气候模式模拟中海量数据的并行抽取与可视化分析诊断

在地球动力学和气候模拟等领域, 数值模拟产生的数据规模达到Tb至Pb量级。 实现这些海量数据的实时可视化和实时诊断分析面临很大的困难, 时空多尺度数据抽取可以解决这一瓶颈。 高精度数据的可视化结果展示需要高分辨率的显示设备, 并行的大屏幕显示技术是解决这一问题的有效手段。 地球科学数值模拟、 并行数据抽取和高分辨率显示都需要搭建高性能计算机集群。 本文在基于Lagrange插值的多维度、 多尺度、 多分辨率并行数据抽取算法的同时, 利用并行计算节点及LCD显示器, 基于Rocks cluster系统搭建起一个176核, 4×10×1024×1280分辨率的高性能计算模拟、 数据抽取和并行显示输出的集成平台, 并将该平台成功应用到气候模式模拟产生的海量数据的并行抽取和并行显示。     

GlobeLand30地表数据对北京气候中心气候模式的影响

地表覆盖是陆面及气候模式中的重要基础变量,其数据质量对气候模式性能有显著影响.本文基于一套中国自主研制的全球30m地表覆盖数据(GlobeLand30),利用北京气候中心气候系统模式(Beijing Climate CenterClimateSystemModel,BCC_CSM)中的陆面过程和大气环流分量模式,开展GlobeLand30数据对气候模式性能影响的研究.首先通过GlobeLand30和其他卫星遥感等辅助数据融合细化植被功能型(Plant FunctionType,PFT)类型数据满足BCC_CSM模式需求,然后利用基于面积比例的升尺度方法得到适合于全球模式的不同覆盖类型及其面积百分比数据.GlobeLand30与模式原有覆盖数据都能合理描述全球地表覆盖基本分布特征,但也存在一定差异,其中植被PFT类型的差别最明显.通过数值模拟试验全面评估GlobeLand30数据对模式结果的影响,结果表明在BCC_CSM的陆面模式和大气模式中采用GlobeLand30数据可以合理再现陆面与大气的基本气候特征;更新植被PFT数据的气候效应大于更新冰川和水体类型,综合更新所有覆盖类型数据对模拟结果的影响最大.引入GlobeLand30数据可降低BCC_CSM大气模式对北半球中高纬地区降水的正偏差和南美亚马逊等地区模拟降水的负偏差,以及南半球部分地区大气温度模拟的负偏差,因此GlobeLand30数据适用于BCC_CSM分量模式并对改善模式性能有正贡献.     

三维立体可视化震情会商系统平台设计与实现

随着政府和社会公众对建立现代震情会商系统的需求日益增强,本文尝试应用三维GIS技术和体绘制可视化方法,解决地震会商过程中的多源、海量地学数据的协同可视化问题.设计并实现了三维立体可视化会商系统平台,并在其上将汶川余震分布、数值模拟和华北精细地下三维速度结构等研究成果进行了集成测试.     

基于辛算法模拟探地雷达在复杂地电模型中的传播

近年来,探地雷达(GPR)凭借其快速、高效、无破损等特点,已经广泛应用于浅地层目标探测中.数值模拟是研究探地雷达电磁波在地下结构中传播规律的有效手段.辛算法是一种保持Hamilton系统总能量不变的时域数值计算方法.本文提出了基于一阶显式辛分块龙格库塔方法的探地雷达数值模拟方法.通过对比本文算法与时域有限差分方法计算结果可知,在同等计算精度下,本文算法可以节省25%的计算时间.并基于本文算法对两个复杂GPR模型进行正演模拟,得到模拟GPR探测wiggle图,这有助于更好的理解和分析实测雷达数据.     

Rayleigh波场的数值模拟及其应用

本文总结了Rayleigh波场数值模拟的4种思路和各自特点,根据Lamb问题的理论分析成果提出了基于地表激振的Rayleigh波场数值模拟技术,论述了地表集中震源作用下引起地表波动场的特点及主要影响因素。在此基础上,利用Plaxis 2D有限元软件实现了Rayleigh波场的数值模拟,并结合算例验证了所提方法的可行性和结果的合理性。最后,针对多层建筑结构,研究了不同地震动输入模式下结构动力反应的特点。结果表明,Rayleigh波作用下结构的动力反应特性明显区别于在底部输入剪切波时的结果,不同地震动输入模式对结构的振动形态和破坏模式有着明显的影响。     

