REPEATED MORAL HAZARD AND CONTRACTS WITH MEMORY: THE CASE OF RISK‐NEUTRALITY*

We consider a repeated moral hazard problem where both the principal and the wealth‐constrained agent are risk‐neutral. In each of two periods, the agent can exert unobservable effort, leading to success or failure. Incentives provided in the second period act as carrot and stick for the first period, so that the effort level induced in the second period is higher after a first‐period success than after a failure. If renegotiation cannot be prevented, the principal may prefer a project with lower returns; i.e., a project may be “too good” to be financed or, similarly, an agent can be “overqualified.”     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ALLOCATION OF DECISION‐MAKING ACROSS STAKEHOLDER GROUPS: THE CASE OF PERSONAL CARE INDUSTRIES

ABSTRACT 1 : The article compares the allocation of decision‐making across stakeholder groups in for‐profit, nonprofit and local government personal care facilities in one state in the United States. We analyze detailed survey data on nursing homes, childcare centers and group homes. We find that in comparison to nonprofit and government organizations, for‐profit firms delegate more decision‐making power to executives and owners, and less to their employees, consumers, families, boards of directors, and community representatives. The differences, although generally small, support the hypothesis that decision‐making is allocated to different groups in accord with the broad objectives of the organization.     

不确定性条件下的房地产价格决定:随机模型和经验分析

本文通过构造一个随机最优控制模型,分析了不确定性环境下房地产价格的决定因素。理论结果与经验证据显示,房地产价格受按揭贷款额度、按揭贷款利率、居民财富等多种因素的影响。我们还检验了近年来央行为抑制房地产价格上涨过快所实施加息政策的效果。实证结论表明,抵押贷款利率对房地产价格的影响虽然具有统计显著性,但是它缺乏经济显著性。在短期内,抵押贷款利率工具对控制房价的实际作用不明显,我国最近几年来央行所颁布的加息政策缺乏预期的效果。另外,由于居民适应性预期的作用,房地产价格自身的变动冲击是导致房地产价格上涨的主要因素,居民收入虽然也在一定程度上导致了房地产价格的上涨,但是其作用较小。     

A DYNAMIC DECISION MODEL OF MARRIAGE,CHILDBEARING, AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN IN JAPAN*

This paper empirically examines marriage, child bearing and labour force participation behaviour of fertile‐aged women in Japan, applying an estimable dynamic model of dis‐crete choice. Using microdata from the 1994–1999 Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers, the structural estimation result suggests that, overall, women are worse off with marriage and part‐time work without financial benefits. Women are better off having two or more children, but considerably worse off because of the burden of raising infants. In addition, probabilities of finding full‐time work after career interruption are estimated at about 18% for university educated women and 12–13% for less educated women.     

ECONOMIC MODELLING OF SUICIDE UNDER INCOME UNCERTAINTY: FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF MIDDLE‐AGED SUICIDE*

This paper formalises an individual's decision about suicide within a framework of lifetime utility maximisation models. This is in line with the literature on economic modelling of suicide. The novelty of the paper is to take into account income uncertainty. Income uncertainty reduces a risk‐averse individual's expected utility, making them more likely to commit suicide. On the other hand, income uncertainty creates a value to postponing suicide even when their income gets sufficiently low. This is because income uncertainty means that if things go well, they will get higher income in the future. Thus, income uncertainty has two opposite effects on suicidal behaviour. The main objective of this paper is to construct an economic model of suicide for investigating net impacts of income uncertainty on suicidal behaviour. For this purpose, it is assumed that the wage evolves according to a stochastic process. Then, the threshold wage, below which an individual commits suicide, is derived as a function of the parameters of the stochastic process assumed for the wage evolution. Impacts of changes in these parameters on the threshold wage are calculated. With the result, the paper shows how income uncertainty affects suicidal behaviour.     

