Motorcyclists’ speed and “looked-but-failed-to-see” accidents

Previous research on motorcycle crashes has shown the frequency and severity of accidents in which a non-priority road user failed to give way to an approaching motorcyclist without seeing him/her, even though the road user had looked in the approaching motorcycle's direction and the motorcycle was visible. These accidents are usually called “looked-but-failed-to-see” (LBFS) accidents. This article deals with the effects that the motorcyclist's speed has in these accidents. It is based on the in-depth study and precise kinematic reconstruction of 44 accident cases involving a motorcyclist and another road user, all occurring in intersections. The results show that, in urban environments, the initial speeds of motorcyclists involved in “looked-but-failed-to-see” accidents are significantly higher than in other accidents at intersections. In rural environments, the difference in speed between LBFS accidents and other accidents is not significant, but further investigations would be necessary to draw any conclusions. These results suggest that speed management, through road design or by other means, could contribute to preventing “looked-but-failed-to-see” motorcycle accidents, at least in urban environments.     

Exposure and experience are a confounded nuisance in research on driver behaviour

Road accidents are usually the outcome of multicausal interface problems. Statistical controls therefore need to be equally complex, if accident analyses are to produce understanding of causal factors and lead to correction of contributory errors in driver behaviour. Crude control of accident data for distance travelled, time of day, etc. may identify high-risk groups. However, such controls could produce misleading results from research on individual differences in liability to error, because driving is basically self-paced and purposeful. Certain individuals will thus exhibit characteristically raised levels of risk exposure within the driving task, often as a result of pressures extrinsic to the traffic system. If the errors made by these individuals are to be identified, accident data must be corrected for such self-induced risk exposure, instead of this factor merely being used to “explain” accidents. This need seems most acute in experimental studies, where self-imposed demands and purposes of driving change over time and effects of exposure and experience are thus statistically confounded in accident data. However, control for self-induced risk exposure also seems important in studies of professional drivers' accidents and its neglect calls into question one of the basic assumptions of the “induced exposure” method of interpreting accident data.     

Accident investigation reporting deficiencies related to organizational factors in machinery space fires and explosions

Careful accident investigation provides opportunities to review safety arrangements in socio-technical systems. There is consensus that human intervention is involved in the majority of accidents. Ever cautious of the consequences attributed to such a claim vis-à-vis the apportionment of blame, several authors have highlighted the importance of investigating organizational factors in this respect. Specific regulations to limit what were perceived as unsuitable organizational influences in shipping operations were adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Guidance is provided for the investigation of human and organizational factors involved in maritime accidents. This paper presents a review of 41 accident investigation reports related to machinery space fires and explosions. The objective was to find out if organizational factors are identified during maritime accident investigations. An adapted version of the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with minor modifications related to machinery space features was used for this review. The results of the review show that organizational factors were not identified by maritime accident investigators to the extent expected had the IMO guidelines been observed. Instead, contributing factors at the lower end of organizational echelons are over-represented.     

Traffic safety among motorcyclists in Norway: A study of subgroups and risk factors

Although it is widely recognized that motorcyclists have a particularly high accident risk, our knowledge of the mechanisms producing this accident risk is incomplete. The aims of the present paper are to identify subgroups of motorcyclists with a particularly high accident risk and to identify the relevant risk factors at work. The study presented in this paper relies both on a questionnaire (N = 3356) relating rider characteristics, behaviors and accident risk, and analyses of fatal motorcycle accidents (ca. 100) from 2005 to 2008 in Norway. The results reveal that riders of racing replica bikes (sport bikes), and riders younger than 19 years, including especially youths (16–17 years) riding light motorcycles (≤125 cm³), are subgroups of Norwegian motorcyclists with particularly high accident risks. Analysis of fatal motorcycle accidents reveals that about half of the fatal accidents involve sport bikes. Nearly all fatal accidents with sport bikes involved excessive speed. The combination of low age, low experience, risky behavior and “unsafe” attitudes seems to be a particular potent risk factor for Norwegian motorcyclists.     

