Biofuel futures in road transport – A modeling analysis for Sweden

First and second generation biofuels are among few low-carbon alternatives for road transport that currently are commercially available or in an early commercialization phase. They are thus potential options for meeting climate targets in the medium term. For the case of Sweden, we investigate cost-efficient use of biofuels in road transport under system-wide CO₂ reduction targets to 2050, and the effects of implementation of targets for an almost fossil-free road transport sector to 2030. We apply the bottom-up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which covers the entire Swedish energy system including the transport sector. For CO₂ reductions of 80% to 2050 in the Swedish energy system as a whole, the results of the main scenario show an annual growth rate for road transport biofuels of about 6% from 2010 to 2050, with biofuels accounting for 78% of road transport final energy use in 2050. The preferred biofuel choices are methanol and biomethane. When introducing additional fossil fuel phase-out policies in road transport (−80% to 2030), a doubling of the growth rate to 2030 is required and system CO₂ abatement costs increases by 6% for the main scenario. Results imply that second generation biofuels, along with energy-efficient vehicle technologies such as plug-in hybrids, can be an important part of optimized system solutions meeting stringent medium-term climate targets.     

A model of managers’ preferences for location of freight facilities

The paper reviews the need for a better understanding of the factors which affect the location of freight facilities, such as depots, terminals, freight forwarding centres, distribution centres, etc. The development of an Elimination by Aspects (EBA) model to analyse such location decisions by the managers of freight firms is described. The results are shown to be comparable (perhaps even superior to) those obtained with a logit model. Conclusions are drawn with respect to both the use of the EBA model to analyse freight facility location preference, and the factors which affect such preference. Five factors were found to be significant: closeness to existing customers, closeness to arterial roads, availability of suitable sites, cost of truck fleet operation, and closeness to labor.     

Evaluating the risk of operational safety for dangerous goods in airfreights – A revised risk matrix based on fuzzy AHP

The purpose of this study is to assess the risk of operational safety for dangerous goods in airfreights. Based on the relevant literature, the risk factors (RFs) of operational safety were first investigated. A revised risk matrix based on fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) was then proposed to assess the risks of those RFs’ in operational safety. Finally, to validate the model, the airfreight operations of dangerous goods in Taiwan were empirically investigated. The results indicate the RFs with higher risk in shipper’s operations are inaccurate declaration, insufficient knowledge and insufficient packaging. For the results, theoretical and managerial implications are further discussed. The results can provide practical information for airfreight operators to improve the performance of safety management. Further, the revised risk matrix can provide methodological reference for risk assessment research.     

An empirical analysis of freight transport traffic modes in Brazil, 1996–2012

This paper analyses the performance of freight transportation modes in Brazil – namely air, water, rail and road – from February 1996 to August 2012 by investigating their long memory properties using fractional integration and autoregressive models on monthly tonnage data. Two important features are analysed: the degree of dependence of transportation traffic across time and its seasonal structure over the period. Furthermore, the stability of parameters across the sample period is investigated, incorporating potential structural breaks in the data, which describe discontinuity in freight transportation traffic. Some policy implications are derived.     

Does tourism degrade environmental quality? A comparative study of Eastern and Western European Union

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of tourism on economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Eastern and Western European Union (EU) countries by incorporating FDI and trade in the production and CO₂ emission functions. We apply panel econometric techniques which account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. The results of Westerlund panel cointegration test confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Results from long-run elasticities suggest that tourism stimulates economic growth in Eastern and Western EU countries. However, tourism increases CO₂ emissions in Eastern EU but decreases in Western EU. This indicates that tourism has an adverse effect on the environment in Eastern EU. Finally, short-run heterogeneous panel causality test results suggest that tourism causes CO₂ emissions in Eastern EU while economic growth and CO₂ emissions cause tourism in Western EU. Overall, our findings suggest that tourism plays an important role in accelerating economic growth; however, its role on CO₂ emissions largely depends on the adaptation of sustainable tourism policies and efficient management.     

Platooning for sustainable freight transportation: an adoptable practice in the near future?

