Personality and risk perception in transport

Within research on individual variations in risk perception, personality has been suggested as one important factor. In the present study, personality traits (44 items from the Big Five inventory) were investigated in relation to risk perception in transport and transport behavioural adaptations. In a sample of 312 participants, we found that the personality trait ‘emotional stability versus neuroticism’ was negatively correlated with risk perception (operationalised as “thinking about the possibility”) of an accident (−0.38) and an unpleasant incident, such as crime, violence, robbery (−0.25). ‘Agreeableness’ was also negatively related to risk perception, however first and foremost in relation to perceived risk for unpleasant incidents on transport modes in which one interacts with other people (0.25). Moreover, regression analyses showed that ‘emotional stability’ was a significant predictor of behavioural adaptations on bus. Regression analyses explained between 17 and 26 percent of variance in behavioural adaptations. The results show that different groups of people vary systematically in their perception of risk in transport. Furthermore, these differences are manifest as a difference in risk-preventive behaviour at a strategic level, i.e. as decisions about avoiding risky situations.     

Willingness to pay for road safety and estimates of the risk of death: evidence from a Swedish contingent valuation study

We examine how WTP for a reduction in road-mortality risk varies with different individual characteristics and how subjective mortality-risk estimates differ from objective (statistical) mortality-risk values. Using data from a Swedish contingent valuation study, we find some support that WTP declines with age and background risk, but we find no support that WTP varies with health status. Further, we find that respondents underassess their own mortality risks, both road- and total-mortality risks, compared to the objective risk measures for Sweden at the time of the survey.     

Powered two-wheelers road accidents and their risk perception in dense urban areas: Case of Paris

For a few years, the use of powered two-wheelers has taken off in Paris. It then became critical for the City of Paris to understand both the mechanisms leading to traffic accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers user and the perception of their risk when riding in dense urban areas. In so doing, two studies were carried out along similar lines so that their results could be compared. The first study focused on the perception of situations where accidents are most likely to occur. The second one was an analysis of police reports of accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers and the drawing-up of prototypical accident scenarios. Comparing the results of the two studies revealed a gap between perceived and objective risks of these users. In fact, they rather fear the situations during which a car driver is changing lanes, while accidents involving them occur more often when a car driver turns (right, left or U). Knowledge of this dissonance in terms of awareness of road risks for powered two-wheelers and equally, other road users, will give the City of Paris food for thought. The promising results of this study have encouraged the City of Paris to extend it to other types of users, such as cyclists or elderly pedestrians.     

How accurately does the public perceive differences in transport risks?: An exploratory analysis of scales representing perceived risk

This paper probes the extent to which the public accurately perceives differences in transport risks. The paper is based on a survey of a random sample of the Norwegian population, conducted in September 2003. In the survey, respondents were asked: “How safe do you think it is to travel by means of (bus, train, etc.)?” Answers were given as: very safe, safe, a little unsafe, and very unsafe. A cursory examination of the answers suggested that the Norwegian public was quite well informed about differences in the risk of accident between different modes of transport, as well as between groups formed according to age and gender for each mode of transport. This paper probes the relationship between statistical estimates of risk and summary representations of perceived risk more systematically. It is found that the differences in fatality rate between different modes of transport are quite well perceived by the Norwegian public, irrespective of the way in which perceived risk is represented numerically. The relationship between statistical estimates of risk and numerical representations of perceived risk for each mode of transport is more sensitive to the choice of a numerical representation of perceived risk. A scale in which the answer “very safe” is assigned the value of 0.01 and the answer “very unsafe” is assigned the value of 10 is found to perform quite well. When the perception of risk is represented numerically according to this scale, a positive correlation between statistically estimated risk and perceived risk is found in seven of the eight comparisons that were made to determine how well variation in accident rates according to age and gender for car occupants, car drivers, cyclists and pedestrians are perceived.     

Sleep-related car crashes: risk perception and decision-making processes in young drivers

The aim of the present study is to analyse factors affecting worries, coping strategies and decisions of young drivers regarding the risk of sleep-related car crashes. Furthermore, the study also analyses whether framing the same information about sleepiness in two different linguistic forms influences: (1) the evaluation of the level of risk associated to a specific level of drowsiness (Attribute Framing problem); (2) the willingness to enact strategies to "prevent" sleepiness before night-time driving (Goal Framing problem); (3) the choice between two different ways, both of equal expected efficacy, of lowering drowsiness (Risky decision-making Framing problem). Six hundred and ninety-five young drivers [(57.6% females, 42.4% males); mean age 20.85 years (S.D.=1.2)] answered questions on drive risk perception and sleepiness, on nocturnal driving experience and on the strategies to deal with driver sleepiness, responding to one of the two different versions of the framed problems. A sub-sample of 130 participants completed the framed problems in both versions. The results show that experiences of sleep attacks and nocturnal driving frequency in the past 6 months affect both risk perception and the preventive strategies adopted. Furthermore, the manipulation on two out of the three problems (attribute and risky decision-making frames) significantly affected the respondents' evaluation.     

