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1.
Abstract: Wildflower harvesting is an economically important activity of which the ecological effects are poorly understood. We assessed how harvesting of flowers affects shrub persistence and abundance at multiple spatial extents. To this end, we built a process‐based model to examine the mean persistence and abundance of wild shrubs whose flowers are subject to harvest (serotinous Proteaceae in the South African Cape Floristic Region). First, we conducted a general sensitivity analysis of how harvesting affects persistence and abundance at nested spatial extents. For most spatial extents and combinations of demographic parameters, persistence and abundance of flowering shrubs decreased abruptly once harvesting rate exceeded a certain threshold. At larger extents, metapopulations supported higher harvesting rates before their persistence and abundance decreased, but persistence and abundance also decreased more abruptly due to harvesting than at smaller extents. This threshold rate of harvest varied with species’ dispersal ability, maximum reproductive rate, adult mortality, probability of extirpation or local extinction, strength of Allee effects, and carrying capacity. Moreover, spatial extent interacted with Allee effects and probability of extirpation because both these demographic properties affected the response of local populations to harvesting more strongly than they affected the response of metapopulations. Subsequently, we simulated the effects of harvesting on three Cape Floristic Region Proteaceae species and found that these species reacted differently to harvesting, but their persistence and abundance decreased at low rates of harvest. Our estimates of harvesting rates at maximum sustainable yield differed from those of previous investigations, perhaps because researchers used different estimates of demographic parameters, models of population dynamics, and spatial extent than we did. Good demographic knowledge and careful identification of the spatial extent of interest increases confidence in assessments and monitoring of the effects of harvesting. Our general sensitivity analysis improved understanding of harvesting effects on metapopulation dynamics and allowed qualitative assessment of the probability of extirpation of poorly studied species.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract: Hundreds of epiphytic bromeliads species are harvested from the wild for trade and for cultural uses, but little is known about the effects of this harvest. We assessed the potential demographic effects of harvesting from the wild on 2 epiphytic bromeliads: Tillandsia macdougallii, an atmospheric bromeliad (adsorbs water and nutrients directly from the atmosphere), and T. violaceae, a tank bromeliad (accumulates water and organic material between its leaves). We also examined an alternative to harvesting bromeliads from trees—the collection of fallen bromeliads from the forest floor. We censused populations of T. macdougallii each year from 2005 to 2010 and of T. violaceae from 2005 to 2008, in Oaxaca, Mexico. We also measured monthly fall rates of bromeliads over 1 year and monitored the survival of fallen bromeliads on the forest floor. The tank bromeliad had significantly higher rates of survival, reproduction, and stochastic population growth rates (λs) than the atmospheric bromeliad, but λs for both species were <1, which suggests that the populations will decline even without harvest. Elasticity patterns differed between species, but in both, survival of large individuals had high elasticity values. No fallen bromeliads survived more than 1.5 years on the forest floor and the rate of bromeliad fall was comparable to current harvest rates. Low rates of population growth recorded for the species we studied and other epiphytic bromeliads and high elasticity values for the vital rates that were most affected by harvest suggest that commercial harvesting in the wild of these species is not sustainable. We propose the collection of fallen bromeliads as an ecologically and, potentially, economically viable alternative.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract: Effective conservation metrics are needed to evaluate the success of management in a rapidly changing world. Reproductive rates and densities of breeding birds (as a surrogate for reproductive rate) have been used to indicate the quality of avian breeding habitat, but the underlying assumptions of these metrics rarely have been examined. When birds are attracted to breeding areas in part by the presence of conspecifics and when breeding in groups influences predation rates, the effectiveness of density and reproductive rate as indicators of habitat quality is reduced. It is beneficial to clearly distinguish between individual‐ and population‐level processes when evaluating habitat quality. We use the term reproductive rate to refer to both levels and further distinguish among levels by using the terms per capita fecundity (number of female offspring per female per year, individual level) and population growth rate (the product of density and per capita fecundity, population level). We predicted how density and reproductive rate interact over time under density‐independent and density‐dependent scenarios, assuming the ideal free distribution model of how birds settle in breeding habitats. We predicted population density of small populations would be correlated positively with both per capita fecundity and population growth rate due to the Allee effect. For populations in the density‐dependent growth phase, we predicted no relation between density and per capita fecundity (because individuals in all patches will equilibrate to the same success rate) and a positive relation between density and population growth rate. Several ecological theories collectively suggest that positive correlations between density and per capita fecundity would be difficult to detect. We constructed a decision tree to guide interpretation of positive, neutral, nonlinear, and negative relations between density and reproductive rates at individual and population levels.  相似文献   