桥梁强震动监测、仿真和安全诊断应用研究和展望

在国内外众多破坏性地震中,几乎都有程度不等的桥梁破坏,如倒塌、桥墩倾斜、偏移或沉陷等.本研究的是改进和完善多通道强震动数据采集器的软硬件功能,研发拥有自主技术、价格便宜的多通道数字采集设备;在对国内外桥梁数据分析和结构健康诊断、损伤识别方法综合调研分析的基础上,从理论分析、数值模拟、实验研究及实际桥梁检验4个方面对运营桥梁展开研究;基于实桥实验及观测数据,研发一套可视化的有限元分析与评价软件系统,提供强震监测实际结果与理论计算结果的可视化对比显示,提出符合现行规范的桥梁抗震性能评价结果,为业主决策提供技术支持;研究桥梁监测数据实时接收、汇集与显示技术,及数据分析、有限元分析等子系统与数据库连接的方法与调用技术,开发桥梁监测、安全评估与可视化技术集成的服务平台.     

基于时频分析的中子非弹性散射伽马能谱反演方法

本文针对脉冲中子多循环发射过程中测量的非弹伽马能谱受俘获能谱干扰,引起的油水区分度小的问题,提出了利用时间谱和能谱结合获取纯净非弹伽马能谱的方法.通过蒙特卡罗方法建立C/O仪器数值计算模型,模拟不同井眼和地层条件下的伽马时间谱,分析了井眼和地层对伽马能谱的贡献,对比了俘获伽马时间谱理论计算结果和模拟结果,同时利用某油田刻度井实测数据,验证该方法在评价含油饱和度的可靠性.结果 表明:井眼条件是影响伽马能谱的主控因素;利用理论计算的脉冲区内俘获密度和数值模拟结果一致;采用该方法处理某油田刻度井实测数据,C/O对油、水差异反应更加灵敏度,油水动态范围提高;最终实测井数据也验证了该方法的准确性.     

流固边界耦合介质高阶有限差分地震正演模拟方法

本文针对流固边界耦合介质提出了一种高效、稳定的正演数值模拟方法. 首先,从一阶位移-应力弹性波方程出发,基于海底流固边界的位移和应力的连续性条件,采用三次样条海底界面定量表征方法,推导出不规则海底界面下流固边界耦合介质中的地震波波动方程;其次,通过空间微分的高阶差分格式提高数值模拟的空间精度,并结合已推导的地震波波动方程,将四阶时间微分转换至高阶空间微分,进一步提高了数值模拟的时间精度;最后,在与标量波波动方程数值模拟结果对比分析的基础上,分别利用简单的水平层状模型和复杂海底模型,验证和讨论了本文提出的流固边界耦合介质高阶有限差分地震波正演模拟方法的有效性和准确性.      

井地电磁法三维正演模拟和Born近似反演

本文提出一种数值模拟井地电磁法的方法。用体积分方程法对层状介质中的垂直长导线源三维电磁响应做了三维模拟。模拟的结果与解析解对比误差很小,说明算法是正确的。开发了井地电磁法Born近似反演程序,理论模型合成的数据反演结果非常好。     

基于时空域自适应高阶有限差分的声波叠前逆时偏移

叠前逆时偏移在理论上是现行偏移方法中最为精确的一种成像方法,其实现过程中的核心步骤之一是波动方程的波场延拓,而波场延拓的本质是求解波动方程,所以精确、快速地求解波动方程对逆时偏移至关重要.本文采用一种基于时空域频散关系的有限差分方法来求解声波方程,分析其频散和稳定性,实现波场数值模拟,并将分析和模拟结果与传统有限差分法进行对比.分析结果和模型数值模拟结果都表明时空域有限差分法模拟精度更高、稳定性更好.将时空域高阶有限差分法应用到叠前逆时偏移波场延拓的方程求解中,然后再利用归一化互相关成像条件成像,理论模型数据偏移处理获得了精度更高的成像.同时,在逆时偏移波场延拓的实现中,采用自适应变长度的空间差分算子求解空间导数的有限差分策略,在不影响数值模拟和成像精度的前提下,有效地提高了计算效率.     

A Wavelet Toolkit for Visualization and Analysis of Large Data Sets in Earthquake Research

— Wavelets have a wide range of useful functions that permit them to effectively treat problems such as data compression, scale-localization analysis, feature extraction, visualization, statistics, numerical simulation, and communication. We discuss their features and their use in an integrated manner to handle large-scale problems in earthquake physics and other nonlinear problems in the solid earth geosciences.     