An analysis of nighttime pedestrian accidents at specially illuminated crosswalks

The purpose of this research was to examine the effect of the special crosswalk illumination and signing system presently warranted for use in Israel. The study was of the before and after type and treated the fixture as an entirety, without attempting to distinguish between differential effects of the sign and of the illumination provided on the crosswalk. Ninety nine installations were studied where no other engineering changes had been made in the “after” period. It was found that a significant reduction in pedestrian night accidents was achieved where the installations were made, while the reduction in day accidents was not statistically significant. In addition to the analysis of night and day accident changes at sites where the system was installed, comparison was made between a number of these sites and a group of unlit “control crosswalks”, each of which either adjoined the lit crosswalk at the same intersection or was nearby on the same street. Accidents at these control crosswalks did not show a significant change over the period studied. Additional factors which were investigated, such as pedestrian and vehicle flow, weather and national trend of pedestrian accidents, all supported the conclusion that it was the installation of the sign and lighting system which brought about the observed reduction in accidents. It was further found that the system represents a highly worthwhile investment in terms of costs and accident reduction benefits.     

The special severity of occupational accidents in the afternoon: "the lunch effect"

The severity of occupational accidents suffered by construction workers at different hours of the day is analyzed in this study. It may be seen that the interval of time between 13:00 and 17:00 has incomprehensibly high rates of severe and fatal accidents in comparison with any other. We associate this higher accident rate with what we have termed the “lunch effect”. We studied 10,239,303 labor accidents in Spain over the period 1990–2002. The relationships between potential risk factors for occupational accidents around lunch in Spain, especially alcohol consumption are studied, using two methods: analysis of national archival data of 2,155,954 occupational accidents suffered by workers in the construction sector over the period 1990–2002 and a survey study. This study also seeks to contribute the opinions of the workers themselves regarding the causes that might explain this situation.     

Induced exposure

Induced exposure “in the narrow sense” refers to exposure to vehicular collision only, and is modelled by a scheme which equates the proportion of single vehicle collisions experienced by a category of driver/vehicles to the proportion of double vehicle collisions in which that driver/vehicle combination was guilty, and which equates the exposure for the category to the proportion not guilty in double vehicle collisions. Induced exposure “in the wide sense” refers to all types of hazard, and separates the data into four categories by a hypothesis that factors relating to an accident are either internal or external for each of the two driver/vehicle combinations involved, where, for single car collisions, one of the “driver/ vehicle” categories is the type of accident, with the restriction that internal factors do not exist in the case where driver/vehicle represents type of single vehicle accident.     

Implementing recommendations from accident investigations: A case study of inter-organisational challenges

In many industries, a national accident investigation board conducts investigations following major accidents. For safety improvements to be achieved, however, it is essential that the recommendations presented in these investigations are followed by necessary actions. In this paper, challenges related to implementation of recommendations from accident investigations are studied. The theoretical framework providing the foundation for the study lies at the intersection between systems safety, risk governance, and implementation research. Empirical data for the case study was collected from the Swedish railway sector. The first part of the paper presents an analysis of the extent of recommendations that have not resulted in implemented actions. The second part consists of an interview study aiming at providing a deeper understanding of the difficulties related to transforming these recommendations into actual changes. Two key factors that give rise to challenges to implementation of recommendations are identified. The first factor is related to the different actors’ views on their own and other stakeholders’ roles in the implementation process, and can be described as a trade-off between being insider and outsider to the industry. The second factor is related to the scope of the accident investigations and their recommendations, and can be described as a trade-off between micro-level and macro-level factors. The opportunities for implementing recommendations, and achieving safety improvements at the industry level, are affected by the ways in which the different stakeholders manage these trade-offs at the local level. This study thus mainly contributes by highlighting the importance of co-ordinating the various actors involved in the implementation process, and the results show that challenges to implementation to a large extent arise in the interactions between these actors.     

