Impact of farmer households’ livelihood assets on their options of economic compensation patterns for cultivated land protection简

With rapid urbanization and the socio-economic transformation, cultivated land protection has gradually become a major concern in China. The economic compensation plays a crucial role in promoting cultivated land protection and improving the utilization ratio of cultivated land. Farmer household＇s satisfaction has a great influence on the effectiveness of compensation. Therefore, households＇ willingness to select the economic compensation pattern for cultivated land protection has been considered and re-examined. By employing Participatory Rural Appraisal method （PRA）, 3 villages and 392 households were investigated and sampled in mesa and hilly areas of Chongqing. Then a quantitative analysis framework of household livelihood hexagon has been developed to quantify the livelihood assets of differ- ent farmer households. Finally, the Gray Relation Model and Probit Regression Model have been employed to explore the coupling relationship between the household livelihood assets and their compensation pattern options. The results show that there are both qualitative and spatial heterogeneity in household livelihood assets. We found that the inequality of livelihood assets is evident for five household types. There is a spatial trend that the higher the eleva- tion, the less livelihood assets are. In addition, their options of economic compensation pat- tern vary from Chengdu Pattern to Foshan Pattern due to their difference in livelihood assets and difference in location. In detail, there is a coupling relationship between household live- lihood assets and their compensation pattern; negative correlation is observed between natural assets value and household pattern options, while the other livelihood assets have positive impacts on compensation pattern in varying degrees, which from the top are psy- chological assets, human assets, physical assets, financial assets, and social assets respec- tively. A conceptual compensation pattern system has been designed to meet the demands for farmer households mainly according to their shortage in livelihood assets. In addition, compensation method, compensation standard, the basis of compensation and the source of compensation funds have been proposed accordingly.     

青藏高原东部山地农牧区生计与耕地利用模式

This study examined livelihood diversification and cropland use pattern in Keerma village, located in Jinchuan County, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Through stratified random sampling survey, participatory rural appraisal, investigation of households＇ plots and statistical methods, 63 households and 272 cropland plots were systemically investigated and sampled. The results show： （1） Different types of household have variety livelihood strategies, portfolio and income. Livelihood diversification and introducing and expanding off-farm activities can be the future trend, whereas, adverse natural environment, socio-economic conditions and peasants＇ capabilities together affect sustainable livelihood and land use. （2） Each livelihood strategy has its own impact on land use, mainly affecting land use type and land use intensi- fication level. （3） Diversification into off-farm activities could be the key of building sustainable livelihood and the essential approach of realizing sustainable land use in the region.     

农户的非农就业如何影响中国的土地流转?

To clarify the impact of non-agricultural employment on rural land circulation in China,we built logit models using the Chinese Household Income Project 2013 dataset,which includes 18,948 household samples over 15 provinces,126 cities and 234 counties of China in 2013.We use the proportion of non-agricultural income,the proportion of non-agricultural laborers and non-agricultural fixed operating assets to reflect the degree of the households’dependence on agriculture,the degree of the households’laborers committed to non-agricultural employment and the stability of non-agricultural employment,respectively.The results show that the stability of non-agricultural employment is an important reason for farmers to transfer out their land,and an increase in non-agricultural income is the fundamental reason.The proportion of non-agricultural assets has the greatest impact on the decision to transfer land,followed by the proportion of non-agricultural income.Per unit increase in the non-agricultural income ratio has a stronger effect on the transfer-out decision than it does on the transfer-in decision,which is a 0.09 increase of the probability of transfer-out the land and a 0.07 decrease of the probability of transfer-in the land.In terms of regional differences,when considering the impact of non-agricultural employment on the land transfer-out decision,the impacts of non-agricultural income and labor force are the greatest in the Central region.The impact of non-agricultural assets is the greatest in the Eastern region.For the Eastern region,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets and the non-agricultural labor force,and the decision to transfer in land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets.In the Central and Western regions,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural income and the non-agricultural labor force,in that order.The decision to transfer in land in the Central region is not significantly affected by non-agricultural employment.The decision to transfer in land in the Western region is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural labor force and non-agricultural income,in that order.We note that non-agricultural assets have a prominent impact on land transfer,which shows that the stability of non-agricultural employment has an important impact on land transfer decision-making.Vocational training for rural labor forces may be an effective means to promote stable non-agricultural employment and simultaneously facilitate rural land circulation,especially in Central and Western China.     