ABSTRACT

Platooning is an emerging transportation practice that has the potential to solve the problems of the burgeoning transportation industry. A platoon is a group of vehicles, with vehicle to vehicle communication, that travel closely behind one another such that the platoon can accelerate, brake and cruise together. Platoons can improve road safety, be energy efficient and reduce costs. Its complete socio-economic benefits include congestion mitigation, smoother traffic flow, better lane usage and throughput, incentives for green logistics and driver safety. The long-term effect of platooning on road transportation, if extensively deployed, would be better organised traffic flow and efficient tracking of vehicles on the road ushering a multilevel positive impact on the industry. In this study, we attempt to answer the critical question of whether platooning is an adoptable practice in the near future and discuss an agenda to take platooning closer to implementation on the ground by highlighting the opportunities for future research. We also present a conceptual framework to help researchers, academicians, policy makers and practitioners for the adoption of platooning into the transportation industry.     

Consumers’ willingness to pay for alternative fuel vehicles: A comparative discrete choice analysis between the US and Japan

This paper conducts a comparative discrete choice analysis to estimate consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) on the basis of the same stated preference survey carried out in the US and Japan in 2012. We also carry out a comparative analysis across four US states. We find that on average US consumers are more sensitive to fuel cost reductions and alternative fuel station availability than are Japanese consumers. With regard to the comparative analysis across the four US states, consumers’ WTP for a fuel cost reduction in California is considerably greater than in the other three states. We use the estimates obtained in the discrete choice analysis to examine the EV/PHEV market shares under several scenarios. In a base case scenario with relatively realistic attribute levels, conventional gasoline vehicles still dominate both in the US and Japan. However, in an innovation scenario with a significant purchase price reduction, we observe a high penetration of alternative fuel vehicles both in the US and Japan. We illustrate the potential use of a discrete choice analysis for forward-looking policy analysis, with the future opportunity to compare its predictions against actual revealed choices. In this case, increased purchase price subsidies are likely to have a significant impact on the market shares of alternative fuel vehicles.     

Investigation of carriers’ ability to transfer toll increases: an empirical analysis of freight agents’ relative market power

Transportation - Design of effective freight policies requires a comprehensive understanding of freight agents’ interactions. A critical component of the interaction is the freight...     

Commuters’ willingness-to-pay for improvement of transfer facilities in and around metro stations – A case study in Kolkata

Although several cities in India are developing the metro system, there are lacunas associated with transfer facilities in and around metro stations. The present work aims to investigate the perception of commuters of Kolkata city, India in terms of their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improvement of transfer facilities. A stated preference survey instrument was designed to collect choice responses from metro commuters and the database was analysed by developing random parameter logit (RPL) models. The decomposition effects of various socioeconomic and trip characteristics on mean estimates were also investigated in random parameter logit models with heterogeneity. The work indicates significantly high WTP of metro commuters as compared to the average metro fare for improvement of various qualitative attributes of transfer facility such as ‘facility for level change’, ‘visual communication’, ‘pedestrian crossing’, and ‘pedestrian environment’. The WTP values are also found to vary across different groups of commuter formed on the basis of ‘trip purpose’, ‘monthly household income’, ‘station type’ and ‘metro fare’. ‘Work trip’ commuters are found to have higher WTP for improvement of access time, pedestrian environment and use of an escalator over the elevator. On the other hand, ‘high-income group’ commuters have shown higher WTP for improvement of access time, pedestrian crossing, and pedestrian environment. While ‘high fare group’ commuters have higher WTP for access time and pedestrian environment, heterogeneity is also observed in WTP for facility for level change, pedestrian crossing, and pedestrian environment across commuters using different ‘station type’ (underground, at-grade, and elevated). The findings from the study provide a basis for formulating policies for the improvement of transfer facilities in and around metro stations giving due attention to the preference of commuters having different socioeconomic and trip characteristics.     

