基于AR模型和神经网络的舰船水压信号检测方法

为了有效地从风浪背景中检测舰船水压场信号，根据舰船水压场信号和波浪噪声信号的差异，以时间序列的AR模型理论为依据，采用基于AR模型和神经网络的舰船水压信号检测方法。该检测算法的核心是将检测问题转化为模式识别问题，首先对接收信号建立AR模型并提取AR模型系数作为特征向量，然后利用人工神经网络对信号进行检测。在此基础上，通过不同浪级情况下海浪水压力场的仿真信号数据，对某型目标舰船的水压力信号进行了检测计算，验证了该方法的有效性，尤其是达到了在高海况、低信噪比条件下，对目标信号检测率比较高、虚警率比较低的效果。     

基于AR模型的盲源分离方法

不同时间结构的平稳随机信号具有不同的模型结构,平稳随机信号可以由白噪声激励一自回归(AR)模型得到,在某种意义上AR模型与线性预测模型等价.因此,在盲源分离中线性预测模型可以作为度量信号分离的测度.为此从信号预测模型的角度出发分析推导了一种新的盲源分离算法,并进行了计算机仿真验证,实验结果表明该算法简单有效,便于工程实...     

基于灰色模型和SVD估计AR(p)参数的物联网数据传输控制

为了进一步提高基于物联网的监控系统的可靠性和延长其网络生命周期,设计了一种基于灰色模型GM(1,1)和自回归AR(p)的对物联网监测区域中的数据传输进行控制的有效方法;首先,定义了基于GM(1,1)和自回归AR(p)的预测混合模型并对其运行原理进行了描述,然后,提出了采用最小二乘法对GM(1,1)的参数进行估计以获得预测模型,以总体最小二乘为评价准则,设计了基于SVD(sigular value decomposition,SVD)的AR(p)参数估计方法,最后将两种预测模型获得的结果进行加权融合作为最终的预测值;仿真实验表明,文中设计的基于GM(1,1)和自回归AR(p)模型的预测方法能较为精确地传感器节点在未来时刻采集的数据进行预测,同时由于节点预测的精确性,避免了其与基站之间的冗余数据传输,延长了网络生命周期,具有很强的可行性。     

灰预测与时间序列模型在航天器故障预测中的应用

灰预测是灰色系统理论的重要组成部分,已成功应用于若干领域的预测;时间序列分析是定量预测方法之一;研究了利用以灰预测模型为基础,建立的残差灰预测模型和AR时间序列模型对航天器故障状态进行预测的方法;首先分析了灰预测模型以及残差灰色预测模型的建立过程,之后分析了AR时间序列模型的建立过程;然后利用所建立的模型进行航天器故障状态的预测,给出预测结果;研究表明,残差灰预测模型预测误差比基本灰模型降低,在特定的数据特征条件下也要优于AR时间序列模型.     

基于神经网络和小波分解的目标信号检测方法研究

将小波分解和神经网络相结合，应用于高海况、低信噪比条件下水中目标信号的特征提取中。文中首先对信号进行多尺度小波分解，利用目标信号功率主要集中在低频部分的特点，提取在不同频率带内信号的能量作为特征，然后利用人工神经网络对目标信号进行检测。在此基础上，通过不同浪级情况下海洋水压力场的仿真信号数据，对某型目标舰船的水压力信号进行了检测计算．验证了该方法的有效性，达到了在高海况、低信噪比条件下，目标信号检测率比较高、虚警率比较低的效果。     

基于小波变换的网络流量预测模型应用研究

研究优化网络性能问题,因网络流量数据具有很强的突发性和自相似性等分形特征,引起系统流量不稳定和不精确,用传统网络流量预测模型预测准确低.为解决上述问题,提出一种基于小波变换(WT)的自回归(AR)预测模型,首先对原始流量数据进行小波分解,并将分解得到的近似部分和各细节部分分别单支重构到原级别上,对各个重构后的序列分别建立自回归模型,由所拟合的模型分别进行预测,最后结合各个重构后序列的预测结果,得到对原始序列的预测结果.运用WT_AR进行仿真实验,实验结果表明模型比传统的网络流量预测模型具有更高的准确度.证明WT_AR是一种高效的网络流量检测模型,网络流量预测方法提供参考依据.     