中国农业劳动力变化与农业经济发展及其对乡村振兴的启示（英文）

Based on panel data from 1991, 2000 and 2010 at the county level in China, this study analyzed the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal patterns of agricultural labor changes and economic development under rapid urbanization using quantitative and GIS spatial analysis methods. Three primary conclusions were obtained.(1) During 1991–2010, China's agricultural labor at the county level showed a decreasing trend, down 4.91% from 1991 to 2000 and 15.50% from 2000 to 2010. In spatial distribution, agricultural labor force has evolved by decreasing eastward and increasing westward.(2) During 1991–2010, China's agricultural economy at the county level showed a sustained growth trend, with a total increase of 140.13%, but with clear regional differences. The proportion of agricultural output in national GDP gradually decreased, characterized by decreases in eastern China and increases in western China.(3) The coupling types of economic-labor elasticity coefficient are mainly growth in northwest China, for both the agricultural economy and labor, and are intensive in southeast China, with growth of the agricultural economy and reduction of agricultural labor. Regions with lagged, fading, and declining coupling types are generally coincident with the high incidence of poverty in China. However, different coupling types had a positive developing trend for 1991–2010. Finally, based on the coupling types and spatial distribution characteristics of economic-labor elasticity coefficients, some policy suggestions are proposed to promote the integration of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries and the vitalization of rural economies.     

Relationship analysis between livelihood assets and livelihood strategies: A Heihe River Basin example

The security and quality of the livelihood of farmers is of paramount concern in rural areas of China. Livelihood stability would force the related polity to act coordinately while eradicating poverty and promoting resource sustainability. For this study, the livelihood approach was used as a framework of analysis that is based upon Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, the core of which is livelihood assets. Livelihood capitals provide substantial contributions to the well-being of numerous rural dwellers. However, the level and degree of reliance on livelihood capital differ across households. Factors that contribute to the economic reliance of households on a particular economic activity in general and on livelihood capital in particular may vary depending upon the type of resource endowment, household demographic, and economic characteristic as well as exogenous factors such as markets, prices, policies, and technologies. This study identifies factors that influence a household’s livelihood strategy choice with a particular focus on livelihood assets. The study applies a preliminary investigation concerning the relationship between livelihood assets and livelihood strategies, that is, the allocation of assets. Environmentally augmented household livelihood assets were collected from 300 sample households within the Heihe River Basin. Results show that physical assets possess a maximum value (0.609) for farmers and human assets possess a relatively high value (0.516) followed by social assets (0.354). Besides, financial and natural assets possess relatively low values (0.286 and 0.241, respectively). An increment of one unit should reduce the occurrence of choosing non-agricultural activities for natural capital while an increment of one unit should increase the occurrence of choosing non-agricultural activities for financial capital, while other variables remain constant. Governments, therefore, should enhance funding and technological support to achieve livelihood diversity and strengthen the facility of farmers by way of establishing relevant polity. It would enable farmers and provide themselves with the ability and asset reserves to transition from agricultural production to secondary and tertiary industries in order to improve the livelihood of farmers overall.     

元代前期省域耕地面积重建（英文）

Reconstructing historical land use and land cover change(LUCC) at the regional scale is an important component of global environmental change studies and of improving global historical land use datasets. By analyzing data in historical documents, including military-oriented cropland(hereafter M-cropland) area, the number of households engaged in M-cropland(hereafter M-household) reclamation, cropland area, and the number of households, we propose a conversion relationship between M-cropland area and cropland area reclaimed by each household. A provincial cropland area estimation method for the Yuan Dynasty is described and used to reconstruct the provincial cropland area for AD1290. Major findings are as follows.(1) Both the M-cropland and cropland areas of each household were high in the north and low in the south during the Yuan Dynasty, which resulted from different natural conditions and planting practices. Based on this observation, the government-allocated M-cropland reclamation area to each household was based on the cropland area reclaimed by each household.(2) The conversion relationship between M-cropland and cropland areas per household showed conversion coefficients of 1.23 and 0.65 for the south and north, respectively.(3) The cropland area in the entire study area in AD1290 was 535.4×106 mu(Chinese area unit, 1 mu=666.7 m~2), 57.8% in the north and 42.2% in the south. The fractional cropland areas for the entire study area, north, and south were 6.8%, 6.6%, and 7.1%, respectively and the per capita cropland areas for the whole study area, north, and south were 6.7, 15.6, and 4.1 mu, respectively.(4) Cropland was mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River(including the Fuli area), Huaihe River Basin(including Henan Province), and middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River(including Jiangzhe, Jiangxi, and Huguang provinces).     

