Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow

ABSTRACT

The conventional abrupt change-based assessments of climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow require the existence of change point(s) and stationarity assumption. However, hydrological conditions may not change abruptly at a certain time, but rather evolve gradually over a period. We propose a trend-based time-varying approach that does not require these prerequisites to assess the climate- and human-induced impacts on hydrological conditions in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, which can be applied in other basins. The trend-based time-varying approach detects human activities exert a significant seasonal regulation on streamflow (i.e. 113% of the decreases in the wet season and 93% of the increases in the dry season) and 101% of the reductions in flood peaks in the East River Basin, the sub-basin with the highest ratio of total reservoir storage capacity to river discharge in the PRB. Climate change contributes to 77% of the increases in flood peaks in the West River Basin, a large sub-basin with lower flood control levels.     

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Catalonia,Spain

Abstract

Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in northeastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future streamflows. The largest reduction (34%) in mean streamflows (for 2076–2100) is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (25% of mean value for 2076–2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in streamflow, of 50% and 30%, respectively. Thus, ecological flows in the study area might be noticeably influenced by climate change, especially in the headwaters of the wet catchments.     

水文巡测方法与水量平衡计算洱海水资源量对比分析

根据洱海流域1998、2004-2006年入湖、出湖水量监测成果,通过实测流量、降水量、蒸发量对入湖、出湖水量进行对比计算,结果发现,应用水文巡测方法与水量平衡方法计算出的2004-2006年洱海水资源量绝对误差最大值为0.2427×108m3,相对误差为4.8%,5%,说明两种方均可行.分析水量平衡方法的误差来源是枯期受湖面蒸发和农业提水灌溉的影响,提高洱海水资源量计算精度所需解决的问题是提高湖面蒸发量观测精度和还原水量计算精度.分析水文巡测方法的误差来源主要是巡测的监测断面距入湖口有一定距离,主要以面积比拟与降水修正进行计算,以及点据数量较少.针对两种方法的优缺点,提出四种措施:加强环洱海水量监测能力建设;加强洱海水面蒸发观测手段和方法;加强环湖生产生活用水的监督性监测;加强入湖河流水质水量并重监测与分析,以期更好地为洱海水环境、水资源保护和出入湖水量预测分析提供更准确的科学技术支撑.     

Threshold level approach for streamflow drought analysis in the Central Andes of Argentina: a climatological assessment

A streamflow drought climatology was developed over the Central Andes of Argentina, a semi-arid region highly vulnerable to climatic variations, based on the analysis of daily historical streamflow records. A threshold level approach was applied on a daily basis for three different severity levels in order to depict the main characteristics of droughts – number of drought events, mean duration and mean severity – over the period 1957–2014. Based on three annual indices that summarize the frequency of drought events, their duration and severity, we identified the main regional dry periods and the main modes of variability through an empirical decomposition. These modes are linked to La Niña conditions on inter-annual time scales and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation for the decadal variations, showing the influence of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the development of streamflow drought conditions and its relevance for potential predictability of hydroclimatic variations over the region.     

Assessing the impacts of reservoir operation on downstream water diversions using a simplified flow model

ABSTRACT

The operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) affects the evolution of the interactions between the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake in China and water diversions from the river, which are essential to water resources management in this large river–lake system. Due to the lack of up-to-date and detailed channel topographic/bathymetric data, a simplified flow model based on rating curves was developed to simulate discharges in the river system, and to further quantify and differentiate the contributions of river erosion and flow regulation of the TGR at a seasonal scale. The results indicate that the effect of channel alteration counteracts the effect of reservoir regulation in the high-flow periods. The impacts of TGR regulation on water diversions for both pre- and post-flood seasons were significant, but no obvious changes in the discharge diversion ratios were observed on an annual time scale.     