Age and gender differences in risky driving: the roles of positive affect and risk perception

A phone survey of 504 teen (age 16–20) and 409 adult (age 25–45) drivers in the US state of Alabama was conducted to examine the relationships among risk perception, positive affect and risky driving. Male drivers reported engaging in risky driving behaviors more frequently than female drivers and teen drivers reported engaging in risky driving behaviors more frequently than adult drivers. Positive affect (liking for risky driving behaviors) and perceived risk mediated the relationships of age and gender with risky driving. Affect and risk perception were independent predictors of risky driving behavior. Interactions of positive affect and perceived risk with gender and age showed that positive affect more strongly predicted risky driving for teen and male drivers than for adult and female drivers. These findings are interpreted in the context of dual process models of behavioral decision making. Future research into interventions designed to moderate the positive affect surrounding driving may have promise for reducing risky driving behavior.     

Driving under the influence of distraction: Examining dissociations between risk perception and engagement in distracted driving

Driving while distracted is a critical and unwavering problem in the United States leading to numerous injuries and fatalities each year. While increasing legislation and developing technological interventions strive to ensure we only focus on driving, individuals still drive distracted. We surveyed college-aged adults to examine the factors that influence both their risk perception of driving while distracted and how often they engage in distracting activities and situations while driving. We found a disassociation between individuals’ perception of driving distraction risk and their engagement with the distraction. Exposure, perceived knowledge of risks, fairness beliefs, and ratings of perceived visual and cognitive demands was associated with risk perception. Conversely, risk-seeking traits, how voluntary the task was perceived, and previous exposure to a distraction influenced engagement. Overall, we recommend additional research focusing on factors that predict engagement in driver distraction rather than perceived risk alone.     

ADHD and relative risk of accidents in road traffic: A meta-analysis

The present meta-analysis is based on 16 studies comprising 32 results. These studies provide sufficient data to estimate relative accident risks of drivers with ADHD. The overall estimate of relative risk for drivers with ADHD is 1.36 (95% CI: 1.18; 1.57) without control for exposure, 1.29 (1.12; 1.49) when correcting for publication bias, and 1.23 (1.04; 1.46) when controlling for exposure. A relative risk (RR) of 1.23 is exactly the same as found for drivers with cardiovascular diseases. The long-lasting assertion that “ADHD-drivers have an almost fourfold risk of accident compared to non-ADHD-drivers”, which originated from Barkley et al.’s study of 1993, is rebutted. That estimate was associated with comorbid Oppositional Defiant Disorder (ODD) and/or Conduct Disorder (CD), not with ADHD, but the assertion has incorrectly been maintained for two decades. The present study provides some support for the hypothesis that the relative accident risk of ADHD-drivers with comorbid ODD, CD and/or other conduct problems, is higher than that of ADHD-drivers without these comorbidities. The estimated RRs were 1.86 (1.27; 2.75) in a sample of ADHD-drivers in which a majority had comorbid ODD and/or CD compared to 1.31 (0.96; 1.81) in a sample of ADHD-drivers with no comorbidity. Given that ADHD-drivers most often seem to drive more than controls, and the fact that a majority of the present studies lack information about exposure, it seems more probable that the true RR is lower rather than higher than 1.23. Also the assertion that ADHD-drivers violate traffic laws more often than other drivers should be modified: ADHD-drivers do have more speeding violations, but no more drunk or reckless driving citations than drivers without ADHD. All accident studies included in the meta-analysis fail to acknowledge the distinction between deliberate violations and driving errors. The former are known to be associated with accidents, the latter are not. A hypothesis that ADHD-drivers speed more frequently than controls because it stimulates attention and reaction time is suggested.     

Addressing the road trauma burden in China: Exploring attitudes,behaviours, risk perceptions and cultural uniqueness

