Dynamics of the timberline in high mountain areas of the nether-polar Urals under the influence of current climate change

Changes in the altitudinal position of the timberline in high mountain areas of the Nether-Polar Urals and basic factors that influence such changes have been revealed on the basis of comparison of the age structure of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) and arctic birch (Betula tortuosa) tree stands and photographs made in different years. On the mountain slopes studied, an upward shift of the timberline took place in areas covered in winter with thick snow (in the late 18th century), with Siberian larch being the pioneer species. Larch began colonizing areas with a thin snow cover in the 20th century. Birch appeared later and has since strengthened its positions. The increase in winter temperatures and precipitation facilitated the expansion of the forest.     

Larch forests of Middle Siberia: long-term trends in fire return intervals

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + °N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71° + N). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = ?0.95). Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.     

Expansion of Evergreen Conifers to the Larch-Dominated Zone and Climatic Trends

The expansion of so-called evergreen conifers (EGCs), including Siberian stone pine, spruce, and fir, along the transect oriented from the boundary of the larch-dominated zone (LDZ; mixed forests of the Yenisei Ridge) to its center has been studied. The normalized dispersal coefficient calculated as K _i = (n _i – N _i )/(n _i + N _i ), where n _i and N _i are the relative numbers of the ith species in the undergrowth and the upper layer, respectively, serves as an indicator of the expansion. It has been found that the K _i values for EGCs (and birch) are higher than the K _i of larch even in the zone absolutely dominated by larch, where the relative numbers of EGCs in the upper layer is less than 1%. The EGC undergrowth has mainly been formed during the past 20–30 years, which is correlated with the trend of summer temperatures The spread of EGCs in the LDZ depends on the frequency of forest fires. The decrease in the time intervals between fires in the 20th century to 65 years (versus 100 years in the 19th century) may have prevented the expansion of competing species in the LDZ. The results obtained indicate that EGCs and birch penetrate into the zone traditionally dominated by larch, which is related to climatic changes during the past three decades. At the same time, tree stand density is increasing in the forest-tundra ecotone, and larch is spreading further into the tundra zone.__________Translated from Ekologiya, No. 3, 2005, pp. 186–193.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Kharuk, Dvinskaya, Ranson, Im.     

Holocene Dynamics of Vegetation and Ecological Conditions in the Center of the East European Plain

Changes in the vegetation and fire regimes in the central East European Plain during the second half of the Holocene have been reconstructed based on the results of paleobotanical analysis and radiocarbon dating of material from a section of peat deposit in the Mordovia State Nature Reserve. It has been shown that birch–pine forests were widespread in the region between 7000 and 5000 yr BP, with the frequency of fires in that period being high (the fire return interval ranged from 10–20 to 100 years). Beginning from 5000 yr BP and to the early 20th century, broadleaf forests were dominant, with the fire return interval increasing to 300–500 years or longer.     

Structure and formation of conifer stands in the upper timberline ecotone on the North Chuya Ridge,Central Altai

The structure of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour.) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) stands and specific features of their formation have been studies in the forest-tundra ecotone on the North Chuya Ridge (2235–2475 m a.s.l.). Changes in the structure of these stands along the transition from the upper boundary of closed forests to the high-mountain tundra have proved to have an ambiguous pattern. Both tree species form mixed clusters of similar-aged trees in the lower part of the ecotone but grow singly, in scatters, in its upper part. The formation of conifer stands (tree clusters) in the lower part of the ecotone, on the slopes of the Aktru River valley, began during climate warming in the second half of the 19th century. The expansion of confers to its upper part took place markedly later, in the early 20th century (Siberian larch) or even in the 1930s (Siberian stone pine).     

Spatiotemporal characteristics of wildfire frequency and relative area burned in larch-dominated forests of Central Siberia

Wildfire frequency, relative area burned, and fire return intervals (FRI) have been studied in larchdominated forests along the transect from the southern (45° N) to the northern (73° N) distribution limits of larch stands based on analysis of satellite imagery (NOAA/AVHRR, Terra/MODIS; 1996–2015) and collection of tree cross cuts with fire scars. A significant increasing trend in fire extent (R² = 0.50, p < 0.05) has been revealed. Histograms of fire extent and frequency are bimodal in the southern and middle taiga (with peaks in spring–summer and late summer–autumn periods) but become unimodal toward the north (>55° N). The length of FRI increases from 80 years at 62° N to ~200 years at the Arctic Circle and reaches ~300 years near the northern limit of larch stands, showing a significant inverse correlation with the length of fire season (r =–0.69). In turn, the length of fire season, area burned and FRI are closely correlated with latitudinal variation in solar irradiance (r = 0.97, 0.81, and –0.95, respectively).     

