Same‐Sex Marriage and Negative Externalities*

Objectives. Conventional theory regarding externalities and personal choices implies that in the absence of negative externalities, there is no economic rationale for government to regulate or ban those choices. We evaluate whether legally recognizing (or prohibiting) same‐sex marriage has any adverse impact on societal outcomes specifically related to “traditional family values.” Methods. Using data from 1990 to 2004 in the U.S. states, with statistical controls appropriate for the particular model, and with fixed effects, we test the claim of the Family Research Council that same‐sex marriage will have negative impacts on marriage, divorce, abortion rates, the proportion of children born to single women, and the percent of children in female‐headed households. Results. We find no statistically significant adverse effect from allowing gay marriage. Bans on gay marriage, when they are not overturned, appear to be associated with a lower abortion rate and a lower percentage of children in female‐headed households. However, allowing gay marriage also shows the same or stronger associations. Conclusions. The argument that same‐sex marriage poses a negative externality on society cannot be rationally held. Although many might believe that this conclusion is so obvious that it does not warrant testing, many politicians use this argument as a fact‐based rationale to legitimize bans on same‐sex marriage.     

Religion and Public Opinion about Same‐Sex Marriage*

Objective. The goal of this article is to analyze the relationship between religion, measured in terms of religious affiliation and religiosity, and public opinion about same‐sex marriage, civil unions, and a federal constitutional amendment that would prohibit gay marriage. Methods. We use logistic regression with calculated standardized coefficients to analyze data from a nationally representative survey of 1,610 respondents conducted in March–April 2004. Results. Religious variables perform better than demographic measures in models of attitudes about same‐sex unions. Non‐Protestants are much more likely to support same‐sex unions than are Protestants, and individuals with conservative attitudes toward morality and secularism and (to a lesser extent) those who participate actively in religious life are more likely to oppose such unions. On the whole, religious variables play a weaker role in predicting support for a constitutional amendment to prevent gay marriage than they do in predicting attitudes toward same‐sex unions. Conclusions. Religious variables play powerful roles in structuring attitudes about same‐sex unions. Moreover, homosexuality appears to be a major component of the “moral values” discourse that is currently so popular in American politics.     

Race,Religion, and Opposition to Same‐Sex Marriage*

Objective. We examine racial differences in support for same‐sex marriage, and test whether the emerging black‐white gap is a function of religiosity. We explore how religious factors play a crucial role in racial differences, and how secular factors have varying effects on attitudes for whites and African Americans. Methods. Using data from the General Social Surveys, we estimate ordinal logistic regression models and stacked structural equation models. Results. We show that the racial divide is a function of African Americans' ties to sectarian Protestant religious denominations and high rates of church attendance. We also show racial differences in the influence of education and political values on opposition to same sex marriage. Conclusions. Religious factors are a source of racial differences in support for same‐sex marriage, and secular influences play less of a role in structuring African Americans' beliefs about same‐sex marriage.     

Public Attitudes Toward the Census: Influences and Trends*

Objective. This article considers the determinants of attitudes toward the census. Methods. Data from a survey of Connecticut residents are analyzed. Some of the questions replicate items from previous national surveys. Results. Conservatives and people with low trust in government have more negative views of the census, while interest in politics has no effect. Exposure to advertising has a positive effect on some attitudes. Conclusions. Despite the Census Bureau's efforts to maintain political neutrality, support of the census is influenced by general outlook on government and politics, suggesting that conflicts over the census are likely to continue.     

Competing Social Movements and Local Political Culture: Voting on Ballot Propositions to Ban Same‐Sex Marriage in the U.S. States*

Objective. This article uses social movement theory to explain variation in local support for proposed constitutional amendments to ban same‐sex marriage in 22 states during 2004 and 2006. Methods. The analysis uses OLS regression with county‐level data to explain variation in local support for the amendments. Results. Support for the amendments in both years was positively related to the proportion of a county that was evangelical or Republican, but negatively related to its level of education and proportion of Catholics. Amendment support was positively related in only one year to the percentage of a county's population that was professional, young, black, in female‐headed households, and Mormon. Amendment support was negatively related to the concentration of gay organizations in 2006, but positively related to the presence of mega‐churches in 2006. Conclusions. Community characteristics have a substantial effect on levels of support for same‐sex marriage bans, thus reinforcing the utility of cultural explanations of policy decisions.     