As China continues to motorise rapidly, solutions are needed to reduce the burden of road trauma that is spread inequitably across the community. Little is currently known about how new drivers are trained to deal with on-road challenges, and little is also known about the perceptions, behaviours and attitudes of road users in China. This paper reports on a pilot study conducted in a driver retraining facility in one Chinese city where people who have had their licence suspended for accrual of 12 demerit points in a one year period must attend compulsory retraining in order to regain their licence. A sample of 239 suspended drivers responded to an anonymous questionnaire that sought information about preferred driving speeds and perceptions of safe driving speeds across two speed zones. Responses indicated that speeds higher than the posted limits were commonly reported, and that there was incongruence between preferred and safe speeds, such that a greater proportion of drivers reported preferred speeds that were substantially faster than what were reported as safe speeds. Participants with more driving experience reported significantly fewer crashes than newly licensed drivers (less than 2 years licensed) but no differences were found in offences when compared across groups with different levels of driving experience. Perceptions of risky behaviours were assessed by asking participants to describe what they considered to be the most dangerous on-road behaviours. Speeding and drink driving were the most commonly reported by far, followed by issues such as fatigue, ignoring traffic rules, not obeying traffic rules, phone use while driving, and non-use of seatbelts, which attracted an extremely low response which seems consistent with previously reported low belt wearing rates, unfavourable attitudes towards seatbelt use, and low levels of enforcement. Finally, observations about culturally specific considerations are made from previous research conducted by the authors and others. Specifically, issues of saving face and the importance and pervasiveness of social networks and social influence are discussed with particular regard to how any future countermeasures need to be informed by a thorough understanding of Chinese customs and culture.     

Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: A systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies

This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors.     

Cell phone conversing while driving in New Zealand: prevalence, risk perception and legislation

This study investigated (i) the prevalence of conversing on a cell phone while driving in New Zealand, (ii) respondents’ perception of risk regarding this behaviour and (iii) attitudes towards legislation banning cell phone use while driving. In addition, the study examined the association between the prevalence of conversing on a cell phone and risk perception. Anonymous, self-reported, survey data was collected via the internet from 1057 drivers nationwide regarding the frequency of conversing on a cell phone, including hands-free and hand-held conversing, risk perception, views on legislation, and demographic information. A positive relationship was found between the frequency of conversing on a cell phone and risk perception; that is, as the frequency of conversing on a cell phone increased, the perceived risk of this behaviour decreased.     

基于策略顾客和网络外部性的零售商预售

为了探讨零售商预售折扣和预售量对其收益的影响,构建了基于顾客策略行为和网络外部性的需求函数。通过比较静态分析,得到零售商的最优订货量和进行预售的条件。同时指出最佳的预售量依赖于市场的实际需求。在此基础上,通过数值算例分析了网络外部性对零售商预售折扣、预售条件和预售量的影响,结果表明,当网络外部性高于0.3时,零售商开始实施预售策略,当网络外部性高于0.6时,预售折扣将减小,同时零售商收益将提高。所得结果为零售商的销售策略提供了参考。     

Fatigue risk management: Organizational factors at the regulatory and industry/company level

This paper focuses on the development of fatigue risk management systems (FRMS) in the transport sector. The evolution of regulatory frameworks is traced, from uni-dimensional hours of service regulations through to frameworks that enable multi-dimensional FRMS. These regulatory changes reflect advances in understanding of human error in the aetiology of accidents, and in fatigue and safety science. Implementation of FRMS shifts the locus of responsibility for safety away from the regulator towards companies and individuals, and requires changes in traditional roles. Organizational, ethnic, and national culture need to be considered. Recent trends in the work environment have potential to adversely affect FRMS, including precarious employment and shortages of skilled labour. Essential components of an FRMS, and examples of FRMS in different transport modes, are described. It is vital that regulators, employer, and employees have an understanding of the causes and consequences of fatigue that is sufficient for them to meet their responsibilities in relation to FRMS. While there is a strong evidence base supporting the principles of FRMS, experience with implementation is more limited. The evidence base for effective implementation will expand, since FRMS is data-driven, and ongoing evaluation is integral. We strongly advocate that experience be shared wherever possible.     

Innovation and market regulation: evidence from the European electricity industry

This paper studies the effects of changes in the level of product market regulation on the industry-level innovation intensity in the EU electricity sector during years 1990–2009. In order to test the impact of deregulatory policies on the propensity to innovate in energy technologies, we match data on R&D budgets and European Patent Office patent applications from International Energy Agency and Eurostat Databases with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development indexes of product market regulation. The analysis addresses innovations in the traditional electricity-related technologies, but keeping aside renewable energy technologies. Findings show an increase in patenting activities following market deregulation, measured along three factors: entry barriers, public ownership and vertical integration. In particular, econometric results suggest that policies aimed at reducing vertical integration – i.e. to unbundle networks from energy generation and supply – have a positive impact on innovation activity. Results are robust to the introduction of controls for country-level public R&D expenditures in the electricity field.     

