Bottom-up control of consumers leads to top-down indirect facilitation of invasive annual herbs in semiarid Chile

The abundance of exotic plants is thought to be limited by competition with resident species (including plants and generalist herbivores). In contrast, observations in semiarid Chile suggest that a native generalist rodent, the degu (Octodon degus), may be facilitating the expansion of exotic annual plants. We tested this hypothesis with a 20-year data set from a World Biosphere Reserve in mediterranean Chile. In this semiarid environment, rainfall varies annually and dramatically influences cover by both native and exotic annual plants; degu population density affects the composition and cover of exotic and native annual plants. In low-rainfall years, cover of both native and exotic herbs is extremely low. Higher levels of precipitation result in proportional increases in cover of all annual plants (exotic and native species), leading in turn to increases in degu population densities, at which point they impact native herbs in proportion to their greater cover, indirectly favoring the expansion of exotic plants. We propose that bottom-up control of consumers at our site results in top-down indirect facilitation of invasive annual herbs, and that this pattern may be general to other semiarid ecosystems.     

Tolerance to high temperatures and potential impact of sea warming on reef fishes of Gorgona Island (tropical eastern Pacific)

Knowledge of upper thermal-tolerance limits of marine organisms in the tropical eastern Pacific (TEP) is important because of the influence of phenomena such as El Niño and global warming, which increase sea temperature. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the critical thermal maximum (CTM) of reef fishes from the TEP. In 15 reef fishes of Gorgona Island (TEP) the CTM was between 34.7°C and 40.8°C. None of these CTMs was exceeded by sea temperature in the TEP during any of the strongest El Niño events in this century (32°C during El Niño 1982-1983 and 1997-1998), which indicates that all species studied here may tolerate El Niño maximum temperatures. In addition, the CTM of the least-tolerant species was 8°C above the current mean sea temperature in a wide range of latitudes in the TEP. This suggests that fishes live far from their upper thermal tolerance limits and that the current global-warming trend is still unlikely to be dangerous for these species. If sea temperature continues to increase at the current rate, in about a century sea temperature could exceed the thermal tolerance of some reef fishes and threaten them with extinction. Such risk, however, might occur sooner if the sea temperature during El Niño also increased in step with the global warming, but also because other processes involved in maintaining population, such as reproduction, can be affected at lower temperatures. The possible ability of reef fishes to adapt to increases in sea temperature is discussed.     

Amazonian Tree Mortality during the 1997 El Niño Drought

Abstract: In 1997, the Amazon Basin experienced an exceptionally severe El Niño drought. We assessed effects of this rare event on mortality rates of trees in intact rain forest based on data from permanent plots. Long-term (5- to 13-year) mortality rates averaged only 1.12% per year prior to the drought. During the drought year, annual mortality jumped to 1.91% but abruptly fell back to 1.23% in the year following El Niño. Trees dying during the drought did not differ significantly in size or species composition from those that died previously, and there was no detectable effect of soil texture on mortality rates. These results suggest that intact Amazonian rainforests are relatively resistant to severe El Niño events.     

Viability Analysis of Reef Fish Populations Based on Limited Demographic Information

Abstract:  Marine protected areas (MPAs) that allow some degree of artisanal fishing have been proposed to control the overexploitation of marine resources while allowing extraction by local communities. Nevertheless, the management of MPAs is often impaired by the absence of data on the status of their resources. We devised a method to estimate population growth rates with the type of data that are usually available for reef fishes. We used 7 years of spatially explicit abundance data on the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in an MPA in the Gulf of California, Mexico, to construct a matrix population model that incorporated the effects of El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation on population dynamics. An environmental model that estimated different demographic estimates for El Niño and La Niña periods performed better than a single-environment model, and a single-habitat model performed better than a model that considered different depths as different habitats. Our results suggest that the population of the leopard grouper off the main island of the MPA is not viable under present conditions. Although the impact of fishing on leopard grouper populations in the MPA has not yet been established, fishing should be closed as a precautionary measure at this island if a priority of the MPA is to ensure the sustainability of its fish populations.     

