Simulation of Non-Homogeneous CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and Its Impact on Regional Temperature in East Asia

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is an important greenhouse gas that influences regional climate through disturbing the earth’s energy balance. The CO₂ concentrations are usually prescribed homogenously in most climate models and the spatiotemporal variations of CO₂ are neglected. To address this issue, a regional climate model (RegCM4) is modified to investigate the non-homogeneous distribution of CO₂ and its effects on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature in East Asia. One-year simulation is performed with prescribed surface CO₂ fluxes that include fossil fuel emission, biomass burning, air–sea exchange, and terrestrial biosphere flux. Two numerical experiments (one using constant prescribed CO₂ concentrations in the radiation scheme and the other using the simulated CO₂ concentrations that are spatially non-homogeneous) are conducted to assess the impact of non-homogeneous CO₂ on the regional longwave radiation flux and temperature. Comparison of CO₂ concentrations from the model with the observations from the GLOBALVIEW-CO₂ network suggests that the model can well capture the spatiotemporal patterns of CO₂ concentrations. Generally, high CO₂ mixing ratios appear in the heavily industrialized eastern China in cold seasons, which probably relates to intensive human activities. The accommodation of non-homogeneous CO₂ concentrations in the radiative transfer scheme leads to an annual mean change of–0.12 W m^–2 in total sky surface upward longwave flux in East Asia. The experiment with non-homogeneous CO₂ tends to yield a warmer lower troposphere. Surface temperature exhibits a maximum difference in summertime, ranging from–4.18 K to 3.88 K, when compared to its homogeneous counterpart. Our results indicate that the spatial and temporal distributions of CO₂ have a considerable impact on regional longwave radiation flux and temperature, and should be taken into account in future climate modeling.     

Accounting for CO_2 Variability over East Asia with a Regional Joint Inversion System and Its Preliminary Evaluation

A regional surface carbon dioxide(CO_2) flux inversion system, the Tan-Tracker-Region, was developed by incorporating an assimilation scheme into the Community Multiscale Air Quality(CMAQ) regional chemical transport model to resolve fine-scale CO_2 variability over East Asia. The proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation approach(POD-4 DVar) is the core algorithm for the joint assimilation framework, and simultaneous assimilations of CO_2 concentrations and surface CO_2 fluxes are applied to help reduce the uncertainty in initial CO_2 concentrations. A persistence dynamical model was developed to describe the evolution of the surface CO_2 fluxes and help avoid the "signal-to-noise" problem; thus, CO_2 fluxes could be estimated as a whole at the model grid scale, with better use of observation information. The performance of the regional inversion system was evaluated through a group of single-observation-based observing system simulation experiments(OSSEs). The results of the experiments suggest that a reliable performance of Tan-Tracker-Region is dependent on certain assimilation parameter choices, for example, an optimized window length of approximately 3 h, an ensemble size of approximately 100, and a covariance localization radius of approximately 320 km. This is probably due to the strong diurnal variation and spatial heterogeneity in the fine-scale CMAQ simulation, which could affect the performance of the regional inversion system. In addition, because all observations can be artificially obtained in OSSEs, the performance of Tan-Tracker-Region was further evaluated through different densities of the artificial observation network in different CO_2 flux situations. The results indicate that more observation sites would be useful to systematically improve the estimation of CO_2 concentration and flux in large areas over the model domain. The work presented here forms a foundation for future research in which a thorough estimation of CO_2 flux variability over East Asia could be performed with the regional inversion system.     