Influence of peatland and land cover distribution on fire regimes in insular Southeast Asia

Anthropogenic biomass burning in insular Southeast Asia facilitates conversion and degradation of ecosystems and emits high amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. We analyzed the influence of peat soil and land cover distribution on the occurrence and characteristics of vegetation fires. Two years of satellite-based active fire detections over Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, Borneo and Java were examined together with land cover and peatland maps. Our results showed that fire occurrence nearly tripled (23,000 → 68,000) from a wet La Niña year (2008) to a drier El Niño year (2009). In both years, fires were concentrated in peatlands (in 2009 41% of fires vs. 10% of land area), and the majority of large-scale burning took place in peatlands. Variation in peatland land cover within the study area was noticed to create remarkable different fire regimes. Biomass burning in the intensely managed Sumatran peatlands was characterized by large-scale land clearance fires that took place annually to varying extent. The largely unmanaged degraded peatland ecosystems of Borneo, on the other hand, experienced very little fire activity in a wet year but were ravaged by large-scale wildfires when El Niño conditions arose. We conclude that fire regime characteristics in insular Southeast Asia are strongly connected to occurrence of peat soil and land management status. This leads to high variation of fire activity within this region both annually (depending on weather patters) and over longer time range (depending on land cover/management issues) and greatly complicates estimation of the effects of fires.     

Increasing extremes of heat and drought associated with recent severe wildfires in southern Greece

Mountains of the northern Mediterranean basin face two major threats under global change. Aridity and available fuel are both expected to increase because of climatic and land-use changes, increasing fire danger. There may already be signs of such effects in the case of the Pinus nigra and Abies cephalonica forests on Mt. Taygetos (southern Greece). We reconstructed climate (mid- to late-fire-season drought) using tree-rings for the last 150 years and compared it with the mountain’s fire history reconstructed from P. nigra fire scars. Seven, out of the ten, large fires Mt. Taygetos experienced were associated with below-normal precipitation (P) or above-normal maximum temperature (T _max). The largest fires occurred in late summer of 1879, 1944, 1998, and 2007. However, only the recent fires (1998 and 2007) had both low P and high T _max, also confirmed from long-term meteorological data. The synergy between climate and fuel availability may explain the very high intensity of 1998 and 2007 fires that burned mostly as stand-replacing crown fires. The other two large fire events (1879 and 1944) most likely occurred under reduced availability in burning fuel and were related to above-normal T _max. Our findings are among the first based on long-term and site-specific empirical data to support the prediction that Mediterranean mountainous areas will face a very large threat from wildfires in the twenty-first century, if socioeconomic changes leading to land abandonment and thus burning fuel accumulation are combined with the drought intensification projected for the region under global warming.     

Fluxes of dissolved organic matter in larch forests in the cryolithozone of central Siberia

Fluxes of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in larch biogeocenoses and its export from the drainage basin have been studied in the zone of continuous permafrost. A comparative assessment of DOM input into the soil has been made on slopes of northern and southern exposures (as variants reflecting the current state and warming). The dynamics of DOM export in a creek depending on the increasing depth of the active soil horizon in the drainage area have been revealed. It is concluded that an increase in the depth of the seasonally thawing layer induced by global warming will not have any significant effect on the amount of annual DOM export. Reduction of DOM export may be expected upon a decrease in litter stocks under the effect of their mineralization and forest fires.     

Two thresholds determine climatic control of forest fire size in Europe and northern Africa

Fire weather indices predict fire extent from meteorological conditions assuming a monotonic function; this approach is frequently used to predict future fire patterns under climate change scenarios using linear extrapolation. However, the relationship between weather and fire extent may potentially depend on the existence of fuel moisture content thresholds above which this relationship changes dramatically, challenging this statistical approach. Here, we combine the continuous and the threshold approaches to analyze satellite-detected fires in Europe during 2001–2010 in relation to meteorological conditions, showing that fire size response to decreasing fuel moisture content follows a ramp function, i.e., with two plateaus separated by a phase of monotonic increase. This study confirms that at continental and high-resolution temporal scales, large fires are very unlikely to occur under moist conditions, but it also reveals that fire size stops to be controlled by fuel moisture content above a given threshold of dryness. Thus, fuel moisture content control only applies when fire is not limited by other factors such as fuel load, as large fires were virtually absent during the considered period in dry regions with less than 500 mm of average annual precipitation, i.e., low-productive areas where fuel amount would be scarce and discontinuous. In regions with sufficient fuel, other factors such as fire suppression or fuel discontinuity can impede large fires even under very dry weather conditions. These findings are relevant under current climatic trends in which the fire season length, in terms of number of days with drought code values above the observed thresholds (break points), is increasing in many parts of the Mediterranean, while it is decreasing in eastern Europe and remains unchanged in central Europe.     

Radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia as dependent on climate change over the past 120 years

The results of studies on the radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia are presented. The application of dendroclimatological methods to the study of tree-ring chronologies has made it possible to evaluate tree growth response to the dynamics of climatic factors over the past 120 years. The results of analysis of radial tree increment show that the onset of the growing season has shifted to earlier dates by the end of the 20th century.     

Climate changes and tree stand dynamics at the upper limit of their growth in the North Ural mountains

The composition and structure of tree stands near the timberline have been studied on different slopes and at different elevations in the Tylaisko-Konzhakovsko-Serebryanskii Massif, the North Urals. It has been found that the upper limits of tree stands with different degrees of canopy closure have risen considerably (by about 100 m of elevation) since the mid-19th century, although the formation of these stands started as early as the late 18th century. Woodless areas in the eastern part of the massif started to be colonized by Larix sibirica in the late 18th to early 19th centuries; those in the western part, by Picea obovata in the mid-19th century; and in the southern part, by Betula tortuosa in the late 19th century. Analysis of meteorological data provides evidence for warming and increasing humidity of the climate since the late 19th century. Favorable climatic changes that facilitated the expansion of the forest have taken place both in the summer (prolongation of the growing period) and in winter seasons (increase of air temperature and precipitation). The observed differences in the composition and dynamics of tree stands between the studied areas of the mountain range are most probably explained by different requirements of tree species for the depth of snow cover and the degree of soil freezing.     

Pyrophytic Properties of the Larch Larix gmelinii in Terms of Life Strategies

The pyrophytic properties of the larch Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. growing in the northern taiga of central Siberia have been studied. It has been found that, although the trees are highly combustible and fire resistance of tree stands is low, the species is highly pyrophytic, which allows it to retain its geographic range. At early stages of postfire successions, the larch exhibits characteristics of pyrogenic explerent and is subject to r-selection. When forest restoration is close to completion, the species passes into the patient state and acquires properties subject to K-selection.     

Altitudinal and horizontal shifts of the upper boundaries of open and closed forests in the Polar Urals in the 20th century

In the Polar Urals (the Rai-Iz massif and Mounts Tchernaya and Malaya Tchernaya), altitudinal and horizontal shifts of the upper boundary of open and closed larch forests in the 20th century have been studied. Spatiotemporal parameters of these shifts have been assessed with the aid of the ARC/INFO geographic information system (ESRI Inc., United States), using our original large-scale geobotanical maps showing the distribution of different types of forest-tundra communities in the early 1910s and 2000s. The results show that tree vegetation has been actively expanding to higher elevations over the past 90 years. On average, the upper boundaries of open and closed forests have ascended 26 and 35 m and shifted horizontally 290 and 520 m, respectively. These shifts have been conditioned by climate warming and increasing humidity observed since the 1920s.     

Sensitivity of Portuguese forest fires to climatic, human, and landscape variables: subnational differences between fire drivers in extreme fire years and decadal averages

Within the changing fire regimes of Portugal, the relative importance of humans and climatic variability for regional fire statistics remains poorly understood. This work investigates the statistical relationship between temporal dynamics of fire events in Portugal and a set of socioeconomic, landscape, and climatic variables for the time periods of 1980–1990, 1991–2000, and extreme fires years. For 10 of 15 districts, it was possible to observe moderate shifts in the significance of fire drivers for the first two decadal periods. For others, pronounced changes of the significance of fire drivers were found across time. Results point toward a dynamic (perhaps highly non-linear) behavior of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers, especially during the occurrence of extreme fire years of 2003 and 2005. At country level, population density alone explained 42% of the inter-annual and inter-district deviance in number of fires. At the same temporal and spatial scale, the explanatory power of temperature anomalies proved to explain 43% of area burnt. We highlight the necessity of including a broad set of socioeconomic and landscape fire drivers in order to account for potential significance shifts. In addition, although climate does trigger broad favorable fire conditions across Portugal mainland, socioeconomic and landscape factors proved to determine much of the complex fire patterns at a subnational scale.     