豫西伏牛山地森林植被对水热条件变化的响应研究(英文)

This paper uses HJ-1 satellite multi-spectral and multi-temporal data to extract forest vegetation information in the Funiu Mountain region. The S-G filtering algorithm was employed to reconstruct the MODIS EVI(Enhanced Vegetation Index) time-series data for the period of 2000–2013, and these data were correlated with air temperature and precipitation data to explore the responses of forest vegetation to hydrothermal conditions. The results showed that:(1) the Funiu Mountain region has relatively high and increasing forest coverage with an average EVI of 0.48 over the study period, and the EVI first shows a decreasing trend with increased elevation below 200 m, then an increasing trend from 200–1700 m, and finally a decreasing trend above 1700 m. However, obvious differences could be identified in the responses of different forest vegetation types to climate change. Broad-leaf deciduous forest, being the dominant forest type in the region, had the most significant EVI increase.(2) Temperature in the region showed an increasing trend over the 14 years of the study with an anomaly increasing rate of 0.27℃/10a; a fluctuating yet increasing trend could be identified for the precipitation anomaly percentage.(3) Among all vegetation types, the evergreen broad-leaf forest has the closest EVI-temperature correlation, whereas the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest has the weakest. Almost all forest types showed a weak negative EVI-precipitation correlation, except the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest with a weak positive correlation.(4) There is a slight delay in forest vegetation responses to air temperature and precipitation, with half a month only for limited areas of the mixed evergreen and deciduous forest.     

Spatial characteristics and driving forces of the morphological evolution of East Lake,Wuhan

The shapes of the urban lakes in Wuhan city have been strongly influenced by the rapid industrialization and urbanization experienced in recent decades.Based on topographic maps and remote sensing images,the temporal and spatial changes of East Lake,Wuhan city,over the past two decades were analyzed.The landscape shape index(LSI)and centroid method were applied to analyze the evolution of lake morphology and its causes.Several key results were obtained.(1)The surface area of East Lake decreased sharply by 2.13 km2 from 1995 to 2005,and slightly by 1.00 km2 from 2005 to 2015.The shoreline length of East Lake displayed a continuous trend of decline during the study period:The length reduced by 21.89 km from 1995 to 2005,and by 0.67 km from 2005 to 2015.The LSI values,7.04(1995),6.46(2005),and 6.28(2015),displayed an accelerated downward trend,indicating a reduction of complexity in East Lake and the intensification of manual interventions in the water body.(2)The changes to East Lake displayed a clear temporal and spatial heterogeneity.The centroid of East Lake moved northeast from 1995 to 2005 and southeast from 2005 to 2015.(3)The reduction in the area of East Lake was mainly affected by human activities.A lake area of about 4.8 km2 was converted to other land uses during 1995-2005,most of which was unused land,whereas from 2005 to 2015,0.43 km2 of the lake area was converted into built-up land,and 0.25 km2 was converted into other land uses.The reduction in area was caused by infrastructure construction by the government,the development of the real estate industry,illegal construction by villagers,and the development of scenic spots for tourism.The driving forces of this reduction included Wuhan's growing population,and the rapid development of the economy and urbanization between 1995 and 2015,which has resulted in a large demand for land.Finally,a formation mechanism model was constructed by analyzing the causes of East Lake's morphological evolution.     

耕地撂荒研究进展与展望（英文）

Since the 1950 s, noteworthy farmland abandonment has been occurring in many developed countries and some developing countries. This global land use phenomenon has fundamentally altered extensive rural landscapes. A review of global farmland abandonment under the headings of "land use change – driving mechanisms – impacts and consequences – policy responses" found the following:(1) Farmland abandonment has occurred primarily in developed countries in Europe and North America, but the extent of abandonment has varied significantly.(2) Changing socio-economic factors were the primary driving forces for the farmland abandonment. And land marginalization was the fundamental cause, which was due to the drastic increase of farming opportunity cost, while the direct factor for abandonment was the shrink of agricultural labor forces.(3) Whether to abandon, to what extent and its spatial distributions were finally dependent on integrated effect from the physical conditions, laborer attributes, farming and regional socio-economic conditions at the village, household and parcel scales. With the exception of Eastern Europe, farmland abandonment was more likely to occur in mountainous and hilly areas, due to their unfavorable farming conditions.(4) A study of farmland abandonment should focus on its ecological and environmental effects, while which is more positive or more negative are still in dispute.(5) Increasing agricultural subsidies will be conductive to slowing the rate of farmland abandonment, but this is not the only measure that needs to be implemented. Due to China's rapid urbanization, there is a high probability that the rate of abandonment will increase in the near future. However, very little research has focused on this rapid land-use trend in China, and, as a result, there is an inadequate understanding of the dynamic mechanisms and consequences of this phenomenon. This paper concludes by suggesting some future directions for further research in China. These directions include monitoring regional and national abandonment dynamics, analyzing trends, assessing the risks and socio-economic effects of farmland abandonment, and informing policy making.     