4.
We used a Leslie matrix population model to investigate the impact of a range of harvest rates proposed for Alaskan sea otters (Enhydra lutris). The simulation included an analysis of several population mechanisms that might be important in the natural regulation of sea otter populations or in their reactions to harvesting. Significant differences in equilibrium population levels were found between compensatory mechanisms when fixed harvest rates were applied for 25-year periods. Adult harvests set at 2 and 4% of the total population showed that new stable population levels were rapidly attained. Harvest rates of 8 and 10%, however, resulted in marked population declines in simulated harvests. This analysis demonstrates that limited harvesting can be sustained by the population and that otter population compensation responses will be a critical determinant of sustainable harvest rates of sea otter populations.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract: Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.  相似文献   

6.
Wildlife consumption can be viewed as an ecosystem provisioning service (the production of a material good through ecological functioning) because of wildlife's ability to persist under sustainable levels of harvest. We used the case of wildlife harvest and consumption in northeastern Madagascar to identify the distribution of these services to local households and communities to further our understanding of local reliance on natural resources. We inferred these benefits from demand curves built with data on wildlife sales transactions. On average, the value of wildlife provisioning represented 57% of annual household cash income in local communities from the Makira Natural Park and Masoala National Park, and harvested areas produced an economic return of U.S.$0.42 ha?1· year?1. Variability in value of harvested wildlife was high among communities and households with an approximate 2 orders of magnitude difference in the proportional value of wildlife to household income. The imputed price of harvested wildlife and its consumption were strongly associated (p< 0.001), and increases in price led to reduced harvest for consumption. Heightened monitoring and enforcement of hunting could increase the costs of harvesting and thus elevate the price and reduce consumption of wildlife. Increased enforcement would therefore be beneficial to biodiversity conservation but could limit local people's food supply. Specifically, our results provide an estimate of the cost of offsetting economic losses to local populations from the enforcement of conservation policies. By explicitly estimating the welfare effects of consumed wildlife, our results may inform targeted interventions by public health and development specialists as they allocate sparse funds to support regions, households, or individuals most vulnerable to changes in access to wildlife. Valoración Económica de la Caza de Subsistencia de Vida Silvestre en Madagascar  相似文献   

7.
The role of non-timber forest products in sustaining rural economies of the southern African region has been underestimated because of inadequate policy recognition. As a result, factors affecting the sustainability of these important resources are being undermined. The aim of the paper is to examine trade in two selected NTFPs and implications for sustaining the resource base in Zimbabwe and South Africa. In eastern Zimbabwe, baobab (Adansonia digitata) bark is harvested for craft purposes, but in danger of destruction in the short term as a result of harvesting and trade arrangements. Unless appropriate harvesting and marketing mechanisms including harvesting cycles and adaptive management are adopted, the baobabs and livelihoods of humans will be threatened in the next decade. For wood products from communal woodlands in the South African study, uncontrolled trade poses danger to sustaining the natural woodlands. In both case studies, the role of non-resident NTFP dealers is a source of inevitable threat in promoting sustainable harvesting and trade. Market forces of demand and supply factors are identified as opportunities or threats and presented in a conceptualised framework. Additionally, the NTFP sector management will need to include opportunistic improvement of small-scale agropastoralism.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract: Bioclimatic envelope models of species’ responses to climate change are used to predict how species will respond to increasing temperatures. These models are frequently based on the assumption that the northern and southern boundaries of a species’ range define its thermal niche. However, this assumption may be violated if populations are adapted to local temperature regimes and have evolved population‐specific thermal optima. Considering the prevalence of local adaptation, the assumption of a species‐wide thermal optimum may be violated for many species. We used spatially and temporally extensive demographic data for American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) to examine range‐wide variation in response of population growth rate (λ) to climatic factors. Our results suggest adaptation to local temperature, but not precipitation. For each population, λ was maximized when annual temperatures were similar to site‐specific, long‐term mean temperatures. Populations from disparate climatic zones responded differently to temperature variation, and there was a linear relation between population‐level thermal optima and the 30‐year mean temperature at each site. For species that are locally adapted to temperature, bioclimatic envelope models may underestimate the extent to which increasing temperatures will decrease population growth rate. Because any directional change from long‐term mean temperatures will decrease population growth rates, all populations throughout a species’ range will be adversely affected by temperature increase, not just populations at southern and low‐elevation boundaries. Additionally, when a species’ local thermal niche is narrower than its range‐wide thermal niche, a smaller temperature increase than would be predicted by bioclimatic envelope approaches may be sufficient to decrease population growth.  相似文献   

