Simulation-based ripple effect modelling in the supply chain

In light of low-frequency/high-impact disruptions, the ripple effect has recently been introduced into academic literature on supply chain management. The ripple effect in the supply chain results from disruption propagation from the initial disruption point to the supply, production and distribution networks. While optimisation modelling dominates this research field, the potential of simulation modelling still remains under-explored. The objective of this study is to reveal research gaps that can be closed with the help of simulation modelling. First, recent literature on both optimisation and simulation modelling is analysed. Second, a simulation model for multi-stage supply chain design with consideration of capacity disruptions and experimental results is presented in order to depict major areas of simulation application to the ripple effect modelling. Based on both literature analysis and the modelling example, managerial insights and future research areas are identified in regard to simulation modelling application to the ripple effect analysis in the supply chain. The paper concludes by summarising the most important insights and outlining a future research agenda.     

Revealing interfaces of supply chain resilience and sustainability: a simulation study

Dynamics of structures and processes is one of the underlying challenges in supply chain management, where multiple dimensions of economic efficiency, risk management and sustainability are interconnected. One of the substantiated issues in supply chain dynamics is resilience. Resilience has a number of intersections with supply chain sustainability. This paper aims at analysing disruption propagation in the supply chain with consideration of sustainability factors in order to design resilient supply chain structure in regard to ripple effect mitigation and sustainability increase. Ripple effect in the supply chain occurs if a disruption at a supplier cannot be localised and cascades downstream impacting supply chain performance. This simulation-based study helps to identify what sustainability factors mitigate the ripple effect in the supply chain and what sustainability factors enhance this effect. The results indicate that (i) sustainable single sourcing enhances the ripple effect; (ii) facility fortification at major employers in regions mitigates the ripple effect and enhances sustainability; and (iii) a reduction in storage facilities in the supply chain downstream of a disruption-risky facility increases sustainability but causes the ripple effect.     

A control engineering approach to the assessment of supply chain resilience

There is no consensus on the supply chain management definition of resilience. To aid in evaluating the dynamic behaviour of such systems we need to establish clearly elucidated performance criteria that encapsulate the attributes of resilience. A literature review establishes the latter as readiness, responsiveness and recovery. We also identify robustness as a necessary condition that would complement resilience. We find that the Integral of the Time Absolute Error (ITAE) is an appropriate control engineering measure of resilience when it is applied to inventory levels and shipment rates. We use the ITAE to evaluate an often used benchmark model of make-to-stock supply chains consisting of three decision parameters. We use both linear and nonlinear forms of the model in our evaluation. Our findings suggest that optimum solutions for resilience do not yield a system that is robust to uncertainties in lead-time. Hence supply chains will experience drastic changes in their resilience performance when lead-time changes.     

Scheduling of recovery actions in the supply chain with resilience analysis considerations

Supply chain engineering models with resilience considerations have been mostly focused on disruption impact quantification within one analysis layer, such as supply chain design or planning. Performance impact of disruptions has been typically analysed without scheduling of recovery actions. Taking into account schedule recovery actions and their duration times, this study extends the existing literature to supply chain scheduling and resilience analysis by an explicit integration of the optimal schedule recovery policy and supply chain resilience. In particular, we compute a schedule optimal control policy and analyse the performance of this policy by varying the perturbation vector and representing the outcomes of variations in the form of an attainable set. We propose a scheduling model that considers the coordination of recovery actions in the supply chain. Further, we suggest a resilience index by using the notion of attainable sets. The attainable sets are known in control theory; their calculation is based on the schedule control model results and the minimax regret approach for continuous time parameters given by intervals. We show that the proposed indicator can be used to estimate the impact of disruption and recovery dynamics on the achievement of planned performance in the supply chain.     

