Between migration load and evolutionary rescue: dispersal,adaptation and the response of spatially structured populations to environmental change

The evolutionary potential of populations is mainly determined by population size and available genetic variance. However, the adaptability of spatially structured populations may also be affected by dispersal: positively by spreading beneficial mutations across sub-populations, but negatively by moving locally adapted alleles between demes. We develop an individual-based, two-patch, allelic model to investigate the balance between these opposing effects on a population''s evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Individual fitness is controlled by two polygenic traits coding for local adaptation either to the environment or to climate. Under conditions of selection that favour the evolution of a generalist phenotype (i.e. weak divergent selection between patches) dispersal has an overall positive effect on the persistence of the population. However, when selection favours locally adapted specialists, the beneficial effects of dispersal outweigh the associated increase in maladaptation for a narrow range of parameter space only (intermediate selection strength and low linkage among loci), where the spread of beneficial climate alleles is not strongly hampered by selection against non-specialists. Given that local selection across heterogeneous and fragmented landscapes is common, the complex effect of dispersal that we describe will play an important role in determining the evolutionary dynamics of many species under rapidly changing climate.     

Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change

Ongoing climate change is assumed to be exceptional because of its unprecedented velocity. However, new geophysical research suggests that dramatic climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene occurred extremely rapid, over just a few years. These abrupt climatic changes may have been even faster than contemporary ones, but relatively few continent‐wide extinctions of species have been documented for these periods. This raises questions about the ability of extant species to adapt to ongoing climate change. We propose that the advances in geophysical research challenge current views about species' ability to cope with climate change, and that lessons must be learned for modelling future impacts of climate change on species.     

Lack of genetic structure among ecologically adapted populations of an Australian rainforest Drosophila species as indicated by microsatellite markers and mitochondrial DNA sequences

Although fragmented rainforest environments represent hotspots for invertebrate biodiversity, few genetic studies have been conducted on rainforest invertebrates. Thus, it is not known if invertebrate species in rainforests are highly genetically fragmented, with the potential for populations to show divergent selection responses, or if there are low levels of gene flow sufficient to maintain genetic homogeneity among fragmented populations. Here we use microsatellite markers and DNA sequences from the mitochondrial ND5 locus to investigate genetic differences among Drosophila birchii populations from tropical rainforests in Queensland, Australia. As found in a previous study, mitochondrial DNA diversity was low with no evidence for population differentiation among rainforest fragments. The pattern of mitochondrial haplotype variation was consistent with D. birchii having undergone substantial past population growth. Levels of nuclear genetic variation were high in all populations while F(ST) values were very low, even for flies from geographically isolated areas of rainforest. No significant differentiation was observed between populations on either side of the Burdekin Gap (a long-term dry corridor), although there was evidence for higher gene diversity in low-latitude populations. Spatial autocorrelation coefficients were low and did not differ significantly from random, except for one locus which revealed a clinal-like pattern. Comparisons of microsatellite differentiation contrasted with previously established clinal patterns in quantitative traits in D. birchii, and indicate that the patterns in quantitative traits are likely to be due to selection. These results suggest moderate gene flow in D. birchii over large distances. Limited population structure in this species appears to be due to recent range expansions or cycles of local extinctions followed by recolonizations/expansions. Nevertheless, patterns of local adaptation have developed in D. birchii that may result in populations showing different selection responses when faced with environmental change.     

Impact of climate change and human‐mediated introgression on southern European Atlantic salmon populations

This study focuses on temporal changes in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations from the vulnerable periphery of the species range (northern Spain). Using microsatellite markers to assess population structuring and introgression of exogenous genes in four different temporal samples collected across 20 years, we have determined the relative weights of climate and stocking practices in shaping contemporary regional population genetic patterns. Climate, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, was identified as the main factor for determining the level of population genetic differentiation. Populations within the region have become homogenized through gene flow enhanced by straying of adult salmon from natal rivers and subsequent interchange of genes among rivers due to warmer temperatures. At the same time, and in line with documented changes in stock transfer strategies, evidence of genetic introgression from past stock transfers has decreased throughout the study period, becoming a secondary factor in erasing population structuring. The ability to disentangle the effects of climatic changes and anthropogenic factors (fisheries management practices) is essential for effective long‐term conservation of this iconic species. We emphasize the importance of evaluating all factors which may be linked to stocking practices in vulnerable species, particularly those sensitive to climate change.     

Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean

The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.     

Effects of polymorphism for locally adapted genes on rates of neutral introgression in structured populations

Adaptation to local conditions within demes balanced by migration can maintain polymorphisms for variants that reduce fitness in certain ecological contexts. Here, we address the effects of such polymorphisms on the rate of introgression of neutral marker genes, possibly genetically linked to targets of selection. Barriers to neutral gene flow are expected to increase with linkage to targets of local selection and with differences between demes in the frequencies of locally adapted alleles. This expectation is borne out under purifying and disruptive selection, regimes that promote monomorphism within demes. In contrast, overdominance within demes induces minimal barriers to neutral introgression even in the face of very large differences between demes in the frequencies of locally adapted alleles. Further, segregation distortion, a phenomenon observed in a number of interspecific hybrids, can in fact promote transmission by migrants to future generations at rates exceeding those of residents.     