区域气候模式与陆面模式的耦合及其对东亚气候模拟的影响

将大气—植被相互作用模式AVIM（Atmosphere-Vegetation Interaction Model）与区域环境系统集成模式 RIEMS2.0（Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System Version 2.0）耦合,利用耦合后的AVIM-RIEMS2.0模式在东亚区域选定典型年份进行积分试验,通过模拟结果与观测资料对比分析,从整体上评估耦合模式对东亚区域的模拟能力。结果表明:模式能够较好地模拟850 hPa风场、500 hPa位势高度、气温、降水以及地表热通量空间分布型和季节变化。双向耦合具有动态植被过程的AVIM模式后,RIEMS2.0模拟能力有一定程度的提高。850 hPa风场在冬季的中国东北、华北地区以及夏季的中国东部地区,模拟偏差都减小;500 hPa高度场模拟在中国北方地区改进明显,而在中国南方地区的夏季并没表现出明显的改进趋势。耦合模式改进了RIEMS2.0模式冬季气温模拟偏低而夏季偏高的现象。从区域平均看,耦合模式改善了降水模拟偏多的现象,并使得潜热通量的模拟效果有明显的改进,对感热通量模拟在大部分地区也有改进。总的来看,AVIM-RIEMS2.0耦合模式对中国北方地区模拟改进较为明显,而对中国南方地区,特别是华南地区没有明显的改进。     

干旱区陆面过程参数改进对东亚区域气候影响的数值模拟

为了进一步检验裸土参数化的气候模拟性能,本文在文献[1,2]的基础上,利用NCEP再分析资料和Xie等全球降水资料与CCM3模拟结果进行了对比。结果表明：加入裸土参数化方案的CCM3能较好地再现冬季东亚和中国地区区域气候的主要特征,模式较原CCM3能更好地模拟地表温度和东亚及中国西北地区的降水,对东亚季风环流的模拟也较接近实际。同时,该方案在CCM3中的加入改进了青藏高原冬季降雪带及夏季高原东南部降水中心的模拟,提高了模式对高原冬夏季降水的模拟能力,从而再次说明利用观测资料对模式参数修正及参数化方法的改进是提高数值模式模拟能力的一个重要途径。     

Regional Oceanic Impact on Circulation and Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosol over East Asia

The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System(RIEMS 2.0) coupled with a chemistry-aerosol model and the Princeton Ocean Model(POM) is employed to simulate regional oceanic impact on atmospheric circulation and the direct radiative effect(DRE) of aerosol over East Asia.The aerosols considered in this study include both major anthropogenic aerosols(e.g.,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) and natural aerosols(e.g.,soil dust and sea salt) .The RIEMS 2.0 is driven by NCEP/NCAR reanalysis II,and the simulated period is from 1 January to 31 December 2006.The results show the following:(1) The simulated annual mean sea-level pressure by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is lower than without POM over the mainland and higher without POM over the ocean.(2) In summer,the subtropical high simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is stronger and extends further westward,and the continental low is stronger than without POM in summer.(3) The aerosol optical depth(AOD) simulated by RIEMS 2.0 with POM is larger in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River than without POM.(4) The direct radiative effect with POM is stronger than that without POM in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of southern China. Therefore,the authors should take account of the impact of the regional ocean model on studying the direct climate effect of aerosols in long term simulation.     

用IAP/LASG GOALS模式模拟CO_2增加引起的东亚地区气候变化(英文)

用一个全球耦合的海洋──大气──陆地系统模式（ＩＡＰ／ ＬＡＳＧ ＧＯＡＬＳ）研究因 ＣＯ２增加引起的全球增暖,重点是讨论东亚地区气候变化。完成了两个试验,一个是ＣＯ２含量保持不变的对照试验,一个是ＣＯ２浓度按每年１０％增加的扰动试验。结果表明,在对照试验中没有出现气候漂移,在ＣＯ２含量加倍时全球平均地面气温将增加１．６５℃。ＧＯＡＬＳ模式能较好模拟观测的东亚温度和降水的空间分体和年循环,但模拟的年平均温度略偏低、年降水稍偏大。在ＣＯ２含量加倍时,东亚地区温度和降水将分别增加２．１℃和５％,最大增温出现在中纬度大陆上,最大的降水增加出现在２５°Ｎ附近。     

区域气候模式REMO对东亚季风季节变化的模拟研究

将欧洲区域气候模式REMO首次应用于东亚区域,利用该模式对1980年和1990年东亚季风季节变化进行了模拟研究,并将模拟结果与NCEP再分析资料进行比较,以检验该模式对东亚季风的模拟能力.研究表明,区域气候模式REMO能够较好地模拟出东亚地区高、低空的大气环流特征,模拟的高度场、流场和温度场与NCEP再分析资料场都比较一致.模拟结果显示了东亚季风的月变化和季节转换特征.模拟的降水场与GPCC降水资料的对比结果表明,REMO能较为成功地模拟出东亚地区降水的空间分布,并能较好地反映降水的季节变化及主要降水趋势,夏季降水模拟偏大,整个区域平均的降水量偏差约为18%左右.     