Temperature tolerance and latitudinal range of brown algae from temperate Pacific South America

Lower and upper survival temperatures of microthalli of 25 species of South American Phaeophyceae isolated from central Peru (14°S) to the Canal Beagle (55°S) were determined using 2-wk exposure for the upper and 4-wk exposure for the lower limit. All species survive 4 wks at -2°C. With respect to the upper limit, species reported only from southernmost South America tolerate 19.9 to 24.5°C (n=8), and species occurring from Cape Horn to central Chile 24.6 to 27.4°C (n=7). Three species that occurred as far north as northern Chile and Peru before the 1982–1983 El Niño event, and whose northern limit was dramatically shifted southwards in 1983, tolerate 20.8 to 25.3°C, whereas five species that have survived in Peru tolerate 25.6 to 28.5°C. Tinocladia falklandica which tolerates 27.8 to 28.1°C but lives only in southernmost South America and Striaria attenuata, which tolerates 31.6 to 31.9°C but occurs at ca. 42°S, are exceptional. Their high temperature tolerance may have no adaptive value in South America. They are restricted to the cold-temperate region due to low temperature requirements for reproduction or for reasons yet unknown. In general, the northern distributional limits of the Phaeophyceae studied along the temperate Pacific coast of South America are reproduction boundaries, except in El Niño years when they are redefined according to the species' upper suvival limits. Temperature tolerance of isolates from northern Chile and Peru agrees well with maximum temperatures reached during the 1983 El Niño.     

The effects of an extraordinary El Niño / La Niña event on the size and growth of the squid<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Loligo opalescens</Emphasis> off Southern California

The population structure of the California market squid Loligo opalescens was studied for the Channel Islands region off Southern California between June 1998 and March 2000. During this time Californian waters were exposed to an extraordinary El Niño event that was possibly the most dramatic change in oceanographic conditions that occurred last century. There was then a rapid transition to record cool La Niña conditions. Statolith increments were used to determine age parameters and increment periodicity was validated for the first 54 days of life. Based on statolith increment counts, the oldest males and females were 257 and 225 days respectively and individuals matured as young as 129 and 137 days respectively. No distinct hatching period was detected. There was a general trend of increasing body size throughout the study period. Squid that hatched and grew through the El Niño were strikingly smaller and had slower growth rates compared to squid that grew through the La Niña. This was related to oceanography and associated productivity. There was a positive correlation between squid mantle length and upwelling index and a negative correlation between mantle length and sea temperature. The 'live-fast die-young' life history strategy of squid makes them ideal candidates for following the effects of the dramatic changes in oceanographic conditions off California. We propose that squid can serve as ecosystem recorders and productivity integrators over time and space and are useful organisms to tie oceanography to biology.     

Experimental effect of cold,La Niña temperatures on the survival of reef fishes from Gorgona Island (eastern Pacific Ocean)

The eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) reefs are affected at irregular times by extremely cold temperatures that occur principally during La Niña events. The effects of these low temperatures on the survival of reef fishes were experimentally assessed by determining the critical thermal minimum (CTM) of 15 reef fish species from Gorgona Island (ETP), and comparing these CTMs with the records of temperature during past La Niña events. Among species, mean CTMs ranged from 10.8°C to 16.3°C, which were lower than the coldest temperature recorded during the last La Niña event (18°C during La Niña 1998-1999). However, the observed ranges of CTM for two species (Thalassoma lucassanum and Eucinostomus gracilis) extended above 18°C. These results suggest that most of the reef fishes we studied are physiologically tolerant to the cold temperatures encountered during La Niña, though decreases in at least two populations may be expected as a result of the mortality of less tolerant individuals. Although tolerant to cold temperatures, reef fish populations may still experience negative changes during La Niña, because other determinants in population maintenance (e.g. reproduction and recruitment) are more temperature sensitive. The effects of other cold phenomena on reef fish survival are also discussed herein.     

