Do credit booms predict US recessions?

This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting US recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from 6 to 9 months. Second, I propose to isolate the effect of credit booms by identifying the contribution of excess bank liquidity alongside a housing factor in the downturn of each cycle. Third, the out-of-sample performance of the model is tested on the most recent credit-driven recession: the Great Recession of 2008. The model performs better than a more parsimonious version where we restrict the effect of credit booms on the business cycle in the system to be zero.     

Can consumer sentiment and its components forecast Australian GDP and consumption?

This paper examines whether the disaggregation of consumer sentiment data into its sub‐components improves the real‐time capacity to forecast GDP and consumption. A Bayesian error correction approach augmented with the consumer sentiment index and permutations of the consumer sentiment sub‐indices is used to evaluate forecasting power. The forecasts are benchmarked against both composite forecasts and forecasts from standard error correction models. Using Australian data, we find that consumer sentiment data increase the accuracy of GDP and consumption forecasts, with certain components of consumer sentiment consistently providing better forecasts than aggregate consumer sentiment data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can animals predict earthquakes?: Bio-sentinels as seismic sensors in communist China and beyond

This paper examines the international research on abnormal animal behavior prior to earthquakes, with a focus on Chinese seismology during the Cultural Revolution. China experienced a series of powerful earthquakes in the 1960s and 1970s; in response, its scientists developed approaches to earthquake prediction, including the use of bio-sentinels. The paper demonstrates that Chinese seismology did not treat an earthquake simply as a geophysical event, but rather as an amalgam of environmental phenomena, including sensory experiences. Hence, distributive experience and sensory networks of humans and bio-sentinels constituted an important component of studying the environment. This historical case suggests insights into bio-monitoring of the global environment.     

Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate

This paper investigates whether the forecasting performance of Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models can be improved by incorporating prior beliefs on the steady state of the time series in the system. Traditional methodology is compared to the new framework—in which a mean‐adjusted form of the models is employed—by estimating the models on Swedish inflation and interest rate data from 1980 to 2004. Results show that the out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the models is practically unchanged for inflation but significantly improved for the interest rate when informative prior distributions on the steady state are provided. The findings in this paper imply that this new methodology could be useful since it allows us to sharpen our forecasts in the presence of potential pitfalls such as near unit root processes and structural breaks, in particular when relying on small samples. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can we predict the mating pattern ofDrosophila females from the sperm length distribution in males?

Summary In order to test the validity of the prediction of the mating pattern of females from the sperm length distribution in males, three species ofDrosophila were analysed. Males in the three species are equally polygynous but females differ in the level of polyandry. A low recurrence polyandry is observed in the sperm dimorphic speciesD. affinis while a high recurrence polyandry is observed in the sperm monomorphic speciesD. latifasciaeformis andD. littoralis. These results are consistent with the hypothesis proposed previously that sperm dimorphism in males can only be maintained by a selective alternative in females (i.e. facultative female polygamy), whereas a stricter mating system (e.g., obligatory polyandry) should only result in sperm monomorphism irrespective of the absolute value of sperm length.     

A linear benchmark for forecasting GDP growth and inflation?

Predicting the future evolution of GDP growth and inflation is a central concern in economics. Forecasts are typically produced either from economic theory‐based models or from simple linear time series models. While a time series model can provide a reasonable benchmark to evaluate the value added of economic theory relative to the pure explanatory power of the past behavior of the variable, recent developments in time series analysis suggest that more sophisticated time series models could provide more serious benchmarks for economic models. In this paper we evaluate whether these complicated time series models can outperform standard linear models for forecasting GDP growth and inflation. We consider a large variety of models and evaluation criteria, using a bootstrap algorithm to evaluate the statistical significance of our results. Our main conclusion is that in general linear time series models can hardly be beaten if they are carefully specified. However, we also identify some important cases where the adoption of a more complicated benchmark can alter the conclusions of economic analyses about the driving forces of GDP growth and inflation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences?

Application of the Bernhardt et al. (Journal of Financial Economics 2006; 80 (3): 657–675) test of herding to the calendar‐year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon, when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting stock index volatility: can market volume help?

This paper explores a number of statistical models for predicting the daily stock return volatility of an aggregate of all stocks traded on the NYSE. An application of linear and non-linear Granger causality tests highlights evidence of bidirectional causality, although the relationship is stronger from volatility to volume than the other way around. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of various linear, GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and neural network models of volatility are evaluated and compared. The models are also augmented by the addition of a measure of lagged volume to form more general ex-ante forecasting models. The results indicate that augmenting models of volatility with measures of lagged volume leads only to very modest improvements, if any, in forecasting performance. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can Bohmian mechanics be made background independent?

The paper presents an inquiry into the question regarding the compatibility of Bohmian mechanics, intended as a non-local theory of moving point-like particles, with background independence. This issue is worth being investigated because, if the Bohmian framework has to be of some help in developing new physics, it has to be compatible with the most well-established traits of modern physics, background independence being one of such traits. The paper highlights the fact that the notion of background independence in the context of spacetime physics is slippery and interpretation-laden. It is then suggested that the best-matching framework developed by Julian Barbour might provide a robust enough meaning of background independence. The structure of Bohmian dynamics is evaluated against this framework, reaching some intermediate results that speak in favor of the fact that Bohmian mechanics can be made background independent.     

Can We Explain Thermodynamics By Quantum Decoherence?

Can we explain the laws of thermodynamics, in particular the irreversible increase of entropy, from the underlying quantum mechanical dynamics? Attempts based on classical dynamics have all failed. Albert (1994a,b; 2000) proposed a way to recover thermodynamics on a purely dynamical basis, using the quantum theory of the collapse of the wavefunction of Ghirardi, Rimini and Weber (1986). In this paper we propose an alternative way to explain thermodynamics within no-collapse interpretations of quantum mechanics. Our approach relies on the standard quantum mechanical models of environmental decoherence of open systems, e.g. Joos and Zeh (1985) and Zurek and Paz (1994).     