Roles of inventory and reserve capacity in mitigating supply chain disruption risk

This research focuses on managing disruption risk in supply chains using inventory and reserve capacity under stochastic demand. While inventory can be considered as a speculative risk mitigation lever, reserve capacity can be used in a reactive fashion when a disruption occurs. We determine optimal inventory levels and reserve capacity production rates for a firm that is exposed to supply chain disruption risk. We fully characterise four main risk mitigation strategies: inventory strategy, reserve capacity strategy, mixed strategy and passive acceptance. We illustrate how the optimal risk mitigation strategy depends on product characteristics (functional versus innovative) and supply chain characteristics (agile versus efficient). This work is inspired from a risk management problem of a leading pharmaceutical company.     

The impact of digital technology and Industry 4.0 on the ripple effect and supply chain risk analytics

The impact of digitalisation and Industry 4.0 on the ripple effect and disruption risk control analytics in the supply chain (SC) is studied. The research framework combines the results from two isolated areas, i.e. the impact of digitalisation on SC management (SCM) and the impact of SCM on the ripple effect control. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that connects business, information, engineering and analytics perspectives on digitalisation and SC risks. This paper does not pretend to be encyclopedic, but rather analyses recent literature and case-studies seeking to bring the discussion further with the help of a conceptual framework for researching the relationships between digitalisation and SC disruptions risks. In addition, it emerges with an SC risk analytics framework. It analyses perspectives and future transformations that can be expected in transition towards cyber-physical SCs. With these two frameworks, this study contributes to the literature by answering the questions of (1) what relations exist between big data analytics, Industry 4.0, additive manufacturing, advanced trace & tracking systems and SC disruption risks; (2) how digitalisation can contribute to enhancing ripple effect control; and (3) what digital technology-based extensions can trigger the developments towards SC risk analytics.     

‘A blessing in disguise’ or ‘as if it wasn’t hard enough already’: reciprocal and aggravate vulnerabilities in the supply chain

We investigate the interrelations of structural and operational vulnerabilities in the supply chain (SC) using discrete-event simulation for a real life case study. We theorise a notion of SC overlays and explore conditions surrounding their appearance. Such overlays occur if the negative consequences of changes in a SC structure as a result of a disruption are either amplified or mitigated by changes in the operational environment. We hypothesise that these overlays can be both reciprocal (i.e. complementary or mitigating) and aggravate (i.e. concurrent or enhancing). Our approach can be used for an efficient management of SC resilience capabilities by varying their levels over time. We show different ripple and bullwhip effect profiles, which lead to either reciprocal or aggravate overlays, and then we develop recommendations on the overlay-driven dynamic variation of resilience capability levels in order to enhance both SC resilience and efficiency through dynamic redundancy allocation. The results can be of value in selecting and deploying operational policies at the right time and scale during and after the recovery periods. Restricting analysis to the disruption period only and ignoring operational dynamics after capacity recovery can result in misleading or inefficient SC resilience and recovery policies.     

Analysing the interaction of factors for resilient humanitarian supply chain

Emergencies and disasters place an exceptional demand on the managerial skills of the humanitarian aid community. Most of the developing countries lack in such kind of resilience and effective humanitarian supply chain. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to identify and analyse the factors to develop the resilience in the humanitarian supply chain. Based on the literature review, total 12 factors related to resilient humanitarian supply chain have been identified. Some of these factors are process oriented and some are result oriented. Interpretive structural modelling with Fuzzy MICMAC analysis is used to develop structural relationships among these factors and to find the driving and the dependence power of these factors. Government support, strategy and capacity planning; and continuous assessment of project progress have emerged as the major drivers for the development of resilient humanitarian supply chain. By managing these driving factors, humanitarian aid programme can be made resilient and agile. The findings will be useful for the humanitarian aid agencies to develop effective and sustainable aid relief programme.     

