implies that anti-bullwhip should exist in a certain condition, as realised in our numerical experiments.     

Literature review on disruption recovery in the supply chain*

Recent research underlines the crucial role of disruption events and recovery policies in supply chains. Despite a wealth of literature on supply chain design with disruption considerations, to the best of our knowledge there is no survey on supply chain with disruptions and recovery considerations. We analyse state-of-the-art research streams on supply chain design and planning with both disruptions and recovery considerations with the aim of relating the existing quantitative methods to empirical research. The paper structures and classifies existing research streams and application areas of different quantitative methods subject to different disruption risks and recovery measures. We identify gaps in current research and delineate future research avenues. The results of this study are twofold: operations and supply chain managers can observe which quantitative tools are available for different application areas; on the other hand, limitations and future research needs for decision-support methods in supply chain risk management domains can be identified.     

Supply chain risk mitigation competency: an individual-level knowledge-based perspective

Supply chain managers are responsible for making decisions regarding supply chain risk in order to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions. This study develops and tests a theoretical model that leverages the individual-level knowledge-based view perspective to understand the process through which risk mitigation orientation of the supply chain manager contributes to his/her absorptive capacity. A supply chain manager’s absorptive capacity, in turn, enhances his/her ability to effectively mitigate supply chain risk. Study findings demonstrate that supply chain managers with high-risk mitigation orientation have greater level of absorptive capacity which enhances their risk mitigation competency. This study represents the first development and testing of a model that examines individual-level knowledge management factors that affect supply chain risk mitigation competency. This research emphasises the importance of the individual supply chain manager in managing risk and illustrates how theoretical perspectives from the knowledge management, supply chain risk and organisational behaviour literature can be fruitfully adopted to explain behaviour in the field of supply chain risk management.     

A portfolio approach to supply chain disruption management

A new, computationally efficient portfolio approach to supplier selection in the presence of supply chain disruption risks is proposed, where the selection of supply portfolios for parts is combined with production scheduling of finished products. Unlike most of reported research on the supply chain risk management which focuses on the risk mitigation decisions taken prior to a disruption, the proposed portfolio approach combines decisions made before, during and after the disruption. The two decision-making approaches are considered: an integrated approach with the perfect information about the future disruption scenarios, and a hierarchical approach with no such information available. In the integrated approach, which accounts for all potential disruption scenarios, the primary supply portfolio that will hedge against all scenarios is determined along with the recovery supply portfolio and production schedule for each scenario. In the hierarchical approach, first the primary supply portfolio is determined, and then, when a primary supplier is hit by a disruption, the recovery supply portfolio is selected. For the integrated and the hierarchical decision-making, mixed integer programming models are developed with the two risk-neutral conflicting objectives that account for both time and cost of recovery: minimising expected cost or maximising expected service level. The findings indicate that for both objectives, the integrated decision-making selects a more diversified primary supply portfolio than the hierarchical approach and when all primary suppliers are shutdown by disruption, a single sourcing recovery portfolio is usually selected.     

Supply chain risk modelling and mitigation

In today’s global competitive environment, supply chains are more susceptible to vulnerability due to the increasing occurrence of internal and external risk events. In addition, the trend associated with lean management, which involves reducing inventory, leads to more dependency of supply chain partners on each other which exacerbates risk exposure of companies in the supply chain. This creates the need for more effective management of supply chain risks. In this research, a methodology based on Bow-Tie analysis and optimisation techniques is proposed to quantify and mitigate supply chain risks. The proposed methodology takes into consideration risk interconnections, and it identifies the best combination of mitigation strategies under budget constraints. A real case study from a high-end server manufacturing environment is presented. Results from the case study showed that the proposed methodology for risk modelling and mitigation can effectively be used to quantify the risks and achieve the required risk reduction at minimum cost while considering risk correlations.