中国降水的年代际变化及全球变暖、太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋多年代际振荡对其的相对贡献

虽然中国降水以年际变化为主,但可利用奇异谱分析辨析出10—20 a、20—50 a 年代际变化的显著性区域以及>50 a 的长期趋势的显著性区域。本研究通过奇异值分解、多元线性回归等方法探究了1934—2018年不同海洋模态对6—8月（夏季）和12月—翌年2月（冬季）中国陆地降水趋势以及年代际振荡的相对贡献。通过对中国降水及中低纬度地区海温进行奇异值分解发现,不论冬夏,影响中国降水的主要模态是全球变暖,其次是太平洋年代际振荡。利用多元线性回归模型定量评估全球变暖、太平洋年代际振荡、大西洋多年代际振荡对中国不同区域降水的方差贡献及各因子的相对贡献,结果表明:夏季,三者可以解释西北和华北大约30%的年代际降水,其中全球变暖的相对贡献最大、太平洋年代际振荡次之;冬季,三者可以解释东北42%、西北和华北30%左右的年代际降水,东北和西北以全球变暖的相对贡献为主、大西洋多年代际振荡为辅,华北仍以全球变暖的影响为主、太平洋年代际振荡为辅。      

全球变暖、AMO、IPO对全球陆地降水变化的相对贡献

本文探究了不同海表温度(SST)模态对6—8月和12月—次年2月全球陆地降水的趋势以及年代际变化的相对贡献。首先对热带地区陆地降水和SST进行SVD分析,得到影响陆地降水的趋势和年代际变化主要的海洋模态为：海洋中的全球变暖(Global Warming, GW)、大西洋多年代际振荡(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO)和太平洋多年代际振荡(Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, IPO)。其次利用多元线性回归模型进一步定量评估了全球变暖、AMO和IPO对不同地区陆地降水的相对贡献大小。结果表明,全球变暖对陆地降水变化的贡献在冬夏季都是最大的,AMO在6—8月的贡献次之。IPO在12月—次年2月的贡献次之。不同纬度带,三者的贡献不同。GW的贡献在6—8月期间对10°N以北地区较大,南半球受GW的贡献相对较小,GW在12月—次年2月对40°N以北降水贡献异常显著;AMO主要在6—8月对10°～40°S和50°～60°S纬度带上的降水变化的贡献比较大;而IPO主要在12月—次年2月对北半球中纬度降水变化的贡献比较大。GW对...     

北太平洋的年代际振荡与全球变暖

通过回顾和总结前人工作,特别是有关北太平洋年代际振荡的研究,针对近50年来北太平洋中纬度海温变冷的现象进行了分析与讨论。从全球气候变化的角度,总结了影响北太平洋中纬度海温变冷现象的几种可能机制,推测了全球气温变暖可能会对北太平洋的直接或间接影响,归纳指出了研究该问题的复杂性与目前面临的困难。     

亚非夏季风的年代际变化:大西洋多年代际振荡与太平洋年代际振荡的协同作用

亚非夏季风系统包括非洲夏季风、南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风。它是全球季风系统中具有高度整体一致性变化的系统,其主要原因是亚非夏季风系统具有相同的主要驱动力:AMO(Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,大西洋多年代际振荡)和PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,太平洋年代际振荡)海洋年代际变化模态。在此前提下,本文首先阐述了AMO对亚非夏季风的强迫作用与遥相关作用,特别强调了它在亚非夏季风及其降水年代际转型中的作用;其次讨论了PDO与冬春积雪的年代际变化对东亚夏季风雨带的协同作用;最后综合分析了AMO、PDO与IOBM(Indian Ocean Basin Mode,印度洋海盆一致模态)的协同作用,指出印度洋海洋模态在年代尺度上独立于AMO与PDO的相关组合,主要起着加强东亚夏季风活动的作用。     

太平洋年代际振荡对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献

基于1961—2013年中国台站的均一化气温数据、NOAA月平均海温资料和CMIP5气候模式数据,利用气候统计手段,定量分析太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）对中国冬季最低气温年代际变化的贡献。结果表明：PDO的年代际序列与年代际滤波后的最低气温场在全国大部分地区呈显著正相关,即PDO负位相时中国冬季最低气温偏低,反之偏高。2006年后中国冬季最低气温变暖减缓,造成这一现象的主要原因是自然变率起到的降温作用,而自然变率又主要由PDO起主导作用,约占自然变率贡献的40%左右。PDO对温度的贡献呈现出明显的年代际变化,在变暖减缓期对升温有明显的负贡献,且负贡献逐渐增大至超过50%。     