基于神经网络方法的水声信号预测

由于海洋环境的复杂性和水声信道复杂的时变、空变特性，使得舰船辐射噪声是一种非平稳、非高斯过程。如能提前预测敌方舰船的辐射噪声，并有效地对敌进行水下对抗，先敌使用武器攻击，是克敌制胜的前提，也是我海军目前各型潜艇和水面舰艇急需解决的关键技术。文章根据水声信号的特点建立了预测模型和网络结构参数的设计。并分别采用BP神经网络和RBF神经网络对仿真信号和实际舰船水声信号进行预测。结果表明，利用神经网络预测水声信号达到了一定的效果，为今后进一步开展水声信号预测研究奠定了基础。     

改进的自动回归网格主机负载预测模型

网格计算中对资源的有效预测能很好的改进任务分配和作业调度的策略，提高它们的执行效率，作为网格资源预测的核心？主机负载的预测显得尤为重要。文中提出了一种基于AR改进的主机负载预测模型，它不仅具有AR模型本身的计算成本小、预测性能稳定的优点，还对AR模型只对未来某个固定时间段的负载预测进行了改进，使之能根据作业的预测执行时间进行主机负载动态预测，同时该改进模型还充分体现了主机负载变化的自相似性和长期依赖性，实验结果表明，该模型达到了预期的效果。     

一种新的基于AR* -GRNN的QoS降载管理框架

在过载环境下不是很高的降载比率很可能要丢失要分析的全部信息,故有效地获取流数据的信息是流数据挖掘的关键问题.本文建立基于AR* -GRNN的QoS降载管理框架,提高过载环境下流数据的相似性查询效率.利用离散傅立叶变换(Discrete Fourier Transform,DFT)来获取数据的特征值,运用混合预测模型(时间序列类模型(AR*)-Generalized RegressionNeural Network,AR* -GRNN)和历史的特征值来预测降载部分数据的特征值,建立自适应的降载计划,从而完成降载发生情况下的相似性查询分析.     

基于双重预测模型的非线性时间序列预测

在支持向量机( SVM)预测问题中,为了减小错误参数选取对预测结果的影响,提出了1种基于双重预测模型的非线性时间序列预测算法.该算法在充分考虑支持向量机参数对推广能力影响的基础上,分别利用自回归预测模型(AR)、自回归滑动平均模型( ARMA)、线性回归和决策树模型对SVM参数进行预测,将预测参数运用到SVM预测模型中...     

Hybrid modeling of wire cable vibration isolation system through neural network

A hybrid modeling method based on neural network (NN) is developed and used to model the hysteretic restoring force of a wire cable vibration isolation system for electronic equipment. Firstly, a knowledge-based model for the nonlinear hysteretic restoring force is identified using the measured data obtained from period loading tests. Secondly, the remaining characteristic of hysteretic restoring force, which cannot be modeled in an easy way, is identified using the NN method through network training. By building up a parallel hybrid NN model for the nonlinear hysteretic restoring force, the dynamic responses of the vibration isolation system under harmonic and broad band random excitations are predicted. The predicted results are compared with the measured ones to validate the effectiveness and prediction accuracy of the model. The comparative studies show the developed hybrid NN model possesses good prediction accuracy and generalization capability in contrast with the pure black box NN model.     

Robustness design of fuzzy control for nonlinear multiple time-delay large-scale systems via neural-network-based approach

The stabilization problem is considered in this correspondence for a nonlinear multiple time-delay large-scale system. First, the neural-network (NN) model is employed to approximate each subsystem. Then, a linear differential inclusion (LDI) state-space representation is established for the dynamics of each NN model. According to the LDI state-space representation, a robustness design of fuzzy control is proposed to overcome the effect of modeling errors between subsystems and NN models. Next, in terms of Lyapunov's direct method, a delay-dependent stability criterion is derived to guarantee the asymptotic stability of nonlinear multiple time-delay large-scale systems. Finally, based on this criterion and the decentralized control scheme, a set of fuzzy controllers is synthesized to stabilize the nonlinear multiple time-delay large-scale system.     