Ripple effect modelling of supplier disruption: integrated Markov chain and dynamic Bayesian network approach

The ripple effect can occur when a supplier base disruption cannot be localised and consequently propagates downstream the supply chain (SC), adversely affecting performance. While stress-testing of SC designs and assessment of their vulnerability to disruptions in a single-echelon-single-event setting is desirable and indeed critical for some firms, modelling the ripple effect impact in multi-echelon-correlated-events systems is becoming increasingly important. Notably, ripple effect assessment in multi-stage SCs is particularly challenged by the need to consider both vulnerability and recoverability capabilities at individual firms in the network. We construct a new model based on integration of Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) and a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to quantify the ripple effect. We use the DTMC to model the recovery and vulnerability of suppliers. The proposed DTMC model is then equalised with a DBN model in order to simulate the propagation behaviour of supplier disruption in the SC. Finally, we propose a metric that quantifies the ripple effect of supplier disruption on manufacturers in terms of total expected utility and service level. This ripple effect metric is applied to two case studies and analysed. The findings suggest that our model can be of value in uncovering latent high-risk paths in the SC, analysing the performance impact of both a disruption and its propagation, and prioritising contingency and recovery policies.     

Does the ripple effect influence the bullwhip effect? An integrated analysis of structural and operational dynamics in the supply chain†

The ripple effect refers to structural dynamics and describes a downstream propagation of the downscaling in demand fulfilment in the supply chain (SC) as a result of a severe disruption. The bullwhip effect refers to operational dynamics and amplifies in the upstream direction as ordering oscillations. Being interested in uncovering if the ripple effect can be a driver of the bullwhip effect, we performed a simulation-based study to investigate the interrelations of the structural and operational dynamics in the SC. The results advance our knowledge about both ripple and bullwhip effects and reveal, for the first time, that the ripple effect can be a bullwhip-effect driver, while the latter can be launched by a severe disruption even in the downstream direction. The findings show that the ripple effect influences the bullwhip effect through backlog accumulation over the disruption time as a consequence of non-coordinated ordering and production planning policies. To cope with this effect, a contingent production-inventory control policy is proposed that provides results in favour of information coordination in SC disruption management to mitigate both ripple and bullwhip effects. The SC managers need to take into account the risk of bullwhip effect during the capacity disruption and recovery periods.     

Disruptive technologies for advancing supply chain resilience

Disruptive technologies provide a new paradigm for supply chain risk management and bring opportunities and challenges for the improvement of supply chain resilience (SCRes). This study summarizes the application cases of some disruptive technologies in the SCRes and analyzes the benefits and damages brought by disruptive technologies to the SCRes. The results show that disruptive technologies can provide the supply chain with flexibility, visibility, agility, and other capabilities at various stages of risk management. Hence, technology advancements greatly increase the level of the SCRes. Although disruptive technologies undermine the construction of SCRes, these damages can be eliminated through technology iteration or other disruptive technologies. Furthermore, disruptive technologies will provide better stability for the SCRes. The study also makes several suggestions for the use of disruptive technologies in the construction of the SCRes.     

Methods for mitigating disruptions in complex supply chain structures: a systematic literature review

Supply chain risk management is extremely important for the success of a company. Due to the increasing complexity of supply chains, avoiding and mitigating the effects of disruptions is very challenging. This article presents the results of a systematic literature review and content analysis in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the methods that are currently used for mitigating supply chain disruptions. The results of the review indicate that research in this field is interdisciplinary and that no common modelling language has emerged thus far. Prior research mostly redraws to graph theory and/or social network analysis, although a few methods have been developed recently specifically for supply chain risk management. We observe that prior contributions addressed risk and structure mostly separately and that only a few works focused on their intersection. The results of this review are consolidated in a research agenda that calls for research on the risk-structure-interface and the development of proxy methods.     