Effect of forest fires on the avifauna of the Northern Amur Region

To reveal the effect of forest fires on the avifauna of the Northern Amur Region, bird assemblages of primary dark conifer-deciduous forests, wild rosemary larch forests, and secondary larch-birch forests have been studied in the Komsomol’skii and Norskii nature reserves. It has been shown that the replacement of primary dark conifer-deciduous forests by secondary forests is accompanied by a significant decrease in bird population density, with some species being lost and the composition of the dominant species group being changed. On the other hand, fires lead to increasing patchiness of the environment, which can sometimes provide for an increase in biological diversity.     

An input-output balance study for PCBs in humans

Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) input-output balance studies were performed on five male volunteers, aged between 24 and 30, for periods of 8-14 days in 1998. Dietary exposure was quantified by the duplicate meals method and varied between 220 and 460 ng of sigmaPCB (sum of 20 congeners) per day for each of the five individuals over the study period. Dietary intake was dominated by congeners 118, 138, 153 and 180. Average faecal outputs for the five volunteers were 50-290 ng of sigmaPCB (sum of 20 congeners) per day for each of the five individuals over the same period and was dominated by the same four congeners. Whilst the total PCB fluxes were therefore into the body (i.e., accumulation), important differences were noted for different individual congeners. PCBs 44, 47, 49, 52, 60, 66, 101, 105, 110, 118, 149, 151 and 183 all showed net absorption for all five volunteers. Some congeners showed a net absorption in some of the individuals but net excretion in others, as seen by other workers. These congeners (PCBs 138, 153, 180, 187 and 194) are all higher chlorinated congeners and lack meta-para-vicinal hydrogen atoms. There were differences in the net absorption/excretion between individuals, which appeared to be a function of body fat index (BFI). The volunteers with the lowest BFIs showed net excretion for the greatest number of congeners, whilst the individual with the highest BFI was a net absorber of all the congeners studied. The problems in determining and interpreting absorption efficiency values for use in quantitative exposure assessments are discussed. Various factors that influence net absorption of PCBs and other persistent organic pollutants are identified. These include compound properties (including susceptibility to metabolism), the individual's fat status and balance, exposure history and diet.     

Modelling the trade-off between fire and grazing in a tropical savanna landscape, northern Australia.

As savannas are widespread across northern Australia and provide northern rangelands, the sustainable use of this landscape is crucial. Both fire and grazing are known to influence the tree-grass character of tropical savannas. Frequent fires open up the tree layer and change the ground layer from perennials to that dominated by annuals. Annual species in turn produce copious quantities of highly flammable fuel that perpetuates frequent, hot fires. Grazing reduces fuel loads because livestock consumes fuel-forage. This trade-off between fire and grazing was modelled using a spatially explicit, process-orientated model (SAVANNA) and field data from fire experiments performed in the Victoria River District of northern Australia. Results of simulating fire (over 40 years) with minimal or no grazing pressure revealed a reduction in the shrub and woody plants, a reduction in grasses, and no influence on the tree structure given mild fires. While mature trees were resistant to fire, immature trees, which are more likely associated with the shrub layer, were removed by fire. The overall tree density may be reduced with continual burning over longer time periods because of increasing susceptibility of old trees to fire and the lack of recruitment. Increases in stocking rates created additional forage demands until the majority of the fuel load was consumed, thus effectively suppressing fire and reverting to the grazing and suppressed fire scenario where trees and shrubs established.     

Productivity of mosses and organic matter accumulation in the litter of sphagnum larch forest in the permafrost zone

Productivity of the moss cover and necromass accumulation in the litter of a sphagnum larch forest have been estimated on the basis of tree age. It has been shown that the total carbon stock in the litter of a 100-year-old stand, including organic matter not destroyed by fire, exceeds the corresponding value for the tree stand itself by more than an order of magnitude. The accumulation of organic matter on the soil surface inhibits the growth of larch. In particular, this factor impairs hydrothermal conditions in the soil and causes a rise of the permafrost table; as a consequence, lower layers of the root system die off.     

Indicatory aspect of the geographic analysis of plant communities with respect to floristic composition on mountain slopes differing in exposure (the Polar Urals)

Latitudinal geographic groups of vascular plant, moss, and lichen species included in tundra communities and lower vegetation layers of larch forest and open forest have been analyzed with respect to their distribution according to different altitudinal levels and slopes differing in exposure. Prevailing plant groups have been identified. The results were compared with corresponding data on the composition of plant communities in the neighboring flatland area (Kharp Research Station).