有限元方法在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展

有限元方法的基本思想是将连续的求解区域离散为一组有限个、 且按一定方式相互联结在一起的单元的组合体。 有限元方法是目前应用最为广泛的数值模拟方法, 由于能够将复杂介质的力学本构关系及边界条件问题转化成为常规问题的计算程序, 所以越来越多的地震学者将其应用于地震成因与前兆机理研究中。 该文着重介绍了有限元数值分析方法及其模拟在地震孕育过程与前兆机理研究中的应用进展, 并提出开展小尺度规模如岩石中矿物颗粒之间的力学行为的有限元模拟研究等几点建议。     

数字前兆观测地震异常短临特征的初步研究

以高频序列分析处理方法,对2001年以来首都圈及外围部分地区的数字化前兆观测资料进行处理分析。所采用的数字前兆分析方法主要有两种：①原始图像变化形态研究,观察分析图像的突变、潮汐畸变、振荡、脉冲等微动态变化特征;②通过滤波等方法研究提取数字前兆资料的高频信息在地震前后的变化特征。并结合首都圈地区ML4．5以上地震,对数字化前兆的短临特征进行研究。     

Research on the fuzzy relationship between the precursory anomalous elements and earthquake elements

IntroductionThepreparationandoccurrenceofearthquakesareofthecomplicatednaturewithsomephysicalorchemicalphenomena,socalledasearthquakeprecursorswhichmightbeexpectedtobeusedtopredictearthquake,speciallystrongearthquake.Intheresearchofearthquakeprediction,however,theproblemthathowtheprecursorscouldbeidentifiedtoattributetoanearthquakehasbeenstillunsolved.AsthefirststeptheresearchoftherelationbetWeentheprecursoryinformatiollandearthquakeelements(magnitude,space,andoccurrencetime)needtobeconducted.…     

Reverse tracing of precursors and earthquake precursors in Taiwan

In this paper, we investigate the precursors of large earthquakes in the eastern region of Taiwan by means of the reverse tracing of precursors. We discuss the parameters which are suitable for the seismic chains and intermedi- ate-term patterns in this region and obtain the threshold of the patterns. Applying the linear discriminate method to the intermediate-term patterns of seismic chains, we present an approach for exploring the precursors of large earthquakes. The results show that this method can reduce the false alarm rate for large earthquakes in this region, and the reverse tracing of precursors can be applied to the eastern region of Taiwan.     

礼县震群与岷县-临潭-卓尼县5.2级地震

对1970年以来甘肃地区发生的13次小震群进行分析研究,发现它们均不同程度的表现出前兆性震群特征,其中10次震群之后在震中或其附近地区发生了中强以上地震。在深入研究这些震群的时、空、强特征和性质的基础上,对甘肃礼县震群进行了重点研究,该震群的h、k、μ、ρ值均为异常,在震群结束2月后就发生了岷县-临潭-卓尼县5．2级地震。     

岩石圈地震前兆异常机制

对于电磁卫星所观测到的地震震前电磁异常现象的机制,即电磁异常如何从岩石圈穿过大气层耦合到电离层及其以上空间,目前仍是尚未解决的问题.本文主要介绍目前大量有关地震岩石圈异常的机制研究,力图从卫星地震电磁异常的源头—岩石圈地震来获得相关认识.岩石圈地震前兆异常包括：地表变形、水位变化、悬浮薄雾、超低频（ULF）电磁异常、山脊或山顶发光闪电、卫星红外图片大范围数度温度异常、磁场高于地磁偶极场的0.5%、电离层等离子体密度变化、动物奇异行为等.人们提出了许多试图解释各种异常现象的假说,如热耦合假说、气泡运移假说、边界位错充电假说、离子空穴运移假说等.本文希望通过对以上各种假说提出的基础、物理机理以及异常现象解释的探讨,促进对岩石圈地震前兆异常现象机理认识,从而为地震电磁异常的正确认识提供更有力的帮助.     