MODELING INTERNAL DECISION MAKING PROCESS: AN EXPLANATION OF CONFLICTING EMPIRICAL RESULTS ON BEHAVIOR OF NON‐PROFIT AND FOR‐PROFIT HOSPITALS

This article develops multiobjective models of hospital decision making that incorporate the internal decision process in both a for‐profit and a non‐profit hospital (NPH). Predicted output and quality for an NPH differ from those for a for‐profit hospital under some conditions but converge under others. Convergence may be the result of a complex internal decision structure with decision control primarily by physicians, similar objectives across different organizational forms, or differing constraints. The mechanisms underlying these outcomes provide explanations for conflicting results in empirical studies of non‐profit and for‐profit hospitals and provide a different rationale for convergence than non‐profit response to competition from for‐profit hospitals. Understanding the source of convergence is important for policies directed toward the tax treatment of NPHs.(JEL D21, D23, I11, L3, L21)     

GROUP DECISION MAKING WITH UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES: UNPACKING CHILD–PARENT CHOICE OF THE HIGH SCHOOL TRACK

Predicting group decisions under uncertainty requires disentangling individual members' utilities over the consequences of choice, their expectations for uncertain outcomes, and their choice process as a group. I estimate simple Bayesian models of child–parent choice of high school track with subjective risk and unilateral or bilateral, nonstrategic decisions, by combining families' actual choices with novel survey information about children's and parents' subjective probabilities over choice consequences, their individually preferred choices, and their decision roles. A set of policy counterfactuals confirms the importance of introducing the beliefs and decision roles of individual members in models and policy analysis of group decisions.     

BARGAINING WITH OPTIMISM: IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A MODEL OF MEDICAL MALPRACTICE LITIGATION

We study a model of bargaining with optimism where players have heterogeneous beliefs about the final resolution. Beliefs and bargaining surplus are identified from the settlement probability and the distribution of accepted transfers. Using data from medical malpractice lawsuits in Florida, we estimate doctor and patient beliefs and the distribution of potential compensation. We find that patients are more optimistic and doctors more pessimistic when the severity of injury is higher, and the joint optimism diminishes as severity increases. We quantify the increase in settlement probability and the reduction in accepted settlement offers under counterfactual caps on the total compensation.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF HOUSING DEMAND: ESTIMATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS*

Using data from the PSID, we estimate a dynamic model of housing demand with nonconvex adjustment costs, credit constraints, and uncertainty about income and home prices. We simulate how consumer behavior responds to house price and income declines as well as tightening credit. In response to a negative home price shock, households early in the life cycle climb the housing ladder more quickly and invest more in housing assets due to the lower price. With a concurrent negative income shock, however, housing demand falls among young and middle aged households who stay in smaller homes rather than to trade up.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF TOURISM, EMPLOYMENT AND WELFARE: THE CASE OF HONG KONG

Abstract.  The present paper uses a dynamic open-economy model with wage indexation to examine the impact of tourism on employment and welfare. Both short-run and long-run situations are analysed. It is well known that tourism converts non-traded goods into tradable goods. An increase in the demand for a non-traded good raises its relative price, which results in an expansion of the non-traded sector at the expense of the traded goods sector. This output shift raises labour employment in the short run. However, in the long run, the higher relative price leads to higher wages, resulting in a negative impact on labour employment. If the output effect is dominant, the expansion in tourism raises employment and welfare. However, under realistic conditions tourism may lower both labour employment and welfare due to rising costs. These results are demonstrated by simulating a dynamic model for the case of Hong Kong.     

WAGE SIGNALING: A DYNAMIC MODEL OF INTRAFIRM BARGAINING AND ASYMMETRIC LEARNING*

The article analyzes the effect of employer–worker bargaining on wage dynamics in the presence of asymmetric information between current and potential employers. A failure to reach an agreement leads to output loss. Because the disagreement points depend upon the worker's productivity, productive workers separate themselves from less productive workers and signal their ability through wages. In existing models of asymmetric learning, wages are attached to publicly observable characteristics and wage growth occurs only when there is a change in observable characteristics. This model, in contrast, generates an increase in earnings dispersion in cohorts of workers with similar observable characteristics.     

