Lessons from the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake for prediction of long-period strong ground motions and sloshing damage to oil storage tanks

The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M _w 8.0) in northern Japan generated large-amplitude long-period (4–8 s) ground motions in the Yufutsu sedimentary basin, causing severe damage to seven large oil storage tanks with floating roof structures because of severe sloshing of oil. The 30,000–40,000-m³ tanks having suffered the severe damage such as fires and sinking of floating roofs experienced the sloshing with large amplitudes exceeding 3 m in which the fundamental mode was predominant. The second mode of sloshing was also excited in the 110,000-m³ tanks in which their floating roofs sank into oil, indicating that the higher modes of sloshing as well as the fundamental mode should be considered in damage prediction. The strong ground motion recordings demonstrated the earthquake dependency of predominant periods and the substantial spatial variation of the long-period shaking observed within the Yufutsu basin, meaning the necessity of source- and site-specific prediction of long-period strong ground motions. The two-dimensional numerical modeling suggested the importance of detailed structures of soft near-surface sediments as well as deep basin structure for accurate prediction of long-period strong ground motions in deep sedimentary basins.     

Finite-element simulations of long-period ground motions: Japanese subduction-zone earthquakes and the 1906 San Francisco earthquake

Large earthquakes at shallow depths commonly excite long-period ground motions in distant sedimentary basins, thereby inflicting damage upon large-scale structures. For example, the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, Japan, damaged oil tanks in the Yufutsu Basin, located 250 km from the epicenter. Similar long-range effects were also observed during the 2004 earthquake off Kii Peninsula, Japan. In this study, we present the results of simulations of these earthquakes undertaken using the finite element method (FEM) with a voxel mesh. In addition, to examine whether the 1906 San Francisco earthquake excited long-period ground motions in the Los Angeles-area basins, we performed long-period ground motion simulations of most of the California region. The FEM simulations confirmed the importance of path effects for the development of long-period ground motions.     

3D crustal structure and long-period ground motions from a M9.0 megathrust earthquake in the Pacific Northwest region

We have developed a community velocity model for the Pacific Northwest region from northern California to southern Canada and carried out the first 3D simulation of a M_w 9.0 megathrust earthquake rupturing along the Cascadia subduction zone using a parallel supercomputer. A long-period (<0.5 Hz) source model was designed by mapping the inversion results for the December 26, 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Han et al., Science 313(5787):658–662, 2006) onto the Cascadia subduction zone. Representative peak ground velocities for the metropolitan centers of the region include 42 cm/s in the Seattle area and 8–20 cm/s in the Tacoma, Olympia, Vancouver, and Portland areas. Combined with an extended duration of the shaking up to 5 min, these long-period ground motions may inflict significant damage on the built environment, in particular on the highrises in downtown Seattle.     

2018年2月6日花莲M_W6.4地震近场地震动方向性效应

利用中国台湾省内222个强震动台站以及Palert地震预警系统520个台站所观测的三分量加速度记录,研究此次花莲M_W6.4地震近场强地震动空间分布和衰减特征,将观测结果与美国NGA-West2地震动经验预测模型进行对比,揭示此次台湾花莲地震近场地震动的长周期特点,基于回归残差分析研究地震动峰值加速度(PGA)、峰值速度(PGV)和不同周期地震动的空间分布差异,定量考察近场地震动的方向性效应.研究结果表明:(1)整体上此次地震的近场PGV观测值和周期1.0s以上的长周期加速度谱值与美国NGA-West2地震动预测模型结果接近,PGA观测值和周期小于1.0s的加速度反应谱略低于预测模型结果.从空间分布来看,周期1.0s以上的长周期地震动在断层的不同方位有系统性差异,在破裂传播前方(震中西南方位),周期大于1.0s时的反应谱明显高于美国NGA-West2地震动经验预测模型,在破裂传播后方(震中东北方位),周期大于1.0s时的反应谱低于经验预测模型,表明此次地震近场地震动具有显著的方向性效应.(2)破裂传播的方向性效应主要影响周期超过1.0s的长周期,而对PGA以及周期小于1.0s的短周期地震动影响较弱.在破裂传播前方,周期1.0～10.0s的加速度反应谱值被增强到整体观测平均水平的1.16～1.52倍;在破裂传播后方,周期1.0～10.0s的加速度反应谱值被减弱到整体观测平均水平的0.36～0.70倍.(3)此次地震破裂方向性效应的影响表现出明显的窄带效应,破裂方向性的影响(包括破裂传播前方的增强作用和破裂传播后方的减弱作用)在周期T=3.0s时达到最大,在该周期破裂传播前方的增强系数为1.52,破裂传播后方的减弱系数为0.36.从周期T=3.0s到10.0s,破裂方向性效应的影响随周期增大总体上呈减弱趋势,这与2016年日本熊本M_W7.0地震破裂方向性效应的影响特点显著不同.     

