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1.
The article discusses the effects of changing the parking situation in the surrounding of shopping centres on consumers store choice behaviour. To get insight into these effects a hierarchical logit model of parking lot and store choice behaviour is estimated and validated. The research is based on before-and-after data of supermarket visitors collected in a major regional shopping centre in a suburban area in The Netherlands. The model is estimated using the before data. At the level of the supermarkets the estimated hierarchical logit model performs very well. The model is less accurate at the level of parking lots but still performs satisfactory. Significant attributes are a constant representing the characteristics of the supermarket, the distance between supermarket and parking lot, the number of parking spaces per parking lot, the location of the parking lot vis-à-vis the origin of the consumer, and the availability of supermarket trolley facilities at the parking lot. Validating the model by reproducing the after data yields less satisfactory results. Especially the model does not perform very well on predicting parking lot choice. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

2.
Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.  相似文献   

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4.
Air pollution has seriously endangered human health and the natural ecosystem during the last decades. Air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) have played a critical role in providing valuable data sets for recording regional air pollutants. The spatial representativeness of AQMS is a critical parameter when choosing the location of stations and assessing effects on the population to long-term exposure to air pollution. In this paper, we proposed a methodological framework for assessing the spatial representativeness of the regional air quality monitoring network and applied it to ground-based PM2.5 observation in the mainland of China. Weighted multidimensional Euclidean distance between each pixel and the stations was used to determine the representativeness of the existing monitoring network. In addition, the K-means clustering method was adopted to improve the spatial representativeness of the existing AQMS. The results showed that there were obvious differences among the representative area of 1820 stations in the mainland of China. The monitoring stations could well represent the PM2.5 spatial distribution of the entire region, and the effectively represented area (i.e. the area where the Euclidean distance between the pixels and the stations was lower than the average value) accounted for 67.32% of the total area and covered 93.12% of the population. Forty additional stations were identified in the Northwest, North China, and Northeast regions, which could improve the spatial representativeness by 14.31%.  相似文献   

5.
Clifford M. Guy 《GeoJournal》1998,45(4):255-264
This paper reviews current methods used in classifying retail outlets and areas devoted to retailing, in the geographical and town planning literature. For retail outlets, classifications based upon types of goods sold, and types of shopping trip, are discussed. This is followed by an analysis of modern large store development which reflects property developers' and retailers' concerns. Areas devoted to retail uses are subdivided into unplanned ‘retail areas’ and planned ‘shopping centres’. Traditional classifications based upon central place theory are reviewed for both of these types, and found wanting in the light of recent changes in retail development practice and consumer behaviour. Classifications based upon physical development characteristics and type of shopping trip are recommended. Finally, classifications of urban retail location are examined. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

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This study investigated the relationship between near-surface lithology and the spatial variability of As concentrations using sediment grain-size analysis and electromagnetic induction survey in the southeast Bangladesh. It has been observed that the aquifers overlain by finer sediments have higher concentrations of As in groundwater, whereas As concentrations are remarkably low in aquifers having permeable sandy materials or thinner silt/clay layer at the surface. The near-surface lithology acts as a controlling factor for spatial distributions of groundwater As within the very shallow depths (<15 m). Shallow alluvial aquifers can provide low-As drinking water in many areas of the country when tube wells are properly installed after investigation of the overlying near-surface sediment attributes and hydraulic properties.  相似文献   

8.
In some studies on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), landslide boundary and spatial shape characteristics have been expressed in the form of points or circles in the landslide inventory instead of the accurate polygon form. Different expressions of landslide boundaries and spatial shapes may lead to substantial differences in the distribution of predicted landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs); moreover, the presence of irregular landslide boundaries and spatial shapes introduces uncertainties into the LSM. To address this issue by accurately drawing polygonal boundaries based on LSM, the uncertainty patterns of LSM modelling under two different landslide boundaries and spatial shapes, such as landslide points and circles, are compared. Within the research area of Ruijin City in China, a total of 370 landslides with accurate boundary information are obtained, and 10 environmental factors, such as slope and lithology, are selected. Then, correlation analyses between the landslide boundary shapes and selected environmental factors are performed via the frequency ratio (FR) method. Next, a support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) based on landslide points, circles and accurate landslide polygons are constructed as point-, circle- and polygon-based SVM and RF models, respectively, to address LSM. Finally, the prediction capabilities of the above models are compared by computing their statistical accuracy using receiver operating characteristic analysis, and the uncertainties of the predicted LSIs under the above models are discussed. The results show that using polygonal surfaces with a higher reliability and accuracy to express the landslide boundary and spatial shape can provide a markedly improved LSM accuracy, compared to those based on the points and circles. Moreover, a higher degree of uncertainty of LSM modelling is present in the expression of points because there are too few grid units acting as model input variables. Additionally, the expression of the landslide boundary as circles introduces errors in measurement and is not as accurate as the polygonal boundary in most LSM modelling cases. In addition, the results under different conditions show that the polygon-based models have a higher LSM accuracy, with lower mean values and larger standard deviations compared with the point- and circle-based models. Finally, the overall LSM accuracy of the RF is superior to that of the SVM, and similar patterns of landslide boundary and spatial shape affecting the LSM modelling are reflected in the SVM and RF models.  相似文献   

