哈尔滨市气温的多时间尺度变化特征

分析了近４５年哈尔滨市年平均气温的长期线性倾向,几十年尺度的突变点和更小尺度的时频局部结构,揭示了全国增暖背景下哈尔滨市气温变化的若干特征。     

丽水近50年气温变化规律、突变分析及趋势预测

本文采用1953～2004年丽水观测站气温资料,通过使用线性回归分析、滑动平均、累积距平等方法对近50年的气温进行诊断分析,得出1953年以来丽水的年平均气温总体以0.1185℃/10 a的变化率上升;通过用滑动t-检验、Yamamoto法、Mann-Kendall法等方法大致确定1958年、1997年是年平均气温由冷转为增暖的突变点.在此基础上针对年平均气温序列本身建立了自回归滑动平均模型,模型预报能较好的拟合实况序列,对下一年的趋势预报有一定的应用价值.     

青藏高原近代气温变化趋势及突变分析

利用青藏高原84个气象站建站至2001年的月平均气温资料,分析了40年来气温变化的时空分布特征及趋势,揭示了高原大部分地区平均气温和最高、最低气温普遍升高,最低气温上升速率是最高气温的1倍～3倍,气温日较差显著减小;青藏高原各区的气温突变多发生在20世纪80年代,大部分地区早于北半球1988年的气温突变,平均气温和最高、最低气温的突变在各区都有发生,平均气温突变开始于柴达木盆地(1973年),最高、最低气温及气温日较差(DTR)分别开始于高原东部、柴达木盆地和高原南部等地;不同季节的突变随时间地点而有所变化。     

榆阳区近62年气温突变分析

利用估计温度变化趋势的线性回归方程及M-K检验方法,对陕西北部榆阳区1951—2012年年、季平均气温和最高(低)气温序列进行诊断分析。结果表明:近62a来榆阳区升温显著,年平均气温线性趋势率0.21℃/10a;榆阳区气温变化有两个特点,一是最低气温升高,二是冬季升温明显高于其它季节;M-K检验表明年平均气温在1993年发生突变,年平均最高气温突变发生远早于年平均最低气温。     

武汉近百年来气温变化的多时间尺度分析

用墨西哥帽小波变换分析了武汉1905－1998年逐月气温资料，揭示了气候变化的多时间尺度结构，分析了其中存在的主要周期振荡和突变点。结果表明：武汉气候在20世纪主要经历了冷－暖－冷－暖4个阶段，目前处于相对暖期；气温存在准2年、21年和65年左右的周期振荡；不同时间尺度不具有不同的冷暖结构和气候突变点。     

榆林区近62年气温突变分析

摘要：利用估计温度变化趋势的线性回归方程及M-K检验方法, 对陕西北部榆阳区1951—2012年年、季平均气温和最高(低)气温序列进行诊断分析。结果表明：近62 a来榆阳区升温显著,年平均气温线性趋势率021 ℃/10 a;榆阳区气温变化有两个特点,一是最低气温升高,二是冬季升温明显高于其它季节;M-K检验表明年平均气温在1993年发生突变,年平均最高气温突变发生远早于年平均最低气温。

     

六盘水市气温变化特征及突变分析

利用六盘水市1961—2004年的逐月平均气温资料,平均最高、最低气温,采用线性倾向估计对六盘水市年平均气温、年平均最高、最低气温的年际、年代际变化进行统计分析,并利用Mann-Kendall方法进行突变检测,结果表明:六盘水市年平均气温、年平均最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势,其线性倾向率分别为0.097℃/10 a、0.054℃/10 a、0.184℃/10 a;六盘水年平均气温比较明显的突变点出现在1992年;年平均最高气温突变点1963、2001年,年平均最低气温在1978年发生突变。     

近40年郑州冬夏气温突变的诊断分析

采用Mann-Kendall方法，分析了郑州市南郊气象观测站近40年来冬季和夏季气温突变的特点，并进一步分析了其与北郊城市站的温差序列的突变特点，结果表明，冬季和夏季的气温均存在突变，且在20世纪90年代后期冬季气温增温较快。     

近50年来黑龙江省气温变化的多时间尺度分析

对黑龙江省近50年来的气温进行Morlet小波变换,得出了气温变化的多时间尺度特征和突变特征,并与功率谱分析结果进行比较。结论对黑龙江省气温的短期气候预测有一定的指导意义。     

河南省近40年气温突变分析

利用1958～2000年气温资料,对河南省四季和全年的平均气温进行滑动t检验,研究近40年来全省气温的突变情况.结果表明,夏季气温有下降的趋势,而冬、春、秋季和全年气温则稳定上升.     

