Projection of lightning over South/South East Asia using CMIP5 models

Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.

     

Surface air temperature changes over the Tibetan Plateau: Historical evaluation and future projection based on CMIP6 models

With its amplification simultaneously emerging in cryospheric regions, especially in the Tibetan Plateau, global warming is undoubtedly occurring. In this study, we utilized 28 global climate models to assess model performance regarding surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2014, reported spatiotemporal variability in surface air temperature in the future under four scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), and further quantified the timing of warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 °C) in the region. The results show that the multimodel ensemble means depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of surface air temperature for the past decades well, although with differences across individual models. The projected surface air temperature, by 2099, would warm by 1.9, 3.2, 5.2, and 6.3 °C relative to the reference period (1981–2010), with increasing rates of 0.11, 0.31, 0.53, and 0.70 °C/decade under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the period 2015–2099, respectively. Compared with the preindustrial periods (1850–1900), the mean annual surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau has hit the 1.5 °C threshold and will break 2 °C in the next decade, but there is still a chance to limit the temperature below 3 °C in this century. Our study provides a new understanding of climate warming in high mountain areas and implies the urgent need to achieve carbon neutrality.     

Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

Natural Hazards - The ongoing global warming has caused unprecedented changes in the climate system, leading to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather and climate extremes. This...     

Review of soil liquefaction characteristics during major earthquakes of the twenty-first century

Liquefaction, which can be defined as a loss of strength and stiffness in soils, is one of the major causes of damage to buildings and infrastructure during an earthquake. To overcome a lack of comprehensive analyses of seismically induced liquefaction, this study reviews the characteristics of liquefaction and its related damage to soils and foundations during earthquakes in the first part of the twenty-first century. Based on seismic data analysis, macroscopic phenomena of liquefaction (e.g., sand boiling, ground cracking, and lateral spread) are summarized, and several new phenomena related to earthquakes from the twenty-first century are highlighted, including liquefaction in areas with moderate seismic intensity, liquefaction of gravelly soils, liquefaction of deep-level sandy soils, re-liquefaction in aftershocks, liquid-like behavior of unsaturated sandy soils. Additionally, phenomena related to damage in soils and foundations induced by liquefaction are investigated and discussed.     

基于CMIP6模式的黄河上游地区未来气温模拟预估

利用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）提供的5个气候模式,并结合基于地面气象站的CN05.1气象资料,评估了CMIP6模式对黄河上游地区1961—2014年气温变化的模拟能力。基于7个共享社会经济路径及代表性浓度路径（SSP-RCP）组合情景,结合多模式集合平均预估了2015—2100年黄河上游地区年均气温和季平均气温的时空变化规律。结果表明：多模式集合平均能较好地模拟黄河上游地区历史平均气温的空间分布格局与年变化。7个未来情景一致表明,2015—2100年黄河上游地区年平均气温呈现波动上升趋势［0.03～0.82 ℃?（10a）^-1］。其中,低辐射强迫情景下（SSP1-1.9、SSP1-2.6及SSP4-3.4）气温先呈现增加趋势,21世纪中期到达增幅峰值,之后增温呈现放缓趋势;而中、高辐射强迫情景下（SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP4-6.0及SSP5-8.5）气温表现为持续上升态势。空间上,未来气温增幅显著的区域位于黄河上游西部地区;时间上,呈现夏季增温快,春季增温慢。四季增温的空间分布呈现出一致特征,表现为西部增温强于东部,北部增温强于南部。研究结果可为黄河流域水资源管理及气候变化的适应性研究提供科学依据。     