9.
Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift and can influence the level of genetic diversity a population can maintain. Assessing how changes in demographic rates associated with environmental variables and management actions affect N(e) thus can be crucial to the conservation of endangered species. Calculation of N(e) through demographic models makes it possible to use elasticity analyses to study this issue. The elasticity of N(e) to a given vital rate is the proportional change in N(e) associated with a proportional increase in that vital rate. In addition, demographic models can be used to study N(e) and population growth rate (λ) simultaneously. Simultaneous examination is important because some vital rates differ diametrically in their associations with λ and N(e). For example, in some cases increasing these vital rates increases λ and decreases N(e). We used elasticity analysis to study the effect of stage-specific survival and flowering rates on N(e), annual effective population size (N(a)), and λ in seven populations of the endangered plant Austrian dragonhead (Dracocephalum austriacum). In populations with λ ≥ 1, the elasticities of N(e) and N(a) were similar to those of λ. Survival rates of adults were associated with greater elasticities than survival rates of juveniles, flowering rates, or fecundity. In populations with λ < 1, N(e) and N(a) exhibited greater elasticities to juvenile than to adult vital rates. These patterns are similar to those observed in other species with similar life histories. We did not observe contrasting effects of any vital rate on λ and N(e); thus, management actions that increase the λ of populations of Austrian dragonhead will not increase genetic drift. Our results show that elasticity analyses of N(e) and N(a) can complement elasticity analysis of λ. Moreover, such analyses do not require more data than standard matrix models of population dynamics.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract: In Canada and the United States pressure to recoup financial costs of wildfire by harvesting burned timber is increasing, despite insufficient understanding of the ecological consequences of postfire salvage logging. We compared the species richness and composition of deadwood‐associated beetle assemblages among undisturbed, recently burned, logged, and salvage‐logged, boreal, mixed‐wood stands. Species richness was lowest in salvage‐logged stands, largely due to a negative effect of harvesting on the occurrence of wood‐ and bark‐boring species. In comparison with undisturbed stands, the combination of wildfire and logging in salvage‐logged stands had a greater effect on species composition than either disturbance alone. Strong differences in species composition among stand treatments were linked to differences in quantity and quality (e.g., decay stage) of coarse woody debris. We found that the effects of wildfire and logging on deadwood‐associated beetles were synergistic, such that the effects of postfire salvage logging could not be predicted reliably on the basis of data on either disturbance alone. Thus, increases in salvage logging of burned forests may have serious negative consequences for deadwood‐associated beetles and their ecological functions in early postfire successional forests.  相似文献   

11.
Protected areas (PAs) represent a key global strategy in biodiversity conservation. In tropical developing countries, the management of PAs is a great challenge as many contain resources on which local communities rely. Collection and trading of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) is a well-established forest-based livelihood strategy, which has been promoted as a potential means for enhanced conservation and improved rural livelihoods in recent years, even though the sustainability or ecological implications have rarely been tested. We conducted an exploratory survey to understand the role and stakeholder views on conservation prospects and perceived ecological feasibility of NTFPs and harvesting schemes in a northeastern PA of Bangladesh, namely the Satchari National Park. Households (n?=?101) were interviewed from three different forest dependency categories, adopting a stratified random sampling approach and using a semi-structured questionnaire. The study identified 13 locally important NTFPs, with five being critically important to supporting local livelihoods. Our study suggests that collection, processing and trading in NTFPs constitutes the primary occupation for about 18% of local inhabitants and account for an estimated 19% of their cash annual income. The household consensus on issues relating to NTFPs and their prospective role in conservation was surprisingly high, with 48% of respondents believing that promotion of NTFPs in the PA could have positive conservation value. The majority (71%) of households also had some understanding of the ecological implications of NTFP harvesting, sustainability (53%) and possible management and monitoring regimes (100%). With little known about their real application in the field, our study suggests further investigations are required to understand the ecological compatibility of traditional NTFP harvesting patterns and management.  相似文献   