遵义气温与降水变化的多时间尺度对比分析

用一维Morlet小波变换对遵义市（3个站资料）1951-2006年56a气温与降水资料序列诊断,将二者在6a、10a和19a时间尺度下的小波系数过程线的对比分析发现,遵义市的气温和降水彼此的相关性与二者在年际尺度和年代际尺度上表现出的位相具有较为明显的对应关系,即当气温和降水相关性显著时,二者在其对应变化的年际尺度上表现出较强的反位相,而如果二者的相关性不显著时,二者在其对应变化的较大的年代际尺度上表现出较强的反位相。     

一个锢囚状中尺度对流系统的多尺度结构分析

利用多普勒雷达、气象卫星、自动气象站等监测资料、1°×1°NCEP再分析资料和4DVAR雷达反演低层风场资料,运用雷达拼图图形叠加、剖面和中尺度滤波等分析手段,对2007年7月18日华北东部一个锢囚状a中尺度对流系统(MaCS)的多尺度空间、动力结构及其演变进行了细致地分析.结果表明:(1) MaCS生命史分为发生发展...     

遵义市天气加密报传输监控程序

根据地级业务科实际业务管理和基层测报业务工作开展的需要,开发了天气加密报传输监控程序,该程序能够实时对天气加密报的传输情况进行监控,对天气加密报未成功传输给予报警,能够让测报业务管理人员和基层测报值班人员及时补发。同时该程序还能够对自动站资料传输通道给予实时监控,当网络中断时能够自动启动拨号,呼叫网络值班人员。     

A conceptual framework for time and space scale interactions in the climate system

 Interactions involving various time and space scales, both within the tropics and between the tropics and midlatitudes, are ubiquitous in the climate system. We propose a conceptual framework for understanding such interactions whereby longer time scales and larger space scales set the base state for processes on shorter time scales and smaller space scales, which in turn have an influence back on the longer time scales and larger space scales in a continuum of process-related interactions. Though not intended to be comprehensive, we do cite examples from the literature to provide evidence for the validity of this framework. Decadal time scale base states of the coupled climate system set the context for the manifestation of interannual time scales (El Nino/Southern Oscillation, ENSO and tropospheric biennial oscillation, TBO) which are influenced by and interact with the annual cycle and seasonal time scales. Those base states in turn influence the large-scale coupled processes involved with intraseasonal and submonthly time scales, tied to interactions within the tropics and extratropics, and tropical–midlatitude teleconnections. All of these set the base state for processes on the synoptic and mesoscale and regional/local space scales. Events at those relatively short time scales and small space scales may then affect the longer time scale and larger space scale processes in turn, reaching back out to submonthly, intraseasonal, seasonal, annual, TBO, ENSO and decadal. Global coupled models can capture some elements of the decadal, ENSO, TBO, annual and seasonal time scales with the associated global space scales. However, coupled models are less successful at simulating phenomena at subseasonal and shorter time scales with hemispheric and smaller space scales. In the context of the proposed conceptual framework, the synergistic interactions of the time and space scales suggest that a high priority must be placed on improved simulations of all of the time and space scales in the climate system. This is particularly important for the subseasonal time scales and hemispheric and smaller space scales, which are not well simulated at present, to improve the prospects of successfully forecasting phenomena beyond the synoptic scales. Received: 3 April 2000/ Accepted: 6 November 2000     

Modelling the Baltic Sea ocean climate on centennial time scale: temperature and sea ice