东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态及其与太平洋年代际振荡的关系

利用全球陆地月平均降水资料、英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海表温度距平(SSTA)资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料,探讨东亚夏季风降水年代际变率及其与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的联系。研究指出:东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态以及PDO均在1976年前后呈现显著的年代际转折,并且东亚夏季风降水与PDO在年代际尺度上具有较好的相关关系。PDO能够在对流层低层激发出与年代际东亚夏季风环流较为相似的大气环流异常特征,表明东亚夏季风环流的年代际变化可能受大气外强迫因子PDO在对流层低层的外源强迫作用影响,最终导致东亚夏季风降水发生年代际变化。     

太平洋年代际振荡的年代际预测方法

太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)是北太平洋海表温度年代际变率的主模态。由于太平洋年代际振荡对区域乃至全球气候的显著影响,其合理的预测结果可以带来多方面收益。然而,针对太平洋年代际振荡及其有关的海表温度的年代际预测,目前气候模式的预测水平还十分有限,因此,提出了一个新的增量方法。一系列的验证结果表明,增量方法可以有效预测太平洋年代际振荡,其中包括成功预测出其振荡的年代际转折。增量方法的预测过程主要包括3个步骤:(1)采用5 a滑动平均得到太平洋年代际振荡的年代际变率;(2)利用3 a增量形式的预测因子构建预测模型,预测3 a增量的太平洋年代际振荡(DI_PDO);(3)将预测得到的DI_PDO加上3 a前的观测PDO,得到最后预测的PDO。增量方法亦可以应用到气候系统年代际内部变率的其他模态(如:北大西洋年代际振荡)和其他气候变量的年代际预测(如:海表温度)。     

全球增暖1.5℃和2℃北太平洋年代际尺度振荡的差异

基于CESM模式对1.5℃和2℃两种增暖情景的模拟结果,对比分析了太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）和北太平洋涡旋振荡（NPGO）在全球稳定增暖1.5℃和2℃时期与工业革命前、历史时期在强度和周期上的差异。结果表明：全球稳定增暖1.5℃和2℃时期,PDO和NPGO的强度均比历史时期弱,且主周期缩短,这可能与全球增暖情景下海洋层结增强导致的Rossby波变快有关。PDO的强度和周期在全球增暖1.5℃和2℃这两种情景下没有明显差异;而NPGO的强度在全球稳定增暖2℃时期比1.5℃时有明显减弱,且周期缩短1 a左右。因此,0.5℃升温差异对PDO的强度和周期影响较小,而对NPGO的强度和周期影响较大。     

太平洋年代际振荡研究进展

近10年来，太平洋年代际振荡(PDo)因其对全球气候系统的深远影响而得到广泛的研究。PDo指的是在太平洋的气候变率中具有类似ENSo空间结构但周期为10-30年的一种振荡，当北太平洋中部海面温度异常增暖(冲却)时，热带太平洋中部和东部以及北美沿岸常同时伴随有同等幅度的异常冷却(增暖)。总体而言，有两类观点分别认为PDO起源于确定的海气耦合过程或起源于大气的随机强迫。确定性起源论强调，一个海气耦合系统内部的物理过程可以提供一个正反馈机制以增强一初始扰动，及一个负反馈机制以促使振荡位相发生逆转；海洋环流的动力演变过程决定了振荡的时间尺度。随机性起源论则强调，因为大气活动没有一个特定的时间尺度，其时间尺度谱实际上对应于白噪音谱，所以大气对海洋的强迫是随机的；而海洋常在低频谱段有最大的响应振幅，其对应的周期约为十几年或几十年。作试图系统性地理解PDO在观测、理论和数值方面的研究现状，从而为当前研究提供一个有用的背景性参考。     