Nonneutral admixture of immigrant genotypes in African Drosophila melanogaster populations from Zimbabwe

Drosophila melanogaster originated in Africa and colonized the rest of the world only recently (approximately 10,000 to 15,000 years ago). Using 151 microsatellite loci, we investigated patterns of gene flow between African D. melanogaster populations representing presumptive ancestral variation and recently colonized European populations. Although we detected almost no evidence for alleles of non-African ancestry in a rural D. melanogaster population from Zimbabwe, an urban population from Zimbabwe showed evidence for admixture. Interestingly, the degree of admixture differed among chromosomes. X chromosomes of both rural and urban populations showed almost no non-African ancestry, but the third chromosome in the urban population showed up to 70% of non-African alleles. When chromosomes were broken into contingent microsatellite blocks, even higher estimates of admixture and significant heterogeneity in admixture was observed among these blocks. The discrepancy between the X chromosome and the third chromosome is not consistent with a neutral admixture hypothesis. The higher number of European alleles on the third chromosome could be due to stronger selection against foreign alleles on the X chromosome or to more introgression of (beneficial) alleles on the third chromosome.     

Asymmetric gene flow and the evolutionary maintenance of genetic diversity in small,peripheral Atlantic salmon populations

Small populations may be expected to harbour less genetic variation than large populations, but the relation between census size (N), effective population size (N _e), and genetic diversity is not well understood. We compared microsatellite variation in four small peripheral Atlantic salmon populations from the Iberian peninsula and three larger populations from Scotland to test whether genetic diversity was related to population size. We also examined the historical decline of one Iberian population over a 50-year period using archival scales in order to test whether a marked reduction in abundance was accompanied by a decrease in genetic diversity. Estimates of effective population size (N _e) calculated by three temporal methods were consistently low in Iberian populations, ranging from 12 to 31 individuals per generation considering migration, and from 38 to 175 individuals per generation if they were regarded as closed populations. Corresponding N _e/N ratios varied from 0.02 to 0.04 assuming migration (mean=0.03) and from 0.04 to 0.18 (mean=0.10) assuming closed populations. Population bottlenecks, inferred from the excess of heterozygosity in relation to allelic diversity, were detected in all four Iberian populations, particularly in those year classes derived from a smaller number of returning adults. However, despite their small size and declining status, Iberian populations continue to display relatively high levels of heterozygosity and allelic richness, similar to those found in larger Scottish populations. Furthermore, in the R. Asón no evidence was found for a historical loss of genetic diversity despite a marked decline in abundance during the last five decades. Thus, our results point to two familiar paradigms in salmonid conservation: (1)␣endangered populations can maintain relatively high levels of genetic variation despite their small size, and (2) marked population declines may not necessarily result in a significant loss of genetic diversity. Although there are several explanations for such results, microsatellite data and physical tagging suggest that high levels of dispersal and asymmetric gene flow have probably helped to maintain genetic diversity in these peripheral populations, and thus to avoid the negative consequences of inbreeding.     

Will northern fish populations be in hot water because of climate change?

Predicted increases in water temperature in response to climate change will have large implications for aquatic ecosystems, such as altering thermal habitat and potential range expansion of fish species. Warmwater fish species, such as smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu , may have access to additional favourable thermal habitat under increased surface-water temperatures, thereby shifting the northern limit of the distribution of the species further north in Canada and potentially negatively impacting native fish communities. We assembled a database of summer surface-water temperatures for over 13 000 lakes across Canada. The database consists of lakes with a variety of physical, chemical and biological properties. We used general linear models to develop a nation-wide maximum lake surface-water temperature model. The model was extended to predict surface-water temperatures suitable to smallmouth bass and under climate-change scenarios. Air temperature, latitude, longitude and sampling time were good predictors of present-day maximum surface-water temperature. We predicted lake surface-water temperatures for July 2100 using three climate-change scenarios. Water temperatures were predicted to increase by as much as 18 °C by 2100, with the greatest increase in northern Canada. Lakes with maximum surface-water temperatures suitable for smallmouth bass populations were spatially identified. Under several climate-change scenarios, we were able to identify lakes that will contain suitable thermal habitat and, therefore, are vulnerable to invasion by smallmouth bass in 2100. This included lakes in the Arctic that were predicted to have suitable thermal habitat by 2100.     

Joint estimation of contemporary seed and pollen dispersal rates among plant populations

There are few statistical methods for estimating contemporary dispersal among plant populations. A maximum-likelihood procedure is introduced here that uses pre- and post-dispersal population samples of biparentally inherited genetic markers to jointly estimate contemporary seed and pollen immigration rates from a set of discrete external sources into a target population. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that accurate estimates and reliable confidence intervals can be obtained using this method for both pollen and seed migration rates at modest sample sizes (100 parents/population and 100 offspring) when population differentiation is moderate (F(ST) ≥ 0.1), or by increasing pre-dispersal samples (to about 500 parents/population) when genetic divergence is weak (F(ST) = 0.01). The method exhibited low sensitivity to the number of source populations and achieved good accuracy at affordable genetic resolution (10 loci with 10 equifrequent alleles each). Unsampled source populations introduced positive biases in migration rate estimates from sampled sources, although they were minor when the proportion of immigration from the latter was comparatively low. A practical application of the method to a metapopulation of the Australian resprouter shrub Banksia attenuata revealed comparable levels of directional seed and pollen migration among dune groups, and the estimate of seed dispersal was higher than a previous estimate based on conservative assignment tests. The method should be of interest to researchers and managers assessing broad-scale nonequilibrium seed and pollen gene flow dynamics in plants.     