This study considers the possible use of different kinds of forcing datasets in Baltic Sea ocean climate modelling on centennial time scales, in particular for the past half millennium. We demonstrate that high-quality station data of the past century and gridded multi-proxy reconstructions for the past 500 years can be used with great success but with various levels of detail. We also demonstrate that output data from the state-of-the-art global climate model EcHo-G are not suitable for modelling the Baltic Sea ocean climate. Two climate properties were studied: the annual maximum ice extent (MIB) and the vertically and horizontally integrated annual water temperature. Centennial time scale results indicate that the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries were the coldest centuries, while the 1690s were the coldest decade and 1695 the coldest year in the last 500 years. The results also indicate that the twentieth century was the warmest century with the least MIB of the last 500 years. On a decadal time scale, the 1990s, 1930s and 1730s were the warmest decades and comparable in terms of both water temperature and MIB. The year 1989 had the minimum observed MIB of only 52,000 km², implying that the Baltic Sea has been partly ice covered in all winters of the past half millennium. Even though different climate forcing mechanisms may operate on the climate system today compared to over the last half millennium, this study cannot clearly state that the region is experiencing climate change outside the natural limits of the past 500 years.     

百年来上海、北京气候突变的初步分析

本文应用Mann-Kendall方法对1873—1989年上海、北京的气温、降水时间序列进行了突变检验。其结果表明,上海、北京的百年气温分别在1932年和1919年出现冷转暖的气候突变。同时,还判别出上海降水在1906年发生突变,其后进入一个相对多雨时段。北京降水突变在1903年,而后进入一个相对少雨时段。另外,还用其它方法对突变点加以验证说明。     

遵义市太阳能资源分布推算及其利用评估

为了给遵义市太阳能资源利用提供科学依据,该文根据行业标准《太阳能资源评估方法》,整理了遵义气象台30a的太阳辐射观测资料,建立了两种回归模式,分别推算了各县市、各乡镇的太阳总辐射,分析了全市太阳总辐射的时空分布特征,评估了太阳辐射的利用价值,并提出了太阳能利用的对策建议。     

Observation based analysis of the growth of MJO time scale from its nonlinear scale interactions with the synoptic scales

Summary The present paper addressed the issue of growth of planetary boundary-layer fluxes on the time scale of MJO based on ECMWF reanalysis daily data of 180 days covering April–September, 2001. Diagnostic analysis of this data set utilises computations of moisture and sensible heat fluxes in the frequency domain which involve nonlinear interactions phenomena of MJO time scale with the synoptic scales. Basically the whole computations performed are based on surface similarity theory and Richardson number dependent K-theory in the surface and planetary boundary layer (PBL), respectively, both invoke triple product nonlinearilies. Present observational study shows that among the totality of the triads participating in phase-locking phenomena, a prominent band of those reside in the MJO time scales (30 to 60 days) and the synoptic time scales (3 to 7 days). The study suggests that the low frequency variability on MJO time scale in moisture and sensible heat flux arises from its nonlinear interactions with synoptic time scales. The results show that the phases of the three interacting oscillations associated with specific humidity/SST, Richardson number dependent instability factor and wind shear are positive and reasonably close to each other. The amplitudes of the synoptic scale oscillations are not insignificant compared to that of MJO. These dynamical aspects regarding the phases and amplitudes of the three participating oscillations favour the nonlinear interactions of MJO to the synoptic scales and thus lead to rapid exchange of energy transfer to the former.Visiting scientist from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune-411008, India.     

遵义市防雷综合管理数据库

介绍了以当前流行、实用和较完善的C++Builder6.0开发的<遵义市防雷综合管理数据库>,且结合开发过程简要叙述了在开发中的一些技术处理.     

A spatial length scale analysis of turbulent temperature and velocity fluctuations within and above an orchard canopy

Turbulent flow within and above an almond orchard was measured with three-dimensional wind sensors and fine-wire thermocouple sensors arranged in a horizontal array. The data showed organized turbulent structures as indicated by coherent asymmetric ramp patterns in the time series traces across the sensor array. Space-time correlation analysis indicated that velocity and temperature fluctuations were significantly correlated over a transverse distance more than 4m. Integral length scales of velocity and temperature fluctuations were substantially greater in unstable conditions than those in stable conditions. The coherence spectral analysis indicated that Davenport's geometric similarity hypothesis was satisfied in the lower frequency region. From the geometric similarity hypothesis, the spatial extents of large ramp structures were also estimated with the coherence functions.