利用F10.7和Mg II构建太阳极紫外辐射长时间序列

利用SOHO/SEM在1996—2008年的太阳EUV观测数据,比较和评估F10.7和Mg II作为EUV代理参数的代表性,不能支持Viereck等关于Mg II是比F10.7更好的代理参数的结论.通过比较对两种参数的多种回归计算结果,确立双因子极大似然估计方法构建EUV计算模式,通过模型计算结果与SEM观测数据比较,表明该模型能够很好地重建EUV数据系列.利用该模式,构建了1978年11月以来的太阳极紫外辐射数据序列.     

Input data selection for solar radiation estimation

Model input data selection is a complicated process, especially for non‐linear dynamic systems. The questions on which inputs should be used and how long the training data should be for model development have been hard to solve in practice. Despite the importance of this subject, there have been insufficient reports in the published literature about inter‐comparison between different model input data selection techniques. In this study, several methods (i.e. the Gamma test, entropy theory, AIC (Akaike's information criterion)/BIC (Bayesian information criterion) have been explored with the aid of non‐linear models of LLR (local linear regression) and ANN (artificial neural networks). The methodology is tested in estimation of solar radiation in the Brue Catchment of England. It has been found that the conventional model selection tools such as AIC/BIC failed to demonstrate their functionality. Although the entropy theory is quite powerful and efficient to compute, it failed to pick up the best input combinations. On the other hand, it is very encouraging to find that the new Gamma test was able to choose the best input selection. However, it is surprising to note that the Gamma test significantly underestimated the required training data while the entropy theory did a better job in this aspect. This is the first study to compare the performance of those techniques for model input selections and still there are many unsolved puzzles. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model data selection using gamma test for daily solar radiation estimation

Hydrological modelling is a complicated procedure and there are many tough questions facing all modellers: what input data should be used? how much data is required? and what model should be used? In this paper, the gamma test (GT) has been used for the first time in modelling one of the key hydrological components: solar radiation. The study aimed to resolve the questions about the relative importance of input variables and to determine the optimum number of data points required to construct a reliable smooth model. The proposed methodology has been studied through the estimation of daily solar radiation in the Brue Catchment, the UK. The relationship between input and output in the meteorological data sets was achieved through error variance estimation before the modelling using the GT. This work has demonstrated how the GT helps model development in nonlinear modelling techniques such as local linear regression (LLR) and artificial neural networks (ANN). It was found that the GT provided very useful information for input data selection and subsequent model development. The study has wider implications for various hydrological modelling practices and suggests further exploration of this technique for improving informed data and model selection, which has been a difficult field in hydrology in past decades. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationship between solar radiation and dimethylsulfide concentrations using in situ data for the pristine region of the southern hemisphere

The biological processes have been proposed as climate variability contributors. Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is the main biogenic sulfur compound in the atmosphere; it is mainly produced by the marine biosphere and plays an important role in the atmospheric sulfur cycle. Currently it is accepted that terrestrial biota not only adapts to environmental conditions but also influences them through regulations of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. In the present study we used a wavelet method to investigate the relationship between DMS, Low cloud cover (LCC), Ultraviolet Radiation A (UVA), Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the so called pristine zone of the Southern Hemisphere. We found that the series analyzed have different periodicities which can be associated with large scale climatic phenomena such as El Niño (ENSO) or the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and/or to solar activity. Our results show an intermittent but sustained DMS-SST correlation and a DMSUVA anti correlation; but DMS-TSI and DMS-LCC show nonlinear relationships. The time-span of the series allow us to study only periodicities shorter than 11 years, then we limit our analysis to the possibility that solar radiation influences the Earth climate in periods shorter than the 11-year solar cycle. Our results also suggest a positive feedback interaction between DMS and solar radiation.     