近断层竖向地震动峰值特征

为了研究近断层区域竖向地震动的加速度峰值衰减特征和竖向与水平加速度峰值比特征,为进行近断层区域结构抗震设计和地震危险性分析等提供基础数据参考,根据1952—1999年世界范围内震级在M5．4-M7．6之间的18次地震的地震动记录提出一种同时考虑断层距和震级影响的竖向峰值加速度衰减关系,并与其他学者提出的衰减关系进行了对比分析。然后初步统计分析了竖向与水平峰值加速度比值、竖向地震动PGV／PGA比值的特征。研究结果表明,本文提出的加速度峰值衰减关系形式比较简单而且能较好地体现地震动加速度峰值的衰减变化关系;断层距在0—40km范围内相当一部分竖向与水平向峰值加速度比值大于一般抗震设计规范中规定的比值即0．65;至少对于竖向地震动而言,只将PGV／PGA〉0．2s作为识别近断层脉冲型地震动的强度指标是不够的。     

Analysis of the relations between slope failure distribution and seismic ground motion during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with M_w7.9 occurred at Yingxiu County in Longmenshan thrust fault belt, southwest China, having triggered a huge amount of slope failures. This paper applied a detailed inventory with more than 190,000 slope failures and strong ground motion records of 187 seismic stations to analyze the qualitative and quantitative relations between slope failure distribution and seismic parameters. The results revealed that slope failure distribution was exponentially decreased with the increment of epicentral distance and distance from surface fault rupture; peak ground acceleration (PGA) on the hanging wall side was apparently larger than that on footwall side. Linear correlation between concentration of slope failures (LNC) and the percentage of the area affected by slope failure (LAP) and PGA was demonstrated by statistical analysis, which revealed that 0.18~0.21 g horizontal PGA was the threshold value of the occurrence of slope failure. Furthermore, this paper presented an empirical model for the attenuation relation of slope failure distribution.     

日本熊本M_W 7.0地震的长周期地震动

利用日本K-NET和KiK-net强震动台网获取的距离发震断层100 km以内136个强震动台站的三分量加速度记录,研究熊本M_W7.0地震地震动的长周期特性.基于残差分析研究不同周期地震动的空间分布差异,将观测分析结果与美国NGA经验模型、汶川和芦山地震观测结果进行对比,揭示此次熊本地震近场强震动的长周期特点及其形成机理.研究结果表明:(1)虽然总体上此次地震的近场地震动水平与美国NGA-West2经验模型的预测结果接近,但周期2 s以上地震动的分布在断层不同方位有系统性差异,在断层的北东方位,周期2.0～10.0 s的反应谱高于NGA-West2经验模型的预测结果,在西南方位,谱值低于经验预测模型.(2)我们认为此次地震2.0～10.0 s的长周期地震动的空间分布差异主要受破裂方向性的影响,在破裂传播的正前方,周期T=2.0 s,3.0 s,5.0 s,7.5 s和10.0 s的加速度谱被放大到整体观测平均水平的1 4～2.0倍.从周期T=2.0 s到10.0 s,破裂向前方向的放大作用和破裂反方向的减弱作用均有所增强,此次地震观测到的速度大脉冲记录均位于断层的东北方位,这与方向性脉冲的产生机理相吻合,速度大脉冲对加速度反应谱有显著的长周期放大作用,放大倍数值可以超过4.0,放大作用的影响主要位于脉冲的特征周期T_p附近.(3)近断层记录在建筑结构敏感的周期(0.5～2.0 s)的反应谱达到芦山地震的3～6倍,虽然与芦山地震震级接近,此次地震近断层地震动破坏力大大超过了芦山M_W6.8地震,甚至超过了汶川W_W7.9地震,这种长周期特点应该引起工程抗震设计和相关研究人员的重视.     