The road user behaviour of school students in Belgium

The present study aimed to investigate both the on road behaviour of Belgian school students and the validity of the Adolescent Road User Behaviour Questionnaire (ARBQ) in a sample of students attending school in Belgium. In total, 294 adolescents completed the ARBQ along with measures of their self-reported accident involvement and sensation seeking behaviour. Confirmatory Factor Analysis supported the original factor structure of: “unsafe road crossing”, “playing on the road” and “planned protective behaviour” for the 21-item version of the questionnaire, but not for the full scale. Males were found to engage more often in unsafe crossing behaviour and playing on the roads. There were also age differences, with unsafe road crossing increasing with age and engagement in planned protective behaviours improving with age. Those who reported being involved in an accident also reported more frequent engagement in unsafe crossing, playing on the roads, thrill seeking behaviour and lower levels of behaviour inhibition. Therefore, this study confirms that the ARBQ is a useful tool for investigating safety-related behaviours that contribute to accident involvement.     

French validation of a new version of the Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) for drivers of all ages and level of experiences

The purpose of this study was to validate a new version of the Driver Behavior Questionnaire (DBQ) on a sample of French drivers in order to gain a better understanding of different driver behaviors, by differentiating two types of violations (aggressive and ordinary), three types of errors (dangerous, inattention and inexperience) and by taking positive behaviors into account. 525 drivers (205 men and 320 women), between 18 and 79 years of age, filled in a questionnaire on line including the 41 items in the new version of the DBQ and information relative to their mobility and their accident history. Exploratory factor analysis confirmed a six-factor structure: “dangerous errors”, “inattention errors”, “inexperience errors”, “ordinary violations”, “aggressive violations” and “positive behaviors”. A revised version with 23 items of the new version of the DBQ was produced by selecting the items that loaded most strongly on the six factors. The results also showed the link between demographic variables (age and gender), mobility (kilometers driven weekly), the DBQ scores and the involvement in an accident in the previous five years. This study permitted to validate a more detailed version of the “Driving Behavior Questionnaire” among French drivers of all age and all level of experience.     

Accident investigation: keep asking "why?"

Finding the causes of an accident or operating problem and deciding what actions to take to prevent it happening again is rather like dismantling a set of Russian dolls (Fig. 1). Each time we ask "why?" (or a similar searching question) we find another cause besides the ones we have found already and another action (or set of actions) we can take to prevent similar accidents occurring again. Many investigators stop too soon. This occurred at Flixborough, at Bhopal and in the investigation of many lesser-known accidents. We are more likely to find the deeper causes and the more original actions if groups of people with wide interests and experience are able to take part in the investigations or discuss the investigation reports. We should never look at an accident report as "closing out" a problem. As we read it, we should ask ourselves, "what else could be done?"     

Application of a human error framework to conduct train accident/incident investigations

Accident/incident investigations are an important qualitative approach to understanding and managing transportation safety. To better understand potential safety implications of recently introduced remote control locomotive (RCL) operations in railroad yard switching, researchers investigated six railroad accidents/incidents. To conduct the investigations, researchers first modified the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) to optimize its applicability to the railroad industry (HFACS-RR) and then developed accident/incident data collection and analysis tools based on HFACS-RR. A total of 36 probable contributing factors were identified among the six accidents/incidents investigated. Each accident/incident was associated with multiple contributing factors, and, for each accident/incident, active failures and latent conditions were identified. The application of HFACS-RR and a theoretically driven approach to investigating accidents/incidents involving human error ensured that all levels of the system were considered during data collection and analysis phases of the investigation and that investigations were systematic and thorough. Future work is underway to develop a handheld software tool that incorporates these data collection and analysis tools.     

Statistical study of tram driver accidents

This statistical study considers two basic hypotheses on industrial and traffic accidents the accident proneness theory and the spell theory. The two hypotheses were tested on the basis of a correlation analysis of accident distribution in a group of tram drivers over a five year observation period. Using the chi-square goodness of the test. the analysis showed the negative binomial distribution and the “short” distribution were successfully fitted,while the Poisson distribution significantly differed from the observations. Correlation analysis showed a significant correlation between the number of tram driver accidents over different periods, and that this correlation. although decreasing with an increase of the interval between observation periods, remained significant. The conclusion is that the proneness hypothesis explains more satisfactorily than the spell hypothesis the occurrence of accidents in tram drivers during tlie observation period.     