Information management strategies and supply chain performance under demand disruptions

The operations management literature presents inadequate comprehensive understanding on information management strategies of mitigating supply chain disruption risks. By using control theory modelling and simulation, this study compares the disruption mitigation effects of three information management strategies. From the aspect of stability, the existing stability boundaries are revised by a new method in a two-echelon case. It shows that supply chains (SC) with popular information management strategies are not evidently more stable than traditional ones. From the aspect of disruption recovery time, an innovative two-echelon swiftest response problem under these information management strategies is formulated and solved. Results show that a collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) SC with complete SC information performs the best. However, in a later operational risk mitigation test, an information sharing (IS) SC with partial information has the smallest bullwhip effect. From the aspect of demand amplification and frequency response, an innovative frequency–response plot of order amplification is proposed in a time-continuous SC with moving average forecasts. It implies the best frequency response for concurrently mitigating both operational and disruption risks coming from a CPFR SC. But for a certain SC structure there is still a balance between mitigating bullwhip effect and quick response. Moreover, it also implies that anti-bullwhip should exist in a certain condition, as realised in our numerical experiments.     

Sustainable supply chains for supply chain sustainability: impact of sustainability efforts on supply chain risk

Supply chain managers across the globe are finding it difficult to manage the increasingly complex supply chains despite adopting a variety of risk mitigation strategies. Firms on the other hand have also been adopting various kinds of environmental and social sustainability practices in recent times to reduce carbon footprint and improve their image on the social front. However, very few studies in the extant literature have examined the impact of sustainability practices on supply chain risk. We address this important gap in literature by empirically testing this relationship, using primary data from six manufacturing sectors and 21 different countries including developed as well as emerging markets across the globe. Our findings indicate that risk mitigation strategies do not always reduce the actual supply chain risk experienced by firms, whereas sustainability efforts help reduce supply chain risk, especially in emerging market contexts. In addition, we find that, while reactive risk mitigation strategies on their own fail to reduce supply chain risk, they are effective when used in conjunction with sustainability efforts. We also find that preventive risk mitigation efforts are only effective in mature supply chains such as the OECD countries.     

A graph-based model to measure structural redundancy for supply chain resilience

Globalisation and lean initiatives increase the vulnerabilities of the supply chains (SC), where disruptions in any plant in a supply chain network (SCN) can propagate throughout the whole SCN. Redundancy is part of the SC re-engineering to improve supply chain resilience (SCRES). This paper presents a conceptual model of an SCN using graph theory, considering the relationships between plants and materials. Based on the model, the structural redundancy of the SCN is measured, which is used to assess SCRES. This assessment approach focuses on the resilience of the SCN against disruptions. Case studies are discussed to illustrate the applicability of this model and show that increasing structural redundancy of the SCN improves SCRES against disruptions.     

Viability of intertwined supply networks: extending the supply chain resilience angles towards survivability. A position paper motivated by COVID-19 outbreak

An intertwined supply network (ISN) is an entirety of interconnected supply chains (SC) which, in their integrity secure the provision of society and markets with goods and services. The ISNs are open systems with structural dynamics since the firms may exhibit multiple behaviours by changing the buyer-supplier roles in interconnected or even competing SCs. From the positions of resilience, the ISNs as a whole provide services to society (e.g. food service, mobility service or communication service) which are required to ensure a long-term survival. The analysis of survivability at the level of ISN requires a consideration at a large scale as resilience of individual SCs. The recent example of coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak clearly shows the necessity of this new perspective. Our study introduces a new angle in SC resilience research when a resistance to extraordinary disruptions needs to be considered at the scale of viability. We elaborate on the integrity of the ISN and viability. The contribution of our position study lies in a conceptualisation of a novel decision-making environment of ISN viability. We illustrate the viability formation through a dynamic game-theoretic modelling of a biological system that resembles the ISN. We discuss some future research areas.     