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the evolutionary adaptations of polar fish

The recognition of the important role of the polar habitats in global climate changes has awakened great interest in the evolutionary biology of the organisms that live there, as well as the increasing threat of loss of biological diversity and depletion of marine fisheries. These organisms are exposed to strong environmental constraints, and it is important to understand how they have adapted to cope with these challenges and to what extent adaptations may be upset by current climate changes. Adaptations of the dominant group of Antarctic fish, the suborder Notothenioidei, have been thoroughly investigated by several teams. Considering the amount of information available on cold adaptation, the study of fish adapted to the extreme conditions of the polar seas will allow us to gain invaluable clues on the development, impact and consequences of climate and anthropogenic challenges, with powerful implications for the future of the Earth.     

Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change

Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid's paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid's paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species' rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary 'super-species' that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.     

The color of noise and the evolution of dispersal

The process of dispersal is vital for the long-term persistence of all species and hence is a ubiquitous characteristic of living organisms. A present challenge is to increase our understanding of the factors that govern the dispersal rate of individuals. Here I extend previous work by incorporating both spatial and temporal heterogeneity in terms of patch quality into a spatially explicit lattice model. The spatial heterogeneity is modeled as a two-dimensional fractal landscape, while temporal heterogeneity is included by using one-dimensional noise. It was found that the color of both the spatial and temporal variability influences the rate of dispersal selected as reddening of the temporal noise leads to a reduction in dispersal, while reddening of spatial variability results in an increase in the dispersal rate. These results demonstrate that the color of environmental noise should be considered in future studies looking at the evolution of life history characteristics.     

Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in different regional food webs, there is the potential to make predictions about future change scenarios.     

Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change

Estimates of species extinction risk under climate change are generally based on differences in present and future climatically suitable areas. However, the locations of potentially suitable future environments (affecting establishment success), and the degree of climatic suitability in already occupied and new locations (affecting population viability) may be equally important determinants of risk. A species considered to be at low risk because its future distribution is predicted to be large, may actually be at high risk if these areas are out of reach, given the species' dispersal and migration rates or if all future suitable locations are only marginally suitable and the species is unlikely to build viable populations in competition with other species. Using bioclimatic models of 17 representative European woody species, we expand on current ways of risk assessment and suggest additional measures based on (a) the distance between presently occupied areas and areas predicted to be climatically suitable in the future and (b) the degree of change in climatic suitability in presently occupied and unoccupied locations. Species of boreal and temperate deciduous forests are predicted to face higher risk from loss of climatically suitable area than species from warmer and drier parts of Europe by 2095 using both the moderate B1 and the severe A1FI emission scenario. However, the average distance from currently occupied locations to areas predicted suitable in the future is generally shorter for boreal species than for southern species. Areas currently occupied will become more suitable for boreal and temperate species than for Mediterranean species whereas new suitable areas outside a species' current range are expected to show greater increases in suitability for Mediterranean species than for boreal and temperate species. Such additional risk measures can be easily derived and should give a more comprehensive picture of the risk species are likely to face under climate change.     

Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change

Few studies have examined how life history traits and the climate envelope influence the ability of species to respond to climate change and habitat degradation. In this study, we test whether 18 species-specific variables, related to the climate envelope, ecological envelope and life history, could predict recent population trends (over 17 years) of 71 common breeding bird species in France. Habitat specialists were declining at a much higher rate than generalists, a sign that habitat quality is decreasing globally. The lower the thermal maximum (temperature at the hot edge of the climate envelope), the more negative are the population trends and the less tolerant these species are climate warming, regardless of the thermal range over which these species occur. The life history trait 'the number of broods per year' was positively related to recent trends, suggesting that single-brooded species might be more sensitive to advances in food peak due to climate change, as it increases the risk of mistiming their single-breeding event. Annual fecundity explained long-term declines, as it is a good proxy for most other demographic rates, with shorter-lived species being more sensitive to global change: individuals of species with higher fecundity might have too short a life to learn to adapt to directional changes in their environment. Finally, there was evidence that natal dispersal was a predictor of recent trends, with species with high natal dispersal experiencing smaller population declines than species with low natal dispersal. This is expected if the higher the natal dispersal, the larger the ability to shift spatially when facing changes in local habitat or climate, in order to track optimal conditions and adapt to global change. Identifying decline-promoting factors allow us to infer mechanisms responsible for observed declines in wild bird populations facing global change, and by doing so allow for a more pre-emptive approach to conservation planning.