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Tens of thousands of palaeontological and archaeological remains were collected by William Pengelly during 19th century excavations of Kents Cavern, but are now widely dispersed between museums. This has previously precluded spatial analysis. We have now assembled available museum records into a single database, and, using our previously-reconstructed Pengelly excavation map as a base, we have been able to exploit the unique Pengelly location code to set up a GIS mapping system. This allows, for the first time, the analysis of spatial patterns. In addition, the GIS serves to highlight potential problems of recording or curation in the original data. Here we report on the construction of the GIS system and its first use in the analysis of spatial distribution of bear remains. The maps demonstrate that Ursus deningeri entered the cave through a now-sealed High Level Chamber entrance at the back of the cave in the middle Pleistocene, whereas Ursus arctos accessed the cave in the late Pleistocene through the now-sealed Northeast Gallery entrance. The denning areas are reconstructed as Labyrinth/Bear's Den for U. deningeri and Vestibule/Great Chamber for U. arctos. Considerable post-mortem re-distribution of the remains of both species is indicated.  相似文献   

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12.
The temperature induced structural evolution and thermoelastic behaviour of a natural (Pbca) orthopyroxene (Opx), with chemical formula M2(Mg0.856Ca0.025Fe2+ 0.119) M1(Mg0.957Fe2+ 0.011Fe3+ 0.016Cr0.011Al0.005)Al0.032Si1.968O6, from a suite of high pressure ultramafic nodules of mantle origin, have been investigated by in-situ neutron powder diffraction at several temperatures starting from 1,200°C down to 150°C. Unit-cell parameter variations as a function of T show no phase transition within this temperature range. The volume thermal expansion coefficient, α = V −1(∂V/∂T) P0, varies linearly with T. The axial thermal expansion coefficients, αj = l j−1(∂l j/∂T)P0, increase non-linearly with T. The principal Lagrangian unit-strain coefficients (ɛ//a, ɛ//b, ɛ//c), increase continuously with T. However, the orientation of the unit-strain ellipsoid appears to change with T. With decreasing T, the values of the unit-strain coefficients along the b and c axes tend to converge. The orientation at ΔT = 1,080°C is maintained down to the lowest temperature (150°C). The two non-equivalent tetrahedral chains, TA n OA3n and TB n OB3n , are kinked differently. At room-T, the TB n OB3n chain is more strongly kinked by about 23° than the TA n OA3n chain. With increasing T, the difference decreases by 3° for the TB n OB3n chain. The intersite cation exchange reaction between M1 and M2 (Mg2+ and Fe2+) shows a slight residual order at 1,200°C followed by reordering with decreasing temperature although seemingly not with a definite progressive trend. At the lowest temperature reached (150°C), reordering has occurred with the same value of partitioning coefficient K D as that before heating. The absence of the expected phase transition is most likely due to the presence of minor amounts of Fe3+, Al, Ca and Cr which must play a crucial role on the thermoelastic behaviour and phase stability fields in natural Opx, with consequent important petrologic and geological implications.  相似文献   

13.
This paper describes a thermo-hydro-mechanical framework suitable for modelling the behaviour of unsaturated soils. In particular, this paper focuses on bentonite clay subjected to a thermo-hydro-mechanical load, as in the case of nuclear waste engineering barriers. The paper gives a theoretical derivation of the full set of coupled balance equations governing the material behaviour as well as an extended physical interpretation. Finally, a finite element discretisation of the equations and number of simulations verifying their implementation into a custom finite element code is provided. Some aspects of the formulation are also validated against experimental data.  相似文献   