The psychology of accident investigation: epistemological,preventive, moral and existential meaning-making

This paper extends research on accident investigation as exercises in political sensemaking, by considering the possible psychological meaning-making purposes of accident investigation. Accident investigations and reports serve epistemological or preventive aims: finding out what went wrong and avoiding recurrence. These are not necessarily the same: the variables that explain a particular event might diverge from those that help forestall a larger family of events. In addition, accident investigation serves moral and existential purposes. Accident investigations are (often implicitly) expected to render people's suffering accountable to reason and open to solution, prevention and elimination. The Western world tends to locate both the meaning and cause of suffering in the realm of human moral choice, which typically condenses accounts of failure down to single acts and actors. This competes with increasingly complex epistemological narratives of accidents that have neither obvious causes nor clear, linear cause–effect relationships.     

‘Little wake turbulence,huh?’ Applying a contemporary model of learning and memory to the American Airlines Flight AA587 accident

Loss of control has become a leading cause of aviation accidents and human error is often recorded as the cause in favour of other factors. This has the effect of downgrading the significance of corrective actions to address deeper systemic issues, and serves the bad-apple theory of human error. This paper uses a model of learning and memory to expand on the analysis of negative training from the AA587 accident, which documented the actions of the First Officer as the probable cause and training as contributory. Evidence from the investigation and our contemporary understanding of learning and memory is used to explain how the experiences of the First Officer fit the scenario in which the accident occurred, such that it is plausible to extend probable cause beyond his actions. The paper develops a model of causal inference that enables analysts to continue probing causality as part of a systems approach.     

Augmenting defense-in-depth with the concepts of observability and diagnosability from Control Theory and Discrete Event Systems

Defense-in-depth is a fundamental principle/strategy for achieving system safety. First conceptualized within the nuclear industry, defense-in-depth is the basis for risk-informed decisions by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and is recognized under various names in other industries (e.g., layers of protection in the Chemical industry). Accidents typically result from the absence or breach of defenses or violation of safety constraints. Defense-in-depth is realized by a diversity of safety barriers and a network of redundancies. However, this same redundancy and the intrinsic nature of defense-in-depth - the multiple lines of defense or “protective layers” along a potential accident sequence - may enhance mechanisms concealing the occurrence of incidents, or that the system has transitioned to a hazardous state (accident pathogens) and that an accident is closer to being released. Consequently, the ability to safely operate the system may be hampered and the efficiency of defense-in-depth may be degraded or worse may backfire. Several accidents reports identified hidden failures or degraded observability of accidents pathogens as major contributing factors.In this work, we begin to address this potential theoretical deficiency in defense-in-depth by bringing concepts from Control Theory and Discrete Event Systems to bear on issues of system safety and accident prevention. We introduce the concepts of controllability, observability, and diagnosability, and frame the current understanding of system safety as a “control problem” handled by defense-in-depth and safety barriers (or safety constraints). Observability and diagnosability are information-theoretic concepts, and they provide important complements to the energy model of accident causation from which the defense-in-depth principle derives. We formulate a new safety-diagnosability principle for supporting accident prevention, and propose that defense-in-depth be augmented with this principle, without which defense-in-depth can degenerate into a defense-blind safety strategy. Finally, we provide a detailed discussion and illustrative modeling of the sequence of events that lead to the BP Texas City Refinery accident in 2005 and emphasize how a safety-diagnosable architecture of the refinery could have supported the prevention of this accident or mitigated its consequences. We hope the theoretical concepts here introduced and the safety-diagnosability principle become useful additions to the intellectual toolkit of risk analysts and safety professionals and stimulate further interaction/collaboration between the control and safety communities.     

Too many or too few unintentional firearm deaths in official U.S. mortality data?

