不同模型方法在中小流域洪水预报中的适应性研究

延长洪水预报的时间和提高洪水预报精度,是减少中小流域洪灾损失最有效的非工程措施。该文选择广东山区和沿海的局部暴雨地区,采用三水源新安江模型、相关图、谢尔曼单位线和无因次单位线等模型方法进行应用研究,以探索不同模型方法在不同流域的适应性。     

Evaluation of Crop Models for Simulating and Optimizing Deficit Irrigation Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Countries Under Climate Variability

The variability of fresh water availability in arid and semi-arid countries poses a serious challenge to farmers to cope with when depending on irrigation for crop growing. This has shifted the focus onto improving irrigation management and water productivity (WP) through controlled deficit irrigation (DI). DI can be conceived as a strategy to deal with these challenges but more knowledge on risks and chances of this strategy is urgently needed. The availability of simulation models that can reliably predict crop yield under the influence of soil, atmosphere, irrigation, and agricultural management practices is a prerequisite for deriving reliable and effective deficit irrigation strategies. In this context, this article discusses the performance of the crop models CropWat, PILOTE, Daisy, and APSIM when being part of a stochastic simulation-based approach to improve WP by focusing primarily on the impact of climate variability. The stochastic framework consists of: (i) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate variability; (ii) a tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water supply; and (iii) the above mentioned models for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner. The results present stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPFs) that can be used as basic tools for assessing the impact on the risk for the potential yield due to water stress and climate variability. Example simulations from India, Malawi, France and Oman are presented and the suitability of these crop models to be employed in a framework for optimizing WP is evaluated.     

小流域产流汇流模型试验的应用研究

在降雨１：１相似的小流域产汇流模型试验中，不仅产流发生畸变，而且汇流畸变作用更大。本文旨在通过对降雨径流形成及土壤入渗动态方程的推导，分析，实际产流方式与模型产流方式的异同，引入模型产流畸变系数，导出模型试验结果的应用转换函数。在此基础上，又从线性汇流理论出发，依据推理公式，求得实际与模型试验最大洪峰流量及汇流时间之间的畸变关系。该研究使模型试验结果与原型趋于吻合，为小流域治理和水土保持工程设计提供了依据。     

基于SWAT模型的中尺度流域径流变化过程模拟

采用黄土丘陵沟壑区耤河流域1962—2008年逐日水文气象数据,基于GIS空间分析功能建立空间和属性数据库,利用SWAT模型对该流域过去47 a的径流变化过程进行了模拟与验证。结果表明:对于年、月尺度径流的校准与验证,模拟值和实测值变化趋势保持一致,但模拟值总体上均偏大;校准期年均流量模拟值的相对误差、与实测值的复相关系数、效率系数分别为15.3%、0.638、0.720,验证期分别为26.0%、0.569、0.511,可见验证期的模拟效果不如校准期的;月均流量也有类似的模拟效果,但不如年均流量模拟效果好。     

Assessment of the Impact of Potential Climate Change on the Water Balance of a Semi-arid Watershed

With a yearly precipitation of 200 mm in most of the country, Jordan is considered one of the least water-endowed regions in the world. Water scarcity in Jordan is exacerbated by growing demands driven by population and industrial growth and rising living standards. Major urban and industrial centers in Jordan including the Capital Amman are concentrated in the northern highlands, mostly contained within the boundaries of the Zarqa River Watershed (ZRW). The ZRW is the third most productive basin in the greater Jordan River System. King Talal Dam was built a few kilometers upstream of the Zarqa-Jordan confluence to regulate its input mostly for the benefit of agricultural activities in the Jordan Valley. Concerns regarding the sensitivity of the ZRW to potential climate change have prompted the authors to carry out the current study. The methodology adopted is based on simulating the hydrological response of the basin under alternative climate change scenarios. Utilizing the BASINS-HSPF modeling environment, scenarios represent ing climate conditions with ±20% change in rainfall, and 1°C, 2°C and 3.5°C increases in average temperature were simulated and assessed. The HSPF model was calibrated for the ZRW using records spanning from 1980 through 1994. The model was validated against an independent data record extending from 1995 through 2002. Calibration and verification results were assessed based on linear regression fitting of monthly and daily flows. Monthly calibration and verifications produced good fit with regression coefficient r values equal to 0.928 and 0.923, respectively. Assessment based on daily records show much more modest r value of 0.785. The study shows that climate warming can dramatically impact runoffs and groundwater recharge in the ZRW. However the impact of warming can be greatly influenced by significant changes in rainfall volume.     