Disturbance-Mediated Mammal Persistence and Abundance-Area Relationships in Amazonian Forest Fragments

Abstract:  Few researchers have investigated the synergistic effects of tropical forest fragmentation and disturbance on species persistence and abundance. We examined effects of both forest-patch metrics and forest disturbance in determining richness and abundance of midsized to large-bodied mammal species in a highly fragmented Amazonian forest landscape. Twenty-one forest fragments, ranging from 2 to 14,480 ha, and two continuous forest sites were sampled based on sightings, tracks, line-transect censuses, armadillo burrow censuses, and camera trapping. Patch occupancy of 37 species recorded ranged from 4% to all forest sites surveyed. Forest fragment size was the strongest predictor of species persistence, explaining 90% of the variation in species richness. Information-theoretic analysis confirmed that fragment area was the most important explanatory variable for the overall species richness and abundance of mammal species, followed by surface fires, which affected the abundance of seven species. Large mammal species were typically absent from fragments <100 ha, whereas some ubiquitous species were favored by fragmentation, exhibiting hyperabundance in small patches. Our findings highlight the importance of large (>10,000 ha), relatively undisturbed forest patches to maximize persistence and maintain baseline abundances of Neotropical forest mammal species.     

Long-term trends in the Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population in Australia: the effect of climate change and commercial fisheries

The Australasian gannet (Morus serrator) population has increased considerably over the past century, both in New Zealand and Australia. Since 1980, the population in Australian waters has increased threefold, from 6,600 breeding pairs to approximately 20,000 pairs in 1999-2000, a rate of 6% per year. Reasons for the increase in the Australasian gannet population are poorly understood; here we consider the possible effects of recent fluctuations in climatic and oceanographic conditions, and changes in major local commercial fisheries. A significant trend towards more frequent, and stronger, El Niño Southern Oscillation events, warmer summer sea surface temperatures in Bass Strait, increased annual catches and catch per unit effort in the Victorian pilchard (Sardinops sagax) fishery and potential increased discarding of fisheries bycatch may account for at least some of the observed increase in the Australasian gannet population. The potential interactive effects of these factors on prey distribution and abundance and consequently on gannet numbers are discussed.     

Coral Bleaching and Global Climate Change: Scientific Findings and Policy Recommendations

Abstract: In 1998, tropical sea surface temperatures were the highest on record, topping off a 50-year trend for some tropical oceans. In the same year, coral reefs around the world suffered the most extensive and severe bleaching ( loss of symbiotic algae) and subsequent mortality on record. These events may not be attributable to local stressors or natural variability alone but were likely induced by an underlying global phenomenon. It is probable that anthropogenic global warming has contributed to the extensive coral bleaching that has occurred simultaneously throughout the reef regions of the world. The geographic extent, increasing frequency, and regional severity of mass bleaching events are an apparent result of a steadily rising baseline of marine temperatures, combined with regionally specific El Niño and La Niña events. The repercussions of the 1998 mass bleaching and mortality events will be far-reaching. Human populations dependent on reef services face losses of marine biodiversity, fisheries, and shoreline protection. Coral bleaching events may become more frequent and severe as the climate continues to warm, exposing coral reefs to an increasingly hostile environment. This global threat to corals compounds the effects of more localized anthropogenic factors that already place reefs at risk. Significant attention needs to be given to the monitoring of coral reef ecosystems, research on the projected and realized effects of global climate change, and measures to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Even those reefs with well-enforced legal protection as marine sanctuaries, or those managed for sustainable use, are threatened by global climate change.     