基于CMIP6模式数据的1961—2100年青藏高原地表气温时空变化分析

基于第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的22个地球气候/系统模式模拟数据,分析了1961—2100年期间青藏高原年均地表气温在不同情景下的时空变化。结果表明,多模式集合平均的模拟结果优于大多数单个模式。由于共享社会经济路径（SSP）和辐射强迫的不同,在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5四种情景下,2015—2100年间青藏高原年均地表气温的增温趋势分别为0.10 ℃·（10a）^-1、0.29 ℃·（10a）^-1、0.53 ℃·（10a）^-1和0.69 ℃·（10a）^-1,帕米尔高原、藏北高原中西部和巴颜喀拉山区为三个升温中心。相对于1995—2014年参考时段,到本世纪中期（2041—2060年）,青藏高原区域年均地表气温将分别增加1.37 ℃、1.72 ℃、1.98 ℃和2.30 ℃,而到本世纪末期（2081—2100年）,年均地表气温将分别增加1.42 ℃、2.65 ℃、4.28 ℃和5.38 ℃。与《巴黎协定》提出的到本世纪末全球平均气温升高不超过2 ℃目标相比,无论在哪种情景下,到本世纪中期时青藏高原年均地表气温相对于工业革命前均升高超过2 ℃,这会造成极大的气候生态环境问题。     

Relation between temperature changes of the mid-upper troposphere over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance in the twentieth century

The δ¹⁸O data obtained from an 18.7 m ice core drilled in Chongce Ice Cap at an elevation of 6,530 m a.s.l. in the West Kunlun Mountains on the northern Tibetan Plateau show a strong correlation with the summer temperature of the middle to upper troposphere over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. Based on this, the δ¹⁸O record can be used as a proxy of the June–September mean temperature of the mid-upper troposphere (MUT) from 1903 to 1992. The time span of the ice core record is much longer than the meteorological data available only after 1948. Using the empirical mode decomposition method (EMD), the δ¹⁸O record is decomposed into various frequency components and compared with the solar irradiance variations of the same period. The results show that (1) The June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes is completely decomposed into four IMF (intrinsic mode function) components and an increasing trend. (2) Solar irradiance is decomposed into the Schwabe cycle, the Hale cycle, the Gleissberg cycle, and an increasing trend. (3) The correlation coefficients between the June and September mean temperatures of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes and solar irradiance on the longer timescales (at least more than 11-year) show the significant correlations; their phase changes are basically identical in general, and (4) the 11-year Schwabe cycle exists in the June–September mean temperature of the MUT over Eurasian mid-high latitudes during most of the time from 1903 to 1992, and only in the two high-temperature phases (1929–1944 and from 1975 to the present) may global warming disturb this relation. A full understanding of this phenomenon would shed insight into the potential consequence of global warming on the MUT.     

Evaluation and comparison of CMIP6 models and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD against Satellite observations from 2000 to 2014 over China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization along with a growing population are contributing significantly to air pollution in China. Evaluation of long-term aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from models and reanalysis, can greatly promote understanding of spatiotemporal variations in air pollution in China. To do this, AOD (550 nm) values from 2000 to 2014 were obtained from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CIMP6), the second version of Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research, and Applications (MERRA-2), and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; flying on the Terra satellite) combined Dark Target and Deep Blue (DTB) aerosol product. We used the Terra-MODIS DTB AOD (hereafter MODIS DTB AOD) as a standard to evaluate CMIP6 Ensemble AOD (hereafter CMIP6 AOD) and MERRA-2 reanalysis AOD (hereafter MERRA-2 AOD). Results show better correlations and smaller errors between MERRA-2 and MODIS DTB AOD, than between CMIP6 and MODIS DTB AOD, in most regions of China, at both annual and seasonal scales. However, significant under- and over-estimations in the MERRA-2 and CMIP6 AOD were also observed relative to MODIS DTB AOD. The long-term (2000–2014) MODIS DTB AOD distributions show the highest AOD over the North China Plain (0.71) followed by Central China (0.69), Yangtse River Delta (0.67), Sichuan Basin (0.64), and Pearl River Delta (0.54) regions. The lowest AOD values were recorded over the Tibetan Plateau (0.13 ± 0.01) followed by Qinghai (0.19 ± 0.03) and the Gobi Desert (0.21 ± 0.03). Large amounts of sand and dust particles emitted from natural sources (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) may result in higher AOD in spring compared to summer, autumn, and winter. Trends were also calculated for 2000–2005, for 2006–2010 (when China introduced strict air pollution control policies during the 11th Five Year Plan or FYP), and for 2011–2014 (during the 12th FYP). An increasing trend in MODIS DTB AOD was observed throughout the country during 2000–2014. The uncontrolled industrialization, urbanization, and rapid economic development that mostly occurred from 2000 to 2005 probably contributed to the overall increase in AOD. Finally, China's air pollution control policies helped to reduce AOD in most regions of the country; this was more evident during the 12th FYP period (2011–2014) than during the 11th FYP period (2006–2010). Therefore this study strongly advises the authority to retain or extend these policies in the future for improving air quality.     