汶川地震近场加速度基本参数的方向性特征

以2008年5月12日的MS8.0级汶川地震强震记录为基础,根据场地条件和断层距,选取198组三分量近场加速度记录,按照台站相对于破裂传播方向的位置将其划分为破裂前方和破裂后方两类场点.为了考虑破裂传播的方向性和地震辐射图对地震动不同分量的影响,将每组地震动的两个正交水平分量旋转成为垂直断层走向和平行断层走向的分量,然后分别对破裂前、后方向上的垂直断层、平行断层和竖向分量地震动的三个基本工程参数——峰值、反应谱和持时进行定量对比和分析.研究结果表明,汶川地震中地震动的峰值、反应谱和持时均显示出了明显的方向性特征:(1) 在峰值方面,破裂前方场点的峰值明显大于破裂后方的峰值,而且破裂前、后方的峰值差别随着断层距的增大而逐渐减小;(2) 在反应谱方面,在反应谱的各个自振周期段,破裂前方的平均反应谱明显高于破裂后方的平均反应谱,并且当周期大于2 s时,破裂前、后方反应谱谱比最高可以达4倍左右;(3) 在持时方面,破裂后方场点的持时明显大于破裂前方的持时,差别也可达数倍.因此,虽然汶川地震是一次以逆冲为主兼具右旋走滑的地震,但是由于此次地震以单侧破裂为主,破裂传播的方向性使得近场地震动的峰值、反应谱和持时三个基本参数中均体现出了明显的方向性特征.     

利用高频GPS技术进行强震地面运动监测的研究进展

回顾了高频(1 Hz) GPS在地学应用中的研究进展和主要的数据处理方法,全面比较了高频GPS与地震仪的工作原理与性能,认为高频GPS可为后者进行有效的补充;分析了高频GPS应用于监测短周期强震地面运动的技术优势,以及在处理方法和实际的地学应用中存在的不足;通过对高频GPS的应用领域与发展前景的研究,对我国开展高频GPS数据的处理方法与地学应用研究提出了自己的观点和看法.     

基于EMD和VARMA模型的地震动仿真

通过EMD方法将地震动分解成若干固有模态函数,提出了用固有模态函数的时变VARMA建模实现地震动仿真的思路。算例分析表明,该方法充分利用了固有模态函数的特性,解决了直接基于ARMA或VARMA模型建模的仿真方法所面临的模型判阶的难题,并可同时考虑地震动的强度和频率非平稳特性,使仿真地震动与实际地震动在能量时频分布特性上具有较好的一致性且样本统计性较好,弹性及弹塑性反应谱拟合精度较高。     

基于汶川地震远场强震动记录的厚覆盖土层对长周期地震动影响分析

利用2008年5月12日汶川8．0级地震的远场强震动记录,研究太原盆地厚覆盖土层对长周期地震动的影响,并将其结果与地震安全性评价工作中的土层反应分析结果进行比较。结果表明：厚覆盖土层对长周期地震动有很强的放大作用,覆盖层厚度越厚,峰值出现的周期越大,而相对于基岩最大放大可达9倍左右。另外,对于厚覆盖层的场地,观测结果与场地地震安全性评价计算结果在一定的长周期范围内差别相当大,相对于基岩,观测结果的放大系数至少高于场地地震安全性评价计算结果的2倍以上,最大达到近9倍。     

