The impact of the parking situation in shopping centres on store choice behaviour

The article discusses the effects of changing the parking situation in the surrounding of shopping centres on consumers store choice behaviour. To get insight into these effects a hierarchical logit model of parking lot and store choice behaviour is estimated and validated. The research is based on before-and-after data of supermarket visitors collected in a major regional shopping centre in a suburban area in The Netherlands. The model is estimated using the before data. At the level of the supermarkets the estimated hierarchical logit model performs very well. The model is less accurate at the level of parking lots but still performs satisfactory. Significant attributes are a constant representing the characteristics of the supermarket, the distance between supermarket and parking lot, the number of parking spaces per parking lot, the location of the parking lot vis-à-vis the origin of the consumer, and the availability of supermarket trolley facilities at the parking lot. Validating the model by reproducing the after data yields less satisfactory results. Especially the model does not perform very well on predicting parking lot choice. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Complexity theory, spatial simulation models, and land use dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.     

Near surface lithology and spatial variation of arsenic in the shallow groundwater: southeastern Bangladesh

This study investigated the relationship between near-surface lithology and the spatial variability of As concentrations using sediment grain-size analysis and electromagnetic induction survey in the southeast Bangladesh. It has been observed that the aquifers overlain by finer sediments have higher concentrations of As in groundwater, whereas As concentrations are remarkably low in aquifers having permeable sandy materials or thinner silt/clay layer at the surface. The near-surface lithology acts as a controlling factor for spatial distributions of groundwater As within the very shallow depths (<15 m). Shallow alluvial aquifers can provide low-As drinking water in many areas of the country when tube wells are properly installed after investigation of the overlying near-surface sediment attributes and hydraulic properties.     

Pengelly's legacy reconsidered: a GIS approach to spatial analysis of palaeontological and archaeological collections from Kents Cavern, England

Tens of thousands of palaeontological and archaeological remains were collected by William Pengelly during 19th century excavations of Kents Cavern, but are now widely dispersed between museums. This has previously precluded spatial analysis. We have now assembled available museum records into a single database, and, using our previously-reconstructed Pengelly excavation map as a base, we have been able to exploit the unique Pengelly location code to set up a GIS mapping system. This allows, for the first time, the analysis of spatial patterns. In addition, the GIS serves to highlight potential problems of recording or curation in the original data. Here we report on the construction of the GIS system and its first use in the analysis of spatial distribution of bear remains. The maps demonstrate that Ursus deningeri entered the cave through a now-sealed High Level Chamber entrance at the back of the cave in the middle Pleistocene, whereas Ursus arctos accessed the cave in the late Pleistocene through the now-sealed Northeast Gallery entrance. The denning areas are reconstructed as Labyrinth/Bear's Den for U. deningeri and Vestibule/Great Chamber for U. arctos. Considerable post-mortem re-distribution of the remains of both species is indicated.     

High temperature structural and thermoelastic behaviour of mantle orthopyroxene: an in situ neutron powder diffraction study

The temperature induced structural evolution and thermoelastic behaviour of a natural (Pbca) orthopyroxene (Opx), with chemical formula ^M2(Mg_0.856Ca_0.025Fe²⁺ _0.119) ^M1(Mg_0.957Fe²⁺ _0.011Fe³⁺ _0.016Cr_0.011Al_0.005)Al_0.032Si_1.968O₆, from a suite of high pressure ultramafic nodules of mantle origin, have been investigated by in-situ neutron powder diffraction at several temperatures starting from 1,200°C down to 150°C. Unit-cell parameter variations as a function of T show no phase transition within this temperature range. The volume thermal expansion coefficient, α = V ⁻¹(∂V/∂T) _P0, varies linearly with T. The axial thermal expansion coefficients, α_j = l _j⁻¹(∂l _j/∂T)_P0, increase non-linearly with T. The principal Lagrangian unit-strain coefficients (ɛ//a, ɛ//b, ɛ//c), increase continuously with T. However, the orientation of the unit-strain ellipsoid appears to change with T. With decreasing T, the values of the unit-strain coefficients along the b and c axes tend to converge. The orientation at ΔT = 1,080°C is maintained down to the lowest temperature (150°C). The two non-equivalent tetrahedral chains, TA _n OA_3n and TB _n OB_3n , are kinked differently. At room-T, the TB _n OB_3n chain is more strongly kinked by about 23° than the TA _n OA_3n chain. With increasing T, the difference decreases by 3° for the TB _n OB_3n chain. The intersite cation exchange reaction between M1 and M2 (Mg²⁺ and Fe²⁺) shows a slight residual order at 1,200°C followed by reordering with decreasing temperature although seemingly not with a definite progressive trend. At the lowest temperature reached (150°C), reordering has occurred with the same value of partitioning coefficient K _D as that before heating. The absence of the expected phase transition is most likely due to the presence of minor amounts of Fe³⁺, Al, Ca and Cr which must play a crucial role on the thermoelastic behaviour and phase stability fields in natural Opx, with consequent important petrologic and geological implications.     