Effects of El Niño on distribution and reproductive performance of Black Brant

Climate in low-latitude wintering areas may influence temperate and high-latitude breeding populations of birds, but demonstrations of such relationships have been rare because of difficulties in linking wintering with breeding populations. We used long-term aerial surveys in Mexican wintering areas and breeding areas in Alaska, USA, to assess numbers of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; hereafter brant) on their principal wintering and breeding area in El Ni?o and non-El Ni?o years. We used Pollock's robust design to directly estimate probability of breeding and apparent annual survival of individually marked brant at the Tutakoke River (TR) colony, Alaska, in each year between 1988 and 2001. Fewer brant wintered in Mexico during every El Ni?o event since 1965. Fewer brant were observed on the principal breeding area following each El Ni?o since surveys began in 1985. Probability of breeding was negatively related to January sea surface temperature along the subtropical coast of North America during the preceding winter. Between 23% (five-year-olds or older) and 30% (three-year-olds) fewer brant nested in 1998 following the strong El Ni?o event in the winter of 1997-1998 than in non-El Ni?o years. This finding is consistent with life history theory, which predicts that longer-lived species preserve adult survival at the expense of reproduction. Oceanographic conditions off Baja California, apparently by their effect on Zostera marina (eelgrass), strongly influence winter distribution of brant geese and their reproduction (but not survival), which in turn affects ecosystem dynamics in Alaska.     

An Age-Structured Demographic Model for the Endangered Stephens' Kangaroo Rat

Effective conservation of endangered species often is hampered by inadequate knowledge of demography. We extracted information on survival and fecundity from an 18-month, live-trapping study of Dipodomys stephensi , and from this we developed an age-structured demographic model to assess population viability. Adult Stephens' kangaroo rats persisted longer than juveniles, and adult females persisted longer than adult males. Disappearance rates were high in the first months after initial capture. Thereafter, the fraction of animals persisting decreased slowly and in an approximately linear fashion on a semilogarithmic scale, suggesting age-independent mortality factors such as predation. Juvenile persistence did not differ substantially between two years of strikingly different rainfall. Onset of breeding followed the start of winter rains. Length of the breeding season, average number of litters per female, and the fraction of first-year females breeding were much greater in the year of higher rainfall. We propose a birth-pulse demographic model for D. stephensi that distinguishes juvenile and adult age classes. Temporal environmental variation can be modeled adequately with a constant survivorship schedule and variable fecundity determined by yearly precipitation. Several issues should be resolved, however, before conservation decisions are based on the model. Better estimates of juvenile survivorship are critical, the quantitative relationship between precipitation and fecundity must be determined, and the potential for density dependence and source-sink population dynamics must be evaluated.     

Survival of microscopic stages of a perennial kelp (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Macrocystis pyrifera</Emphasis>) from the center and the southern extreme of its range in the Northern Hemisphere after exposure to simulated El Niño stress

Many organisms survive stressful conditions through a tolerant life history stage. The life history known as the alternation of generations is typical of temperate kelps, producing diploid macroscopic stages, and both haploid and diploid microscopic stages, with the haploid stages thought to be stress tolerant. The survival of microscopic stages of the giant kelp Macrocystispyrifera during El Niño has been suggested, yet has never been tested. This mechanism could be critical for population persistence, particularly at the southern limit of the range in the Northern Hemisphere, which is greatly impacted by El Niño conditions. The purpose of this study was to determine if microscopic stages of giant kelp could survive and recover from El Niño-type conditions and whether those from a population near its southern limit were more tolerant than a population at the center of its range. Microscopic stages were exposed to a laboratory simulation of potential El Niño conditions (high temperature, with and without light and nitrate) for 8 weeks and then allowed to recover at optimal conditions (low temperature and high nitrate) for 8 weeks, while controls were left at optimal conditions the entire 16 weeks test period. Haploid developmental stages from both populations survived and recovered from stressful conditions with no population level effect, suggesting haploid stress-tolerance may be widespread. The more advanced the developmental stage, and the presence of nitrate, resulted in significantly greater recovery for haploids. Yet, none of these stages were able to go on to produce sporophytes, whereas all controls did. There was a large population-level effect for diploids, however, with only microscopic diploid stages (embryonic sporophytes) from the southern-limit population recovering from El Niño simulated stress, suggesting ecotypic adaptation for microscopic sporophytes. Diploid recovery was significantly greater with light. We propose that the diploid stage is the most likely to survive and recover after El Niño conditions, as it would avoid obligate egg and sperm encounters after the stress period. The survivorship of the microscopic diploid in a seed bank analogue may be how the isolated southern-limit populations are able to recover after mass disappearance during El Niño.     

