GIS BASED LONG TERM HYDROLOGIC IMPACT EVALUATION FOR WATERSHED URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: To adequately manage impacts of ongoing or future land use changes in a watershed, the magnitude of their hydrologic impacts needs to be assessed. A grid based daily streamflow model was calibrated with two years of observed streamflow data, using time periods when land use data are available and verified by comparison of model predictions with observed streamflow data. Streamflow data were separated into direct runoff and baseflow to estimate the impacts of urbanization on each hydrologic component. Analysis of the ratio between direct runoff and total runoff from 30 years of simulation results and the change in these ratios with urbanization shows that estimated annual direct runoff increased from 49.2 percent (1973) to 63.1 percent (1984) and 65.0 percent (1991), indicating the effects of urbanization are greater on direct runoff than on total runoff. The direct runoff ratio also varies with annual rainfall, with dry year ratios larger than those for wet years. This suggests that the impact of urbanization on areas that are sensitive to runoff ratios, such as stream ecosystems, might be more serious during drier years than in wetter years in terms of water quality and water yield. This indicates that sustainable base‐flow is important to maintaining sound stream ecosystems.     

THE IMPACT OF RUNOFF GENERATION MECHANISMS ON THE LOCATION OF CRITICAL SOURCE AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Identifying phosphorus (P) source areas and transport pathways is a key step in decreasing P loading to natural water systems. This study compared the effects of two modeled runoff generation processes ‐ saturation excess and infiltration excess ‐ on total phosphorus (TP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations in 10 catchment streams of a Catskill mountain watershed in southeastern New York. The spatial distribution of runoff from forested land and agricultural land was generated for both runoff processes; results of both distributions were consistent with Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) theory. These spatial runoff distributions were then used to simulate stream concentrations of TP and SRP through a simple equation derived from an observed relation between P concentration and land use; empirical results indicate that TP and SRP concentrations increased with increasing percentage of agricultural land. Simulated TP and SRP stream concentrations predicted for the 10 catchments were strongly affected by the assumed runoff mechanism. The modeled TP and SRP concentrations produced by saturation excess distribution averaged 31 percent higher and 42 percent higher, respectively, than those produced by the infiltration excess distribution. Misrepresenting the primary runoff mechanism could not only produce erroneous concentrations, it could fail to correctly locate critical source areas for implementation of best management practices. Thus, identification of the primary runoff mechanism is critical in selection of appropriate models in the mitigation of nonpoint source pollution. Correct representation of runoff processes is also critical in the future development of biogeochemical transport models, especially those that address nutrient fluxes.     

PROJECTION OF URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON RUNOFF USING CLARK INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPH PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: To alleviate serious flooding problems brought upon by rapid urbanization in the Beargrass Creek watershed, located in Louisville, Kentucky, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers undertook a major flood study in 1973. In order to predict flood conditions in 1990, the year when the watershed was expected to undergo complete urbanization, trends in the Clark Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (Clark IUH) parameters were utilized to determine the 1990 unit hydrograph and flood conditions. Based on the results from this flood study, this paper demonstrates the applicability of using projected Clark IUH parameters for modeling future runoff conditions in an urbanizing watershed. Values of these parameters, as estimated from maximum annual historical flood data, are used to develop regression models for predicting future Clark IUH parameters. Using the projected parameters, selected annual flood events since 1973 are simulated in order to verify the accuracy of these projections. Results show a close correspondence between the simulated and observed flood characteristics. Hence, the use of projected Clark IUH parameters is an appropriate procedure for modeling future runoff conditions in an urbanizing watershed.     

EFFECTS OF INITIAL ABSTRACTION AND URBANIZATION ON ESTIMATED RUNOFF USING CN TECHNOLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Few studies have been conducted to explore the effects of initial abstraction on estimated direct runoff despite the widespread use of the curve number (CN) method in many hydrologic models to estimate direct runoff. In this study, use of a 5 percent ratio of initial abstraction (I_a) to storage (S) to estimate daily direct runoff with modified CN values for a 5 percent I_a/S value was investigated using the Long‐Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L‐THIA) geographic information system (GIS). In addition, the effects on estimated runoff of altering the hydrologic soil group due to urbanization were investigated. The L‐THIA model was applied to the Indiana Little Eagle Creek watershed with 5 percent and 20 percent I_a/S values, considering hydrologic soil group alteration due to urbanization. The results indicate that uses of a 5 percent l_a/S and modified CN values and Hydrologic Soil Group D for urbanized areas in model runs can improve long term direct runoff prediction.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED URBANIZATION AND IMPACTS ON WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban runoff contributes to nonpoint source pollution, but there is little understanding of the way that pattern and extent of urbanization contributes to this problem. Indicators of type and density of urbanization and access to municipal services were examined in six urban watersheds in Durham, North Carolina. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to identify patterns in the distribution of these variables across the urban landscape. While spatial variation in urban environments is not perfectly captured by any one variable, the results suggest that most of the variation can be explained using several variables related to the extent and distribution of urban development. Multiple linear regression models were fit to relate these urbanization indicators to total phosphorus, total kjeldahl nitrogen, total suspended solids, and fecal coliforms. Development density was correlated to decreased water quality in each of the models. Indicators of urbanization type such as the house age, amount of contiguous impervious surface, and stormwater connectivity explained additional variation. In the nutrient models, access to city services was also an important factor. The results indicate that while urbanization density is important in predicting water quality, indicators of urbanization type and access to city services help explain additional variation in the models.     

EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON CHANNEL INSTABILITY1

ABSTRACT: Channel instability and aquatic ecosystem degradation have been linked to watershed imperviousness in humid regions of the U.S. In an effort to provide a more process‐based linkage between observed thresholds of aquatic ecosystem degradation and urbanization, standard single event approaches (U.S. Geological Survey Flood Regression Equations and rational) and continuous hydrologic models (HSPF and CASC2D) were used to examine potential changes in flow regime associated with varying levels of watershed imperviousness. The predicted changes in flow parameters were then interpreted in concert with risk‐based models of channel form and instability. Although low levels of imperviousness (10 to 20 percent) clearly have the potential to destabilize streams, changes in discharge, and thus stream power, associated with increased impervious area are highly variable and dependent upon watershed‐specific conditions. In addition to the storage characteristics of the pre‐development watershed, the magnitude of change is sensitive to the connectivity and conveyance of impervious areas as well as the specific characteristics of the receiving channels. Different stream types are likely to exhibit varying degrees and types of instability, depending on entrenchment, relative erodibility of bed and banks, riparian condition, mode of sediment transport (bedload versus suspended load), and proximity to geomorphic thresholds. Nonetheless, simple risk‐based analyses of the potential impacts of land use change on aquatic ecosystems have the potential to redirect and improve the effectiveness of watershed management strategies by facilitating the identification of channels that may be most sensitive to changes in stream power.     

IMPACT OF WATERSHED URBANIZATION ON STREAM INSECT COMMUNITIES1

ABSTRACT: The impact of urbanization on stream insect communities was determined by sampling 22 sites in northern Virginia representing a range of human population densities. Watershed development had little effect on the total insect numbers (no./m²), but shifted the taxonomic composition markedly. Relative abundance of Diptera (mainly chironomids) increased at more highly urbanized sites, while most other insect orders including Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Coleoptera (bettles), Megaloptera (dobsonflies), and Plecoptera (stone-flies) decreased. Trichoptera (caddisfiles) exhibited a variable response. Genus diversity and richness (number of genera) were significantly higher in less urbanized streams. Two genera of chironomids were positively correlated with increased urbanization, while 14 other genera (scattered through several orders) were negatively related to human population density. Principal components analysis demonstrated a gradient from more urbanized to less urbanized stations based on generic and order level biological data. Results of this study indicate that watershed urbanization has a major impact on benthic insect communities even in the absence of point source discharges.     

NATIONWIDE ASSESSMENT OF URBAN RUNOFF IMPACT ON RECEIVING WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Urban stormwater runoff has been recognized as a potential major contributor of pollution to receiving waters. However the projected high costs of control have prompted an examination of the extent to which these impacts have been documented. A nationwide search was conducted for case studies demonstrating a cause-effect linkage between urban runoff and impairment of beneficial uses in receiving waters. The results indicate that numerous definitions of “impacts” are being used and that few substantive data exist to support many of these allegations. Results of a preliminary impact assessment are presented for the 248 urbanized areas of the United States. Then, the results of more recent efforts to assess these impacts in several case studies are described. This assessment demonstrates the critical need for additional short-term and long-term sampling programs.     

USING LANDSAT DATA TO CLASSIFY LAND USE FOR ASSESSING THE BASINWIDE RUNOFF INDEX1

Remote sensing data in the form of Landsat computer compatible tapes (CCT) was used to determine land use and land cover as an aid in hydrologic studies that were used to estimated a basinwide runoff index. With the use of the General Electric Image 100 multispectral image processing system in conjunction with the Earth Resources Laboratory Application Software (ELAS), CCT's on February 9, 1976, were analyzed by spectral differences to determine unique land use conditions within the Econlockhatchee (Econ) River Basin, Florida. The result showed that the Landsat data can be successfully used to monitor the USGS land use Level 1. An advantage of using the Landsat data for land use classification is that new data are periodically available for updating the land use information. The Soil Conservation Service curve number was used to establish a basinwide runoff index which includes a prime variable of land use changes with the time. The basinwide runoff index in 1972 (with USGS 1972 Land Use maps) was similar to the one in 1976 (with Landsat data dated February 9, 1976). This implies that the runoff from the entire Econ Basin was not noticeably changed during the period of 1972 and 1976.     