We examined the accuracy of data on unintentional firearm fatalities in the United States. We began with data from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) and examined every firearm death reported as an accident by any NVDRS data source – the NVDRS abstracter, the State Vital Statistics Registry (i.e., the ICD-10 Underlying Cause of Death code and manner of death from the death certificate), the medical examiner or coroner report, and the police Supplementary Homicide Report. After carefully reading the information from all sources, we then classified each case as either unintentional or intentional using NVDRS definitions.Comparing our classification with that of the NVDRS abstracter, we conclude that NVDRS data accurately report unintentional firearm deaths (sensitivity 98%; positive predictive value [PPV] 99%). We then compared our classification with that of the State Vital Statistics Registry based on the ICD-10 Underlying Cause of Death code and found great inaccuracy (sensitivity 62%; PPV 58%). Thirty-eight percent of true cases were missed and 42% of reported cases were false positives. As has been previously reported in the literature, over half of unintentional shootings that were inflicted by another person were classified as homicides, not accidents. This is a particular problem for the data on young victims. What was unexpected, however, was the opposite problem: we found many unambiguous suicides and homicides that were reported as accidents. We believe this is due to the ICD-10 coding practice of assigning injury deaths to the “accident” category when manner of death is “pending” or left blank.Finally, at the state-level, we compared our overall results for each state and year with the official National Vital Statistics System count (reported on CDC's WONDER website). We found evidence of even greater over-reporting of unintentional firearm deaths there.In answer to the question, “Are there too many or too few unintentional firearm deaths in official mortality data?” the best answer is, “Both.” Many true accidents are missed, while many suicides and homicides are mistakenly reported as accidents. By contrast, the NVDRS applies a case definition for unintentional firearm deaths with consistency and accuracy.     

Evaluation and optimization of chromium removal from tannery effluent by microemulsion in the Morris extractor

A multidisciplinary Road Accident Analysis Group with the objective of conducting in-depth investigations of specific types of accidents has existed in Denmark for some years. The group has analysed head-on collisions, left-turn accidents, truck accidents and single vehicle accidents. The data collection included police reports, the group's investigation of accident sites and vehicles involved, and interviews with the involved road users and witnesses. The main accident factors in the head-on collisions and in the single vehicle accidents were excessive speed, drunk driving and driving under the influence of illegal drugs. The primary accident factors in left-turn accidents were attention errors or misjudging the amount of time available to complete the left turn. In the truck accidents insufficient searching for visual information as well as speeding were major factors. For all the accident themes the primary injury factor was failure to wear seat- belts. The multidisciplinary approach has provided a rather precise knowledge of the contributing factors leading up to the accident. The method requires a lot of resources, which is a limiting factor for the number of accidents to be analysed in this way. However, the method is suitable for analysis of common occurring or very serious types of accidents.     

A holistic approach for assessing traffic safety in the United Arab Emirates

Traffic accident and fatality rates can be utilized as indicators of traffic safety, but cannot reflect the overall status of traffic safety in a country. This paper uses a holistic perspective approach to investigate traffic safety in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Initially, 12 potential items were selected to investigate the issue of traffic safety in the country. The investigation included data collection and analyses from official police reports, survey among road-users and interview of traffic safety experts. Based on data analysis and interpretation, the main factors affecting traffic safety in the UAE along with their level of deficiency were identified. The study revealed that the main factors contributing to traffic safety in the UAE are driving behaviour, awareness, education and training, infrastructure, vehicle, law enforcement, coordination and quality of resources. Among these factors, a major deficiency was found in the “driving behaviour”, a minor deficiency in “vehicle safety”, and a moderate deficiency in the others. Based on the deficiency level of the factors recommendations were proposed to improve the status of traffic safety in the country.     

Mobile phone use while driving: A hybrid modeling approach

The analysis of the effects that mobile phone use produces while driving is a topic of great interest for the scientific community. There is consensus that using a mobile phone while driving increases the risk of exposure to traffic accidents. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the drivers’ behavior when they decide whether or not to use a mobile phone while driving. For that, a hybrid modeling approach that integrates a choice model with the latent variable “risk perception” was used. It was found that workers and individuals with the highest education level are more prone to use a mobile phone while driving than others. Also, “risk perception” is higher among individuals who have been previously fined and people who have been in an accident or almost been in an accident. It was also found that the tendency to use mobile phones while driving increases when the traffic speed reduces, but it decreases when the fine increases. Even though the urgency of the phone call is the most important explanatory variable in the choice model, the cost of the fine is an important attribute in order to control mobile phone use while driving.