A Qualitative Study of Hard Decision Making in Managing Global Software Development Teams

We empirically explored the implication of hard decisions in the context of the management of global software development (GSD) teams. We hypothesized and empirically tested our belief that hard decision making in conventional development projects is very similar to GSD and differences arise from the nature of the relationship and the ranking of issues. Findings from a Delphi study illustrated our approach and shed some light into the management of GSD teams.     

Decision Making and Management of Dynamic Risk

Managing dynamic environments often requires decision making under uncertainty and risk. Two types of uncertainty are involved: uncertainty about the state and the evolution of the situation, and ‘openness’ of the possible actions to face possible consequences. In an experimental study on risk management in dynamic situations, two contrasted ‘ecological’ scenarios – transposed from effective situations of emergency management – were compared in order to identify the impact of their ‘openness’ in the subjects’ strategies for decision making. The ‘Lost Child’ scenario presented qualitative and irreversible consequences (child’s death) and high uncertainty; it exerted high demands both in risk assessment (risk representation) and action elaboration and choice. A less open situation (‘Hydrocarbon Fire’) required a main choice between two contrasted actions, with quantitative computable consequences. The strategies of ‘experimental subjects’ (university students) and ‘operative subjects’ (professional fire-fighter officers) were compared in order to evaluate the ecological validity of experimental research in this field, from the point of view of the subjects themselves. The two scenarios appeared to be independent, so that quite different models of decision making have to be hypothesised, differing by the importance of assessing risk and defining possible actions on the one hand, and by the process of choice on the other. ‘Experimental’ subjects dramatically differed from ‘operative’ subjects when confronted with the same scenario, particularly for the less technical but more demanding scenario. It is hypothesised that three components might account for the effect of the situations and for the differences between and within groups of subjects: importance of situation assessment, spatial abilities, and global orientation of activity in managing dynamic risk.     

企业经营管理的信息系统和决策咨询

在企业管理中,用计算机作为辅助手段是不是值得?能不能带来新的经济效益?为了探讨这一问题,下面从我国企业管理现行的信息系统和决策两个方面的现状出发,探讨计算机用于企业管理的必要性及可能性.     

智能管理与决策课程教学方法探讨

以智能管理与决策课程研究生教学为讨论对象,以教学第一手素材为基础,为课程、课件与教学软件开发提供依据。教学内容从实际案例出发,教学形式以课堂教学、多媒体教学软件及网络教学等多种生动的形式展开,实践表明,教学效果很好。     

专家系统技术在多属性决策中的应用

文章介绍了如何把专家系统中的处理技术引入传统的ＭＡＤＭ，将方案的定性属性和决策者的偏好用谓词逻辑和产生式规则进行知识表达，并用定性推理和定量计算相结合的工作方式进行ＭＡＤＭ问题的求解，实现一个基于知识的多属性决策模型。     

Making Statistics Part of Decision Making in an Engineering Organization

This article reports our experiences deploying statistical methods at BAE Systems Network Systems (BAE NS), a software and systems development organization. We focus not on the methods' mathematical details but on the problem of deploying them to managers and practitioners. Of course, misunderstanding and misuse of these methods will interfere with their successful deployment, so some knowledge of statistical methods is required.     

并行工程模式下企业管理决策的几个问题及其求解

针对并行工程模式下企业管理决策的典型问题,建立一组以省时为优化目标的数学模型。这些模型能较好地表现并行工程哲理的并行性、约束性和协调性特征。讨论了模型的求解,并给出一个算例。     

Can You Handle the Headaches? Analyzing and Optimizing the Effectiveness of the Incident Management Process

Abstract

Recovering from incidents in a timely appropriate manner is vital to maintaining operational efficiency, controlling costs, and keeping users happy and productive. A key to quick recovery is having an incident management process in place. An analysis of the incident management process can offer insight into how effectively the process supports problem detection and isolation and systems restoration. An analysis of the incident management process can contribute to systems and application resilience, the capacity to keep failures from dramatically affecting users.     

综合集成与决策

在探索“从定性到定量的综合集成法”提出的动机与基本原理的基础上，讨论了综合集成与决策之间的关系，认为从定性到定量的综合集成体系的研究不能局限于决策与决策支持系统，而应将其视为科学创新的方法论．面对当前众多复杂的重大决策问题，应以综合集成理论作为决策研究的指导，建立综合集成型决策支持系统．     

Experience-Based Decision Making: A Satisficing Decision Tree Approach

This paper introduces a framework of experienced-based decision making as an extension of case-based decision making, a recently proposed alternative to expected utility theory. In experienced-based decision making, an agent faced with a new decision problem acts on the basis of experience gathered from previous problems in the past, either through predicting the utility of potential actions or through establishing a direct relationship between decision problems and appropriate actions. In the paper, a realization of the latter approach in the form of “satisficing” decision trees is proposed.     

Linguistic Discriminative Aggregation in Multicriteria Decision Making

Several new aggregation operators are proposed in the context of multicriteria decision making (MCDM) in the linguistic domain. The proposed operators first infer the discrimination index, based on the extent of variability in the various linguistic evaluations against a criterion. This value is then utilized in the actual aggregation step to discriminate among the alternatives. Besides, the proposed operators also take into account the a priori weights associated with the criteria. The proposed concepts are illustrated through an example in group MCDM.     

一类大系统的决策方法

本文中利用一般系统理论讨论了分散、集中和协调系统的大系统模型。对于一种简化了的案例给出了为确定最优策略的方程组。对多级多段随机控制系统也进行了讨论。结合中国当前的具体情况给出了一个数字例子。     

基于数据的决策方法综述

现代的决策问题与传统环境相比具有两个特点, 首先是系统自动化水平的提高带来的大量原始数据, 另外则是由于现实决策问题的复杂性和不确定性导致的机理模型无法准确建立. 面对这样的特点, 传统的基于机理模型的决策方法无法得到有效应用, 于是, 大量的研究工作围绕基于数据的决策方法展开. 本文根据决策问题的性质从三个方面综述了当前被普遍关注和应用的基于数据的决策方法: 分类方法、决策分析方法和优化方法, 针对各种具体方法, 总结了该方法的特征、发展过程以及前景.     

EMERGE-A Data-Driven Medical Decision Making Aid

EMERGE is an expert system designed as a medical decision making aid. It is machine-independent, and is implemented in standard Pascal. It has modest memory requirements, and can operate on a microcomputer. EMERGE is rule-based, and its initial application is the analysis of chest pain in the emergency room. The knowledge base is maintained separately from the consultation program. Thus the application area can be changed without any modification to the software. This paper describes the control structures and rule searching procedures used in EMERGE.     

代价敏感的序贯三支决策方法

在现实决策中,代价敏感问题是影响人类决策的重要因素之一,许多研究者致力于降低决策的代价。现阶段,在粗糙集领域中,研究者多基于DTRS模型且仅考虑某一种代价,不够全面。针对以上问题,利用序贯三支决策模型对两种代价的敏感性,通过多层次粒结构可以有效降低决策总代价,且能够更好地模拟人类动态渐进的决策过程。在序贯三支决策模型的基础上,构造了多层次粒结构;将各个属性的测试代价与其分类能力相关联,从信息熵的角度为其设置测试代价;与此同时,将属性约简与序贯三支决策相结合,利用基于代价最小准则的属性约简去除冗余属性及不相关属性对代价的影响。在7个UCI数据集上的实验结果显示,在保证较高准确度的同时,决策的总代价平均下降了26%左右,充分验证了该方法的有效性。