Performance of Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS) in the Simulation of Surface Air Temperature over East Asia

Regional climate models (RCMs) have the potential for more detailed surface characteristic and mesoscale modeling results than general circulation models (GCMs).These advantages have drawn significant focus on RCM development in East Asia.The Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System,version 2.0 (RIEMS2.0),has been developed from an earlier RCM,RIEMS1.0,by the Key Laboratory of Regional ClimateEnvironment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA) and Nanjing University.A numerical experiment covering 1979 to 2008 (simulation duration from 1 January 1978 to 31 December 2008) with a 50-km spatial resolution was performed to test the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate long-term climate and climate changes in East Asia and to provide a basis for further development and applications.The simulated surface air temperature (SAT) was compared with observed meteorological data.The results show that RIEMS2.0 simulation reproduced the SAT spatial distribution in East Asia but that it was underestimated.The simulated 30-year averaged SAT was approximately 2.0°C lower than the observed SAT.The annual and interannual variations in the averaged SAT and their anomalies were both well reproduced in the model.A further analysis of three sub-regions representing different longitudinal ranges showed that there is a good correlation and consistency between the simulated results and the observed data.The annual variations,interannual variations for the averaged SAT,and the anomalies in the three sub-regions were also captured well by the model.In summary,RIEMS2.0 shows stability and does well both in simulating the long-term SAT in East Asia and in expressing sub-regional characteristics.     

A Regional Air--Sea Coupled Model and Its Application over East Asia in the Summer of 2000

A regional air-sea coupled model,comprising the Regional Integrated Environment Model System (RIEMS)and the Princeton Ocean Model(POM)was developed to simulate summer climate features over East Asia in 2000.The sensitivity of the model's behavior to the coupling time interval(CTI),the causes of the sea surface temperature(SST)biases,and the role of air-sea interaction in the simulation of precipitation over China are investigated.Results show that the coupled model can basically produce the spatial pattern of SST,precipitation,and surface air temperature(SAT)with five different CTIs respectively.Also,using a CTI of 3,6 or 12 hours tended to produce more successful simulations than if using 1 and 24 hours.Further analysis indicates that both a higher and lower coupling frequency result in larger model biases in air-sea heat flux exchanges,which might be responsible for the sensitivity of the coupled model's behavior to the CTI. Sensitivity experiments indicate that SST biases between the coupled and uncoupled POM occurring over the China coastal waters were due to the mismatch of the surface heat fluxes produced by the RIEMS with those required by the POM.In the coupled run,the air-sea feedbacks reduced the biases in surface heat fluxes,compared with the uncoupled RIEMS,consequently resulted in changes in thermal contrast over land and sea and led to a precipitation increase over South China and a decrease over North China.These results agree well observations in the summer of 2000.     

Regional variability of climate change hot-spots in East Asia

The regional climate change index (RCCI) is employed to investigate hot-spots under 21st century global warming over East Asia. The RCCI is calculated on a 1-degree resolution grid from the ensemble of CMIP3 simulations for the B1, A1B, and A2 IPCC emission scenarios. The RCCI over East Asia exhibits marked sub-regional variability. Five sub-regional hot-spots are identified over the area of investigation: three in the northern regions (Northeast China, Mongolia, and Northwest China), one in eastern China, and one over the Tibetan Plateau. Contributions from different factors to the RCCI are discussed for the sub-regions. Analysis of the temporal evolution of the hot-spots throughout the 21st century shows different speeds of response time to global warming for the different sub-regions. Hot-spots firstly emerge in Northwest China and Mongolia. The Northeast China hot-spot becomes evident by the mid of the 21st century and it is the most prominent by the end of the century. While hot-spots are generally evident in all the 5 sub-regions for the A1B and A2 scenarios, only the Tibetan Plateau and Northwest China hot-spots emerge in the B1 scenario, which has the lowest greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Our analysis indicates that sub-regional hot-spots show a rather complex spatial and temporal dependency on the GHG concentration and on the different factors contributing to the RCCI.     