14.
This paper evaluates the performance of a generalized effective stress soil model for predicting the rate independent behaviour of freshly deposited sands, while a companion paper describes model capabilities for clays and silts. Most material parameters can be obtained from standard laboratory data, including hydrostatic or one‐dimensional compression, drained and undrained triaxial shear testing. A compilation of data on compression behaviour allows for estimation of compression parameters when this type of data is not available. Extensive comparisons of model predictions with measured data from undrained triaxial shear tests shows that the model gives excellent predictions of the transition from dilative to contractive shear response as the confining pressure and/or the initial formation void ratio increases. A parametric study of drained response shows that the model describes realistically the variation of peak friction angle and dilation rate as a function of confining pressure and density when compared with an empirical correlation valid for many sands. The proposed formulation predicts a unique critical state locus for both drained and undrained triaxial testing which is non‐linear over the entire range of stresses and is in excellent agreement with recent experimental data. Overall, the model provides excellent predictions of the stress–strain–strength relationships over a wide range of confining pressures and formation densities. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Despite continued uncertainty about the physical realities and political, economic and social implications of peak oil, combined concerns about oil scarcity, climate change and globalisation has spawned an energetic relocalisation movement dedicated to achieving a comprehensive reduction in oil dependency through community-scale initiatives. This paper uses a discourse approach to examine the emergence, geographical spread and practices of the Transition Network, a UK-originated relocalisation movement now involving 186 local initiatives in the UK and other countries. We trace the movement’s drawing upon, and innovation from, discourses and techniques used by other grassroots environmental movements to promote a spatial representation of peak oil as an inevitable and geographically undiscriminating problem, and its use of addiction metaphors and participatory techniques to promote personal and community-scale energy descent initiatives as a viable and necessary alternative to globalisation. We also analyse the spatial representations and techniques used in the Network’s “rhizomic” spread across multiple localities around the world and embedding in communities where relocalisation initiatives are established. We conclude by examining the future challenges these spatial constructions of peak oil pose for the relocalisation movement.  相似文献   

16.
This work deals with the geostatistical simulation of mineral grades whose distribution exhibits spatial trends within the ore deposit. It is suggested that these trends can be reproduced by using a stationary random field model and by conditioning the realizations to data that incorporate the available information on the local grade distribution. These can be hard data (e.g., assays on samples) or soft data (e.g., rock-type information) that account for expert geological knowledge and supply the lack of hard data in scarcely sampled areas. Two algorithms are proposed, depending on the kind of soft data under consideration: interval constraints or local moment constraints. An application to a porphyry copper deposit is presented, in which it is shown that the incorporation of soft conditioning data associated with the prevailing rock type improves the modeling of the uncertainty in the actual copper grades.  相似文献   

17.
本文系统总结了东北地区中生代火山岩的年代学、岩石组合及其时空分布规律,以便对环太平洋构造体系和蒙古——鄂霍茨克构造体系中生代的演化历史及其东北地区中生代区域成矿背景给出制约。基于火山岩中锆石U——Pb定年结果,东北地区中生代火山作用可划分成六期:晚三叠世(200~228Ma)、早——中侏罗世(173~190Ma)、中——晚侏罗世(158~166Ma)、早白垩世早期(138~145Ma)、早白垩世晚期(106~133Ma)和晚白垩世(88~97Ma)。晚三叠世火山作用主要分布在吉黑东部和小兴安岭——张广才岭地区,前者为A型流纹岩,后者为双峰式火山岩组合,它们共同揭示了古亚洲洋最终闭合后的伸展环境;早——中侏罗世火山岩主要分布在吉黑东部、小兴安岭——张广才岭和额尔古纳地区,吉黑东部和额尔古纳地区早——中侏罗世钙碱性火山岩的存在分别标志着古太平洋板块和蒙古——鄂霍茨克洋板块俯冲作用的发生,而小兴安岭——张广才岭早——中侏罗世火山岩则以双峰式火成岩组合为特征,反映了双向俯冲的弧后伸展环境;中——晚侏罗世和早白垩世早期火山岩主要分布在松辽盆地以西和冀北——辽西地区,前者为碱性——亚碱性的过渡系列,主要由玄武粗安岩、粗安岩和少量粗面岩组成,后者为A型流纹岩或碱性流纹岩组成,这些火山岩形成于加厚陆壳的坍塌或拆沉阶段;早白垩世晚期火山岩广泛分布于东北地区,吉黑东部为钙碱性火山岩组合,而松辽盆地和大兴安岭地区则主要为双峰式火山岩组合,前者标志着古太平洋板块的俯冲,后者与早期加厚陆壳的拆沉和/或类似弧后的伸展环境有关;晚白垩世火山岩主要分布在吉黑东部和陆内,前者为钙碱性火山岩组合,后者为碱性玄武岩,反映了来自东部环太平洋构造体系的俯冲作用。综合上述中生代火山岩的岩石组合及时空分布特征,可以判定:1)环太平洋构造体系对东亚大陆下的俯冲始于早侏罗世,中生代期间存在早侏罗世、早白垩世晚期和晚白垩世三次俯冲事件,其影响的空间范围主要在松辽盆地及其以东地区,陆缘和古俯冲带是寻找斑岩型矿床的有利场所,而陆内的伸展区域主要与浅成低温热液矿床有关;2)蒙古——鄂霍茨克构造体系经历了中生代早期的俯冲事件和中侏罗世及早白垩世早期两次陆内推覆事件,其影响的空间范围主要在松辽盆地以西地区和华北地块北缘,中生代早期的俯冲事件主要与活动陆缘背景下的斑岩型矿床关系密切,而晚侏罗世和早白垩世两次与加厚陆壳拆沉有关的伸展背景有利于多金属矿床的形成。  相似文献   