北极涛动与北太平洋和北大西洋多年代际振荡的关系研究

利用小波变换和小波互相关分析法对1901—2000年的北极涛动（Arctic Oscillation,AO）、北大西洋多年代际振荡（Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,AMO）和北太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation,PDO）的年代际振荡关系进行研究,并利用1 000 hPa高度场合成分析进行验证。结果表明,三个气候模态均有明显的多年代际尺度的振荡特征,且它们在各特征时间尺度上的振荡相关性存在显著区别,主要表现为:在60 a尺度上,AO超前PDO约4 a正相关,AO滞后AMO约12 a负相关;在20～30 a尺度上,AO超前PDO约12 a正相关;在30 a尺度上,AO超前AMO约8 a正相关。在60 a尺度上,超前PDO负位相4 a和滞后AMO正位相12 a的高度场合成结果为AO负位相;在20～30 a尺度上,超前PDO正位相12 a和超前AMO正位相8 a的高度场合成结果为AO正位相。合成分析结果进一步验证了三个模态的相关性。      

Interdecadal variability of the meridional Ekman heat and mass transport in the North Atlantic and its relation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Average long-term and average annual values of meridional Ekman heat (mass) transport are estimated using the NCEP/NCAR (for 1948-2014) and 20CR (for 1871-2012) atmospheric reanalyses, and their interdecadal variability is analyzed. It was corroborated that the typical period of interdecadal variability of meridional Ekman transport in the North Atlantic coincides with that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and is about 60 years. The strengthening of northeastern trade winds and westerlies accompanied by the development of the negative phase of AMO occurred in the 1880s-1920s and in the 1960s-1990s. The opposite trend is observed for the 1930s-1950s and for the period from the 1990s till the beginning of the 21st century.     

An attempt to deconstruct the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

The link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and low-frequency changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is investigated in three historical and five control simulations with different climate models. An AMOC intensification is followed by a positive AMO phase in each case, but the time lag and the strength of the AMO–AMOC link depend on the model and the type of simulation. In historical simulations, the link is sensitive to the method used to remove the influence of external and anthropogenic forcing from the sea surface temperature (SST) before defining the AMO. Subtracting the regression onto the global mean SST leads to better correlations between the AMO and the AMOC than linear or quadratic detrending, or removing the global mean SST, but a dynamical filter based on linear inverse modeling (LIM) yields even slightly higher correlations. The LIM filter, which decomposes the SST field into non-orthogonal normal modes that may have a physical interpretation, allows investigating whether removing Pacific links from SST improves the AMOC–AMO correlation. In several cases, there is a small improvement when removing the links to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, but the correlation becomes weaker in one historical simulation, so no firm conclusion can be drawn. Additionally removing the modes associated with the Pacific decadal variability strongly degrades the representation of AMOC changes by the AMO in one model, and it tends to reduce the AMOC–AMO correlation in most others, reflecting the strong relation between the Pacific and the Atlantic at decadal scales. The LIM-based filter is finally applied to observed SSTs, confirming that the AMO amplitude is smaller and its recent positive phase weaker than when the global effects are represented by a linear trend. When the global signal is removed, the observed AMO leads the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but does not significantly lag it, as suggested earlier, stressing the need to carefully remove global changes when investigating low-frequency interbasin connections.     

北大西洋涛动指数的比较及其年代际变率

首先对各种北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数的定义进行了比较。发现冬季和夏季NAO的涛动中心有显著的差异,所以分别进行定义,定义时的中心由EOF分析及相关分析确定,新的定义能解释更多的海平面气压方差。在此基础上建立了1873年以来的冬、夏NAO指数序列。近百年来的NAO指数最突出的年代际变化是,夏季在1910～1920年期间的突变性质的增强,以及冬季近20多年来的持续加强。最后还对NAO年代际变化产生的可能原因进行了分析。     

Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic

Analysis of NCEP-NCAR I reanalysis data of 1948–2009 and ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis data of 1958–2001 reveals several significant interdecadal changes in the storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction in the extratropics of Northern Hemisphere. First, the most remarkable transition in the North Pacific storm track (PST) and the North Atlantic storm track (AST) activities during the boreal cold season (from November to March) occurred around early-to-mid 1970s with the characteristics of global intensification that has been noticed in previous studies. Second, the PST activity in midwinter underwent decadal change from a weak regime in the early 1980s to a strong regime in the late 1980s. Third, during recent decade, the PST intensity has been enhanced in early spring whereas the AST intensity has been weakened in midwinter. Finally, interdecadal change has been also noted in the relationship between the PST and AST activities and between the storm track activity and climate indices. The variability of storm track activity is well correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation prior to the early 1980s, but this relationship has disappeared afterward and a significant linkage between the PST and AST activity has also been decoupled. For a better understanding of the mid-1970s’ shift in storm track activity and mean flow-transient eddy interaction, further investigation is made by analyzing local barotropic and baroclinic energetics. The intensification of global storm track activity after the mid-1970s is mainly associated with the enhancement of mean meridional temperature gradient resulting in favorable condition for baroclinic eddy growth. Consistent with the change in storm track activity, the baroclinic energy conversion is significantly increased in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The intensification of the PST and AST activity, in turn, helps to reinforce the changes in the middle-to-upper tropospheric circulation but acts to interfere with the changes in the low-tropospheric temperature field.     