Impacts of combining partial and general equilibrium modelling in freight transport analyses – a forest sector case study from Norway

Abstract

The forest sector in Norway is very transport intensive, accounting for approximately 14% of total domestic freight transport traffic on Norwegian roads. This paper presents an analysis linking a general equilibrium freight transport modelling tool with a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. The freight transport model predicts transport costs, modal split and transport patterns, and the results are treated as inputs to the forest sector model. The objective of the paper is to analyse the modelling effect of taking forest sector model effects back into the freight transport model and treated as new demand. Compared to a base scenario for the year 2020, we compare analyses with and without this new demand from the forest sector model back into the freight transport modelling tool.     

Comparison of road freight transport trends in Europe. Coupling and decoupling factors from an Input–Output structural decomposition analysis

Decoupling road freight transport from economic growth has been acknowledged by the European Union as a key means to improving sustainability. It is therefore important to identify both the coupling and decoupling drivers of road freight transport demand in order to determine possible factors that may contribute to reduce road transport in the future without curbing economic development. This research proposes an Input–Output (IO) structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to explain road freight transport in terms of a set of key factors that have strongly influenced road freight demand in recent decades in European countries—such as economic growth, economic structure and the evolution of road transport intensity (including improvements in both supply and transport systems). This methodological approach allows us to quantify and compare their contribution in different European countries to either increase or decrease road freight transport demand. The empirical basis for this analysis is a dataset of nine European countries which have IO tables and road transport data available from 2000 to 2007, comprising data on domestic production, imports and exports as well as tonne-kms for 11 types of commodity classes. The results show that, as a whole, aggregate road transport demand has grown—driven mainly by economic activity—but this growth has been strongly curbed in some countries by changes in road freight transport intensity and moderately by the dematerialization of the economy. International transport has been also proven to be a key factor driving road freight transport volumes. Moreover, the increased penetration of foreign operators in national haulage markets appears to have reinforced the final decoupling levels observed in some cases.     

A merging–giveway interaction model of cars in a merging section: a game theoretic analysis

In many past studies dealing with traffic phenomena in merging or weaving sections, only the influence of through traffic on the behavior of a merging car is considered in the analysis. It is, however, often seen that a through car, which runs on the most outside lane, takes a cooperative motion for the merging car called “giving way” by moving to the adjacent lane. That is, both the merging car and the through car affect one another. Because their influence is not independent from one another, it should be jointly treated in the analysis as “interaction”. This behavior is typical in merging sections, and is a dominant factor forming the traffic phenomena in a section of this type. This study develops a game theoretical model to describe the traffic behavior of a pair of merging and through cars, while explicitly considering the interaction between them. Both the merging and through cars attempt to take the best actions for themselves by forecasting the other’s action, respectively. Such a behavior is modeled as a two-person non-zero-sum non-cooperative game. Through a case study with data analysis of videotaped observation, the proposed model can be used to obtain an understanding of traffic behavior at on-ramp merging sections. ©     

Hierarchal assessment of noise pollution in urban areas – A case study

Noise pollution in urban areas has many harmful effects on the citizens. There are varieties of noise generation sources of which the traffic noise could be a major source. The point which is perhaps less noticed is that sound level is not the only parameter to indicate the extent and intensity of noise pollution. Situation of urban land uses, distribution of population centers and types of passages can deeply affect the concern on this environmental issue but not with a similar ratio. This article presents an overlaying technique to define noise prone areas using all different factors involved. A case study was carried out in the District 14 of Tehran Metropolitan City where there are busy streets and highways. For this purpose, the share of each criterion in noise pollution intensity was determined using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Afterwards, the map layers were overlaid based upon the relative importance of the criteria to get the final map on which the noise prone areas are specified. The developed method could be used as a tool for indirect estimation of noise pollution by which instead of direct measurement of the equivalent sound level, it would be possible to predict noise susceptible areas considering the most important influential factors.     