中国山区耕地利用边际化过程机理——基于成本和收益变化的分析（英文）

Farmland marginalization has become the main trend of land-use change in the mountainous areas of China. Using annual survey data of major agricultural production costs and earnings at national and provincial levels in China, this study aims to analyze the reasons and mechanism behind farmland marginalization in mountainous areas. We find that farmers on plains are able to reduce their per mu labor input effectively through intensive use of agricultural machinery, which has minimized the impact of the increase in labor price. However, it is extremely challenging for farmers in mountainous areas to use the same method owing to the rough terrain. Thus, per laborer farming area in these areas has increased relatively slowly, causing a widening gap in agricultural labor productivity between the two regions. With the rapid rise in labor costs since 2003, the marginalization of cultivated land in mountainous areas is evident. In 2013, the net profit of agricultural production in mountainous China fell below zero. Since 2000, the land-use and land-cover change in these areas was characterized by the reduction of farmland area, reforestation, and the enhancement of the NDVI value. The high correlation between the NDVI change rate and the ratio of change in farmland(r = –0.70) and forest(r = 0.91) in mountainous areas at provincial level further attests to the trend of farmland marginalization there. Finally, we summarize the mechanism of such marginalization against the backdrop of the rapid increase in the opportunity cost of farming and the rapid fall of agricultural labor forces in mountainous areas. This study contributes to a deep understanding of the development process of farmland marginalization and abandonment as well as forest transition in Chinese mountainous areas.     

Underlying motivation for land use change: A case study on the variation of agricultural factor productivity in Xinjiang, China

Understanding the driving forces and mechanism of land use change is a key issue in land change science, and has received much attention over the past 30 years. While many driving forces have been identified, the mechanism of land use change is still unclear, mainly because of limited knowledge of the underlying motivation for land use change. Traditionally, the underlying motivation for land use change was ascribed to people＇s pursuit of satisfying their own demands or that of profit maximization. However, those theoretical hypotheses combine all productive factors without highlighting certain predominant factor, in this paper, a case study was conducted on the variation of land productivity, capital productivity and labor productivity in agricultural land use in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China. The case study revealed that only labor productivity presented a long-term increasing trend in regional cotton and grain production. This result implies that people＇s pursuit of increasing labor pro- ductivity is probably the underlying motivation for land use change. Additional details identi- fied in agricultural and non-agricultural land use in China support the above implication. As labor productivity is a determinant of people＇s living standards, increasing labor productivity means improving people＇s living standards. Therefore, it is concluded that land use change results from people＇s pursuit of increasing labor productivity in a changing environment.     

中国山区农村土地利用转型及其对土地整治的政策启示（英文）

The cultivation of mountainous land results in water loss and soil erosion. With rapid urbanization and industrialization in China, labor emigration relieves the cultivation of mountainous areas in regions with high poverty and leads to a significant land use transition. This research built an analysis framework for "land use transition – driving mechanism – effects –responses" for mountainous areas of China undergoing land use transition and then proposed the direction of mountainous land consolidation. The results showed that the turning point of land use morphology was the core of rural land use transition in mountainous areas. The expansion of cropland and the contraction of forestland have transitioned to the abandonment of cropland and the expansion of forestland; this transition was the main characteristic of the dominant land use change. Land marginalization and land ecological functional recovery were the main characteristics of the recessive land use transition in mountainous areas. Socioeconomic factors were the primary driving forces during land use transition in mountainous areas, with labor emigration being the most direct force. The rising costs of farming and the challenging living conditions causing labor emigration were fundamental driving forces. Rural land use transition in mountainous areas reduced the vulnerability of the ecological function of land ecosystems. The advantages and disadvantages of the socioeconomic effects should focus on rural development of mountainous areas as well as the livelihood of farmers; this should be further supported by empirical and quantitative research. Rural land use transition of mountainous areas improves natural restoration and is related to socioeconomic development. Rural land consolidation of mountainous areas should conform to land use transition,with the goal of shifting from the increase of cultivated land to the synergies of ecological and environmental protection.     