Simulating the impacts of land-use and climate change on water resource availability for a large south Indian catchment

Abstract

A monthly rainfall-runoff model was calibrated for a large tropical catchment in southern India. Various land-use and climatic change scenarios were tested to assess their effects on mean annual runoff and assured water yield at the Bhavanisagar Reservoir in Tamil Nadu, India. The largest increase in runoff (19%) came from converting forest and savanna (the indigenous control scenario) to agriculture. Mean annual runoff decreased by 35% after conversion to commercial forest and 6% after partial conversion to tea plantations. The predicted climate scenarios of reduced dry season rainfall decreased the annual runoff by 5% while enhanced annual rainfall caused a 17% increase in runoff. Even if land-use and climate changes had relatively large effects on runoff, the changes in reservoir yield which can be assured every year, were often less severe. This was probably due to the buffering effect of the reservoir and variation in the mean annual runoff.     

Climate changes and their impacts on water resources in semiarid regions: a case study of the Wei River basin,China

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activity on the hydrological processes in river basins is important for maintaining ecosystem integrity and sustaining local economic development. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate variability and human activity on mean annual flow in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and wavelet transform were applied to detect the variations of hydrometeorological variables in the semiarid Wei River basin in the northwestern China. The identifications were based on streamflow records from 1958 to 2008 at four hydrological stations as well as precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data from 21 climate stations. A simple method based on Budyko curve was used to evaluate potential impacts of climate change and human activities on mean annual flow. The results show that annual streamflow decreased because of the reduced precipitation and increased PET at most stations. Both annual and seasonal precipitation and PET demonstrated mixed trends of decreasing and increasing, although significant trends (P < 0.05) were consistently detected in spring and autumn at most stations. Significant periodicities of 0.5 and 1 year (P < 0.05) were examined in all the time series. The spectrum of streamflow at the Huaxian station shows insignificant annual cycle during 1971–1975, 1986–1993 and 1996–2008, which is probably resulted from human activities. Climate variability greatly affected water resources in the Beiluo River, whereas human activities (including soil and water conservation, irrigation, reservoirs construction, etc.) accounted more for the changes of streamflow in the area near the Huaxian station during different periods. The results from this article can be used as a reference for water resources planning and management in the semiarid Wei River basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Challenge of vegetation greening on water resources sustainability: Insights from a modeling‐based analysis in Northwest China

Forest restoration policies are often implemented without the assessment of their full environmental impact. In this study, we investigated the challenges of vegetation greening resulted from forest restoration on water resource sustainability, using a model‐based simulation in northwestern China. Four different vegetation scenarios and 25 future climate scenarios were employed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. Results suggest that (a) the mean annual evapotranspiration changes from only 7.2% in the barren case to 100% in the forest case; however, it produced a 35.2% reduction in average annual streamflow and a 157% increase in soil water storage. The upstream vegetation greening caused the enhancement of water retention, while also creating great challenges for future downstream water resource sustainability; (b) seasonal effect was significant in that 100% forest case increased evapotranspiration (+40%) but it also reduced the streamflow (?73%) compared to the barren case in growing season, which may exacerbate spring and summer drought; (c) changes of evapotranspiration and streamflow were only 0.3% and ?0.9% at T + 3.9 °C when compared to the historic scenario in barren cases, while for all forest cases, variations were 3% and ?21.8%, respectively; (d) vegetation greening induced more remarkable changes in hydrological components than those resulting from climate change. Our “what if” research provides new insights for promoting sustainable management of water resources and ecosystems in mountainous water source areas.     