Abrupt vegetation changes during the last glacial to Holocene transition in mid‐latitude South America

A pollen record from the Huelmo site (ca. 41°30′S) shows that vegetation and climate changed at millennial time‐scales during the last glacial to Holocene transition in the mid‐latitude region of western South America. The record shows that a Nothofagus parkland dominated the landscape between 16 400 and 14 600 ¹⁴C yr BP, along with Magellanic Moorland and cupressaceous conifers. Evergreen North Patagonian rainforest taxa expanded in pulses at 14 200 and 13 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, following a prominent rise in Nothofagus at 14 600 ¹⁴C yr BP. Highly diverse, closed canopy rainforests dominated the lowlands between 13 000 and 12 500 ¹⁴C yr BP, followed by the expansion of cold‐resistant podocarps and Nothofagus at ca. 12 500 and 11 500 ¹⁴C yr BP. Local disturbance by fire favoured the expansion of shade‐intolerant opportunistic taxa between 10 900 and 10 200 ¹⁴C yr BP. Subsequent warming pulses at 10 200 and 9100 ¹⁴C yr BP led to the expansion of thermophilous, summer‐drought resistant Valdivian rainforest trees until 6900 ¹⁴C yr BP. Our results suggest that cold and hyperhumid conditions characterised the final phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), between 16 400 and 14 600 ¹⁴C yr BP. The last ice age Termination commenced with a prominent warming event that led to a rapid expansion of North Patagonian trees and the abrupt withdrawal of Andean ice lobes from their LGM positon at ca. 147 000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Hyperhumid conditions prevailed between 16 400 and 13 000 ¹⁴C yr BP, what we term the ‘extreme glacial mode’ of westerly activity. This condition was brought about by a northward shift and/or intensification of the southern westerlies. The warmest/driest conditions of the last glacial–interglacial transition occurred between 9100 and 6900 ¹⁴C yr BP. During this period, the westerlies shifted to an ‘extreme interglacial mode’ of activity, via a poleward migration of stormtracks. Our results indicate that a highly variable climatic interval lasting 5500 ¹⁴C years separate the opposite extremes of vegetation and climate during the last glacial‐interglacial cycle, i.e. the end of the LGM and the onset of the early Holocene warm and dry period. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the seasonal variation of simulated Wyrtki jet over the tropical Indian Ocean in CMIP5 models

Performances of the 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in simulating the Wyrtki Jet over the tropical Indian Ocean are evaluated, and the results show large diversity in the simulated current intensity at seasonal timescale. These coupled models are able to capture the dominant spatial distribution of observed Wyrtki Jet, the central equatorial region. The simulated seasonal variations of Wyrtki Jet are also reproduced quantitatively, though the simulated amplitudes from CMIP5 models are quite spread among the CMIP5 models. Compared with the observation, some coupled models are not able to present the evolution of Wyrtki Jet in fall season and the decay phase has been postponed 1 month later. Further diagnostic illustrates that the simulated surface zonal wind has remarkable impact on the evolution of Wyrtki Jet in fall season over the tropical Indian Ocean. This study also points out that there is a common problem in these models that most of them present 1-month delayed Wyrtki Jets peak time than the normal climatological condition along the center equatorial Indian Ocean.     