P-σ九层区域气候模式对东亚区域气候季节与年际变化的模拟

利用所发展的P-σ九层区域气候模式较成功地模拟了东亚地区区域气候的季节与年际变化,结果表明,初夏南亚高压的季节性变化与亚洲夏季风的建立具有密切关系,成功地模拟出了降水的季节变化,但夏季降水模拟较差.实际嵌套场的引入,使降水模拟得以改善.实际海温的引入使得南亚高压的模拟增强,而西太平洋副高的模拟则与西太平洋暖池地区的海温具有密切关系,在厄尔尼诺年,与使用月平均海温相比,副高有明显的增强或减弱,副高对暖池降温的响应具有不确定性.     

冬季中高纬地区阻塞高压活动及其气候影响

利用1958—1996年NCEP再分析500 hPa逐日高度场资料,根据阻塞高压定义的客观标准,对亚欧地区中高纬度冬季的阻塞高压进行了统计,并进行了气候学分析。结果表明,北半球冬季阻塞高压活动有很强的年际变化,而且存在明显的地理差异。在此基础上,本文还根据阻塞高压天气学指数,建立了阻塞高压的气候学指数,并用该阻塞高压气候学指数与温度、降水两个气候要素场进行了相关统计。     

The Relative Impact of Regional Scale Land Cover Change and Increasing CO_2 over China

A series of 17-yr equilibrium simulations using the NCAR CCM3 (T42 resolution) were performed to investigate the regional scale impacts of land cover change and increasing CO2 over China. Simulations with natural and current land cover at CO2 levels of 280, 355, 430, and 505 ppmv were conducted. Results show statistically significant changes in major climate fields (e.g. temperature and surface wind speed) on a 15-yr average following     

CCSM4.0的长期积分试验及其对东亚和中国气候模拟的评估

本文利用通用气候系统模式CCSM4.0的低分辨率 (T31, 约3.75° × 3.75°) 版本进行了700年的长期积分试验, 将中国地表气温、降水及东亚海平面气压、500 hPa和100 hPa位势高度、850 hPa风场的最后100年模拟结果与观测和再分析资料进行了定性比较, 并对前三个要素的不同统计量值进行了定量计算, 系统评估了CCSM4.0对东亚及我国气候的模拟能力。结果表明, 模式能够合理模拟各变量的基本分布形态, 但幅度与观测有所差别, 其中地表气温的模拟效果最好, 降水的相对最差。具体而言, 地表气温空间分布型与观测一致, 但全年青藏高原地表气温模拟值偏高, 位于塔里木盆地的暖中心未能模拟出来; 降水空间分布型模拟较差, 除冬季不明显之外, 我国中南部全年都存在一个虚假降水中心, 并在夏季达到最强; 冬季东亚地区海陆热力对比大于观测, 夏季海平面气压场整体模拟效果不如冬季; 模式对冬、夏季500 hPa东亚大槽和西北太平洋副热带高压的主要特征刻画较好, 但模拟结果整体比观测偏强; 夏季100 hPa南亚高压强度与观测接近, 但高压范围及中心位置存在偏差; 850 hPa东亚冬季风和夏季风环流模拟较好, 但冬季西北气流偏强, 夏季索马里越赤道气流偏弱、我国东部西南气流偏强。总的来说, CCSM4.0对东亚和我国大尺度气候特征具备合理的模拟能力, 尽管在定量上还存在着不足。     

东亚副热带急流的空间结构及其与中国冬季气温的关系

本文利用1950～2012 年NCEP/NCAR 逐月再分析风场资料和中国542 个台站逐日观测资料研究东亚副热带急流(EAJ)的空间结构及其与中国冬季气温的关系。结果表明,东亚副热带急流在空间呈不规则管状结构,冬季急流体积最大,垂直厚度范围自500 hPa 至100 hPa;夏季急流体积最小,仅存在于200 hPa 附近。急流管在秋、冬、春季略呈西南—东北走向,在夏季呈西—东走向。不同高度上的最大风速轴线在南北方向的移动不尽一致,春、秋季低层风速轴比高层偏北。东亚急流管不同区域下方的垂直运动及其年变化存在差异。冬季东亚副热带急流强度与同期中国气温关系密切,特别是高原上空的急流越强时,中国大部分地区冬季气温偏低。     

Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia

A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.     