18.
The Eastern Venezuela Basin serves as a world-class petroliferous basin, with the sedimentary environment controlled by interactions between the Caribbean and South American plates. This complex tectonic movement could have an important impact on the unsynchronized sedimentary evolution process and heterogeneous marine transgression of different regions within the basin. Thus, it is important to clarify the impact of interactions between the fluviatic- and marine-deposits on the development of the sedimentary environment, the transition of different delta types, and sand-body distribution within this complicated tectonic movement. Based on interpretation of 3D seismic data, electrical well-logging facies and analysis of the sedimentary characteristics of the core, we were able to identify the different sedimentary association types and understand the evolutionary process of the sedimentary system within the study area. We found that the differential sedimentary process in the eastern and western Carabobo block in the Eastern Venezuela Basin was caused by differential uplift and the corresponding spatial discrepancy transgression process in the Middle and Early Miocene foreland basins in this region. The flat geomorphology in the eastern Carabobo block contributed to the obvious sea level transgression process from North to South, but the uplift in the center of the western Carabobo block continuously blocked the sea level transgression. The different transgression processes led to the different sedimentary evolution processes in the eastern and western Carabobo blocks. In the eastern Carabobo block, braided river deltas (23.3–20.43 Ma) gradually changed into meandering river deltas (20.43–15.97 Ma) and finally into tide-influenced estuaries (15.97 Ma). However, in the western subsiding Carabobo block, impacted by the uplift in the center of this area, braided river deltas (23.3–15.97 Ma) in front of the uplift (adjacent to the sea) quickly changed into tide-influenced estuaries (15.97 Ma) with the generation of meandering distributary channels. However, the relatively weak transgression impacting the area behind the uplift resulted in braided channels being retained. Along with the evolution of the sedimentary environment, the tide-related deltaic distributary channel began to change from a braided channel to a meandering one. After rebuilding the paleo-hydrodynamic field, ancient geomorphology, and combining the hydrodynamic equations, we were able to quantitatively explain why sausage-shaped mouth bars occurred in the West and isolated mouth bars occurred in the East. Differential sedimentary environment evolution in eastern and western Carabobo is related to the spatial discrepancy of transgression, which resulted in the rate of change in hydrodynamic intensity, the direction of water flow confluence, and paleo-geomorphology.  相似文献   