Perturbation study of climate change impacts in a snow‐fed river basin

A physically based distributed hydrological model developed at the University of Yamanashi based on block‐wise use of TOPMODEL and the Muskingum–Cunge method (YHyM/BTOPMC), integrated with a simple degree‐day–based snow accumulation/melt sub‐model, was applied to evaluate hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions in the snow‐fed Kali Gandaki River Basin (KGRB) in Western Nepal. Rainy season precipitation (June to September) in the basin takes up about 80% of the annual precipitation, and dry season runoff is largely contributed by snowmelt. Climate change is likely to increase the probability of extreme events and problems related to water availability. Therefore, the study aimed to simulate runoff pattern under changing climatic conditions, which will be helpful in the management of water resources in the basin. Public domain global data were widely used in this study. The model was calibrated and validated with an acceptable degree of accuracy. The results predicted that the annual average discharge will increase by 2.4%, 3.7%, and 5.7% when temperature increases by 1, 2, and 3 °C compared with the reference scenario. Similarly, maximum, minimum, and seasonal discharges in the monsoon and pre‐monsoon seasons will also increase with rising temperature. Snowmelt runoff is found sensitive to temperature changes in the KGRB. Increasing temperature will cause a faster snowmelt, but precipitation will increase the snowpack and also shed a positive effect on the total annual and monsoonal discharge. For the combined scenarios of increasing temperature and precipitation, the annual average discharge will increase. In contrast, discharge during the increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation will tend to decrease. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

土地利用结构与景观格局对鄱阳湖流域赣江水质的影响

于2015年1月和7月采集赣江干流及支流34个采样点水样,测定电导率、水化学离子、无机氮等水质指标.利用赣江流域2014年30 m分辨率的土地利用数据,以流域景观类型占比表征土地利用结构,景观指数表征景观格局;采用Pearson相关分析、Bioenv分析、Mantle检验与方差分解等方法分析流域土地利用结构与景观格局对赣江水质的影响.结果表明:上游Cl^-、Na⁺浓度最高,中游电导率、Cl^-、Na⁺、K⁺、Ca²⁺等水质指标最低,下游电导率、HCO₃^-、SO₄^2-、Mg²⁺、Ca²⁺、NO₃^--N等水质指标最高.居民建设用地是对水质影响最显著的单一土地利用类型.林地、水田与居民建设用地是对水质影响最显著的土地利用类型组合.平均最近邻体指数是对水质影响最显著的单一景观指数,斑块个数、斑块...     

An isotopic investigation of a near-surface groundwater system

ABSTRACT

The distribution of environmental tritium, deuterium and oxygen-18 in the unsaturated zone and the underlying sandy phreatic aquifer was studied throughout 1981 in an area of high pine forests in the Rhine valley near Heidelberg. The observed vertical distribution of isotopes in the unsaturated zone can be satisfactorily explained by the combined use of a multi-cell model for moisture transport and an evapotranspiration model. The distribution in the underlying aquifer of the tracer input at the water table obtained using this method is found by replacing the total vertical diffusion coefficient in the diffusion equation with the dispersion coefficient. In this way observed tritium profiles are satisfactorily simulated for the period 1966–1981. The stable isotope profile in the unsaturated zone however remains largely unexplained due to inadequate data on the stable isotope content of precipitation over the investigated area.     

Study on consumption efficiency of soil water resources in the Yellow River Basin based on regional ET structure