An improved method for evaluating the seasonal variability of total suspended sediment flux field in the Yellow and East China Seas

The suspended sediment flux field in the Yellow and East China Seas(YECS) displays its seasonal variability.A new method is introduced in this paper to obtain the flux field via retrieval of ocean color remote sensing data,statistical analysis of historical suspended sediment concentration data,and numerical simulation of three-dimensional(3D) flow velocity.The components of the sediment flux field include(i) surface suspended sediment concentration inverted from ocean color remote sensing data;(ii) vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration obtained by statistical analysis of historical observation data;and(iii) 3D flow field modeled by a numerical simulation.With the improved method,the 3D suspended sediment flux field in the YECS has been illustrated.By comparison with the suspended sediment flux field solely based on the numerical simulation of a suspended sediment transport model,the suspended sediment flux field obtained by the improved method is found to be more reliable.The 3D suspended sediment flux field from ocean colour remote sensing and in situ observation are more closer to the reality.Furthermore,by quantitatively analyzing the newly obtained suspended sediment flux field,the quantity of sediment erosion and deposition within the different regions can be evaluated.The sediment exchange between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea can be evident.The mechanism of suspended sediment transport in the YECS can be better understood.In particular,it is suggested that the long-term transport of suspended sediment is controlled mainly by the circulation pattern,especially the current in winter.     

大尺度水文模型TOPX构建及其与区域环境系统集成模式RIEMS的耦合

基于改进型SIMTOP参数化径流方案和新安江模型的三层土壤水量平衡计算方法,本文构建了一个输入数据和率定参数较少、同时具有地形指数尺度转换机制、较好描述二维水文过程的简单高效的大尺度水文模型TOPX,并将其与区域环境系统集成模式RIEMS紧密耦合,以增强区域气候模式对大尺度流域径流量的定量数值模拟能力．TOPX模型在酉水河流域和泾河流域的离线测试表明：该模型对小尺度流域的径流量模拟精度较高,能够较好地描述流域水文变化过程;同时,该模型在大尺度上具有较强的分布式模拟能力,能够捕捉陆面水文过程的主要特征和时空演变特点．TOPX与RIEMS的耦合模式在泾河流域进行了在线测试,借助TOPX模型中的地形指数降尺度转换和水文过程产汇流机制,耦合模式实现了利用区域气候模式模拟的气象资料来驱动水文模型进行大尺度流域日径流量的模拟．进一步分析还表明：区域气候模式RIEMS模拟的降水时空分布数据的精度是影响耦合模式对径流量模拟效果的关键因素．     

基于可视化遥感的地震大区域灾情收集系统

地震现场与一般灾害现场不同,其受灾区域较大,常规的基于遥感信息进行灾情收集时,采集信息零散混乱无法形成可视化直观分析结果。为解决该问题,设计基于可视化遥感技术的地震大区域灾情收集系统,利用遥感信息采集大区域的优势,配合设计网络通信层、数据收集层、数据库层、GIS遥感平台层和应用层组成的系统硬件,采用GIS三维重构技术,对灾情进行可视化呈现。实验结果说明,系统最长响应时间为1.857 s,最大CPU占用率和消耗分别是80.8%和1 656 MB,信息可视化重现程度高。     

Numerical simulation and data assimilation of the water-energy cycle over semiarid northeastern China

The default fractional vegetation cover and terrain height were replaced by the estimated fractional vegetation cover, which was calculated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of Earth Observing System Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(EOS-MODIS) and the Digital Elevation Model of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM) system. The near-surface meteorological elements over northeastern China were assimilated into the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system(3DVar) module in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model. The structure and daily variations of air temperature, humidity, wind and energy fields over northeastern China were simulated using the WRF model. Four groups of numerical experiments were performed, and the simulation results were analyzed of latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and their relationships with changes in the surface energy flux due to soil moisture and precipitation over different surfaces. The simulations were compared with observations of the stations Tongyu, Naiman, Jinzhou, and Miyun from June to August, 2009. The results showed that the WRF model achieves high-quality simulations of the diurnal characteristics of the surface layer temperature, wind direction, net radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux over semiarid northeastern China in the summer. The simulated near-surface temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were improved in the data assimilation case(Case 2) compared with control case(Case 1). The simulated sensible heat fluxes and surface heat fluxes were improved by the land surface parameterization case(Case 3) and the combined case(Case 4). The simulated temporal variations in soil moisture over the northeastern arid areas agree well with observations in Case 4, but the simulated precipitation should be improved in the WRF model. This study could improve the land surface parameters by utilizing remote sensing data and could further improve atmospheric elements with a data assimilation system. This work provides an effective attempt at combining multi-source data with different spatial and temporal scales into numerical simulations. The assimilation datasets generated by this work can be applied to research on climate change and environmental monitoring of arid lands, as well as research on the formation and stability of climate over semiarid areas.     