Can we know the global structure of spacetime?

Here, we briefly review the notion of observational indistinguishability within the context of classical general relativity. We settle a conjecture given by Malament [(1977). Observationally indistinguishable space-times. In J. Earman, C. Glymour, & J. Statchel (Eds.), Foundations of space–time theories. Minnesota studies in the philosophy of science (Vol. VIII, pp. 61–80). Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press] concerning the subject and then strengthen the result considerably. The upshot is this: There seems to be a robust sense in which the global structure of every cosmological model is underdetermined.     

Reverse transendothelial cell migration in inflammation: to help or to hinder?

The endothelium provides a strong barrier separating circulating blood from tissue. It also provides a significant challenge for immune cells in the bloodstream to access potential sites of infection. To mount an effective immune response, leukocytes traverse the endothelial layer in a process known as transendothelial migration. Decades of work have allowed dissection of the mechanisms through which immune cells gain access into peripheral tissues, and subsequently to inflammatory foci. However, an often under-appreciated or potentially ignored question is whether transmigrated leukocytes can leave these inflammatory sites, and perhaps even return across the endothelium and re-enter circulation. Although evidence has existed to support “reverse” transendothelial migration for a number of years, it is only recently that mechanisms associated with this process have been described. Here we review the evidence that supports both reverse transendothelial migration and reverse interstitial migration within tissues, with particular emphasis on some of the more recent studies that finally hint at potential mechanisms. Additionally, we postulate the biological significance of retrograde migration, and whether it serves as an additional mechanism to limit pathology, or provides a basis for the dissemination of systemic inflammation.     

Can We Predict Exchange Rate Movements at Short Horizons?

This paper explains the unpredictability of exchange rate movements at short horizons and provides a plausible answer on the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. By generalizing Chaboud and Wright's (Journal of International Economics 2005; 66 : 349–362) work, it is shown that exchange rates follow a martingale process at short horizons but over long horizons may contain some predictable structure. The empirical results applied to several major currencies of the US dollar support our hypothesis. This evidence is not coincided with the explanation of the inefficient market hypothesis under which exchange rate movements can be predictable in both short and long horizons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can forecasters forecast successfully? Evidence from UK betting markets

This paper investigates the performance of professional racetrack forecasting services in the UK. The racetrack market is chosen for investigation because it offers a clear and well‐defined set of costs and returns. As such, it provides a useful perspective from which to consider the efficiency of professional forecasting performance. Five services are selected based on their reported success in a period prior to the sample selection. The results of this study indicate that all the services showed evidence of net pre‐tax profits, notably for more strongly recommended tips, but this would have required quite high stakes to cover the costs of accessing the information. Statistical tests of significance were unable, however, to confirm the evidence of profitability at conventional levels of acceptance. Taking into account the transactions costs of using these services, it is even more difficult to confirm the existence of abnormal returns. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can the behavioral sciences self-correct? A social epistemic study

Advocates of the self-corrective thesis argue that scientific method will refute false theories and find closer approximations to the truth in the long run. I discuss a contemporary interpretation of this thesis in terms of frequentist statistics in the context of the behavioral sciences. First, I identify experimental replications and systematic aggregation of evidence (meta-analysis) as the self-corrective mechanism. Then, I present a computer simulation study of scientific communities that implement this mechanism to argue that frequentist statistics may converge upon a correct estimate or not depending on the social structure of the community that uses it. Based on this study, I argue that methodological explanations of the “replicability crisis” in psychology are limited and propose an alternative explanation in terms of biases. Finally, I conclude suggesting that scientific self-correction should be understood as an interaction effect between inference methods and social structures.     

Can the two-time interpretation of quantum mechanics solve the measurement problem?

Over many years, Aharonov and co-authors have proposed a new interpretation of quantum mechanics: the two-time interpretation. This interpretation assigns two wavefunctions to a system, one of which propagates forwards in time and the other backwards. In this paper, I argue that this interpretation does not solve the measurement problem. In addition, I argue that it is neither necessary nor sufficient to attribute causal power to the backwards-evolving wavefunction $〈\Phi |$ and thus its existence should be denied, contra the two-time interpretation. Finally, I follow Vaidman in giving an epistemological reading of $〈\Phi |$.     

Can We Predict the Financial Markets Based on Google's Search Queries?

We look into the interaction of Google's search queries and several aspects of international equity markets. Using a novel methodology for selecting words and a vector autoregressive modeling approach, we study whether the search queries of finance‐related words can have an impact on returns, volatility of returns and traded volume in four different English‐speaking countries. We identify several words whose search frequency is associated with changes in the dependent variables. In particular, we find that increases in search queries including the word stock predict increased volatility and decreased index returns over the next week. On top of that, we investigate the performance of a market‐timing strategy based on the search frequency of this word and benchmark it against random words from the Word‐Net database and a naive buy‐and‐hold strategy. The results of this empirical application are positive and particularly stronger during the global crisis of 2009. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can the sulphur bridge be considered as a relay of conjugation?

Riassunto Vengono studiati gli spettri di assorbimento u.v. del nitro-difenil-, nitro-fenil-benzil-solfuro e loro derivati X-sostituiti: dove X è eguale ad NH₂, N(CH₃)₂, OH, OCH₃ in posizione para- o meta- nel fenile non nitro-sostituito rispetto allo zolfo.Viene dimostrato che una coniugazione che si estenda da un fenile all'altro, attraverso il ponte di zolfo nella serie dei difenil-solfuri non è suffragata dai fatti spettroscopici.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.