Site dependence of far-source ground motions during the Wenchuan earthquake

This paper aimed to examine the site dependence and evaluate the methods for site analysis of far-source ground motions. This was achieved through the examination of frequency content estimated by different methods based on strong ground motions recorded at twelve far-source stations in Shandong province during the Wenchuan earthquake. The stations were located in sites with soil profiles ranging from code classes Ⅰ to Ⅲ. Approaches used included the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS), the earthquake response spectrum (ERS), the spectral ratio between the horizontal and the vertical components (H/V), the spectral ratio between the spectra at the site and at a reference site (SRRS), and coda wave analysis (CWA). Results showed that major periods of these ground motions obtained by FAS, ERS and H/V ratio methods were all evidently larger than site dominant periods; the periods were also different from each other and mainly reflected the frequency content of long period components. Prominent periods obtained by the SRRS approach neither illuminated the long period aspect nor efficiently determined site features of the motions. The CWA resulted in a period close to site period for stations with good quality recordings. The results obtained in this study will be useful for the evaluation of far-source effect in constructing seismic design spectra and in selecting methods for ground motion site analysis.     

中强地震活动区地震动衰减关系的确定

地震动衰减关系是影响地震安全性评价特别是地震区划结果的重要因素.我国现行的地震动衰减关系主要是依据6级以上地震的地面运动资料得到的,并没有考虑中强地震的衰减特性.为此,文中利用现有的烈度资料和其他可供参考的研究成果来建立我国中强地震活动区的地震动衰减关系.收集了我国华中、华南、东北等地区的51次地震的烈度等震线资料,运用单随机变量加权最小二乘回归法得到中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系.然后以美国西部地区为参考地区,运用缺乏地震动参数的地震动估计方法-地震对映射法得到中强地震活动区峰值加速度和有效峰值加速度衰减关系.最后,通过与我国强地震区和中强地震区已有的烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的对比,验证了得出的我国中强地震活动区烈度衰减关系和地震动衰减关系的合理性.     

Inferred ground motions on Guadeloupe during the 2004 Les Saintes earthquake

Accurate estimates of the ground motions that occurred during damaging earthquakes are a vital part of many aspects of earthquake engineering, such as the study of the size and cause of the uncertainties within earthquake risk assessments. This article compares a number of methods to estimate the ground shaking that occurred on Guadeloupe (French Antilles) during the 21st November 2004 (M _w 6.3) Les Saintes earthquake, with the aim of providing more accurate shaking estimates for the investigation of the sources of uncertainties within loss evaluations, based on damage data from this event. The various techniques make differing use of the available ground-motion recordings of this earthquake and by consequence the estimates obtained by the different approaches are associated with differing uncertainties. Ground motions on the French Antilles are affected by strong local site effects, which have been extensively investigated in previous studies. In this article, use is made of these studies in order to improve the shaking estimates. It is shown that the simple methods neglecting the spatial correlation of earthquake shaking lead to uncertainties similar to those predicted by empirical ground-motion models and that these are uniform across the whole of Guadeloupe. In contrast, methods (such as the ShakeMap approach) that take account of the spatial correlation in motions demonstrate that shaking within roughly 10 km of a recording station (covering a significant portion of the investigated area) can be defined with reasonable accuracy but that motions at more distant points are not well constrained.     