SIMULATION OF THE EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASIN STREAMFLOW1

ABSTRACT: The hydrologic modeling of streamflow in the Waterford River Basin has been conducted as part of comprehensive investigations of the effects of urbanization on water resources in the basin. Using a detailed input data base, continuous simulation of streamflow in the study area has been done by means of the HSPF model, which has been calibrated for the existing conditions and then applied to several future land use scenarios. The basin climate and geology contribute to high conversion of precipitation into streamflow under the existing conditions. Consequently, future urban development in the study basin should not increase the annual streamflow, but would contribute to increases in peak flows and the incidence of flooding because of the increased speed of runoff. If the impervious area in the basin is doubled, the peak flows may increase by about 20 percent.     

VERIFICATION AND APPLICATION OF REGIONAL EQUATIONS FOR THE STORAGE FUNCTION RUNOFF MODEL1

The storage function model is a nonlinear rainfall-runoff model that has been developed for and applied to flood runoff analysis in Japan. This paper extends the model applicability by developing practical equations for estimating model parameters which are appropriate on a regional basis, i.e., so-called regional equations. Previously, the parameters were computed from historical data for a specific basin or from relationships that do not account for land use and topography. To develop the regionalized equations, model parameters were identified for 91 flood events from 22 watersheds in Japan by applying a mathematical optimization technique. Results from 39 of these events were statistically compared and regional relationships were determined as a function of land use, basin area and rainfall intensity. The utility of the estimated equations were tested by computing runoff hydrographs for lumped basins. The estimated parameters were also applied in a distributed watershed model formulation. Both applications showed acceptable results that validate the use of the regionalized relationships.     

RUNOFF POLLUTION FROM MULTIPLE FAMILY HOUSING1

ABSTRACT: Increasingly, residential development in urbanizing areas is accomplished by large housing projects, composed of clusters of townhouses or garden partments. It is hypothesized that the runoff from such developments should carry more pollution than that from the same number of housing units on separate plots, because the runoff is conveyed directly to drainage channels rather than being drained across lawns and gardens, which may absorb part of the pollutants. In order to evaluate this effect, storm event data were obtained from a planned unit development near Hightstown, N. J., using samples taken every 10 minutes throughout the storm at two different storm sewers. Results show heavy metals pollution about what had been anticipated, in accordance with the hypothesis given above, and BOD ammonia and phosphates higher than predicted. The results are significant for areawide water quality planning in metropolitan areas, where projections of future pollution loadings depends upon the land use.     

MODELED IMPACTS OF DEVELOPMENT TYPE ON RUNOFF VOLUME AND INFILTRATION PERFORMANCE1

ABSTRACT: Development type has emerged as an important focal point for addressing a wide range of social, cultural, and environmental concerns related to urban growth. Low impact development techniques that rely heavily on infiltration practices are increasingly being used to manage storm water. In this study, four development types (conventional curvilinear, urban cluster, coving, and new urbanism) were modeled both with and without infiltration practices to determine their relative effects on urban runoff. Modeling was performed with a modified version of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) runoff method that enables evaluation of infiltration practices. Model results indicate that urban cluster developments produce the smallest volume of runoff due to the large portion of land kept in a natural condition. Infiltration practices are most effective for small storms and in developments with Hydrologic Group A soils. Significant reductions in runoff can be achieved in all four development types if infiltration practices treat many impervious surfaces. As more infiltration practices are implemented, the differences in runoff among development types diminish. With a strategic combination of site layout and infiltration design, any development type can reduce hydrologic impacts, allowing developers to consider other factors, such as convenience, marketability, community needs, and aesthetics.     

STREAM-CHANNEL INCISION FOLLOWING DRAINAGE-BASIN URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: Urbanization of a drainage basin results in pervasive hydrologic changes that in turn initiate long-term changes in stream channels. Increases in peak discharges and in durations of high flows result in either quasi-equilibrium channel expansion, where cross-section area increases in near-proportion to the discharge increase, or catastrophic channel incision, where changes occur far out of proportion to the discharge increases that initiated them. Field data and hydrologic modeling of rapidly urbanizing basins in King County, Washington, define conditions of flow, topography, geology, and channel roughness that identify streams susceptible to incision. Channel slope and geologic material are particularly critical; thus simple map overlays, nearly irrespective of contributing drainage area, provide a valuable planning tool for identification of susceptible terrain. Where such conditions exist, basal shear stress provides a quantifiable parameter for predicting likely problems, although knickpoints are typical in such settings and confound simple calculation of sediment-transport rates. Where urbanization proceeds in such areas, effective mitigation of the incision hazards requires a degree of stormwater control far in excess of standards typically applied to present development activity.     