Some things old, some things new: The spatial representations and politics of change of the peak oil relocalisation movement

Despite continued uncertainty about the physical realities and political, economic and social implications of peak oil, combined concerns about oil scarcity, climate change and globalisation has spawned an energetic relocalisation movement dedicated to achieving a comprehensive reduction in oil dependency through community-scale initiatives. This paper uses a discourse approach to examine the emergence, geographical spread and practices of the Transition Network, a UK-originated relocalisation movement now involving 186 local initiatives in the UK and other countries. We trace the movement’s drawing upon, and innovation from, discourses and techniques used by other grassroots environmental movements to promote a spatial representation of peak oil as an inevitable and geographically undiscriminating problem, and its use of addiction metaphors and participatory techniques to promote personal and community-scale energy descent initiatives as a viable and necessary alternative to globalisation. We also analyse the spatial representations and techniques used in the Network’s “rhizomic” spread across multiple localities around the world and embedding in communities where relocalisation initiatives are established. We conclude by examining the future challenges these spatial constructions of peak oil pose for the relocalisation movement.     

Simulation of mineral grades with hard and soft conditioning data: application to a porphyry copper deposit

This work deals with the geostatistical simulation of mineral grades whose distribution exhibits spatial trends within the ore deposit. It is suggested that these trends can be reproduced by using a stationary random field model and by conditioning the realizations to data that incorporate the available information on the local grade distribution. These can be hard data (e.g., assays on samples) or soft data (e.g., rock-type information) that account for expert geological knowledge and supply the lack of hard data in scarcely sampled areas. Two algorithms are proposed, depending on the kind of soft data under consideration: interval constraints or local moment constraints. An application to a porphyry copper deposit is presented, in which it is shown that the incorporation of soft conditioning data associated with the prevailing rock type improves the modeling of the uncertainty in the actual copper grades.     

Delineation and interpretation of spatial coseismic response of groundwater levels in shallow and deep parts of an alluvial plain to different earthquakes: A case study of the Kumamoto City area,southwest Japan

Coseismic changes in groundwater levels have been investigated throughout the world, but most studies have focused on the effects of one large earthquake. The aim of this study was to elucidate the spatial patterns of level changes in response to several earthquakes, and the relationship of the patterns to shallow and deep groundwater in the same area. We selected the Kumamoto City area in southwest Japan, a region with one of the richest groundwater resources in Japan, as our study site. Data from hourly measurements of groundwater levels in 54 wells were used to characterize the coseismic responses to four earthquakes that occurred in 2000, 2001, 2005, and 2008. Although the distance to the hypocenter (12–2573 km), and seismic energy (M_w = 5.0–8.0) of these earthquakes varied, systematic groundwater level changes were observed in the range of 0.01–0.67 m. Spatial patters of the level changes were clarified by interpolating the point data by a spline method. The zones where coseismic rises were observed were generally wider for deep groundwater than for shallow groundwater, probably as a result of an increase in compressive stress. General trends in the changes in groundwater levels, and calculated pressure changes, were clarified to be consistent in the deep groundwater, but the coseismic increases or decreases in compressive stress in the shallow groundwater were variable, depending on the distance to the earthquake epicenter. We developed a conceptual model of the mechanism underlying this phenomenon by assuming permeability enhancement induced by elastic strain and pore-pressure change over the depth range. In addition, the importance of local geology was identified, because levels in the area of Togawa lava (a porous andesite) tended to change more in magnitude, and more quickly, with a shorter recovery time, than levels measured in the area outside the lava.     