Reef coral reproduction in the eastern Pacific: Costa Rica, Panamá and Galápagos Islands (Ecuador). IV. Agariciidae, recruitment and recovery of Pavona varians and Pavona sp.a

The reproductive ecology of two eastern Pacific zooxanthellate coral species was examined as part of a continuing series of studies relating bleaching/mortality events caused by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation disturbance, and is described for study sites in Costa Rica, Panamá, and the Galápagos Islands (Ecuador). This study deals with the sibling agariciid species Pavona varians and Pavona sp.a over a 13?yr period (1985 to 1997). Both Pavona species are broadcast-spawners with some gonochoric, but mostly sequential hermaphroditic colonies. Minimum colony sizes (and ages) at first reproduction were 5?cm (5?yr) and 3?cm (2 to 3?yr), respectively, in P. varians and Pavona sp.a. In the Panamá and Galápagos populations, gonochoric colonies spawn eggs or sperm at least monthly. Six fecundity attributes were not significantly different in the two species, but the eggs of P. varians are white to beige and positively buoyant, and those of Pavona sp.a are dark green and neutrally to negatively buoyant. Eggs of both species lack zooxanthellae. Both species are reproductively active year-round, with maximum activity in the dry season in the nonupwelling Gulf of Chiriquí, and in the wet season in the upwelling Gulf of Panamá. Spawning is predominantly during full moon, and possibly also at new moon at most study sites. Spawning in P. varians and Pavona sp.a is 12?h out of phase, with the former species spawning ～1?h before sunrise and the latter about 1?h after sunset. The fecundity of Pavona spp. at Caño and the Galápagos Islands was much greater (19?900 to 27?900 eggs cm^?2?yr^?1) than at all Panamá sites (14?800 to 19?800 eggs cm^?2?yr^?1). Intraspecific crosses in both species resulted in swimming planula larvae after 25 to 36?h. Recruitment of P. varians was highest in Panamá, moderate in Costa Rica, and nil in the Galápagos Islands, matching, respectively, the contributions of P. varians to the pre-1982/1983 El Niño coral-population abundances in these areas. Recruitment success of P. varians at Uva Island was significantly related to maximum monthly positive sea surface-temperature (SST) anomalies that occurred in the year preceding recruitment over the period 1982 to 1996; recruitment failed when SST anomalies exceeded 1.6 to 1.9?C° during the severe ENSO events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998.     

Distribution of squid paralarvae, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Loligo opalescens</Emphasis> (Cephalopoda: Myopsida), in the Southern California Bight in the three years following the 1997–1998 El Niño

Large numbers of paralarvae of the California market squid, Loligo opalescens (10,560 paralarvae from 422 plankton samples), were collected in the Southern California Bight in 1999, 2000, and 2001 during the spawning season. Paralarval abundance increased dramatically (P<0.0041) from 1.5 squid/1,000m³ in 1999 to 77.9 squid/1,000m³ in 2000, and 73.6 squid/1,000m³ in 2001, following the El Niño of 1997-1998. The effects on the squid fishery of the 1997-1998 El Niño were thus extended for two years, with larval abundance reduced until the 1999-2000 spawning season. Paralarvae were abundant close to shore for up to a month after hatching in 2000 (P<0.003), with tidal surface currents adjacent to shore in the Channel Islands strongly affecting paralarval abundance. Tidally reversing currents within 1-3 km of shore created a boundary layer of "sticky water" within which paralarvae remained entrained inshore immediately after hatching. Neritic currents farther from shore dispersed older paralarvae within the Southern California Bight. The greatest change in paralarval abundance, for all transects, was observed within 1 km of the transition between these two flow regimes. Age of paralarvae (from statolith increments) entrained within the Catalina Island boundary layer averaged 13-16 days, but some individuals remained nearshore for up to a month. Paralarvae in the boundary layer occurred above 80 m depth both day and night, and exhibited a statistically significant pattern of vertical diel migration (P<0.01). Paralarvae at sea were disproportionately abundant adjacent to fronts associated with uplifted isotherms.     