Based on the regional water resources character, the concept of soil water resources is first redefined, and then associated with their transfer relationship in the hydrological cycle, Evapotranspiration (ET)-based consumption structure and consumption efficiency of soil water resources are analyzed. According to ET 's function in productivity, the consumption efficiency of soil water resources is di- vided into three classes: high efficient consumption from vegetation transpiration, low efficient con- sumption from soil evaporation among plants with high vegetation coverage and inefficient consump- tion from soil evaporation among plants with low vegetation coverage and bare soil evaporation. The high efficient and low efficient consumption were further classified as productive consumption. The ineffi- cient consumption is considered non-productive consumption because it is significant in the whole hydrological cycle process. Finally, according to these categories, and employing a WEP-L dis- tributed hydrological model, this paper analyzes the consumption efficiency of soil water resources in the Yel- low River Basin. The results show that there are 2078.89×108 m3 soil water resources in the whole basin. From the viewpoint of consumption structure, the soil water resources are comprised of 381.89×108 m3 transpiration consumption from vegetation and 1697.09×108 m3 evaporation consumption from soil among plants and bare soil. From the viewpoint of consumption efficiency, soil water re- sources are composed of 920.11×108 m3 efficient consumption and 1158.86×108 m3 of inefficient con- sumption. High efficient consumption accounts for 41.5 percent of the total efficient consumption of the whole basin, low efficient for 58.5 percent. Furthermore, consumption efficiency varies by region. Compared with ET from different land use conditions, the whole basin appears to follow the trend of having the greatest proportion of consumption as inefficient consumption, followed by low efficient consumption, and then the least proportion as high efficient consumption. The amount of inefficient consumption in some regions with vegetation is less than in other regions without vegetation. The amount of inefficient consumption in grasslands is much greater than in forestlands. However, the proportion of low efficient consumption is the greatest in crop fields. The amount of high efficient con- sumption in grasslands and forelands is similar to the corresponding low efficient consumption. However, the low efficient consumption in grasslands is larger than in the forelands. Therefore, when adjusting the utilization efficiency of soil water resources, vegetation coverage and plant structure should be modulated in terms of the principle of decreasing inefficient consumption, improving low efficiency ET and increasing high efficiency ET according to area character.     

Variability of water levels and impacts of streamflow changes and human activity within the Pearl River Delta,China

Abstract

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) is a complicated criss-cross river network. The booming economy and intensifying human activity have greatly altered the natural water levels, which threatens regional sustainable development. The Mann-Kendall trend test and the kriging interpolation method were used to detect the spatial and temporal patterns in the trends of extreme high/low water levels related to different magnitudes of streamflow, in order to explore the impacts of hydrological processes on the water-level changes throughout the PRD. The results indicate that: (a) streamflow changes at the Sanshui and Makou stations exhibit different characteristics. No significant trend can be identified in the streamflow changes at Makou station; however, the streamflow at Sanshui station shows a significant increasing trend, especially in low-flow periods. The decreasing Makou/Sanshui streamflow ratio exerts tremendous impacts on the water-level changes in the hinterland of the PRD region. (b) Extreme high/low water levels exhibit similar changing patterns. The extreme high/low water levels in the high/normal flow periods are decreasing in both the upper PRD and the hinterland of the PRD region. Increasing extreme high/low water levels in low-flow periods can be identified in the hinterland of the PRD region. The coastal regions are characterized by increasing extreme high/low water levels. (c) Extreme high/low water levels for high/normal flow periods in the hinterland of the PRD are heavily impacted by topographic changes due to in-channel dredging. Increasing extreme high/low water levels along the coastal regions are mainly backwater effects caused by serious siltation and rising sea level. This study has scientific and practical merits in regional fluvial management and mitigation of natural hazards.

Citation Zhang, Q., Xu, C.-Y. & Chen, Y. D. (2010) Variability of water levels and impacts from streamflow changes and human activity within the Pearl River Delta, China. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 512–525.     

Response of the hydrological regime of the Yellow River to the changing monsoon intensity and human activity

Abstract

In the past 50 years, influenced by global climate change, the East Asian summer monsoon intensity (SMI) changed significantly, leading to a response by the water cycle of the Yellow River basin. The variation in SMI has three stages: (1) 1951–1963, SMI increased; (2) 1963–1965, SMI declined sharply, a feature that may be regarded as an abrupt change; and (3) 1965–2000, SMI remained at low levels and showed a tendency to decline slowly. The decreased SMI led to a reduction in water vapour transfer from the ocean to the Yellow River basin, and thus precipitation decreased and the natural river runoff of the Yellow River also decreased. Due to the increase in population and therefore in irrigated land area, the ratio of net water diversion to natural river runoff increased continuously. Comparison of the ratio of net water diversion to natural river runoff before and after the abrupt change in SMI indicates some discontinuity in the response of the man-induced lateral branch of the water cycle to the abrupt change in SMI. The frequently occurring flow desiccation in the lower Yellow River can be regarded as a response of the water cycle system to the decreasing summer monsoon intensity and increasing population. When the ratio of net water diversion exceeded the ratio of natural runoff of the low-flow season to the annual total natural runoff, flow desiccation in the lower Yellow River would occur. When the ratio of net water diversion is 0.3 larger than the ratio of the natural runoff of the low-flow season to the annual total natural runoff, an abrupt increase in the number of flow desiccation events is likely to occur.     

Surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow from a mesoscale watershed in complex mountain terrain

An understanding of surface and subsurface water contributions to streamflow is essential for accurate predictions of water supply from mountain watersheds that often serve as water towers for downstream communities. As such, this study used the end‐member mixing analysis technique to investigate source water contributions and hydrologic flow paths of the 264 km² Boulder Creek Watershed, which drains the Colorado Front Range, USA. Four conservative hydrochemical tracers were used to describe this watershed as a 3 end‐member system, and tracer concentration reconstruction suggested that the application of end‐member mixing analysis was robust. On average from 2009 to 2011, snowmelt and rainwater from the subalpine zone and groundwater sampled from the upper montane zone contributed 54%, 22%, and 24% of the annual streamflow, respectively. These values demonstrate increased rainwater and decreased snow water contributions to streamflow relative to area‐weighted mean values derived from previous work at the headwater scale. Young water (2.3 ± 0.8 months) fractions of streamflow decreased from 18–22% in the alpine catchment to 8–10% in the lower elevation catchments and the watershed outlet with implications for subsurface storage and hydrological connectivity. These results contribute to a process‐based understanding of the seasonal source water composition of a mesoscale watershed that can be used to extrapolate headwater streamflow generation predictions to larger spatial scales.     

Suitability of satellite-based hydro-climate variables and machine learning for streamflow modeling at various scale watersheds

ABSTRACT

Streamflow modeling is essential to investigate processes in the hydrologic cycle and important for water resource management application. However, in-situ hydrologic data paucity, because of various factors such as economic, political, instrument malfunctioning, and poor spatial distribution, makes the modeling process challenging. To overcome this limitation, we introduced a satellite remote sensing-based machine learning approach – boosted regression tree (BRT) – that integrates spatial land surface and climate variables that describe the sub-units, and applied it in three variable size watersheds in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB), USA. The model simulation results were tested using an independent dataset and showed Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.80, 0.76, and 0.69 for the UMRB, Illinois River Watershed, and Raccoon River Watershed, respectively. In addition, we compared the performance of the machine learning models with existing process-based modeling results. Overall performance is comparable with the process-based approaches, but with significantly less modeling effort and resources.     

Rainfall trend and its implications for water resource management within the Yarra River catchment,Australia

Rainfall is the key climatic variable that governs the regional hydrologic cycle and availability of water resources. Recent studies have analysed the changes in rainfall patterns at global as well as regional scales in Australia. Recent studies have also suggested that any analysis of hydroclimatic variables should be performed at the local scale rather than at a large or global scale because the trends and their effects may be different from one location to the other. Because no studies were found specific to the Yarra River catchment, which is an important catchment in Victoria, Australia, this study performs a spatiotemporal trend analysis on long‐term rainfall records at 15 measuring stations within the catchment. The Mann–Kendall test was used to detect trends, and Sen's slope estimator was used to calculate the slopes in both monthly and annual rainfall. Moreover, a cumulative summation technique was used to identify the trend beginning year, and prewhitening criteria were tested to check for autocorrelation in the data. The results showed that the monthly rainfall has generally decreasing trends except in January and June. Significant decreasing rainfall trends were observed in May (among the autumn months of March, April and May) at most stations and also in some other months at several stations. A decreasing trend was also observed in the annual rainfall at all stations. This study indicates that there has been a consistent reduction in rainfall over the catchment, both spatially and temporally over the past 50 years, which will have important implications for the future management of water resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological analysis of the Upper Tiber River Basin,Central Italy: a watershed modelling approach

