新疆的劳动力市场和少数民族劳动者

中国劳动力市场的一个突出特点就是其分割性,这种“分割性”具体表现在城乡之间的分割、城市内部之间的分割、农村内部之间的分割。本文以新疆劳动力市场为例,考察了劳动力市场的地区分割,特别是民族地区劳动力市场的特点及其产生的主要问题。新疆劳动力市场呈现出民族成分构成较高,劳动者主要集中在第一和第二产业就业,人力资本投资普遍不足的特点。从劳动力市场指标来看,新疆的失业率水平虽然总体比较平稳,但是少数民族劳动者的失业率较高。他们的工资水平较低,流动意愿也不高,这进一步阻碍了其提高收入和改善经济地位的可能性。政府在制定宏观劳动政策时必须注意这些特点,改善劳动力市场中弱势群体的经济地位。     

Experienced Well-Being and Labor Market Status: The Role of Pleasure and Meaning

Social Indicators Research - This paper examines the experienced well-being of employed and unemployed workers. We use the survey-adapted Day Reconstruction Method of the Innovation Sample of the...     

生育率最优路径、劳动力供给转型与经济增长

通过内生化劳动力和人力资本,以Q-Q理论为基础,根据生育率在劳动力供给和人力资本积累中的联动关系以及劳动力供给转型规律,利用动态最优控制原理,解释了殖民解放以来发展中国家先上升后下降的人口再生产过程及经济效应。结果表明:生育率的最优路径呈倒U型;整个路径存在两个鞍点均衡,只有当人力资本积累跨越某个门槛值时,第一个鞍点均衡才能过渡到另一个鞍点均衡;均衡的产出水平与劳动力折旧率成正比,与人力资本折旧率成反比。     

The Role of Family and Friends in Return Migration and Its Labor Market Outcomes

Population Research and Policy Review - Drawing on survey data on individuals’ motives for migration in Sweden (N?=?2172), we examine the importance of family and friends for...     

Why Is Fertility Lower in Wealthier Countries? The Role of Relaxed Fertility‐Selection

Lower fertility in wealthier countries can be explained in evolutionary terms by three key factors: (i) higher fertility in poorer countries—an evolutionary consequence of many generations of intense “fertility‐selection” favoring innate behaviors promoting high fertility, especially in males; (ii) the empowerment of women in wealthier countries that serves to reduce fertility directly—an evolutionary consequence of selection favoring an inherent preference for lower fertility in females, combined with release from the evolutionary effects of a long history of male control over female fertility; and (iii) offspring access in wealthy countries to public health care, welfare, and other social services, which combined with inherited wealth for offspring, virtually eliminates competition between families for the resource needs of offspring. The combined consequences of (ii) and (iii) mean that the fertility‐selection so prevalent in poor countries is relaxed in wealthy countries, thus allowing random genetic drift to produce an increased relative frequency of innate behaviors promoting low fertility and discontentment with high fertility.     

市场潜能、有效边界与中国劳动力市场效率

文章基于新经济地理学D-S理论框架与空间计量方法,采用2012-2014年中国劳动力动态调查(CLDS)微观样本和省域面板数据构建多层次回归模型,从劳动者工资和就业二元视角界定我国劳动力市场的市场潜能空间边界。研究发现在全域空间上,市场潜能显著提升了我国劳动者工资和就业水平,给劳动力市场带来"双重利好";在局域空间上,随着省域间隔距离增加,市场潜能难以持续发挥对劳动力市场的空间效应,在一定半径范围呈现出"边界效应"。分组来看,市场潜能对沿海地区的工资增收效应最大,其次是沿边和内陆地区,对于就业水平的改善在内陆地区最为显著;扩大市场潜能将有助于缩小高、低人力资本聚集区域的工资水平差距,改善低人力资本区域和群体的就业水平,不过市场潜能对高、低人力资本群体产生了工资"临界分割效应";高速铁路相对于普通铁路产生的"地理收缩效应"进一步提升了市场潜能对劳动者就业的边际增长效应,对劳动者工资边际增长效应弱于普通铁路时期,但整体效应仍然显著为正。综合而言,突破市场潜能有效边界进行"空间重塑"以及在有效边界内进行"空间修复",有效调节地区之间由于市场潜能差异而导致的工资水平和就业增长的差距,从而从整体上提升我国劳动力市场效率。     

劳动力市场分割、户口与城乡就业差异

文章利用2006年CHNS数据,根据切换回归模型的结果检验中国劳动力市场是否存在分割,并分析了分割状态下户口对城乡劳动者就业的影响.研究表明,目前中国的劳动力市场依然存在二元分割;户口是限制农村劳动者进入主要劳动力市场的重要因素之一;拥有城镇户口的劳动者不仅几乎垄断了主要劳动力市场上的就业,而且在次要劳动力市场中也处于有利地位.     