Simulated Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Summer Eurasian Nonuniform Warming since the Mid-1990s

Based on ensemble experiments with three atmospheric general circulation models(AGCMs), this study investigates the role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) in shaping the summer nonuniform warming over the Eurasian continent since the mid-1990 s. The results validate that the positive-phase AMO can indeed cause nonuniform warming,with predominant amplified warming over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but with much weaker warming over Central Asia. The underlying mechanism is then diagnosed from the perspective that the boundary forcing modulates the intrinsic atmospheric variability. The results highlight the role of the Silk Road Pattern(SRP), an intrinsic teleconnection pattern across the subtropical Eurasian continent propagating along the Asian jet. The SRP can not only be identified from the AGCM control experiments with the climatological sea surface temperature(SST), but can also be simulated by the AMO-related SST anomaly(SSTA) forcing. Furthermore, diagnostic linear baroclinic model experiments are conducted, and the results suggest that the SRP can be triggered by the AMO-related tropical diabatic heating. The AMO-triggered SRP-like responses feature anticyclonic circulations over Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, but cyclonic circulation over Central Asia. These responses cause increased warm advection towards Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia, reduced precipitation and cloud cover, and then increased downward shortwave radiation. This increased warm advection and increased downward shortwave radiation together cause amplified warming in Europe–West Asia and Northeast Asia. The situation is opposite for Central Asia.     

Multidecadal variability of summer temperature over Romania and its relation with Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

We investigate the multidecadal variability of summer temperature over Romania as measured at 14 meteorological stations with long-term observational records. The dominant pattern of summer temperature variability has a monopolar structure and shows pronounced multidecadal variations. A correlation analysis reveals that these multidecadal variations are related with multidecadal variations in the frequency of four daily atmospheric circulation patterns from the North Atlantic region. It is found that on multidecadal time scales, negative summer mean temperature (TT) anomalies are associated with positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies centered over the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean and Scandinavia and negative SLP anomalies centered over the northern part of Africa. It is speculated that a possible cause of multidecadal fluctuations in the frequency of these four patterns are the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These results have implications for predicting the evolution of summer temperature over Romania on multidecadal time scales.     

北太平洋增暖对我国西北秋雨的影响

利用1979—2012年我国160站逐月降水资料、NOAA全球海洋表面温度资料和NCEP-DOE大气环流再分析资料,采用统计分析方法研究了北太平洋海表增暖对我国西北秋雨年代际变化的影响。结果表明：西北秋雨在2000年前后经历了年代际跃变,1986—1999年为少雨期,2000—2012年为多雨期。进一步分析表明：西北秋雨的年代际变化与北太平洋海表增暖关系密切,北太平洋海温偏暖时,东亚—北太平洋地区的大气温度升高,引起东亚地区的南北温差减弱,使东亚西风急流减弱,急流中心偏北,东亚中纬度地区气压升高,导致异常东风水汽输送带偏强,造成西北秋雨异常偏多。     

太平洋年代际涛动与云南夏季气温的年代际变化

云南夏季气温具有年代际变化特征,近年来一系列的云南夏季气温异常偏高事件是年代际变化的体现.其中云南夏季气温在准50年年代际变率上与春季太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)指数具有较好的正相关关系,夏季西太平洋副热带高压西伸脊点位置与前两者在年代际上都具有较好的负相关关系.分析认为,可能是由于当春季PDO进入暖(冷)位相阶段时,中东太平洋海温距平持续偏高(低),夏季西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西(东),导致云南夏季不(容)易出现云雨天气,从而进入了气温偏高(低)的年代际时期的关系.春季PDO的变化是夏季云南气温年际变化的重要背景.