中国草食家畜养殖的时空动态及其影响因素（英文）

The development of grass-feeding livestock breeding is the key to promoting the transition from grain-consumption type animal husbandry to grain-saving type animal husbandry in China, and to solving the problem of competition for grain between people and livestock. From the perspective of economic geography, this paper first defines the conversion standard for the breeding quantity of livestock, and then uses exploratory spatial data analysis technology and econometric models and methods to systematically investigate the sequential variation process, geographical aggregation characteristics, and influencing factors of grass-feeding livestock breeding in China. The study results show the following: 1) The breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in China has an obvious overall growth trend, but there is an obvious difference among the livestock species. During the period 1978–2012, the breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in China grew by 92.5%; and the breeding quantity within the same period was beef cattle sheep dairy cow. 2) On the county scale, the number of increasing areas of the breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock is larger than the number of decreasing areas, and the growth rate of breeding quantity of grass-feeding livestock in northern China is higher than that in southern China, which initially forms the pattern of "hot in the north and cold in the south". 3) The spatial Durbin model shows that the per capita output of grain, proportion of productive land area, urban per capita disposable income, agricultural mechanization level, agricultural labor productivity and policy factor have positive effects on the development of grass-feeding livestock breeding, while the per capita GDP, urbanization level and proportion of non-agricultural income have obvious negative effects on it. 4) Grass-feeding livestock breeding in China can be divided into six major types of areas, and each type of area should be regulated and controlled in terms of their respective focus of attention according to regional conditions and situation of agricultural production.     

乡村人口迁出对生态脆弱地区植被覆被的影响——以内蒙古自治区为例（英文）

Different government departments and researchers have paid considerable attention at various levels to improving the eco-environment in ecologically fragile areas. Over the past decade, large numbers of people have emigrated from rural areas as a result of the rapid urbanization in Chinese society. The question then remains: to what extent does this migration affect the regional vegetation greenness in the areas that people have moved from Based on normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) data with a resolution of 1 km, as well as meteorological data and socio-economic data from 2000 to 2010 in Inner Mongolia, the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation greenness in the study area was analyzed via trend analysis and significance test methods. The contributions of human activities and natural factors to the variation of vegetation conditions during this period were also quantitatively tested and verified, using a multi-regression analysis method. We found that:(1) the vegetation greenness of the study area increased by 10.1% during 2000–2010. More than 28% of the vegetation greenness increased significantly, and only about 2% decreased evidently during the study period.(2) The area with significant degradation showed a banded distribution at the northern edge of the agro-pastoral ecotone in central Inner Mongolia. This indicates that the eco-environment is still fragile in this area, which should be paid close attention. The area where vegetation greenness significantly improved showed a concentrated distribution in the southeast and west of Inner Mongolia.(3) The effect of agricultural labor on vegetation greenness exceeded those due to natural factors(i.e. precipitation and temperature). The emigration of agricultural labor improved the regional vegetation greenness significantly.     

1970–2011年可可西里地区湖泊面积变化的时空特征(英文)

As one of the areas with numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, the Hoh Xil region plays an extremely important role in the fragile plateau eco-environment. Based on topographic maps in the 1970 s and Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in the 1990 s and the period from 2000 to 2011, the data of 83 lakes with an area above 10 km2 each were obtained by digitization method and artificial visual interpretation technology, and the causes for lake variations were also analyzed. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows.(1) From the 1970 s to 2011, the lakes in the Hoh Xil region firstly shrank and then expanded. In particular, the area of lakes generally decreased during the 1970s–1990s. Then the lakes expanded from the 1990 s to 2000 and the area was slightly higher than that in the 1970 s. The area of lakes dramatically increased after 2000.(2) From 2000 to 2011, the lakes with different area ranks in the Hoh Xil region showed an overall expansion trend. Meanwhile, some regional differences were also discovered. Most of the lakes expanded and were widely distributed in the northern, central and western parts of the region. Some lakes were merged together or overflowed due to their rapid expansion. A small number of lakes with the trend of area decrease or strong fluctuation were scattered in the central and southern parts of the study area. And their variations were related to their own supply conditions or hydraulic connection with the downstream lakes or rivers.(3) The increase in precipitation was the dominant factor resulting in the expansion of lakes in the Hoh Xil region. The secondary factor was the increase in meltwater from glaciers and frozen soil due to climate warming.     