The typical seismic behavior in the vicinity of a large earthquake

The Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog (GCMT) was used to construct the spatio-temporal generalized vicinity of a large earthquake (GVLE) and to investigate the behavior of seismicity in GVLE. The vicinity is made of earthquakes falling into the zone of influence of a large number (100, 300, or 1000) of largest earthquakes. The GVLE construction aims at enlarging the available statistics, diminishing a strong random component, and revealing typical features of pre- and post-shock seismic activity in more detail. As a result of the GVLE construction, the character of fore- and aftershock cascades was examined in more detail than was possible without of the use of the GVLE approach. As well, several anomalies in the behavior exhibited by a variety of earthquake parameters were identified. The amplitudes of all these anomalies increase with the approaching time of the generalized large earthquake (GLE) as the logarithm of the time interval from the GLE occurrence. Most of the discussed anomalies agree with common features well expected in the evolution of instability. In addition to these common type precursors, one earthquake-specific precursor was found. The decrease in mean earthquake depth presumably occurring in a smaller GVLE probably provides evidence of a deep fluid being involved in the process. The typical features in the evolution of shear instability as revealed in GVLE agree with results obtained in laboratory studies of acoustic emission (AE). The majority of the anomalies in earthquake parameters appear to have a secondary character, largely connected with an increase in mean magnitude and decreasing fraction of moderate size events (mw5.0–6.0) in the immediate GLE vicinity. This deficit of moderate size events could hardly be caused entirely by their incomplete reporting and can presumably reflect some features in the evolution of seismic instability.     

2012年4月11日苏门答腊Ms8.6地震前电离层TEC异常变化

基于IGS提供的GPS TEC资料和中国地壳运动观测网络提供的GPS数据解算的单站VTEC数据,采用统计分析处理方法,对2012年4月11日苏门答腊北部Ms8.6地震震前电离层TEC资料进行处理分析,结果表明:在震前5-6天以及地震当天,震中上空附近出现显著的电离层TEC异常扰动,异常形态有正有负,表现为先异常减小后异常增大最后变小,异常增大主要发生在下午至黄昏时段,即12:00-16:00 LT,持续时间约4小时.排除太阳活动和地磁扰动的影响后,4月5日出现的电离层TEC异常增大及呈现出共轭结构以及地震当天出现的异常扰动,可能与此次地震有关.     

Study of techniques of identifying the earthquake precursory anomalies in terms of mathematical modeling

IntroductionGenerallyspeaking,thedataofprecursorymonitoringwhichmightbeassociatedwiththepreparationofthefutureearthquakes,couldberepresentedbyatimeseries.There,however,wouldbenotonlyanomalouschangesassociatedwiththeearthquakeoccurrences,butalsosomechangeswhichwouldberelatedtosourcesotherthantheearthquakepreparation,eitherknownorunknowntotheinvestigatorsandbecalledas(thechangesfromnon-earthquakeeffects(,inthetimeseries,inpractice,tillnow.ItistosaythatthetimeseriesF(t)showingthetemporalchangesof…     

文安地震前后的转换函数参数变化分析

为了提取地震前后的磁场异常变化,本文用转换函数方法分析了文安地震前后,距离震中分别为52km和298km的静海地磁台和泰安地磁台不同周期的转换函数参数随时间的变化过程,发现静海地磁台转换函数参数的数据异常点随着时间的向后推移从短周期向比较长的周期迁移,而泰安地磁台的转换函数参数没有出现类似现象。     

2017年琉球群岛6级地震前佘山地震台应变观测异常

2017年5月9日琉球群岛6级地震发生前,佘山地震基准台YRY-4型钻孔应变仪的2个观测分量S₂、S₄,在M₂波潮汐因子分析中表现出明显的趋势异常。通过实地调查排除环境、气象干扰,对应变与气压观测曲线的M₂波潮汐因子γ值进行对比及量化分析,认为应变分量观测异常非环境干扰造成,应与琉球群岛6级地震发生有关。     