A MODEL OF SELF‐FULFILLING FINANCIAL CRISES*

This paper combines the structural weakness and the self‐fulfilling panic view to explain the cause of the East Asian crises. In this model economy, the diversification strategies induce conglomerate firms to overinvest. They accumulate losses due to their unprofitable sectors and then compensate by obtaining bank loans. Domestic banks, which borrow from foreign banks, lend money as long as the total amount of accumulated loans remains within the firms’ collateral value. The model shows that if the debt to collateral value ratio belongs to a certain range a self‐fulfilling crisis can occur due to the self‐fulfilling expectations of foreign investors.     

TURNPIKE PROPERTIES OF A MONEY‐IN‐THE‐UTILITY‐FUNCTION MODEL*

This study establishes the global stability of a long‐run stationary state in a money‐in‐the‐utility‐function model. The major finding is that the constant money supply rule results in a stable allocation and price system if consumers discount their future utilities sufficiently weakly. Nominal and real interest rates will be in the neighbourhood of the inverse of the consumers’ discount factor β^‐1.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF CLEANUP: ESTIMATING SUNK COSTS IN OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

The environmental remediation required to permanently decommission most industrial projects is an expensive, irreversible investment. Real options literature shows that temporary closure has value under uncertainty. However, even if there is no intention to restart operations, there is an incentive to label a closure as “temporary” to avoid having to remediate ongoing or future environmental externalities. I estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of closure under price and quantity uncertainty to evaluate the likelihood of reactivation. The model reveals that the option to temporarily close is being widely used to avoid environmental remediation of oil and gas wells in Canada.     

BENCHMARKING FOR PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT: A HEALTH‐CARE APPLICATION*

A methodology is developed and applied to compare the performance of publicly funded agencies providing treatment for alcohol abuse in Maine. The methodology estimates a Wiener process that determines the duration of completed treatments, while allowing for agency differences in the effectiveness of treatment, costs of treatment, standards for completion of treatment, patient attrition, and the characteristics of patient populations. Notably, the Wiener process model separately identifies agency fixed effects that describe differences in the effectiveness of treatment (“treatment effects”), and effects that describe differences in the unobservable characteristics of patients (“population effects”). The estimated model enables hypothetical comparisons of how different agencies would treat the same populations. The policy experiment of transferring the treatment practices of more cost‐effective agencies suggests that Maine could have significantly reduced treatment costs without compromising health outcomes by identifying and transferring best practices.     

DYNAMIC WELFARE COST OF STAGNATION: AN ALTERNATIVE MEASURE TO THE LUCAS–OBSTFELD MODEL

The present paper proposes an alternative measure to the Lucas–Obstfeld model to analyze the welfare costs of stagnation, and provides a practical illustration of both the Lucas–Obstfeld model and the alternative model. Compared with the Lucas–Obstfeld model, the alternative model can evaluate: (i) whether policy was implemented in a timely fashion; (ii) whether the policy cost was expensive compared with the cost of stagnation; and (iii) whether the policy implemented was effective or whether an additional policy is required.     

SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE HIGH‐FREQUENCY VERSIONS OF A STANDARD NEW‐KEYNESIAN MODEL

In a small‐scale New‐Keynesian model with a hybrid Phillips curve and IS equation, the paper is concerned with an arbitrary frequency of the agents’ synchronized decision making. It investigates the validity of a fundamental methodological precept according to which no substantive prediction or explanation of a well‐defined macroeconomic period model should depend on the real time length of the period. While this principle is basically satisfied as the period goes to zero, the impulse – response functions of the high‐frequency versions can qualitatively as well as quantitatively be fairly dissimilar from their quarterly counterpart. The result proves to be robust under variations of the degree of price stickiness. The main conclusion is that DSGE modelling may be more sensitive to its choice of the agents’ decision interval.     

MULTIPLIER EFFECTS OF PUBLIC SERVICES IN A TWO‐SECTOR MODEL OF MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION

In a two‐sector model of monopolistic competition, this paper explores what impacts an expansion of government spending on public services has on national income. In the short run where entry and exit of firms are restricted, a rise in government spending on services like health care (which has only a role of substituting for market services) increases national income, but that on services like elderly care (which has not only this role but also another role of contributing to home production of services) decreases it. These results are reversed in the long run. Welfare effects of public services are also examined.