12.
Forest management often represents a balance between social, economic, and ecological objectives. In the eastern United States, numerous studies have established that terrestrial salamander populations initially decline in abundance following timber harvest, yet the large‐scale and long‐term consequences are relatively unknown. We used count data from terrestrial survey points to examine the relation between salamander abundance and historic timber harvest while accounting for imperfect detection of individuals. Overall, stream‐ and terrestrial‐breeding salamanders appeared to differ by magnitude of population decline, rate of population recovery, and extent of recolonization from surrounding forest. Specifically, estimated abundance of both species groups was positively associated with stand age and recovery rates were predicted to increase over time for red‐legged salamanders (Plethodon shermani) and decrease in stream‐breeding species. Abundance of stream‐breeding salamanders was predicted to reach a peak by 100 years after timber harvest, and the population growth rate of red‐legged salamanders was predicted to undergo a significant increase 100 years after harvest. Estimated abundance of stream‐breeding salamanders in young forest stands was also negatively associated with the distance to adjacent forest, a result that suggests immigration has a role in the recovery of these species. Our results indicate that salamander abundance in young forest stands may be only modestly lower than in more mature forest but that full recovery from timber harvest may take a substantial amount of time and that species life history may affect patterns of recovery. Historia de Vida como un Vaticinador de la Tasa de Recuperación de una Salamandra a la Colecta de Madera en los Bosques del Sur de los Apalaches, E.U.A  相似文献   

13.
Abstract: Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no‐take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade‐offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level. Thus, catch shares and no‐take reserves can be complementary and when these methods are used jointly they promote lower total allowable catches when harvest is relatively high and encourage larger no‐take areas when they are small.  相似文献   

14.
Irreplaceable, self‐organizing landforms and the endemic and ecologically specialized biodiversity they support are threatened globally by anthropogenic disturbances. Although the outcome of disrupting landforms is somewhat understood, little information exists that documents population consequences of landform disturbance on endemic biodiversity. Conservation strategies for species dependent upon landforms have been difficult to devise because they require understanding complex feedbacks that create and maintain landforms and the consequences of landform configuration on demography of species. We characterized and quantified links between landform configuration and demography of an ecological specialist, the dunes sagebrush lizard (Sceloporus arenicolus), which occurs only in blowouts (i.e., wind‐blown sandy depressions) of Shinnery oak (Quercus havardii) sand‐dune landforms. We used matrix models to estimate vital rates from a multisite mark‐recapture study of 6 populations occupying landforms with different spatial configurations. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses demonstrated demographic rates among populations varied in sensitivity to different landform configurations. Specifically, significant relationships between blowout shape complexity and vital rate elasticities suggested direct links between S. arenicolus demography and amount of edge in Shinnery oak sand‐dune landforms. These landforms are irreplaceable, based on permanent transition of disturbed areas to alternative grassland ecosystem states. Additionally, complex feedbacks between wind, sand, and Shinnery oak maintain this landform, indicating restoration through land management practices is unlikely. Our findings that S. arenicolus population dynamics depended on landform configuration suggest that failure to consider processes of landform organization and their effects on species’ population dynamics may lead to incorrect inferences about threats to endemic species and ineffective habitat management for threatened or endangered species. As such, successful conservation of these systems and the biodiversity they support must be informed by research linking process‐oriented studies of self‐organized landforms with studies of movement, behavior, and demography of species that dwell in them.  相似文献   