黑河流域气温的稳定性与长程相关性（英文）

Air temperature(AT) is a subsystem of a complex climate.Long-range correlation(LRC) is an important feature of complexity.Our research attempt to evaluate AT’s complexity differences in different land-use types in the Heihe River Basin(HRB) based on the stability and LRC.The results show the following:(1) AT’s stability presents differences in different land-use types.In agricultural land,there is no obvious variation in the trend throughout the year.Whereas in a desert,the variation in the trend is obvious: the AT is more stable in summer than it is in winter,with Ta ranges of [8,20]°C and SD of the AT residual ranges of [0.2,0.7],respectively.Additionally,in mountainous areas,when the altitude is beyond a certain value,AT’s stability changes.(2) AT’s LRC presents differences in different land-use types.In agricultural land,the long-range correlation of AT is the most persistent throughout the year,showing the smallest difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.8,1].Vegetation could be an important factor.In a desert,the long-range correlation of AT is less persistent,showing the greatest difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.54,0.96].Solar insolation could be a dominant factor.In an alpine meadow,the long-range correlation of AT is the least persistent throughout the year,presenting a smaller difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.6,0.85].Altitude could be an important factor.(3) Usually,LRC is a combination of the Ta and SD of the AT residuals.A larger Ta and smaller SD of the AT residual would be conducive to a more persistent LRC,whereas a smaller Ta and larger SD of the AT residual would limit the persistence of LRC.A larger Ta and SD of the AT residual would create persistence to a degree between those of the first two cases,as would a smaller Ta and SD of the AT residual.In addition,the last two cases might show the same LRC.     

Spatial-temporal characteristics and decoupling effects of China’s carbon footprint based on multi-source data

In 2007, China surpassed the USA to become the largest carbon emitter in the world. China has promised a 60%–65% reduction in carbon emissions per unit GDP by 2030, compared to the baseline of 2005. Therefore, it is important to obtain accurate dynamic information on the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions and carbon footprints to support formulating effective national carbon emission reduction policies. This study attempts to build a carbon emission panel data model that simulates carbon emissions in China from 2000–2013 using nighttime lighting data and carbon emission statistics data. By applying the Exploratory Spatial-Temporal Data Analysis(ESTDA) framework, this study conducted an analysis on the spatial patterns and dynamic spatial-temporal interactions of carbon footprints from 2001–2013. The improved Tapio decoupling model was adopted to investigate the levels of coupling or decoupling between the carbon emission load and economic growth in 336 prefecture-level units. The results show that, firstly, high accuracy was achieved by the model in simulating carbon emissions. Secondly, the total carbon footprints and carbon deficits across China increased with average annual growth rates of 4.82% and 5.72%, respectively. The overall carbon footprints and carbon deficits were larger in the North than that in the South. There were extremely significant spatial autocorrelation features in the carbon footprints of prefecture-level units. Thirdly, the relative lengths of the Local Indicators of Spatial Association(LISA) time paths were longer in the North than that in the South, and they increased from the coastal to the central and western regions. Lastly, the overall decoupling index was mainly a weak decoupling type, but the number of cities with this weak decoupling continued to decrease. The unsustainable development trend of China's economic growth and carbon emission load will continue for some time.     

近60年黄河水沙变化及其对三角洲沉积的影响

In order to find out the variation process of water-sediment and its effect on the Yellow River Delta, the water discharge and sediment load at Lijin from 1950 to 2007 and the decrease of water discharge and sediment load in the Yellow River Basin caused by human disturbances were analyzed by means of statistics. It was shown that the water discharge and sediment load into the sea were decreasing from 1950 to 2007 with serious fluctuation. The human activities were the main cause for decrease of water discharge and sediment load into the sea. From 1950 to 2005, the average annual reduction of water discharge and sediment load by means of water-soil conservation practices were 2.02×109 m3 and 3.41×108 t respectively, and the average annual volume by water abstraction for industry and agriculture were 2.52×1010 m3 and 2.42×108 t respectively. The average sediment trapped by Sanmenxia Reservoir was 1.45×108 t from 1960 to 2007, and the average sediment retention of Xiaolangdi Reservoir was 2.398×108 t from 1997 to 2007. Compared to the data records at Huanyuankou, the water discharge and sediment load into the sea decreased with siltation in the lower reaches and increased with scouring in the lower reaches. The coastline near river mouth extended and the delta area increased when the ratio of accumulative sediment load and accumulative water discharge into the sea (SSCT) is 25.4–26.0 kg/m3 in different time periods. However, the sharp decrease of water discharge and sediment load into the sea in recent years, especially the Yellow River into the sea at Qing 8, the entire Yellow River Delta has turned into erosion from siltation, and the time for a reversal of the state was about 1997.     