几种产流模型在北江赤溪水文站“06.7”洪水的对比研究

产流计算是水文模拟的关键环节之一,不同的水文模型中,产流计算方法多样。采用几种降水入渗产流模型在珠江流域赤溪水文站建立模拟模型,通过"06.7"特大洪水实测资料对各个模型的参数进行优选,经过模拟结果对比及参数敏感性分析,选出土壤蓄水特征法(SMA)与指数下渗法(Exponential)等2种最优产流模型;同时,传统的初损稳渗法也能达到较好的效果。     

大连市大中型水库集总式洪水预报预警技术研究

本文通过对洪水预报预警系统发展现状和大连市区域概况进行调查分析,找出各水库和水库上级主管部门在防洪预警过程中存在的薄弱环节。开展大连市23座大中型水库集总式洪水预报预警系统技术研究,确定研究目标,对系统的功能结构、界面设计、模型建设和系统设计等进行归纳总结,详细介绍了专业支持系统的主要功能模块。研究表明:系统的建设有利于提高水库洪水预报预警水平,进一步完善水库总体防洪减灾体系,防止和减轻水库洪涝灾害,确保城市的防洪安全。     

Comparison of Computer Models for Estimating Hydrology and Water Quality in an Agricultural Watershed

Various computer models, ranging from simple to complex, have been developed to simulate hydrology and water quality from field to watershed scales. However, many users are uncertain about which model to choose when estimating water quantity and quality conditions in a watershed. This study compared hydrologic/water quality models including Spreadsheet Tool for the Estimation of Pollutant Load (STEPL)-Purdue, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), High Impact Targeting (HIT), Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA), Pollutant Load (PLOAD), Spatially and Temporally Distributed Model for Phosphorus Management (STEM-P), Region 5, and ensemble modeling (using STEPL-Purdue, SWAT, L-THIA, PLOAD, and STEM-P). Model capabilities, inputs, and underlying methods to estimate streamflow, surface runoff, baseflow, nutrients, and sediment were examined. Uncalibrated, calibrated, and validated outputs of these models and uncalibrated ensemble modeling in estimating water quantity and quality for a 41.5 km² agricultural watershed in Northeastern Indiana were explored, and suggestions were provided on the selection and use of models. Models need to be selected carefully based on the simulation objectives, data availability, model characteristics, time constraints, and project budgets.

     

流域植被类型对洪水径流影响研究

流域中的植被类型对其水文响应过程有重要影响。现将分布式水文物理模型BTOPMC用于日本富士川流域,利用1993年9月的洪水资料,对不同种类植被的洪水径流过程进行了比较研究。计算结果表明,不同类型的植被对洪峰流量、洪峰时刻、涨水和退水速率都有一定的影响。     

孤山川流域水沙变化趋势的分析

通过对孤山川流域降雨、径流和输沙资料的综合分析,给出了以有效降雨量和降雨强度为参数的预估产水产沙量的经验关系式,以计算值与实测值比较,二者较为吻合。文章还对流域水利水保措施的减水减沙效益进行了估算。     

Seasonality Characteristics and Spatio-temporal Trends of 7-day Low Flows in a Large, Semi-arid Watershed

Seasonality characteristics and spatio-temporal trends of 7-day low flows were investigated for the 41,470 km² semi-arid Karkheh watershed (western Iran), representing 12 stations with record length of 51 years (1958–2008). Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA) was used to identify low-flow seasonality (clusters of low flow seasons). Monotonic trends were detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Breaks in low flow trends were detected by the Lombard’s change point test. Breaks in short-term trends were detected by the Lepage test. According to results seasonal clusters were different in most of the stations, indicating uniqueness in station low flow behaviour. Among the 12 stations studied, four stations showed seasonal monotonic trend and change points, some with abrupt change (change point in consecutive years). Two stations near watershed outlet with no monotonic trend showed abrupt change. Most seasonal change points (dates) compared well with documented droughts, highlighting drought impacts on low flow trends at affected stations. The Lepage test detected change point in seasonal low flow trends of most stations during 5- and 10-year periods. This research has shown that in semi-arid environments low flow seasonality characteristics may vary among stations, an indication that low flow trends should be evaluated individually for each station.     