15.
Although the genetic and ecological effects of population declines in endangered species have been well studied, little is known of the social consequences. Changes in signaling behavior may result in disrupted communication and affect both reproductive and conflict‐resolution activities. The North Island Kōkako (Callaeas wilsoni) is an endangered, duetting (i.e., alternating, coordinated singing by mated pairs) songbird endemic to New Zealand temperate rain forests. Scattered populations (approximately 1500 individuals in 13 surviving and 11 translocated populations) in isolated conservation areas of different sizes have been rescued from extirpation and are currently recovering. We examined key song attributes of the Kōkako to assess whether population size or growth rate are related to song complexity, the reduction of which may compromise effective communication. We analyzed song repertoire size and phrase‐type sharing (i.e., Jaccard index of similarity), vocal performance (singing rates, song switching rates, and diversity of phrase types), and song syntactical characteristics (i.e., unpredictability in sequences of phrase types) in surviving and translocated populations (populations of approximately 19–250 territorial individuals). Population size was positively correlated with a population's song repertoire, song diversity, and switching of song phrase types and negatively correlated with shared phrase types and variation in syntactical structure of songs. Population growth rate correlated positively with pair repertoire size, population repertoire size, and singing rates during song bouts. As for solo‐singing species in fragmented landscapes, songs in the fragmented populations of Kōkako appear to be undergoing microevolution as occurs in island colonization events. Our results suggest that vocal changes in small populations could affect population establishment and growth, particularly in multiple‐source translocations. We believe measurement of vocal behavior could be used as a supplement to periodic population censuses to allow more frequent monitoring of population size. Efectos de la Conducta de Canto sobre el Tamaño Poblacional de una Ave Canora Rara  相似文献   

16.
Abstract: The Northwest Forest Plan was implemented in 1994 to protect habitat for species associated with old‐growth forests, including Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentailis caurina) in Washington, Oregon, and northern California (U.S.A.). Nevertheless, 10‐year monitoring data indicate mixed success in meeting the ecological goals of the plan. We used the ecosystem management decision‐support model to evaluate terrestrial and aquatic habitats across the landscape on the basis of ecological objectives of the Northwest Forest Plan, which included maintenance of late‐successional and old‐growth forest, recovery, and maintenance of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), and viability of Northern Spotted Owls. Areas of the landscape that contained habitat characteristics that supported these objectives were considered of high conservation value. We used the model to evaluate ecological condition of each of the 36, 180 township and range sections of the study area. Eighteen percent of the study area was identified as habitat of high conservation value. These areas were mostly on public lands. Many of the sections that contained habitat of exceptional conservation value were on Bureau of Land Management land that has been considered for management‐plan revisions to increase timber harvests. The results of our model can be used to guide future land management in the Northwest Forest Plan area, and illustrate how decision‐support models can help land managers develop strategies to better meet their goals.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract: Sport‐fish introductions are now recognized as an important cause of amphibian decline, but few researchers have quantified the demographic responses of amphibians to current options in fisheries management designed to minimize effects on sensitive amphibians. Demographic analyses with mark–recapture data allow researchers to assess the relative importance of survival, local recruitment, and migration to changes in population densities. I conducted a 4‐year, replicated whole‐lake experiment in the Klamath Mountains of northern California (U.S.A.) to quantify changes in population density, survival, population growth rate, and recruitment of the Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in response to manipulations of non‐native fish populations. I compared responses of the frogs in lakes where fish were removed, in lakes in their naturally fish‐free state, and in lakes where fish remained that were either stocked annually or no longer being stocked. Within 3 years of fish removals from 3 lakes, frog densities increased by a factor of 13.6. The survival of young adult frogs increased from 59% to 94%, and realized population growth and recruitment rates at the fish‐removal lakes were more than twice as high as the rates for fish‐free reference lakes and lakes that contained fish. Population growth in the fish‐removal lakes was likely due to better on‐site recruitment of frogs to later life stages rather than increased immigration. The effects on R. cascadae of suspending stocking were ambiguous and suggested no direct benefit to amphibians. With amphibians declining worldwide, these results show that active restoration can slow or reverse the decline of species affected by fish stocking within a short time frame.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract: Ecosystem fragmentation and destruction can lead to restrictive administration policies on traditional harvesting by indigenous peoples from remaining ecosystem tracts. In New Zealand, concerns about endangered species and governmental policies that focus on species and ecosystem preservation have resulted in severely curtailed traditional harvesting rights. Although provision has been made for limited gathering of traditional plants from government‐administered conservation lands, it is unclear how much harvesting is undertaken on these lands and elsewhere and what this harvest might consist of. We interviewed seven expert Maori elders from the Waikato, New Zealand, to identify plant species they currently harvested and from where. We compared these data with the data we collected on permits issued for plant collecting on conservation lands in the same region. We sought to gain information on indigenous plant harvesting to determine the extent of permitted harvesting from conservation lands in the Waikato and to identify issues that might affect plant harvesting and management. Elders identified 58 species they harvest regularly or consider culturally important; over 50% of these species are harvested for medicinal use. Permit data from 1996 to 2006 indicated no apparent relationship between species of reported cultural significance and the number of permits issued for each of these species. Currently, few plant species are harvested from conservation lands, although some unofficial harvesting occurs. Elders instead reported that medicinal plants are frequently collected from urban and other public areas. They reported that plant species used for dyeing, carving, and weaving are difficult to access. Elders also discussed concerns such as spraying of roadsides, which resulted in the death of medicinal species, and use of commercial hybrids in urban planning. Local government may have an increasingly important role in supporting native traditions through urban planning, which takes account of cultural harvesting needs while potentially reducing future harvesting pressure on conservation lands. We suggest that active participation by the Māori community in the development and management of urban harvesting resources will result in positive outcomes.  相似文献   