19.
This paper presents the second part of a work that aims at developing a mechanical model for the behaviour of propellant‐like materials under high confining pressure and strain rate. The model is to be employed to determine the temperature rise due to mechanical dissipation during a dynamic penetration event. Using the kinematical and thermodynamic background derived in the first part, a viscoelastic–viscoplastic–compaction model is put forward and identified. Viscoelasticity and compaction refer to the elastomeric nature of the material, while viscoplasticity, including implicit damage through dilatancy, reflects its granular nature. Some numerical exercises are performed, in view of determining the major model forces and weaknesses, and of assessing the numerical algorithm robustness. A penetration event is preliminarily simulated, and a temperature rise field predicted. Necessary model improvements are finally discussed, together with several ways of research for a longer term approach. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
During a regional hydrogeologic survey in the St. Lawrence Lowlands, Canada, a computer-based 3D Geologic Framework Model (GFM) was constructed to obtain a consistent representation of this typical Quaternary glaciated basin over a 1,400 km2 area. Such a detailed stratigraphic reconstruction was needed because the Quaternary sediments control the recharge to the underlying regional fractured rock aquifer and also because buried granular aquifers are partly connected to the regional system. The objectives of this geomodeling effort are 1) to improve understanding of subsurface conditions above the regional aquifer and; 2) to provide a common stratigraphic framework for hydrogeologic applications. The method draws on knowledge-driven discrete modeling using gOcad, as well as standardization and quality control procedures to maximize the use of a multisource database. The resulting model represents the bedrock topography and the complex stratigraphic architecture of overlying sediments. The regional till aquitard, the marine clay aquiclude and the buried granular aquifers have been modeled with unprecedented details thus providing a well-constrained 3D hydrostratigraphic framework. The recharge zones of the rock aquifer represent about 35% of the study area. Buried granular aquifers are directly connected to the regional aquifer system over about 10% of the area. The model allows several applications such as assessing aquifer vulnerability and areal groundwater recharge rates; improving the GFM inter-operability with groundwater modeling systems would be the next logical step.
Resumen Se construyó un Modelo del Marco Geológico (GFM) 3D basado en computadora durante un levantamiento hidrogeológico regional en las Tierras Bajas de St. Lawrence, Canada para obtener una representación consistente de esta cuenca glaciar Cuaternaria típica en un área de 1,400 km2. Se necesitó tal grado de reconstrucción estratigráfica debido a que los sedimentos Cuaternarios controlan la recarga del acuífero rocoso fracturado regional subyacente y también porque los acuíferos granulares enterrados están parcialmente conectados con el sistema regional. Los objetivos de este esfuerzo de modelizado geológico son: 1) mejorar el entendimiento de las condiciones subsuperficiales por encima del acuífero regional y; 2) aportar un marco estratigráfico común para aplicaciones hidrogeológicas. El método se basa en el conocimiento de modelizado discreto utilizando gOcad, así como también en estandarización y procedimientos de control de calidad para maximizar el uso de bancos de datos de fuentes múltiples. El modelo obtenido representa la topografía del macizo rocoso y la arquitectura de la compleja estratigrafía de los sedimentos sobreyacentes. El acuitardo regional de tillita, el acuicludo arcilloso marino y los acuíferos granulares enterrados se han modelizado con detalles sin precedentes aportando de este modo un marco hidroestratigráfico 3D bien definido. Las zonas de recarga del acuífero rocoso representan casi el 35% del área de estudio. Los acuíferos granulares enterrados están conectados directamente al sistema acuífero regional sobre aproximadamente el 10% del área. El modelo permite varias aplicaciones tal como evaluar la vulnerabilidad de acuíferos y ritmos de recarga areales de agua subterránea; el paso lógico siguiente sería mejorar la inter-operabilidad del GFM con los sistemas de modelizado de agua subterránea.

Résumé Dans le cadre dune étude dhydrogéologie régionale dans les basses terres du Saint-Laurent (Canada), un Modèle surfacique géologique en 3D (MSG) a été développé pour obtenir une représentation cohérente par ordinateur de ce bassin quaternaire sur une superficie de plus de 1,400 km2. Une telle reconstitution stratigraphique était nécessaire en raison du contrôle quexercent les sédiments quaternaires sur la recharge de laquifère régional fracturé sous-jacent et aussi parce que les aquifères granulaires enfouis sont partiellement connectés au système régional. Les objectifs de cet effort de géomodélisation sont: 1) daméliorer la compréhension des conditions de sous-surface au-dessus de laquifère régional et; 2) de fournir un cadre stratigraphique commun à des fins de caractérisation hydrogéologique. La méthode repose sur lintégration de linterprétation géologique dans la modélisation discrète effectuée à laide du logiciel gOcad, ainsi que sur des procédures duniformisation et de contrôle de la qualité des données afin doptimiser lutilisation dune base de données multisources. Le MSG représente la topographie du roc et larchitecture stratigraphique des sédiments sus-jacents. Laquitard régional (till), laquiclude dargile marine et les aquifères granulaires ont été modélisés à un niveau de détail sans précédent, fournissant ainsi un cadre hydrostratigraphique solidement établi. Les zones de recharge de laquifère rocheux représentent environ 35% de la zone détude. Les aquifères granulaires enfouis sont connectés directement au système aquifère régional sur au moins 10% du territoire. Le MSG permet de multiples usages tels lévaluation de la vulnérabilité des aquifères et lestimation de la distribution de la recharge; la prochaine étape logique serait lamélioration de linteropérabilité avec les systèmes de modélisation numérique de lécoulement.
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