资水流域水质状况及洪水周期性研究

资水的水量丰富,多暴雨,因此洪涝灾害严重,所以水量的周期性研究有很大的现实意义。文章介绍了资水的水资源状况和水质状况,利用小波分析,对资水的洪峰流量周期性进行研究,发现有着明显的周期性,资水流域的洪峰流量周期主要有23年和18年两个波动,10年以下的周期波动很小。     

DEM分辨率对葫芦河流域径流模拟的影响

选取北洛河支流葫芦河张村驿水文站以上控制区域为研究区域,基于ASTER GDEM V2 30 m DEM数据与张村驿水文站1980—1990年实测流量数据,建立流域月尺度的SWAT水文模型,并评价了模型在该流域的适用性,分析了DEM分辨率对流域水文地形特征提取与径流模拟的影响。结果表明:建立的SWAT模型可以用于研究区域的径流模拟;DEM分辨率对坡度、面积、子流域划分影响较大,对高程提取影响较小;不同分辨率的DEM数据对径流的模拟结果不同,其中120~150 m分辨率模型模拟结果较优,DEM分辨率为150~1 000 m时,模拟结果可满足精度要求但存在一定偏差;各模型均存在低估流量值的现象。     

降水变化和人类活动对浏阳河流域径流的影响

定量评估降水变化和人类活动对浏阳河流域径流的影响,有助于更合理地利用流域水资源。采用线性拟合、滑动平均和累积距平等方法分析了1969—2013年浏阳河流域径流和降水的演变规律及其相关关系,应用累积斜率变化率比较法定量估算了不同时期降水变化和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率。结果表明:浏阳河流域降水量表现为增加趋势,上升率为3 mm/(10 a);年径流量表现为下降趋势,下降率为2.7 (m³·s^-1)/(10 a);降水和径流在1988年和1999年均发生显著性突变,经历了“减少—增多—减少”的交替变换。与基准期1969—1988年相比,1989—1998年和1999—2013年这2个时期的降水量变化对径流量变化贡献率依次为56.8%,7.62%,而人类活动对径流量的贡献率依次为43.2%,92.38%,可见人类活动已成为影响浏阳河流域径流变化的主要因素。     

Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Change on Runoff from a Great Lakes Watershed

Daily VEMAP output from the Hadley Coupled Climate Model (HadCM2) and land use projections from the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments are used to examine the impacts of climate change and land use change on a regional watershed in southeastern lower Michigan. The precipitation, temperature, moisture, and solar radiation output from HadCM2 are processed before they are used as input to a modified version of the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). The modified BATS model (BATS/HYDRO) includes the original 18 BATS land use types along with six new urban land classes as well as an improved surface runoff model, which accounts for impervious surfaces and depression storage. The daily VEMAP output is verified against observations and shown to be appropriate for use as input to the BATS/HYDRO model. The BATS/HYDRO model is then tested with observed NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data and shown to reproduce observed runoff for the period 1990 to 1992 with minimal tuning of initial soil moisture content and daily rainfall distribution. The BATS/HYDRO model is then run using VEMAP output as input for two time periods, 1994 to 2003 and 2090 to 2099 and two land use scenarios, current and future. Model results show that changing climate and changing land use will increase the percentage of precipitation that results in surface runoff from 17.1% to 21.4%. This 4.3% increase is partitioned into a 2.5% increase due to climate change and a 1.6% increase due to land use change.     

Development and Comparison of Two Fast Surrogate Models for Urban Pluvial Flood Simulations

Detailed full hydrodynamic 1D-2D dual drainage models are a well-established approach to simulate urban pluvial floods. However, despite modelling advances and increasing computational power, this approach remains unsuitable for many real time applications. We propose and test two computationally efficient surrogate models. The first approach links a detailed 1D sewer model to a GIS-based overland flood network. For the second approach, we developed a conceptual sewer and flood model using data-driven and physically based structures, and coupled the model to pre-simulated flood maps. The city of Ghent (Belgium) is used as a test case. Both surrogate models can provide comparable results to the original model in terms of peak surface flood volumes and maximum flood extent and depth maps, with a significant reduction in computing time.     

南水流域入库洪水特性及洪水预报分析

该文对南水流域的暴雨洪水特性进行了详细分析,并针对实际特性进行了洪水预报方案制作,经过2008年的实际洪水检验,证明该预报方案可行。南水流域洪水预报为南水电站汛期安全运行和水库优化调度决策提供科学依据。     

潖江流域产汇流浅析

当前对区域的暴雨径流分析研究方法很多,主要是各种模型的研究与建立,利用模型去推求区域的一场暴雨形成的径流量。该文主要利用基本的产汇流理论来对流域的暴雨径流进行分析计算,为区域的防洪、排涝和水资源的利用提供科学参考依据。     

皇甫川流域产流产沙数学模型及水沙变化原因分析

该模型是从泥沙运动力学的基本理论出发，结合水文学，气象，土壤学和地理地貌学的原理建立起来的。并着重解决了在大流域计算中的流域的地理，地貌的差异性和降雨在时空分布上的不均匀性问题。