Climate effects of the GlobeLand30 land cover dataset on the Beijing Climate Center climate model simulations

Land cover is one of the most basic input elements of land surface and climate models. Currently, the direct and indirect effects of land cover data on climate and climate change are receiving increasing attentions. In this study, a high resolution (30 m) global land cover dataset (GlobeLand30) produced by Chinese scientists was, for the first time, used in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) to assess the influences of land cover dataset on land surface and climate simulations. A two-step strategy was designed to use the GlobeLand30 data in the model. First, the GlobeLand30 data were merged with other satellite remote sensing and climate datasets to regenerate plant functional type (PFT) data fitted for the BCC_CSM. Second, the up-scaling based on an area-weighted approach was used to aggregate the fine-resolution GlobeLand30 land cover type and area percentage with the coarser model grid resolutions globally. The GlobeLand30-based and the BCC_CSM-based land cover data had generally consistent spatial distribution features, but there were some differences between them. The simulation results of the different land cover type dataset change experiments showed that effects of the new PFT data were larger than those of the new glaciers and water bodies (lakes and wetlands). The maximum value was attained when dataset of all land cover types were changed. The positive bias of precipitation in the mid-high latitude of the northern hemisphere and the negative bias in the Amazon, as well as the negative bias of air temperature in part of the southern hemisphere, were reduced when the GlobeLand30-based data were used in the BCC_CSM atmosphere model. The results suggest that the GlobeLand30 data are suitable for use in the BCC_CSM component models and can improve the performance of the land and atmosphere simulations.     

Coupling the WRF model with a temperature index model based on remote sensing for snowmelt simulations in a river basin in the Altay Mountains,north‐west China

Snowmelt water is an important freshwater resource in the Altay Mountains in north‐west China; however, warming climate and rapid spring snowmelt can cause floods that endanger both public and personal property and safety. This study simulates snowmelt in the Kayiertesi River catchment using a temperature index model based on remote sensing coupled with high‐resolution meteorological data obtained from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis fields that were downscaled using the Weather Research Forecasting model and then bias corrected using a statistical downscaled model. Validation of the forcing data revealed that the high‐resolution meteorological fields derived from the downscaled NCEP reanalysis were reliable for driving the snowmelt model. Parameters of the temperature index model based on remote sensing were calibrated for spring 2014, and model performance was validated using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover and snow observations from spring 2012. The results show that the temperature index model based on remote sensing performed well, with a simulation mean relative error of 6.7% and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98 in spring 2012 in the river of Altay Mountains. Based on the reliable distributed snow water equivalent simulation, daily snowmelt run‐off was calculated for spring 2012 in the basin. In the study catchment, spring snowmelt run‐off accounts for 72% of spring run‐off and 21% of annual run‐off. Snowmelt is the main source of run‐off for the catchment and should be managed and utilized effectively. The results provide a basis for snowmelt run‐off predictions, so as to prevent snowmelt‐induced floods, and also provide a generalizable approach that can be applied to other remote locations where high‐density, long‐term observational data are lacking. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A runoff map based on numerically simulated precipitation and a projection of future runoff in Iceland / Une carte d'écoulement basée sur la précipitation numériquement simulée et un scénario du futur écoulement en Islande

Abstract

The runoff of Iceland has been evaluated for the period 1961–1990, and changes in runoff from then to the period 2071–2100 predicted according to a future projection of climate change. The hydrological model WASIM-ETH was used, with meteorological data from the PSU/NCAR MM5 numerical weather model. The evaluation of the effects of climate change on water resources was based on a future climate simulation from the HIRHAM regional climate model with boundary conditions from the HadAM3H global climate model using A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. Future runoff was shown to become much higher in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990, predominantly due to increased glacial melt caused by increased temperature. Furthermore, changes in runoff seasonality would be substantial. Thus, according to this projection there could be great changes in hydropower production potential associated with climate change in Iceland.     

湖泊湿地水文过程研究进展

湖泊湿地是世界上最重要的生态系统之一,在调蓄洪水、净化环境、保护生物多样性以及为人类提供淡水和食物等方面发挥着不可替代的作用.然而,受气候变化和人类活动叠加影响,湖泊湿地水文过程发生了剧烈变化,湖泊湿地面临着面积萎缩、质量下降和服务功能退化等风险.本文总结了原位观测、数值模拟和遥感技术在获取湖泊湿地关键水文要素方面的优...