非对称信息下市场需求与生产成本同时发生扰动时的供应链决策

对由一个生产商和一个销售商组成的两级供应链模型,基于以生产商为主导的Stackelberg 博弈,针对需求函数分别为线性和非线性的情形,研究非对称信息下市场需求和生产成本同时扰动的供应链最优决策。在市场规模不确定的条件下建立生产商与销售商的利润函数,根据两类扰动之间的关系分四种情况确定供应链中各因素及总利润的最佳表示形式。通过数值仿真试验讨论供应链中各因素随扰动及市场信息变化而变化的各种趋势和最优生产量在一定条件下的鲁棒性,并进一步说明非对称信息下两类扰动对供应链的影响。     

Optimal Procurement Design of an Assembly Supply Chain with Information Asymmetry

We study a decentralized assembly supply chain in which an assembler (she) assembles a set of n components, each produced by a different supplier (he), into a final product to satisfy an uncertain market demand. Each supplier holds private cost information to himself, for which the assembler only has a subjective estimate. Furthermore, the assembler believes that the suppliers' costs follow a joint discrete probability distribution. The assembler aims to design an optimal menu of contracts to maximize her own expected profit. The assembler's problem is a complex multi‐dimensional constrained optimization problem. We prove that there exists a unique optimal menu of contracts for the assembler, and we further develop an efficient algorithm with a complexity of O(n) to compute the optimal contract. In addition, we conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to analyze how environmental parameters affect individual firm's performance and the value of information to the assembler, to each supplier, and to the supply chain. Our results suggest that each supplier's private cost information becomes more valuable to the assembler and each supplier when the average market demand increases or when the final product unit revenue increases. Surprisingly, when a supplier's cost volatility increases and its mean remains the same, the value of information to the assembler or to each supplier does not necessarily increase. Furthermore, we show that when the suppliers' cost distributions become more positively correlated, the suppliers are always worse off, but the assembler is better off. However, the value of information for the assembler might increase or decrease.