北极臭氧损耗对初春东亚中高纬地区地面气温影响的观测分析

利用1948—2007年NCEP/NCAR月平均2m地面气温再分析资料、3月北极涛动（AO）指数和春季臭氧含量资料,采用合成分析方法分析了北极臭氧损耗对初春东亚中高纬地区地面气温的影响。结果表明,臭氧低（高）值年,3月东亚中高纬地区地面气温存在正（负）异常。4月的与3月类似,但气温异常的幅度减小,中心位置也有所变化。对...     

大规模植被恢复对东亚气候的可能影响

利用动态植被模型CLM4-CNDV、区域气候模式RegCM4.6-CLM3.5和全球气候模式CAM4探究了当前气候状态下东亚区域可能的自然植被分布以及自然植被恢复对东亚区域气候产生的可能影响。结果表明,当前气候条件下,农作物区可能分布的自然植被为:蒙古高原以北、东北、华北平原和四川盆地的部分地区为裸土;东亚东南部及蒙古高原以北地区主要为林地;四川盆地及山东半岛主要为灌木;东北地区、东南沿海和长江中下游地区主要为草地。将农作物区恢复为自然植被后将对区域气候产生显著影响。其中,东亚东部大部分地区由于植被叶面积指数增加引起的蒸散发增强,使得夏季降水增加且温度降低显著;华北、四川盆地和广东中部平原地区植被叶面积指数减小,伴随区域内夏季降水显著减少且温度升高。而蒙古高原地区的气候变化不仅受区域内植被覆盖变化影响,还可能与印度地区和我国东南部植被变化引起的大气环流调整有关,使得蒙古高原西部冬季温度降低,而其东部夏季温度升高,同时夏季降水减少显著。研究所采用的试验方案是在相对理想的情况下进行的,但其结果为进一步区分不同地区植被覆盖变化的影响提供一定的参考。     

WRF模式不同云微物理参数化方案对东亚夏季风模拟影响的研究

利用WRF v3.2.1模式,采用其中5种云微物理参数化方案对2007—2011年的东亚夏季风气候进行了模拟研究,结果显示:5种方案均能较好地模拟出我国东部地区夏季降水的基本分布,但各方案对降水中心强度及其分布的模拟仍然存在明显的差异,总体来看,WDM6方案模拟的东亚夏季降水强度明显比其他4种方案大,而Morrison方案对降水的模拟总体效果好于其他4种方案。从云微物理角度来看,5种云微物理参数化方案均能比较合理地描述云水、雨水及冰相粒子的空间分布状态。其中,WSM3方案计算的云水、雨水质量混合比明显比其它方案大,WDM6方案计算的云水质量混合比则较小,而Morrison方案计算的雨水质量混合比较小,再者该方案冷云中霰粒子浓度偏小,因而Morrison方案在粤闽两省的夏季日降水量模拟比其他方案小,从而与TRMM观测结果更为接近。采用5种云微物理参数化方案均能较好地模拟出春、夏季西太平洋副高、雨带和大气水凝物在东亚地区的季节进退过程。5种方案模拟的雨水粒子浓度分布和中纬度雨带在南北进退过程中的位置较为吻合,两者均跟随西太平洋副高北进、南退。对于中低纬度存在的大降水中心来说,其位置少动,并且与该地区存在的的冰晶、雪晶粒子的高值中心具有较好的对应关系,说明在中低纬度地区,与热带对流相伴随的较高层次的冰相粒子数的浓度是决定降水强弱的关键因素。