Mammal Diversity and Conservation in the Selva Lacandona, Chiapas, Mexico

The Selva Lacandona region of Chiapas, Mexico, has high biodiversity, represents the last large portion of tropical rainforest in México, and faces imminent destruction. Through fieldwork and literature searches I found a total of 112 mammal species (including 17 Middle-American endemics) on the Lacandona's 331,200 ha Montes Azules Biosphere Reserve. This inventory plus those from eight additional Neotropical localities show local mammal species richness in the Neotropics to be in the range of 70–116 species. Richness is primarily correlated with the amount of annual rainfall, but within rainforest areas species richness is probably not correlated with rainfall, latitude, altitude, or area size. Rather, above a certain limit of rainfall and below a critical level of latitude and altitude, mammal species richness seem to reach an asymptotic maximum. Areas covered with tropical rainforest and with a well-known, relatively intact fauna have about 112–116 mammal species. In the Montes Azules Reserve most mammals (57%) are bats. The most heavily occupied feeding guilds are frugivores/herbivores and insectivores/omnivores. Large species and carnivores appear most vulnerable to local extinction. Montes Azules (and thus the Selva Lacandona) is especially noteworthy because (1) it contains a greater proportion of species facing conservation problems than expected from a random draw of Mexican mammals; (2) it is probably the most diverse ecosystem in Mexico; (3) many species sustain their only Mexican populations in this area; and (4) it is the largest remnant of tropical rainforest in Mexico and is part of the largest expanse of that vegetation type in Central America.     

Ecological drivers of group living in two populations of the communally rearing rodent, Octodon degus

Intraspecific variation in sociality is thought to reflect a trade-off between current fitness benefits and costs that emerge from individuals' decision to join or leave groups. Since those benefits and costs may be influenced by ecological conditions, ecological variation remains a major, ultimate cause of intraspecific variation in sociality. Intraspecific comparisons of mammalian sociality across populations facing different environmental conditions have not provided a consistent relationship between ecological variation and group-living. Thus, we studied two populations of the communally rearing rodent Octodon degus to determine how co-variation between sociality and ecology supports alternative ecological causes of group living. In particular, we examined how variables linked to predation risk, thermal conditions, burrowing costs, and food availability predicted temporal and population variation in sociality. Our study revealed population and temporal variation in total group size and group composition that covaried with population and yearly differences in ecology. In particular, predation risk and burrowing costs are supported as drivers of this social variation in degus. Thermal differences, food quantity and quality were not significant predictors of social group size. In contrast to between populations, social variation within populations was largely uncoupled from ecological differences.     

Insularization of Tanzanian Parks and the Local Extinction of Large Mammals

Island biogeography theory predicts that species will be lost on habitat "islands" created by the fragmentation of continental regions. Many Tanzanian parks are rapidly becoming habitat islands as a result of human settlement, agricultural development, and the active elimination of wildlife on adjacent lands. The rate of extinction of mammals in six Tanzanian parks over the last 35–83 years is significantly and inversely related to park area, suggesting that increasing insularization of the parks has been an important contributory factor in large mammal extinctions. I compared observed patterns of persistence of mammals in Tanzanian parks to predictions derived from earlier extinction models. The predictions of the S ¹ models of Soulé et al. (1979) and Burkey (1994) and the S ² and S ³ models of Soulé et al. (1979) match very closely the observed pattern of persistence of mammals in Tanzanian parks. The loss of mammal species will probably continue, particularly in the smaller parks. Establishment of wildlife corridors linking the parks in northern Tanzania could help to reduce the potential loss of species in the future.     

