Use of exposure time and life expectancy in models for toxicity to aquatic organisms

The exposure time is a variable which is usually not incorporated into models for toxicity. However, with persistent organic pollutants (POPs) exhibiting a nonspecific mode of action and lipophilic properties this variable can be modeled by the usage of the internal concentrations as a measure of the toxicity with fish. The bioconcentration process with fish is a relatively well understood and predictable process which allows the calculation of the internal lethal concentration. When the exposure time is relatively short the critical internal lethal concentrations are relatively constant for the group of POPs whereaas the LC50 measured in the ambient water is quite variable. When the exposure time is relatively long, results on the measurement of the critical internal concentration with fish over different exposure times has demonstrated that the internal lethal concentration falls with increasing exposure times in a consistent and predictable manner. This reduction in life expectancy can be described in a model which can be used to estimate the critical internal concentration for any exposure time. It also provides information useful in assessing the risk to fish and potentially other species due to the occurrence of residues of POPs in natural aquatic systems. It is suggested that these relationships can be extended to other groups of organisms and chemicals.     

Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world.     

Measuring and monitoring persistent organic pollutants in the context of risk assessment

Due to growing concerns regarding persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment, extensive studies and monitoring programs have been carried out in the last two decades to determine their concentrations in water, sediment, and more recently, in biota. An extensive review and analysis of the existing literature shows that whilst the vast majority of these efforts either attempt to compare (a) spatial changes (to identify "hot spots"), or (b) temporal changes to detect deterioration/improvement occurring in the environment, most studies could not provide sufficient statistical power to estimate concentrations of POPs in the environment and detect spatial and temporal changes. Despite various national POPs standards having been established, there has been a surprising paucity of emphasis in establishing accurate threshold concentrations that indicate potential significant threats to ecosystems and public health. Although most monitoring programs attempt to check compliance through reference to certain "environmental quality objectives", it should be pointed out that many of these established standards are typically associated with a large degree of uncertainty and rely on a large number of assumptions, some of which may be arbitrary. Non-compliance should trigger concern, so that the problem can be tracked down and rectified, but non-compliance must not be interpreted in a simplistic and mechanical way. Contaminants occurring in the physical environment may not necessarily be biologically available, and even when they are bioavailable, they may not necessarily elicit adverse biological effects at the individual or population levels. As such, we here argue that routine monitoring and reporting of abiotic and biotic POPs concentrations could be of limited use, unless such data can be related directly to the assessment of public health and ecological risks. Risk can be inferred from the ratio of predicted environmental concentration (PEC) and the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). Currently, the paucity of data does not allow accurate estimation of PNEC, and future endeavors should therefore, be devoted to determine the threshold concentrations of POPs that can cause undesirable biological effects on sensitive receivers and important biological components in the receiving environment (e.g. keystone species, populations with high energy flow values, etc.), to enable derivation of PNECs based on solid scientific evidence and reduce uncertainty. Using the threshold body burden of POPs required to elicit damages of lysosomal integrity in the green mussel (Perna virvidis) as an example, we illustrate how measurement of POPs in body tissue could be used in predicting environmental risk in a meaningful way.     

Toxicity testing,risk assessment,and options for dredged material management

Programs for evaluating proposed discharges of dredged material into waters of the United States specify a tiered testing and evaluation protocol that includes performance of acute and chronic bioassays to assess toxicity of the dredged sediments. Although these evaluations reflect the toxicological risks associated with disposal activities to some degree, analysis activities are limited to the sediments of each dredging project separately. Cumulative risks to water column and benthic organisms at and near the designated disposal site are therefore difficult to assess. An alternate approach is to focus attention on the disposal site, with the goal of understanding more directly the risks of multiple disposal events to receiving ecosystems. Here we review current US toxicity testing and evaluation protocols, and describe an application of ecological risk assessment that allows consideration of the temporal and spatial components of risk to receiving aquatic ecosystems. When expanded to include other disposal options, this approach can provide the basis for holistic management of dredged material disposal.     

Integrating toxicology and ecology: putting the "eco" into ecotoxicology

Environmental toxicology has been and continues to be an important discipline (e.g., single-species testing for screening purposes). However, ecological toxicology (ecotoxicology--more realism in tests, test species and exposures) is required for predicting real world effects and for site-specific assessments. Ecotoxicology and ecology have shown similar developmental patterns over time; closer cooperation between ecologists and toxicologists would benefit both disciplines. Ecology can be incorporated into toxicology either extrinsically (separately, e.g., providing information on pre-selected test species) or intrinsically (e.g., as part of test species selection)--the latter is preferable. General guidelines for acute and chronic testing and criteria for species selection differ for ecotoxicology and environmental toxicology, and are outlined. An overall framework is proposed based on ecological risk assessment (ERA), for combining ecology and toxicology (environmental and ecological) for decision-making. Increased emphasis on ecotoxicology represents a shift from reductionist to holistic approaches.     