汶川地震远场地震动场地相关性与分析方法评价

为考查远场地震动的场地相关性并评价一些场地特性分析方法的适用性,采用不同方法对汶川地震山东省12个远场台站的强震记录进行了分析.选取台站分别位于按建筑抗震设计规范(CBC)场地划分中的Ⅰ—Ⅲ类场地上.地震动记录的分析方法包括傅里叶幅值谱法,地震反应谱法,水平与竖向谱比率法,参考点谱比率法,以及尾波分析等.结果表明,按傅里叶幅值谱法,地震反应谱法,水平与竖向谱比法计算得到的卓越周期均远大于台站场地的卓越周期,不同方法得到的结果之间也有较大差别,且主要反映长周期地震动的卓越频率;参考点谱比率法的结果未反映地震动的卓越周期,也与场地的卓越周期差别较大;对完整记录尾波分析所得的结果比较接近场地的卓越周期.希望本文能为考虑远场地震作用时设计谱的建立,以及场地特性估计时地震动分析方法的选取提供参考依据.     

Prediction of long-period ground motions from huge subduction earthquakes in Osaka,Japan

There is a high possibility of reoccurrence of the Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes along the Nankai Trough in Japan. It is very important to predict the long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 8.1 and 8.4, respectively, to mitigate their disastrous effects. In this study, long-period (>2.5 s) ground motions were predicted using an earthquake scenario proposed by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion in Japan. The calculations were performed using a fourth-order finite difference method with a variable spacing staggered-grid in the frequency range 0.05–0.4 Hz. The attenuation characteristics (Q) in the finite difference simulations were assumed to be proportional to frequency (f) and S-wave velocity (V _s) represented by Q = f · V _s / 2. Such optimum attenuation characteristic for the sedimentary layers in the Osaka basin was obtained empirically by comparing the observed motions during the actual M5.5 event with the modeling results. We used the velocity structure model of the Osaka basin consisting of three sedimentary layers on bedrock. The characteristics of the predicted long-period ground motions from the next Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes depend significantly on the complex thickness distribution of the sediments inside the basin. The duration of the predicted long-period ground motions in the city of Osaka is more than 4 min, and the largest peak ground velocities (PGVs) exceed 80 cm/s. The predominant period is 5 to 6 s. These preliminary results indicate the possibility of earthquake damage because of future subduction earthquakes in large-scale constructions such as tall buildings, long-span bridges, and oil storage tanks in the Osaka area.     

Basin and crustal velocity structure models for the simulation of strong ground motions in the Kinki area,Japan

We constructed a prototype of the basin and crustal structure model for the Kinki area, southwest of Japan, for the simulation of strong ground motions of hypothetical crustal and subduction earthquakes. We collected results of the deep seismic velocity profiles obtained by the reflection experiments and seismic imaging results, which were conducted in the Kinki area. The obtained profiles give underground velocity structures of the crust, from the surface to the subducting slab. We also gather the basin velocity structure information of the Osaka, Kyoto, Nara, and Ohmi basins. To examine the applicability of the constructed velocity structure model to the ground motion simulation, we simulated waveforms of an intermediate size event occurred near the source area of the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. Simulated ground motions using the basin and crustal velocity structure model are fairly well reproducing the observations at most of stations, and the constructed basin and crustal velocity structure model is applicable for the long-period ground motion simulations.     

漾濞MS6.4地震长周期强地震动的有限差分初步模拟

根据我国川滇地区的地质地貌特征、前人地质资料和2021年漾濞M_S6.4地震的震源参数初步反演结果,建立三维速度结构模型,采用三维有限差分法对漾濞地震的长周期地震动进行研究.对实际地震烈度和模拟烈度进行对比,同时在区域附近布置了36个观测点,给出其中6个观测点的三分量速度时程,并给出所有观测点阻尼比为5%的速度反应谱,结果表明:(1)模拟的速度峰值已超过25 cm/s,与实际漾濞地区附近的烈度为8度吻合;(2)受断层滑动分布影响,速度水平分量在西北方向分布范围更广,衰减速度明显慢于东南方向,并且在极震区,东北—西南方向的地震动衰减也较慢.方向性效应对峰值大小及其分布范围的影响显著;(3)观测点速度反应谱的特征周期分布在1~3 s范围内,可能会因为共振效应对区域附近的大型建筑物产生较为严重的破坏.需要对漾濞地震进行进一步研究,以期对漾濞地震的长周期地震动有更为细致的认识.