古新世-始新世极热事件与地球系统的自我调节:Gaia理论的应用

古新世—始新世极热事件(LPTM或PETM)是地球历史中最强烈的全球升温事件之一,又因其温室气体的排放与当前工业废气排放水平相当,因而在全球变化与地球系统科学研究中具有重要的研究意义。Gaia理论强调生物通过负反馈作用调节全球系统,使之趋于稳定。在前人研究资料的基础上,对比分析了分布于全球不同地区大洋钻孔与陆地剖面P/E界线附近的δ13C变化,综合了P/E极热事件对全球碳循环的影响以及事件的成因。认为P/E极热事件之后,地球系统在生物作用下逐渐恢复平衡。如果将生物与地球作为整体来看,那么这个整体是一个具有自我平衡能力的系统。地球历史中,其他与碳循环扰动有关的地质事件,应该也可以用Gaia理论的思路,从生物调节环境的角度分析碳循环的变化以及地球系统的平衡机制。     

Assessing spatial and attribute errors in large national datasets for population distribution models: a case study of Philadelphia county schools

Geospatial technologies and digital data have developed and disseminated rapidly in conjunction with increasing computing efficiency and Internet availability. The ability to store and transmit large datasets has encouraged the development of national infrastructure datasets in geospatial formats. National datasets are used by numerous agencies for analysis and modeling purposes because these datasets are standardized and considered to be of acceptable accuracy for national scale applications. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory a population model has been developed that incorporates national schools data as one of the model inputs. This paper evaluates spatial and attribute inaccuracies present within two national school datasets, Tele Atlas North America and National Center of Education Statistics (NCES). Schools are an important component of the population model, because they are spatially dense clusters of vulnerable populations. It is therefore essential to validate the quality of school input data. Schools were also chosen since a validated schools dataset was produced in geospatial format for Philadelphia County; thereby enabling a comparison between a local dataset and the national datasets. Analyses found the national datasets are not standardized and incomplete, containing 76 to 90 percent of existing schools. The temporal accuracy of updating annual enrollment values resulted in 89 percent inaccuracy for 2003. Spatial rectification was required for 87 percent of NCES points, of which 58 percent of the errors were attributed to the geocoding process. Lastly, it was found that by combining the two national datasets, the resultant dataset provided a more useful and accurate solution.     

Correlation of unsaturated soil and dielectric property for monitoring of subsurface characteristics: development of unsaturated dielectric mixing models and its application

The behavior due to rainfall infiltrating the ground plays a role in landslides, groundwater recharge and various other ground responses. Most of these geotechnical behaviors have a correlation between soil pore space and soil volumetric water content in the unsaturated and saturated soil porous media. Therefore, the soil porosity associated with soil pores and the distribution of volumetric water content are significantly important hydrological characteristics. In the case of shallow slope failure such as landslide, the infiltration activity due to the connectivity of soil pore spaces in a porous media is induced. Slope failure may be attributed to the effect of a wetting front with the slope due to liquid infiltration, which changes the volumetric water content, soil matric suction and shear strength of the slope. This study was performed with an unsaturated injection test using a frequency domain reflectometry (FDR) dielectric device which measures the dielectric constant of unsaturated soil and the study then proposed the unsaturated dielectric mixing models to calculate soil porosity and effective porosity of unsaturated soils. From the experimental results the ratio of effective porosity to porosity of soils are measured in a range of 70–85%. These experimental results show a decrease of about 5–10% for unsaturated soil compared to the ratio of effective porosity to porosity of saturated soil. The infiltration passages of tracer material are restricted within the pore connectivity in the unsaturated soil which is caused by dead-pores in the soil. Using the FDR device and the unsaturated dielectric mixing models, we can consider the acquisition of physical properties to detect the infiltration activity, the response of the dielectric constant along with the injected tracer and hydrological parameters for the unsaturated soil porous media.