Do 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f] quinoxaline data support the conclusion of threshold carcinogenic effects?

The objectives of this paper are to (1) reexamine the data that were used to support the conclusion of a threshold effect for 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f] quinoxaline (MeIQx)-induced initiation and carcinogenicity at low doses in the rat liver, and (2) discuss issues and uncertainties about assessing cancer risk at low doses. Our analysis is part of an effort to understand proper interpretation and modeling of data related to cancer mechanisms and is not an effort to develop a risk assessment for this compound. The data reanalysis presented herein shows that the low-dose initiation activity of MeIQx, which can be found in cooked meat, cannot be dismissed. It is argued that the threshold effect for carcinogenic agents cannot be determined by statistical non-significance alone; more relevant biological information is required. A biologically motivated procedure is proposed for data analyses. The concept and procedure that are appropriate for analyzing MeIQx data are equally applicable to other compounds with comparable data. The ideas and approaches in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the positions or policies of the USEPA.     

Ecotoxicological evaluation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using marine invertebrate embryo–larval bioassays

The toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) was determined using mussel, sea-urchin and ascidian embryo–larval bioassays. Fluorescent light exposure enhanced phenanthrene, fluoranthene, pyrene and hydroxypyrene toxicity in comparison with dark conditions, but not naphthalene and fluorene toxicity. The toxicity of PAHs was inversely related to their K_OW values following QSAR models derived for baseline toxicity of general narcotics, whereas the obtained regression using toxicity data from photoactivated PAHs significantly departed from the general narcosis model. Also, the mixture toxicity of five PAHs to the larval growth of the sea-urchin was compared with predictions derived from the concentration addition concept, indicating less than additive effects. Finally, we compared our toxicity data with worst-case environmental concentrations in order to provide a preliminary estimate of the risk to the marine environment. Naphthalene, fluorene and pyrene are not considered to pose a risk to sea-urchin, mussel or ascidian larvae, whilst phenanthrene and fluoranthene may pose a risk for mussel and sea-urchin. Moreover, a higher risk for those species is expected when we consider the photoactivation of the PAHs.     

Variability in invasion risk for ballast water exchange on the Scotian Shelf of eastern Canada

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions.     

Presentation of RISK-UE Project

This paper is a presentation of an European project called RISK-UE, entitled: “An advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with applications to different European towns”. It gives the origin, the objectives and the organisation of the project, together with the content of the different workpackages comprising methodological aspects: different features of European town, seismic hazard, urban system exposure, vulnerability of current, historical and monumental buildings, vulnerability of lifelines and essential facilities, seismic risk scenario, with an application to the seven following cities: Barcelona, Bitola, Bucharest, Catania, Nice, Sofia and Thessaloniki. These studies were realized in close relation with the decisionmakers of these cities, in order that they implement Risk Management Plans and Plans of Action to effectively reduce seismic risk.     

地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例

为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节,减轻地震灾害风险,以贵州省罗甸县为示范,采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析,开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查,通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式,首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系,评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度,计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数,确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区,并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点,从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。     

模块化城镇地震灾害风险评估系统设计、开发与实现

本文为满足不同用户对于地震灾害风险评估功能的需求,在对地震灾害风险评估成果进行分析整理的基础上,研究设计、开发并实现了由一系列通用功能模块组成的模块化地震灾害风险评估系统。在设计阶段确定了各模块的功能、所需数据及其相互关系,分割出一系列高内聚低耦合的功能模块;在此基础上确定系统使用MEF插件式开发框架,以功能模块为单位进行软件开发,形成多个具有特定功能、互相独立的工具包;使用WPF技术对该系统平台进行开发,通过整合各功能模块,最终形成多模块灵活组合调用、满足不同用户需求的城镇地震灾害风险动态评估系统。     

地震巨灾风险评估系统的研制与应用

地震巨灾风险评估系统(EQRiskAsia 2010 for Windows)是专门用于未来10年尺度亚洲地震巨灾风险评估计算的系统,该系统具有很强的分析处理功能,可用于地震巨灾风险综合评估、地震灾害损失快速评估和地震巨灾案例信息查询等。本文介绍了该系统的设计思路和主要功能。