Supply chain resilience for single and multiple sourcing in the presence of disruption risks

This paper investigates the use of sourcing strategies to achieve supply chain resilience under disruptions. The coping strategies considered are single and multiple sourcing, backup supplier contracts, spot purchasing, and collaboration and visibility. Collaboration and visibility, which affect suppliers’ recovery capabilities and a buyer’s warning capability, have not been similarly modelled in the past. A scenario-based mathematical model is developed such that it considers objectives under uncertainties including disruption risks and operational risks. A broad numerical study examines its output for various risk attitudes in a decision-maker, ranging from risk neutral to risk averse. The sensitivity of procurement strategies to other key parameters such as recovery and warning capabilities is examined. One of the major findings is that buyer’s warning capability plays a vital role in enhancing supply chain resilience. We seek to build on these efforts to further support disruption planning and mitigation and to obtain a deeper understanding of the relationship between supply chain characteristics and resilience.     

Procurement decisions and information sharing under multi-tier disruption risk in a supply chain

We consider a manufacturer's procurement decision in a three-tier supply chain (SC) under disruption risk. The manufacturer sources components from a single first-tier supplier (FT). The FT, in turn, sources raw materials from a single second-tier supplier (ST). Suppliers in both tiers are unreliable, i.e. prone to disruption risk. Increasing SC visibility through information sharing is a potential disruption management strategy for the manufacturer. While the manufacturer can obtain disruption risk information for the FT, disruption risk information for the ST is not easily accessible to the manufacturer except through the FT, who may not be willing to share ST information. We study different mechanisms under which the manufacturer can obtain ST information, and its impact on manufacturer's and FT's decisions and potential profits. We show that information sharing makes the manufacturer's procurement decisions more conservative, i.e. carrying more inventories, but the FT's procurement decision is contingent on the ST's reliability; more proactive (conservative) when ST is unreliable (reliable), i.e. carrying less (more) inventories. We demonstrate that there are two ways to induce the FT to share its information, and numerically show that their effectiveness is contingent on multiple factors, including FT and ST reliabilities and information sharing costs.     

Evaluation mechanism for structural robustness of supply chain considering disruption propagation

This paper aims to develop a novel evaluation mechanism for assessing the structural robustness of a supply chain considering disruption propagation. Disruption propagation means that the impact of risks propagates to the whole supply chain along the connected structure. Based on the propagation model, a structural robustness evaluation mechanism is devised by integrating two quantitative metrics, average path length and in degree-out degree. To validate the proposed mechanism, the result of the quantitative assessment of the structural robustness on random networks is compared with the probability of network disruption due to the random risk. From the results of the statistical verifications and sensitivity analysis, it can be said that the proposed mechanism is better at explaining the robustness of a supply chain. In other words, all components of a network, such as nodes and arcs, and their relationships should be considered altogether, in order to more accurately measure the robustness. It may be possible to apply the proposed mechanism to the very first step of designing the supply chain. Especially, in the case of it being hard to redesign a supply chain structure after practically launching and operating the designed network, the proposed mechanism may be utilised to verify whether the planned supply chain is robust to risks or not.     

The impact of supply chain disruption on the closed-loop supply chain configuration profit: a study of sourcing policies

A closed-loop supply chain configuration (CLSCC) encompasses the decisions related to the optimal selection of options at each stage of a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) for the introduction and reconstruction of new products. The extant literature ignores the impact of supply chain disruptions on CLSCC. An attempt is made to fill this gap in this study. Thus, an integrated multi-sourcing CLSCC optimisation model for new and reconstructed products is developed. The optimisation model presented is a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model. Based on a real-world case study of an auto-parts manufacturer in India presented, a comprehensive set of computational experiments, scenario analyses are conducted. The key finding/observation that resulted from our computational experiments is that multi-sourcing generates higher net present value of total profit compared to single sourcing under the risk of supply chain disruption. Several other observations and managerial insights are drawn from computational experiments, and scenario analyses. Firms interested in configuring their CLSC under the risk of supply chain disruption may use the study's outcomes to understand the profit impact of various CLSCC parameters, individually and in combination.