太湖水面太阳辐射中的光合有效成份

本文利用睛空大气辐射传输分光参数化模式,讨论了到达太湖水面太阳总辐射中光合有效成分所占比例的日变化状况。辐射传输计算所涉及的气象参数采用无锡地区气象站资料;水体反射仅考虑有风浪状况下的水平Fresnel反射。两次湖面实测太阳总辐射日变化曲线与计算值对比分析表明,计算结果基本上能反映晴空条件下太湖水面辐射状况。本文结果对利用总辐射值估算水体生态研究中感兴趣的光合有效成份有一定参考价值。     

Sensitivity of the surface temperature to changes in total solar irradiance calculated with the WRF model

The temperature sensitivity of the WRF model to changes in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). The simulations were performed for a region centered over the North Atlantic Ocean, including portions of Eastern North America, Western Europe and Northwest Africa. Four simulations were run with different TSI values. Also, a fifth simulation was performed in which we varied the initial atmospheric conditions, in order to compare the effect on the temperature of both, changes in the TSI and initial atmospheric conditions. Comparing temperature monthly averages we found that changes in TSI and in the initial conditions have a measurable impact on temperature in the region of study. The sensitivity of the model using non-dimensional parameters was also estimated. The numerical experiments show some features that might allow to distinguish between the effects on the temperature due to changes in TSI from those caused by initial conditions. However, TSI changes are of the same order of magnitude than those of disturbances in the initial conditions. We also found that the mean monthly values of temperature over the full grid, did not present significant variations due to changes of either initial conditions or TSI.     

Near‐surface temperatures and heat balance of bare outcrops exposed to solar radiation

Subsurface temperatures in rocks naturally fluctuate under the influence of local meteorological conditions. These fluctuations play a role in mechanical weathering, thus creating the environmental conditions conducive to natural hazards such as rockfalls and providing important sediment source terms for landscape evolution. However, the physics that control heat penetration into rocks are not fully understood, which makes the underground thermal state difficult to interpret when temperature measurements are available and even more difficult to estimate for unmonitored sites. This is an important lacuna given possible impacts of future climate change on mechanical weathering processes. The natural daily variations of subsurface temperatures were investigated on a bare gneiss outcrop exposed to solar radiation, where temperatures at various depths (up to 50 cm), as well as the solar radiation reaching a pyranometer, were monitored hourly for several months. This detailed times series of thermal data was used to gain insight into the heat balance at the inclined free surface of the rock mass. Attention was focused on two major contributors to the heat balance; the heat flux entering the rock mass through conduction and the incoming shortwave (solar) radiation. A Fourier decomposition of the temperature measurements provided an estimate of the in situ thermal conductivity of the rock and was used to calculate the conductive term. The shortwave radiation term was determined on the basis of the pyranometer measurements adjusted to account for the angle of incidence of the sun. It is shown that, throughout clear‐sky periods, heat exchanges at the surface are mainly controlled by direct solar radiation during the day, and by a roughly constant outgoing heat flux during the night. Subsurface temperatures can be reliably estimated with a semi‐infinite medium model whose boundary condition is derived from an analytical insolation model that takes atmospheric attenuation into account. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近50年中国东南地区地面太阳辐射变化对气温变化的影响

太阳是地球表层的最终能量来源,地面太阳辐射的变化会深刻影响地球的气候变化.本文利用中国东南地区14个气象台站1961～2008年总辐射和气温的同步观测资料,分析了近50年该地区地面太阳辐射的变化对气温变化的可能影响.结果表明,1961～1989年期间,该地区的地面太阳辐射显著减弱,所引起的气温下降超过了其他因素的增温效...     

起伏地形下黄河流域太阳散射辐射分布式模拟研究

针对天文、大气、宏观地理与局地地形等因子对起伏地形下太阳散射辐射的复杂作用,将影响起伏地形下太阳散射辐射的天空因素与地面因素分开处理.通过基于数字高程模型（DEM）数据的起伏地形下天文辐射模型和地形开阔度模型,综合考虑地面因素对散射辐射的影响;基于常规地面气象站观测资料建立的水平面散射辐射模型考虑天空因素对散射辐射的影响;依据各向异性散射机理,建立了起伏地形下太阳散射辐射分布式计算模型,探索出一条利用DEM数据和常规气象观测资料实现山区太阳散射辐射定量模拟的技术路线.以1 km×1 km分辨率的DEM数据作为地形的综合反映,实现了起伏地形下黄河流域1 km×1 km分辨率的太阳散射辐射分布式模拟.     