19.
The forests of southeastern Alaska remain largely intact and contain a substantial proportion of Earth's remaining old‐growth temperate rainforest. Nonetheless, industrial‐scale logging has occurred since the 1950s within a relatively narrow range of forest types that has never been quantified at a regional scale. We analyzed historical patterns of logging from 1954 through 2004 and compared the relative rates of change among forest types, landform associations, and biogeographic provinces. We found a consistent pattern of disproportionate logging at multiple scales, including large‐tree stands and landscapes with contiguous productive old‐growth forests. The highest rates of change were among landform associations and biogeographic provinces that originally contained the largest concentrations of productive old growth (i.e., timber volume >46.6 m3/ha). Although only 11.9% of productive old‐growth forests have been logged region wide, large‐tree stands have been reduced by at least 28.1%, karst forests by 37%, and landscapes with the highest volume of contiguous old growth by 66.5%. Within some island biogeographic provinces, loss of rare forest types may place local viability of species dependent on old growth at risk of extirpation. Examination of historical patterns of change among ecological forest types can facilitate planning for conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of forest resources. El Uso de Patrones Históricos de Tala para Identificar Ecosistemas Talados Desproporcionadamente en Bosques Lluviosos Templados del Sureste de Alaska Albert & Schoen 11‐839  相似文献   

20.
Abstract: The mandate to increase endangered salmon populations in the Columbia River Basin of North America has created a complex, controversial resource‐management issue. We constructed an integrated assessment model as a tool for analyzing biological‐economic trade‐offs in recovery of Snake River spring‐ and summer‐run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We merged 3 frameworks: a salmon‐passage model to predict migration and survival of smolts; an age‐structured matrix model to predict long‐term population growth rates of salmon stocks; and a cost‐effectiveness analysis to determine a set of least‐cost management alternatives for achieving particular population growth rates. We assessed 6 individual salmon‐management measures and 76 management alternatives composed of one or more measures. To reflect uncertainty, results were derived for different assumptions of effectiveness of smolt transport around dams. Removal of an estuarine predator, the Caspian Tern (Sterna caspia), was cost‐effective and generally increased long‐term population growth rates regardless of transport effectiveness. Elimination of adult salmon harvest had a similar effect over a range of its cost estimates. The specific management alternatives in the cost‐effective set depended on assumptions about transport effectiveness. On the basis of recent estimates of smolt transport effectiveness, alternatives that discontinued transportation or breached dams were prevalent in the cost‐effective set, whereas alternatives that maximized transportation dominated if transport effectiveness was relatively high. More generally, the analysis eliminated 80–90% of management alternatives from the cost‐effective set. Application of our results to salmon management is limited by data availability and model assumptions, but these limitations can help guide research that addresses critical uncertainties and information. Our results thus demonstrate that linking biology and economics through integrated models can provide valuable tools for science‐based policy and management.  相似文献   

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