基于CMIP6气候模式的新疆积雪深度时空格局研究

积雪深度的变化对地表水热平衡起着至关重要的作用。选用了国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）中目前情景比较齐全的五个全球气候模式,通过对比新疆地区1979—2014年积雪深度长时间序列数据集,评估了气候模式在新疆地区模拟积雪深度的模拟能力,接着预估了未来不同SSPs-RCPs情景下新疆地区在2021—2040年（近期）、2041—2060年（中期）、2081—2100年（末期）相对于基准期（1995—2014年）的积雪深度变化。气温和降水对积雪深度变化有着重要的影响,因此还分析了新疆地区到21世纪末期气温和降水的变化趋势。结果表明：订正后的气候模式模拟的积雪深度数据与观测数据的相关系数均达到0.8以上,其中1月至3月与观测数据的结果更为吻合。气候模式基本上能够反映积雪深度年内变化的基本特征,气候模式模拟的积雪深度空间分布和观测数据具有相似的特征。气温和降水在未来不同情景下均会波动上升,其中气温的增幅相对比较明显,达0.43 ℃·（10a）^-1,而降水的增幅为0.63 mm·（10a）^-1,新疆未来的气候总体上呈现出变暖变湿的趋势。新疆地区的平均积雪深度在未来不同时期相对基准期均呈增加的趋势。SSP1-1.9情景下,21世纪近期、中期和末期北部大部分地区的积雪深度将会有所增加;SSP1-2.6情景下,北部阿尔泰山地区的积雪深度在21世纪近期有所减小,但中期和末期将会有所增加;SSP2-4.5情景下,21世纪不同时期东部地区的积雪深度将会有所增加,北部和中部大部分地区在不同时期积雪深度将会变小;SSP3-7.0情景下,21世纪不同时期北部和西南地区的积雪深度将会普遍变小,东部地区的积雪深度将普遍增加;SSP4-3.4和SSP4-6.0情景下,21世纪不同时期西南昆仑山地区的积雪深度将会普遍变小,东部地区的积雪深度将普遍增加;SSP5-8.5情景下,北部阿尔泰山地区和东部地区的积雪深度将普遍增加。     

About the observed and future changes in temperature extremes over India

An attempt is made in the present study to analyse observed and model simulated temperature extremes over Indian region. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data at 121 well-distributed stations for the period 1970–2003 have been used to study the observed changes in objectively defined values of temperature extremes. In addition, an assessment of future scenarios of temperature extremes associated with increase in the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases is done using simulations of a state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) performed to generate the climate for the present (1961–1990) and future projections for the period 2071–2100. Observational analysis done with 121 stations suggests the widespread warming through increase in intensity and frequency of hot events and also with decrease in frequency of cold events. More than 75% stations show decreasing trend in number of cold events and about 70% stations show increasing trend in hot events. Percentage of stations towards the warming through intensity indices of highest maximum temperature, lowest minimum temperature is 78 and 71% stations, respectively. Remaining stations show opposite trends, however, most of them are statistically insignificant. Observational analysis for India as a whole also shows similar results. Composite anomalies for monthly temperature extremes over two equal parts of the data period show increase (decrease) in the frequency of hot (cold) events for all months. In general, PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicate increase (decrease) in hot (cold) extremes towards the end of twenty-first century. Both show similar patterns, but the B2 scenario shows slightly lower magnitudes of the projected changes. Temperatures are likely to increase in entire calendar year, but the changes in winter season are expected to be prominent. Diurnal temperature range is expected to decrease in winter (JF) and pre-monsoon (MAM) months.     