Multidimensional trade-offs in species responses to disturbance: implications for diversity in a subtropical forest

Species employ diverse strategies to cope with natural disturbance, but the importance of these strategies for maintaining tree species diversity in forests has been debated. Mechanisms that have the potential to promote tree species coexistence in the context of repeated disturbance include life history trade-offs in colonization and competitive ability or in species' ability to survive at low resource conditions and exploit the temporary resource-rich conditions often generated in the wake of disturbance (successional niche). Quantifying these trade-offs requires long-term forest monitoring and modeling. We developed a hierarchical Bayes model to investigate the strategies tree species employ to withstand and recover from hurricane disturbance and the life history trade-offs that may facilitate species coexistence in forests subject to repeated hurricane disturbance. Unlike previous approaches, our model accommodates temporal variation in process error and observations from multiple sources. We parameterized the model using growth and mortality data from four censuses of a 16-ha plot taken every five years (1990-2005), together with damage data collected after two hurricanes and annual seed production data (1992-2005). Species' susceptibilities to hurricane damage as reflected by changes in diameter growth and fecundity immediately following a storm were weak, highly variable, and unpredictable using traditional life history groupings. The lower crowding conditions (e.g., high light) generated in the wake of storms, however, led to greater gains in growth and fecundity for pioneer and secondary-forest species than for shade-tolerant species, in accordance with expectation of life history. We found moderate trade-offs between survival in high crowding conditions, a metric of competitive ability, and long-distance colonization. We also uncovered a strong trade-off between mean species fecundity in low crowding conditions, a metric of recovery potential, and competitive ability. Trade-offs in competitive and colonization ability, in addition to successional niche processes, are likely to contribute to species persistence in these hurricane-impacted forests. The strategies species employ to cope with hurricane damage depend on the degree to which species rely on sprouting, repair of adult damage, changes in demographic rates in response to enhanced resource availability after storms, or long-distance dispersal as recovery mechanisms.     

A population viability analysis for the Island Fox on Santa Catalina Island,California

The island fox (Urocyon littoralis) on Santa Catalina Island is among the most imperiled species on the Channel Islands due to a recent outbreak of canine distemper virus (CDV). The western subpopulation, which was not exposed to CDV, is a crucial element in the recovery of foxes by providing a source of animals for translocation and captive breeding. Using the program VORTEX, we developed a population viability analysis for the Santa Catalina Island fox to (1) address the likelihood of population persistence, (2) estimate the current susceptibility of the population to catastrophic events, and (3) evaluate the efficacy of current restoration strategies of releasing captive bred foxes and transplanting wild animals. Overall, we found the population to be susceptible to catastrophic events; a 50% increase in mortality every 20 years was sufficient to elevate the extinction risk above 5%. Current management activities entail the transplanting of 12 juvenile foxes annually, which may reduce the viability of the western subpopulation. A minimum population size of at least 150 foxes should be maintained in each subpopulation to reduce the risk of extinction due to demographic stochasticity. Releases of translocated and captive bred animals affect the speed of recovery on the eastern half of Catalina Island, but not the probability of extinction, which is near zero under current conditions. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for demographic parameters by incrementally varying survival, fecundity and density-dependence parameters, while holding all other parameters constant. Sensitivity analyses identified mortality and mean litter size as the most sensitive parameters, while the implementation of density-dependence and environmental variation of model parameters did not seem to affect population performance. We conclude that the population of island foxes on Santa Catalina is currently at a critically low population level, but recovery of the species appears possible.