基于映射矩阵的网络流量分析预测模型

通过对用户行为分析,发现IP数据流具有平稳性、自相关性等特点,提出基于映射矩阵流量预测模型,并与线性模型AR、ARIMA和非线性基于反馈神经网络BP模型、Elman神经网络作对比,试验结果证明,映射矩阵模型,比现有模型具有预测精度高、收敛快等特点。     

NN-based Prediction Interval for Nonlinear Processes Controller

Neural networks (NNs) are extensively used in modelling, optimization, and control of nonlinear plants. NN-based inverse type point prediction models are commonly used for nonlinear process control. However, prediction errors (root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) etc.) significantly increase in the presence of disturbances and uncertainties. In contrast to point forecast, prediction interval (PI)-based forecast bears extra information such as the prediction accuracy. The PI provides tighter upper and lower bounds with considering uncertainties due to the model mismatch and time dependent or time independent noises for a given confidence level. The use of PIs in the NN controller (NNC) as additional inputs can improve the controller performance. In the present work, the PIs are utilized in control applications, in particular PIs are integrated in the NN internal model-based control framework. A PI-based model that developed using lower upper bound estimation method (LUBE) is used as an online estimator of PIs for the proposed PI-based controller (PIC). PIs along with other inputs for a traditional NN are used to train the PIC to predict the control signal. The proposed controller is tested for two case studies. These include, a chemical reactor, which is a continuous stirred tank reactor (case 1) and a numerical nonlinear plant model (case 2). Simulation results reveal that the tracking performance of the proposed controller is superior to the traditional NNC in terms of setpoint tracking and disturbance rejections. More precisely, 36% and 15% improvements can be achieved using the proposed PIC over the NNC in terms of IAE for case 1 and case 2, respectively for setpoint tracking with step changes.

     

基于数据包字节长度的线性自回归(Autoregression)和支持向量分类机(SVM)的网络流量预测建模与分析

本文提供了两种网络流量入侵检测的方法和它们的结果对比。这两种方法分别为线性的自回归预测以及非线性的支持向量机预测。本文将给出使用这两种方法在预测网络攻击的夺效性的详细分析。实验证明用支持向量机模型确实改进了对于攻击的识别性能，并且其误警率比AR模型低了很多。此外，与SVM相比较，AR预测模型的计算复杂度要低。     

基于时变自回归模型的非平稳数据预测方法研究

针对现有的自回归（Autoregressive,AR）模型对非平稳数据预测效果不佳的问题,提出了基于时变自回归（Time-Varying Autoregressive,TVAR）模型的时序预测方法.针对某型国产飞机发动机的低压转速信号,使用TVAR模型分别进行点预测和区间预测,并与AR模型的点预测结果进行对比.研究结果表明,TVAR模型能够很好地反映非平稳数据的变化趋势.在给定置信水平下,TVAR预测区间能够包含真实数据,因此TVAR模型在时序预测中具有更好的预测效果.     

A new feature selection method based on association rules for diagnosis of erythemato-squamous diseases

In this paper, a new feature selection method based on Association Rules (AR) and Neural Network (NN) is presented for the diagnosis of erythemato-squamous diseases. AR is used for reducing the dimension of erythemato-squamous diseases dataset and NN is used for efficient classification. The proposed AR+NN system performance is compared with that of other feature selection algorithms+NN. The dimension of input feature space is reduced from thirty four to twenty four by using AR. In test stage, 3-fold cross validation method is applied to the erythemato-squamous diseases dataset to evaluate the proposed system performances. The correct classification rate of proposed system is 98.61%. This research demonstrated that the AR can be used for reducing the dimension of feature space and proposed AR+NN model can be used to obtain fast automatic diagnostic systems for other diseases.     

Choosing the parameters of the NARMA model implemented with the recurrent perceptron for speech prediction

Speech signals have statistically nonstationary properties and cannot be processed properly by means of classical linear parametric models (AR, MA, ARMA). The neural network approach to time series prediction is suitable for learning and recognizing the nonlinear nature of the speech signal. We present a neural implementation of the NARMA model (nonlinear ARMA) and test it on a class of speech signals, spoken by both men and women in different dialects of the English language. The Akaike’s information criterion is proposed for the selection of the parameters of the NARMA model.     

Self-Adaptive Output Tracking with Applications to Active Binocular Tracking

In this article we present a neurally-inspired self-adaptive active binocular tracking scheme and an efficient mathematical model for online computation of desired binocular-head trajectories. The self-adaptive neural network (NN) model is general and can be adopted in output tracking schemes of any partly known robotic systems. The tracking scheme ingeniously combines the conventional Resolved Velocity Control (RVC) technique and an adaptive compensating NN model constructed using SoftMax basis functions as nonlinear activation function. Desired trajectories to the servo controller are computed online by the use of a suitable linear kinematics mathematical model of the system. Online weight tuning algorithm guarantees tracking with small errors and error rates as well as bounded NN weights.