An epidemiological study of the risk of cycling in the dark: The role of visual perception,conspicuity and alcohol use

To curtail the rising numbers of cyclists seriously injured in road crashes, more insights are needed into the factors that contribute to these crashes. For instance, darkness is known to be associated with higher injury rates, but little is known about the relative influence of factors such as poor conspicuity, impaired perception and alcohol use among cyclists. To examine these factors, the present study analyzed the epidemiological crash data for three meteorological light conditions: daylight, late evening darkness and early morning darkness; for two crash types: crashes with (M-crashes) and without motorized traffic (NM-crashes); and for different age groups. The relative injury rates (injury risk per distance travelled in darkness corrected for daylight injury risks for each age group) confirmed findings from earlier studies that cycling in late evening darkness is associated with higher injury rates than cycling in daylight conditions. This is the case for both crash types with only small differences between the age groups suggesting that poor conspicuity (M-crashes) and impaired perception (NM-crashes) may play a role. In comparison to late evening darkness, relative injury rates in early morning darkness are much higher. This is the case for both crash types with large differences among the age groups, suggesting that in addition to the absence of daylight also age related risk factors are at play. Support for this hypothesis was found from the analyses of hospital records, showing that the proportion of seriously injured cyclists who have been drinking is highest in early morning darkness and has strongly increased over the last decades. These insights provide input for the selection of countermeasures such as improved lighting (both street and bicycle lights) and interventions targeting alcohol use among cyclists.     

A test of Rasmussen's risk management framework in the food safety domain: BSE in the UK

In 1986, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was identified in the UK. Millions of BSE-infected cows were slaughtered and over 150 people contracted variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease, an inevitably fatal human form of BSE. Tragic incidents such as this provide valuable opportunities to understand and improve the safety of complex socio-technical systems. By studying accidents, knowledge can be gained that can improve system safety. The purpose of this article is to test the usefulness of Rasmussen's risk management framework for explaining how and why accidents occur in the food production domain. This was accomplished by using the framework to retrospectively investigate how and why BSE was transmitted through the human and animal food supply in the UK from 1986 to 1996. More specifically, an AcciMap and Conflict Map were constructed to represent contributing factors of the epidemic according to the structure of Rasmussen's framework. These factors were used to test the seven predictions made by the framework. All seven predictions were supported by the evidence, indicating that Rasmussen's risk management framework shows promise as a theoretically driven explanation of how and why accidents happen in complex socio-technical systems, particularly in the food production domain.     

Getting beyond ‘grin and bear it’ in the practice of risk management

Risk perception researchers frequently notice major discrepancies between expert judgment and lay opinion concerning the identity of ‘large’ risks. These discrepancies are particularly disconcerting because they lead to a significant misallocation of scarce resources devoted to public risk management. Yet, democratic decision-making also appeals to many risk perception researchers, and some see such little prospect for a solution thaty they seem close to surrendering to decision-making based on lay risk perception. This article argues that such a ‘grin and bear it’ strategy is also unsatisfactory; that risk perceptions are unstable grounds for decision-making; that expert risk assessment and lay risk perception differ by design rather than accident; that risk experts' search for ‘virtuous lawmakers’ who would make public decisions for the greatest public good is a vain one; that the dissonance risk perception researchers now observe will likely get worse in the new information age; and that risk perception researchers need to return to first principles to find solutions to these dilemmas. In particular, the gap between expert judgment and lay perception will close only when non-experts are permitted and expected to make their own risk management decisions, so far as that is possible, while bearing full responsibility for their choices.     

Traffic accident statistics and risk perceptions in Japan and the United States

Several recent studies have concluded that Japan and the US have different risk cultures. This study examines the actual risk environments faced by citizens in the two countries, in the domain of traffic safety, as a possible source of differences in risk perceptions. The study contrasts traffic-accident risks from several points of view (e.g. car drivers, motorcyclists, bicyclists and pedestrians) and risk statistics (e.g. death rates, relative fatality risks, and accident lethality). Results clarify the traffic risks in the two countries and confirm their potential for explaining cross-national differences in risk perceptions.     

Exploring the effects of lifestyle, sleep factors and driving behaviors on sleep-related road risk: A study of Greek drivers

Purpose

The present study explored the effect of various lifestyle patterns and sleep-related factors on the sleep-related road risk. Sleep-related factors included daytime sleepiness, drowsy driving and quality/quantify of sleep.

Methods

A sample of 1366 non-professional drivers aged 19–65 was selected from the broader Athens area of Greece, using stratified random sampling. The questionnaire solicited information on the participants’ socio-demographic characteristics, driving background, lifestyle patterns, sleep quality and quantity, daytime sleepiness, drowsy driving behavior and sleep-related road risk.

Results

Sleep-related road risk was affected by gender, quantity of night sleep and drowsy driving behavior. Drowsy driving behavior was shown to be related to gender, daytime sleepiness, sleep quality and the lifestyle of “amusement”. Daytime sleepiness was correlated with sleep quality and the lifestyles of “amusement” and “sport”. Finally, sleep quality and quantity were significantly affected by the lifestyles of “amusement” and “yuppies-workaholic”.

Conclusion

The current study has identified a number of risk factors in sleep-related crash risk in the general population of drivers. By raising public awareness the health and safety community can play an important role in reducing, if not preventing, the consequences of this public health problem.