Introducing Willingness‐to‐pay for Noise Changes into Transport Appraisal: An Application of Benefit Transfer

Abstract

Numerous research studies have elicited willingness‐to‐pay values for transport‐related noise. However, in many industrialized countries including the UK, noise costs and benefits are still not incorporated into appraisals for most transport projects and policy changes. This paper describes the actions recently taken in the UK to address this issue, comprising: primary research based on the city of Birmingham; an international review of willingness‐to‐pay evidence; the development of values using benefit transfers over time and locations; and integration with appraisal methods. Amongst the main findings are: that the willingness‐to‐pay estimates derived for the UK are broadly comparable with those used in appraisal elsewhere in Europe; that there is a case for a lower threshold at 45 dB(A)Leq,18h rather than the more conventional 55 dB(A); and that values per dB(A) increase with the noise level above this threshold. There are significant issues over the valuation of rail versus road noise, the neglect of non‐residential noise and the valuation of high noise levels in different countries. Conclusions are drawn regarding the feasibility of noise valuation based on benefit transfers in the UK and elsewhere, and future research needs in this field are discussed.     

A complex network perspective for characterizing urban travel demand patterns: graph theoretical analysis of large-scale origin–destination demand networks

Urban travel demand, consisting of thousands or millions of origin–destination trips, can be viewed as a large-scale weighted directed graph. The paper applies a complex network-motivated approach to understand and characterize urban travel demand patterns through analysis of statistical properties of origin–destination demand networks. We compare selected network characteristics of travel demand patterns in two cities, presenting a comparative network-theoretic analysis of Chicago and Melbourne. The proposed approach develops an interdisciplinary and quantitative framework to understand mobility characteristics in urban areas. The paper explores statistical properties of the complex weighted network of urban trips of the selected cities. We show that travel demand networks exhibit similar properties despite their differences in topography and urban structure. Results provide a quantitative characterization of the network structure of origin–destination demand in cities, suggesting that the underlying dynamical processes in travel demand networks are similar and evolved by the distribution of activities and interaction between places in cities.     

A time-series analysis of public transit ridership in Portland,Oregon, 1971–1982

This paper examines the factors affecting changes in transit ridership in Portland, Oregon, during the period 1971 through 1982. A time-series methodology is used to investigate the effects of service level, travel costs, and market size at the system, sector, and route levels. Transfer function and multiple time-series models are compared. Intervention analysis is used to determine the impact of 81 service-level changes and 5 fare changes. A comparison is made of the elasticities estimated for these changes with elasticities developed from other studies.     

Measuring the car ownership impact of free-floating car-sharing – A case study in Basel,Switzerland

Free-floating car-sharing schemes operate without fixed car-sharing stations, ahead reservations or return-trip requirements. Providing fast and convenient motorization, they attract both public transport users and (former) car-owners. Thus, their impact on individual travel behavior depends on the user type. Estimating the travel behavior impact of these systems therefore requires quantitative data. Using a two-wave survey approach (shortly after launch of the scheme plus one year later) including travel diaries, this research indicates that (due to their membership) 6% of the free-floating car-sharing customers reduce their private vehicle ownership. Moreover, the results suggest that free-floating car-sharing both complements and competes with station-based car-sharing.     

Energy consumption in China’s logistics industry: A decomposition analysis using the LMDI approach

The logistics industry plays a critical role in boosting China’s economic development, although at significant externality costs. Using the 1980–2010 data, we examine the historical evolution of energy consumption in China’s logistics industry. The logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was used to analyze the key factors that drove the chronicle changes in logistics energy consumption in China. Changes in energy consumption of China’s logistics industry are attributed to growth in logistics activity, modal shift in freight transportation, increases in transport intensity, and overall improvements in energy intensity: (1) China’s logistics industry enjoyed fast growth with an average annual growth rate of 9.65% from 1980 to 2010. Increase in logistics activity has been the major force driving up logistics energy consumption (accounting for 48.8% of logistics energy increase); (2) Logistics energy consumption increased by 22.91 times, averaging at 11.9% growth per year. Fuel consumption in highway transportation has become more dominant in logistics energy consumption; (3) While changes in logistics activities, transportation modes and transport intensity pushed up logistics energy consumptions, improvements in energy intensity helped significantly to curb the energy rise in China’s logistics industry.