华北地下水超采区冬小麦退耕的生态补偿（英文）

The land fallow policy was adopted by central and local governments to encourage the abandonment of water-intensive crops, such as winter wheat, in groundwater over-exploited areas. At the same time, since the 1990 s, many households in the North China Plain(NCP) have chosen to replace the winter wheat and summer maize double-cropping system with the spring maize single-cropping system. Therefore, it is crucial to identify target land parcels for winter wheat abandonment and to design reasonable and proper standards for ecological compensation prior to the implementation of the land fallow policy in the NCP. In this study, multi-level logit models were used with household survey data in order to detect determinants across land parcel, household and village levels on household cropping system decisions; the opportunity costs for winter wheat abandonment were also calculated using cost–benefit analysis. The results show that:(1) land quality and irrigation condition at parcel level are two essential elements influencing household cropping system decisions. Nearly 70% of the total area of poor land and more than 90% of the total area of unirrigated land has suffered winter wheat abandonment. Target land parcels for the land fallow policy should be those that are irrigated and of high quality.(2) There were no significant differences between net profits from spring maize and summer maize under similar farming conditions, and the opportunity cost for winter wheat abandonment should be equal to the net profit of winter wheat.(3) The primary purpose of the land fallow policy is to induce groundwater recovery and restoration as a preliminary stage. A higher level of 350 yuan/mu is recommended as subsidy for ecological compensation at this stage. Later, the primary purpose of the policy should be a transition to a balance between exploitation and supplementation of water resources, and a lower level of 280 yuan/mu is recommended as a subsidy at this stage.     

20世纪80年代以来全球耕地变化的基本特征及空间格局（英文）

In this paper, we analyzed the spatial patterns of cultivated land change between 1982 and 2011 using global vector-based land use/land cover data.(1) Our analysis showed that the total global cultivated land area increased by 528.768×104 km~2 with a rate of 7.920×104 km~2/a, although this increasing trend was not significant. The global cultivated land increased fastest in the 1980 s. Since the 1980 s, the cultivated land area in North America, South America and Oceania increased by 170.854×104 km~2, 107.890×104 km~2, and 186.492×104 km~2, respectively. In contrast, that in Asia, Europe and Africa decreased by 23.769×104 km~2, 4.035×104 km~2 and 86.76×104 km~2, respectively. Furthermore, the cultivated land area in North America, South America and Oceania exhibited significant increasing trends of 7.236× 104 km~2/a, 2.780×104 km~2/a and 3.758×104 km~2/a, respectively. On the other hand, that of Asia, Europe and Africa exhibited decreasing trend rates of –5.641×104 km~2/a, –0.831×104 km~2/a and –0.595×104 km~2/a, respectively. Moreover, the decreasing trend in Asia was significant.(2) Since the 1980 s, the increase in global cultivated lands was mainly due to converted grasslands and woodlands, which accounted for 53.536% and 26.148% of the total increase, respectively. The increase was found in southern and central Africa, eastern and northern Australia, southeastern South America, central US and Alaska, central Canada, western Russia, northern Finland and northern Mongolia. Among them, Botswana in southern Africa experienced an 80%–90% increase, making it the country with the highest increase worldwide.(3) Since the 1980 s, the total area of cultivated lands converted to other types of land was 1071.946×104 km~2. The reduction was mainly converted to grasslands and woodlands, which accounted for 57.482% and 36.000%, respectively. The reduction occurred mainly in southern Sudan in central Africa, southern and central US, southern Russia, and southern European countries including Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Hungary. The greatest reduction occurred in southern Africa with a 60% reduction.(4) The cultivated lands in all the continents analyzed exhibited a trend of expansion to high latitudes. Additionally, most countries displayed an expansion of newly increased cultivated lands and the reduction of the original cultivated lands.