应力调制在华东地区地震预报中的应用

应用应力调制图像法,对上海地区1970～2007年以来的18次ML≥5．0地震进行了检验。结果显示,有15次地震的震前出现了Se值异常单元,虚报地震9次,漏报3次。     

2009年7月9日云南姚安6.0级地震预测回顾

基于2009年7月9日姚安6.0级地震发生之前形变观测前兆异常,给出该地震三要素,总结其前兆异常特点,反思运用单台前兆观测资料预报地震过程中存在的问题,为今后的地震预测积累经验.     

汶川8.0级大地震前电磁扰动异常变化特征初步研究

利用电磁波扰动理论,研究汶川5·12大地震前,金河、剑阁、二砂3个台站的电磁波异常变化特征。结果表明:①震前3个台站均出现电磁扰动异常,以金河、剑阁地震台显著;②电磁扰动前兆异常在时间进程上有明显的阶段性变化;③随距震中距半径的增大,电磁扰动值逐步衰减。     

地震频次的Hurst指数在地震预报中的应用

引用Hurst指数，对华北地区18次中强地震前地震活动频次的Hurst指数进行了分析和研究，总结出了中强地震前地震活动频次的Hurst指数H值的异常主化特征，同时，把该方法应用到了河南及邻区中等地震预报研究中，制定了预报规则，进行了预测内符检验和预报评分，结果表明，该方法是一种有效的中短期地震预报方法，具有推广应用价值。     

2002年新疆乌恰5.7级地震前地震活动异常分析

分析了乌恰5．7级地震前喀什-乌恰地区的地震活动情况和地震学参数异常过程。研究认为，5．7级地震发生在1996年9月以来形成的喀什西南4．0级以上地震空区的边缘，此次地震的活动间隔时间为1980年以来之最；震前有6项地震学参数空间扫描和5项地震学参数时间进程存在中短期异常；震前3级地震活动强度有多次起伏。     

The study of barrier fracture in relation to earthquake and rockburst prediction

One of the simplest models of earthquakes and rockbursts was studied in laboratory conditions in which the fracture was initiated in a barrier between two preexisting faults. The treated models were built of concrete; during the construction of the models, the stress concentrators were inserted inside the models. This arrangement enabled the shear displacement to occur during uniaxial loading of the model. The tests were made on the series of models, the sizes of which were mutually varying more than one order. In the process of the barrier fracture propagation, the following were investigated: the time and space changes of local deformations as well as the acoustic emission, velocities and amplitudes of elastic waves, electrical conductivity and proper electro-induction. The process of barrier fracturing can be understood in three fundamental stages. In the course of the first stage, the density of small tensile cracks increases considerably, while the volume in which they exist is gradually enlarged. In the second stage, as the result, of these cracks coupling, longer shear cracks are created. During the coupling, due to the development of numerous regions of unstable deformation, the zones of nonequal rigidity arise in the treated medium, distributed within it in a mosaic-like pattern. In the third stage, the main fracture is prepared and formed with simultaneous unloading of the surrounding medium. The process of crack forming is gradually localized into a more narrow zone.The second and third stages of fracture forming are reflected in variations of all the above-mentioned physical parameters which are therefore identified as the precursors of the main fracture. By means of the series of precursors it is possible to find the reliable prediction of a barrier fracture.     

汶川8．0级地震前电磁辐射异常变化特征初步研究

汶川8．0级地震前,距离震中只有35km的金河电磁波台记录到了宝贵的电磁扰动信息。本文分析了汶川5．12大地震前后该台的电磁波异常变化特征,表明：①强震前确实有电磁辐射异常存在,震前存在丰富的电磁扰动信息;②电磁扰动前兆异常在时间进程上有明显的阶段性变化特征,这可能是地震孕育不同阶段特征的反映。