An improved hemispherical photography model for stream surface shortwave radiation estimations in a central U.S. hardwood forest

Hemispherical photographs of forest canopies can be used to develop sophisticated models that predict incident below canopy shortwave radiation on the surface of interest (i.e. soil and water). Hemispherical photographs were collected on eight dates over the course of a growing season to estimate leaf area index and to quantify solar radiation incident on the surface of two stream reaches based on output from Gap Light Analyser and Hemisfer software. Stream reaches were shaded by a mixed‐deciduous Ozark border forested riparian canopy. Hemispherical photo model results were compared to observed solar radiation sensed at climate stations adjacent to each stream reach for the entire 2010 water year. Modeled stream‐incident shortwave radiation was validated with above‐stream pyranometers for the month of September. On average, the best hemispherical photo models underestimated daily averages of solar radiation by approximately 14% and 12% for E–W and N–S flowing stream reaches, respectively (44.7 W/m² measured vs 38.4 W/m² modeled E–W, 46.8 W/m² vs. 41.1 W/m²N–S). The best hemispherical photo models overestimated solar radiation relative to in–Stream pyranometers placed in the center of each stream reach by approximately 7% and 17% for E–W and N–S stream reaches respectively (31.3 W/m² measured vs 33.5 W/m² modeled E–W, 31.5 W/m² vs. 37.1 W/m²N–S). The model provides a geographically transferable means for quantifying changes in the solar radiation regime at a stream surface due to changes in canopy density through a growing season, thus providing a relatively simple method for estimating surface and water heating in canopy altered environments (e.g. forest harvest). Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation and calibration of solar radiation equations for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration at cool semi-arid and arid locations

ABSTRACT

In this work, the applicability of 12 solar radiation (R_S) estimation models and their impacts on daily reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) estimates using the Penman‐Monteith FAO-56 (PMF-56) method were tested under cool arid and semi-arid conditions in Iran. The results indicated that the average increase in accuracy of the ET_o estimates by the calibrated R_S models, quantified by the decrease in RMSE, was 2.8% and 6.4% for semi-arid and arid climates, respectively. Mean daily deviations in the estimated ET_o by the calibrated R_S equations in semi-arid climates varied from ?0.283?mm/d^-1 for the Glover‐McCulloch model to 0.080?mm/d for the El-Sebaii model, with an average of ?0.109?mm/d^-1, and in arid climates, they ranged from ?0.522?mm/d^-1 for the Samani model to 0.668?mm/d for the El-Sebaii model, with an average of 0.125?mm/d^-1.

Editor D. Koutsyiannis; Associate editor Not assigned     

Measurements of upper mantle shear wave anisotropy from a permanent network in southern Mexico

Upper mantle shear wave anisotropy under stations in southern Mexico was measured using records of SKS phases. Fast polarization directions where the Cocos plate subducts subhorizontally are oriented in the direction of the relative motion between the Cocos and North American plates, and are trench-perpendicular. This pattern is interpreted as subslab entrained flow, and is similar to that observed at the Cascadia subduction zone. Earlier studies have pointed out that both regions have in common the young age of the subducting lithosphere. Changes in the orientation of the fast axes are observed where the subducting plates change dip and/or are torn, and are thus indicative of 3-D flow around the slab edges. They are consistent with slab rollback, as previously shown by other authors. Some stations located away from the plate boundaries have their fast directions controlled by the absolute motion of the North American plate. The fast axis for station ZAIG, located in the Mesa Central, is oriented WNW-ESE and is different from all the other measurements in this study.     

A multivariate Bernstein copula model for permeability stochastic simulation

This paper introduces a general nonparametric method for joint stochastic simulation of petrophysical properties using the Bernstein copula. This method consists basically in generating stochastic simulations of a given petrophysical property (primary variable) modeling the underlying empirical dependence with other petrophysical properties (secondary variables) while reproducing the spatial dependence of the first one.This multivariate approach provides a very flexible tool to model the complex dependence relationships of petrophysical properties. It has several advantages over other traditional methods, since it is not restricted to the case of linear dependence among variables, it does not require the assumption of normality and/or existence of moments.In this paper this method is applied to simulate rock permeability using Vugular Porosity and Shear Wave Velocity (S-Waves) as covariates in a carbonate double-porosity formation at well log scale. Simulated permeability values show a high degree of accuracy compared to the actual values.