EFFECT OF URBANIZATION ON ALTERNATIVE FLOOD CONTROL STRATEGIES1

ABSTRACT: The effect of urbanization on alternative flood control strategies was investigated for a large developing watershed in Texas. Urban and rural areas were modeled separately using a geographically-referenced data base and the U.S. Corps of Engineers HEC-1 and HEC-2 programs, and results yielded a double-peaked hydrograph. Hydrograph input parameters were modified to predict the effects of a wide range of management alternatives including on-site storage, reservoirs, channelization, and development controls. Results indicated a combination of alternatives is required to protect existing and future developments.     

EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION ON BASE FLOW OF SELECTED SOUTH-SHORE STREAMS,LONG ISLAND,NEW YORK1

ABSTRACT: Hydrograph analysis of six streams on the south shore of Long Island indicates that eastward urbanization during the last three decades has significantly reduced base flow to streams. Before urbanization, roughly 95 percent of total annual stream flow on Long Island was base flow. In urbanized southwestern Nassau County, storm water sewerage, increased impervious surface area, and sanitary sewerage have reduced base flow to 20 percent of total stream flow. In an adjacent urbanized but unsewered area in southeastern Nassau County, base flow has decreased to 84 percent of total annual stream flow. In contrast, base flow in two streams in rural areas has remained virtually constant, averaging roughly 95 percent of total annual flow throughout the 1955-70 study period. Double-mass curve analysis of base flow as a percentage of total annual stream flow indicates that (1) changes in stream flow characteristics began in the early 1960's in the sewered area and in the late 1960's in the later urbanized, unsewered area, and (2) a new equilibrium has been established between the streams in the sewered area and the new hydrologic characteristics of their urbanized drainage basins.     

EFFECTS OF STORM PATTERNS ON RUNOFF HYDROGRAPHS1

ABSTRACT: As an alternative to the conventional single-peak design storms commonly used in hydrologic practice, a large number of Southeastern Pennsylvania storm events were selected from hourly U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) records, and their temporal distributions were analyzed. From these recorded events, design storms of a typical distribution were developed for storm durations between 6 and 18 hours. All of these generated design storms have two or more peaks. The conventional single peak as well as the “typical” multi-peak storms were then applied to a simulated watershed. It was found that the multi-peak storms consistently produced more dispersed hydrographs with lower runoff peaks than the conventional single peak storms.     

URBANIZATION IMPACT ON WATER QUALITY DURING A FLOOD IN SMALL WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: The impact of various urban land uses on water flow and quality in streams is being studied by monitoring small streams in the Milwaukee urban area. This paper compares the responses of an urban watershed and an agricultural watershed to an autumn rainfall of 2.2 cm. Flow from the urban basin showed a substantially greater response to the rain than that from the rural. Dilution, resulting from the greater quantities of surface runoff in the urban watershed, caused lower concentrations of sodium, chloride, calcium, magnesium, bicarbonate and total dissolved solids in the urban stream. The total quantity of these materials removed per unit drainage area of the urban basin was much greater, however. Road salt was still among the dominant dissolved materials in the urban water chemistry seven months after the last road salting. Sodium was apparently being released from adsorption by clays in the urban basin. Suspended sediment concentrations and total loads were higher in the urban stream.     

EFFECTS OF THE TOPOGRAPHIC INDEX DISTRIBUTION ON PREDICTED RUNOFF USING GRASS1

ABSTRACT: The effects of digital elevation model resolutions and contour lengths on the distribution of the topographic index, a fundamental parameter for the hydrologic model, TOPMODEL, and their influence on the predicted peak flows are investigated in this paper. A small agricultural catchment (3.38 km²) is used to determine the catchment response modeled by TOPMODEL for three rainfall events.     

EFFECTS OF SLUDGE AND CHEMICAL FERTILIZER APPLICATION ON RUNOFF WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Simulated rainfall was used on experimental field plots to compare the effect of chemical fertilizer and sludge application on sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus in runoff from no-till and conventional tillage systems. Chemical fertilizer application under the no-till system resulted in the least amount of total N and P in surface runoff. However, sludge application under the no-till system resulted in the least amount of NO₃-N and sediment in surface runoff. The worst water quality scenarios were observed when either sludge or chemical fertilizer were surface-applied under a conventional tillage system. Nitrogen losses from the conventional tillage system were minimized when sludge was incorporated into the soil. However, phosphorus and sediment yield from such a system were significantly higher when compared to phosphorus and sediment yield from the no-till system. The results from this study indicate that the use of sludge on agricultural land under a no-till system can be a viable alternative to chemical fertilizer for nitrogen and phosphorus control in runoff. A more cautious approach is recommended when the sludge is incorporated into the soil in a conventional tillage system because of potential for high sediment and phosphorus yield in surface runoff.