Sex and the Statehouse: The Effects of Gender on Legislative Roll‐Call Voting*

Objective. This analysis examines whether differences exist between women and men state legislators in their roll‐call voting behavior involving matters of economic and regulatory policy. Methods. Using interest group rating scores, I examine the voting behavior of representatives in the lower houses of 28 states in legislative sessions from 1995 to 2000. By controlling for a host of variables related to legislators (political party, years of service, etc.) and their districts (average income, level of education, urbanization, etc.), I am able to isolate the independent effect of gender on roll‐call voting. Results. The findings demonstrate that among Democratic legislators women are less conservative than men, but among Republican lawmakers women are slightly more conservative than men. Additional analyses show that many factors that influence legislative voting by women and men are similar; however, political party has a more prominent effect among women. Conclusion. Although factors such as political party and some constituency characteristics exert a much stronger influence than gender, women and men legislators differ in their roll‐call voting even when controls for a wide assortment of individual‐ and district‐level conditions are taken into account.     

The Association of Suicide Rates with Individual‐Level Suicide Attitudes: A Cross‐National Analysis*

Objective. Research on the predictors of individual‐level attitudes toward suicide has neglected the possible role of contextual‐level predictors. The present study addresses this gap in the literature by assessing the association between suicide rates and the attitudes of individuals. Based on social learning theory, it is argued that persons socialized in nations with relatively high rates of suicide are more likely to be exposed to suicidal role models, which provide positive definitions of suicide. Methods. Data refer to 40,873 adults in 31 nations, and are taken from the World Health Organization and World Values Surveys. Given the bi‐level nature of the data, hierarchical linear modeling techniques (HLM) are utilized. Additional predictor variables are incorporated from previous research and include religious participation and political orientation from social learning theory, marital status and life satisfaction from control theory, and basic demographics such as age and gender. Results. The results of the HLM indicate that controlling for individual‐level predictors, as well as other Level 2 variables, persons residing in nations with relatively high suicide rates are more approving of suicide than their counterparts. The model was replicated for the prediction of support for euthanasia. A social learning perspective was further supported by results linking 1970 suicide rates with suicide acceptability among older adults in 1990. Conclusion. National suicide rates are predictive of individual‐level suicide acceptability. However, the main predictors of suicide acceptability included a measure from social learning theory, religiosity, and a neglected measure of control theory, life satisfaction.     

Causes of Civil War in Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Comparison*

Objectives. This article explores the extent to which economic development, ethnic and religious fractionalization, domestic governance, and international trade openness affect civil war in postcolonial Asia and Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) from 1950 through 1992. Methods. We estimate a set of multivariate logit models with the generalized estimating equation (GEE) method for time‐series cross‐sectional (TSCS) data. Results. Both in Asia and in SSA, civil war is less likely with increased economic development and trade openness, while mixed autocratic‐democratic regimes raise the likelihood that states will experience civil war. Although neither ethnic nor religious fractionalization has any statistically significant effect on civil war in SSA, civil war in Asia is more likely with greater ethnic fractionalization. Conclusions. Despite cross‐regional variation in causes of civil war, economic development and trade openness seem to play a consistent role in reducing civil war.     

Presidential Election Cycles and the Turn‐of‐the‐Month Effect*

Objective. In this research, the presidential election cycle hypothesis is evaluated within the context of the turn‐of‐the‐month effect found in stock returns. Methods. Returns from the daily Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index, and the NASDAQ Composite index are grouped into turn‐of‐the month returns and non‐turn‐of‐the‐month returns. Statistical comparisons are conducted to evaluate the returns based on administration subperiod, temporal subperiod, and party affiliation. Results. The results provide evidence of higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms. The higher turn‐of‐the‐month returns account for most of the additional returns found in the second half of presidential terms evidenced in prior research. Conclusions. The persistent higher investment returns for stocks found in the second half of presidential terms can be linked to fiscal and administrative policies that increase household liquidity prior to elections. Incumbents attempt to influence voter choice and energize core constituencies by increasing household liquidity prior to elections through fiscal and administrative policies. These actions create higher turn‐of the‐month returns in the second half of presidential terms, which generate additional overall investment returns for the period.