Holocene sea-level changes along the Strait of Magellan and Beagle Channel,southernmost South America

Radiocarbon-dated marine sediments from five coastal sites along the Strait of Magellan and Beagle Channel in southernmost Chile permit construction of a curve of relative sea-level fluctuations during the Holocene. Morphologic and stratigraphic data point to coastal submergence during the early Holocene as the sea rose to a maximum level at least 3.5 m higher than present about 5000 yr ago. Progressive emergence then followed during the late Holocene. Data from widely separated localities define a smooth curve, the form of which is explainable in terms of isostatic and hydroisostatic deformation of the crust resulting from changing ice and water loads. Apparently anomalous data from one site located more than 100 km behind the outer limit of the last glaciation may reflect isostatic response to deglaciation. The sea-level curve resembles one derived by Clark and Bloom (1979, In “Proceedings of the 1978 International Symposium on Coastal Evolution in the Quaternary, Sao Paulo, Brasil,” pp. 41–60. Sao Paulo) using a spherical Earth model, both in amplitude and in the timing of the maximum submergence.     

The high-supply,current-dominated continental margin of southeastern South America during the late Quaternary

The continental margin off the La Plata Estuary (SE South America) is characterized by high fluvial sediment supply and strong ocean currents. High-resolution sediment-acoustic data combined with sedimentary facies analysis, AMS-¹⁴C ages, and neodymium isotopic data allowed us to reconstruct late Quaternary sedimentary dynamics in relation to the two major sediment sources, the La Plata Estuary and the Argentine margin. Sediments from these two provinces show completely different dispersal patterns. We show that the northward-trending La Plata paleo-valley was the sole transit path for the huge volumes of fluvial material during lower sea levels. In contrast, material from the Argentine margin sector was transported northwards by the strong current system. Despite the large sediment volumes supplied by both sources, wide parts of the shelf were characterized by either persistent non-deposition or local short-term depocenter formation. The location and formation history of these depocenters were primarily controlled by the interplay of sea level with current strength and local morphology. The high sediment supply was of secondary importance to the stratigraphic construction, though locally resulting in high sedimentation rates. Thus, the shelf system off the La Plata Estuary can be considered as a hydrodynamic-controlled end-member.     

Hydrologic variation during the last 170,000 years in the southern hemisphere tropics of South America

Despite the hypothesized importance of the tropics in the global climate system, few tropical paleoclimatic records extend to periods earlier than the last glacial maximum (LGM), about 20,000 years before present. We present a well-dated 170,000-year time series of hydrologic variation from the southern hemisphere tropics of South America that extends from modern times through most of the penultimate glacial period. Alternating mud and salt units in a core from Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia reflect alternations between wet and dry periods. The most striking feature of the sequence is that the duration of paleolakes increased in the late Quaternary. This change may reflect increased precipitation, geomorphic or tectonic processes that affected basin hydrology, or some combination of both. The dominance of salt between 170,000 and 140,000 yr ago indicates that much of the penultimate glacial period was dry, in contrast to wet conditions in the LGM. Our analyses also suggest that the relative influence of insolation forcing on regional moisture budgets may have been stronger during the past 50,000 years than in earlier times.     

Change trends for desertified lands in the Horqin Sandy Land at the beginning of the twenty-first century

The dynamics of desertification in the Horqin Sandy Land between 2000 and 2005 were analyzed using Landsat TM/ETM images and the data-processing function of geographical information software. The results showed that the extent of desertified land decreased at a rate of slightly more than 0.1 km² year⁻¹, from 22,423.1 km² in 2000 to 22,422.4 km² in 2005, indicating that desertification has been controlled in this area and that desert areas may be approaching a steady state. The dynamics of desertification differed among land types. Desertification decreased most obviously in areas of previous desert land. The area in which desertification was ameliorated was higher than the area that underwent further degradation, but non-desertified land (113.3 km²) deteriorated at a rate of 22.7 km² year⁻¹ during this period. This significant change requires careful attention by managers in the study area.     

Assessment of the response of subaqueous methane hydrate deposits to possible climate change in the twenty-first century

Doklady Earth Sciences -