The quantification of the various components of hydrological processes in a watershed remains a challenging topic as the hydrological system is altered by internal and external drivers. Watershed models have become essential tools to understand the behaviour of a catchment under dynamic processes. In this study, a physically based watershed model called Soil Water Assessment Tool was used to understand the hydrologic behaviour of the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy. The model was successfully calibrated and validated using observed weather and flow data for the period of 1963–1970 and 1971–1978, respectively. Eighteen parameters were evaluated, and the model showed high relative sensitivity to groundwater flow parameters than the surface flow parameters. An analysis of annual hydrological water balance was performed for the entire upper Tiber watershed and selected subbasins. The overall behaviour of the watershed was represented by three categories of parameters governing surface flow, subsurface flow and whole basin response. The base flow contribution has shown that 60% of the streamflow is from shallow aquifer in the subbasins. The model evaluation statistics that evaluate the agreement between the simulated and the observed streamflow at the outlet of a watershed and other three different subbasins has shown a coefficient of determination (R²) from 0.68 to 0.81 and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) between 0.51 and 0.8 for the validation period. The components of the hydrologic cycle showed variation for dry and wet periods within the watershed for the same parameter sets. On the basis of the calibrated parameters, the model can be used for the prediction of the impact of climate and land use changes and water resources planning and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tracing water resources flows by complementary use of hydrological and water accounting models

Historically, there has been a dispute over water allocation between users and policymakers in Iran's Zayandeh-Roud Basin (ZRB). In this study, we used the “System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water” (SEEAW) framework in combination with the hydrologic model “Soil and Water Assessment Tool” (SWAT) to achieve the water balance in ZRB. We used SEEAW to combine a wide range of water-related statistics across stakeholders and SWAT to evaluate the unknown agricultural water use. The SWAT model is calibrated based on the stream flows and crop yields in the basin. The model assess the renewable water of the basin into two components, about 363 and 70 mm as green and blue water, respectively. Also results from the physical water supply and water use tables demonstrates that the agricultural sector uses 78% of the total renewable freshwater, followed by the residential, 16%, and the industrial sector, 6%. The flows of water from source to services in ZRB are traced based on the water supply and water use tables. The flow diagram shows that 8 MCM of industrial reused water was transferred to the agricultural sector, and 137 MCM and 18 MCM of water from the wastewater treatment plants to the agricultural and industrial sectors, respectively. Furthermore, the results show that the index of the basin dependence on groundwater resources is high (61%), the value of water stress is high (0.88) and the dependence of the basin on transboundary water resources is 30%. Therefore, this method is highly beneficial for achieving a conceptual water balance in disputed basins without enough agricultural water uses data.     

Simulating spatiotemporal variability of blue and green water resources availability with uncertainty analysis

Due to rapid socioeconomic development, continuous population growth and urbanization, the world is facing a severe shortage of fresh water, particularly in arid and semi‐arid regions. A lack of water will put pressure on agricultural production, water pollution, as well as eco‐environmental degradation. Traditional water resources assessment mainly focused on blue water, ignoring green water. Therefore, analysis of spatiotemporal distribution of blue and green water resources in arid and semi‐arid regions is of great significance for water resources planning and management, especially for harmonizing agricultural water use and eco‐environmental water requirements. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI‐2) to calibrate and validate the SWAT model based on river discharges in the Wei River, the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. Uncertainty analysis was also performed to quantify the blue and green water resources availability at different spatial scales. The results showed that most parts of the Wei River basin (WRB) experienced a decrease in blue water resources during the recent 50 years with a minimum value in the 1990s. The decrease is particularly significant in the most southern part of the WRB (the Guanzhong Plain), one of the most important grain production bases in China. Variations of green water flow and green water storage were relatively small both on spatial and temporal dimensions. This study provides strategic information for optimal utilization of water resources in arid and semi‐arid river basin. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.