市场转型、劳动力市场多重分割与职业地位获得

本文从劳动力市场多重分割视角出发,将部门因素、行业因素和职业因素统合起来,作为表示个体职业地位的综合测量指标.并利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年数据对改革以来城市居民的职业地位获得的影响路径进行分析.研究发现:(1)无论是整个时期还是改革的三个阶段,家庭背景最主要由父亲受教育水平和父亲所在部门来决定;(2)随着改革的深入,家庭背景对子代教育的直接效应在增强;(3)总体上子代教育对子代初职地位和现职地位都有显著影响,且伴随改革的深化其影响在增大;(4)无论在哪个时期,子代初职地位对子代现职地位的直接效应都十分显著,这表明中国城镇居民的代内不流动现象十分普遍.这说明伴随改革深入,家庭背景通过教育进行隐性传递的趋势日趋明显,教育不平等问题需引起重点关注.     

人力资本、再就业与劳动力市场建设

经济学家和社会学家一向强调人力资本在就业中的作用,但对下岗职工再就业过程的经验分析表明,下岗职工的人力资本对再就业几乎没有发挥作用,而他们的专业技能更面临着在市场中“贬值”的危险。这在很大程度上是因为当前劳动力市场制度不完善的缘故。为此,应加快市场制度建设,大力促进非国有经济发展,为职工提供更多的就业岗位,同时要加强职工的再就业培训,促进其人力资本更新,使人力资本发挥其应有作用。     

Immigration to the UK from High‐Fertility Countries: Intergenerational Adaptation and Fertility Convergence

The fertility of immigrants' children increasingly shapes the ethnic diversity of the population in Western Europe. However, few data are available on the fertility patterns of immigrants and their offspring. This article provides new fertility estimates of immigrants and immigrants' children by ethnic group in the United Kingdom that may provide better‐informed fertility assumptions for future population projection models. The impact of migration‐specific tempo effects on the period TFR of immigrants is analyzed. Among the results, intergenerational fertility transitions strongly contribute both to fertility convergence between ethnic groups and to fertility “assimilation” or “intergenerational adaptation” to the UK mainstream childbearing behavior. Ethnic fertility convergence, particularly marked for populations originating from high‐fertility countries, reflects in part decreasing fertility in sending countries and in part intergenerational adaptation to the UK mainstream. Higher educational enrollment of the daughters of immigrants may partly explain their relatively lower fertility.     

Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low‐Fertility Countries

This account reports on a project in progress that aims to obtain a comprehensive picture of contemporary fertility levels and trends in 27 low‐fertility countries. Cohort analysis is applied to review the fertility experience of women born from the 1930s through the 1970s. This choice of dates ensures that not only completed fertility but also the fertility patterns of women in the midst of or near the onset of their reproductive period are examined. In most of the 27 countries, completed fertility of successive cohorts has been declining. It appears plausible that the trends discerned in the analysis will continue in the foreseeable future. For these trends to be reversed, women who are about to enter or who are in the midst of their reproductive periods would have to adopt fertility patterns markedly different from those of women born in the 1960s and 1970s.     

非正规部门劳动者的就业问题与对策

非正规部门的出现 ,有很大的积极作用 ,但是由于劳动用工制度和社会保障制度的不健全 ,使得就业于非正规部门的劳动者面临很多问题 ,如劳动雇佣关系和劳动制度的不规范性 ,行政管理部门的过渡干涉以及缺乏保障等。解决这些问题 ,需要劳动者个人、政府有关部门和整个社会的共同努力     

Can Economic Growth Be Sustained? A Post‐Malthusian Perspective

In the United States and in other economically advanced countries, rapid productivity growth in the material‐producing sectors has been the major source of productivity growth for the entire economy. Over the next several decades, continuing structural change will result in a decline in employment in the material‐producing sectors to near or below 10 percent. A simulation exercise is employed to demonstrate how continued slow productivity growth in the service sectors dampens the rate of productivity growth of the entire economy. It is unlikely that productivity growth in the US economy can be sustained at anywhere near the relatively high rate achieved since the mid‐1990s.     

China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects

Between 1970 and 1990, China experiencoed a rapid and sharp fertility decline—from total fertility rates of approximately six births to two. The degree to which Chinese fertility has continued to fall after 1990 is controversial. We use survey data from the 1997 National Population and Reproductive Health Survey and from the 2001 Reproductive Health and Family Planning Survey to document recent trends in Chinese fertility. Our estimates provide further evidence that China's fertility is well below‐replacement level at the turn of the twenty‐first century—with TFR levels of approximately 1.5 children per woman. Trends in parity‐specific cohort fertility by age also suggest below replacement completed fertility for cohorts still in the childbearing years. In the article's second section, we identify key components of low period fertility in order to frame our discussion of two questions: 1) in what ways is Chinese low fertility different from/similar to that in other low‐fertility countries? And 2) what are the likely future trends in Chinese fertility?     

城市农民工歧视问题研究

采用中国住户调查数据和综合社会调查数据考察我国城市劳动力市场的户籍差异,并使用Oaxaca分解方法研究户籍歧视对差异的解释力度及其变动。研究表明,城市农民工无论在就业待遇还是就业保障方面均受到歧视。2002—2006年,农民工与城市工工资差异不断缩小,户籍歧视对工资的影响也相应降低;然而,农民工与城市工的就业保障差异在逐年扩大,户籍歧视的影响效应不断上升。