Multivariate statistical analysis to identify the major factors governing groundwater quality in the coastal area of Kimje,South Korea

The main purpose of this study is to identify the major factors affecting groundwater quality by means of multivariate statistical analysis of the physico‐chemical compositions. Cluster analysis results show that the groundwater in the study area is classified into four groups (A, B, C and D), and factor analysis indicates that groundwater composition, 81·9% of the total variance of 17 variables, is mainly affected by three factors: seawater intrusion, microbial activity and chemical fertilizers. These results might be related to the geographical characteristics of the study area. The main influence on groundwater in groups B, C and D, which are close to the Yellow Sea and contain reclaimed areas, is the seawater intrusion by the present seawater, the trapped seawater, and microbial activity. Group A, however, has been used for agriculture for a long time, and thus groundwater in this group has been largely affected by chemical fertilizers. As groundwater flows from group A to group D according to its path, the governing factor of the groundwater quality gradually changes from chemical fertilizers to microbial activity and seawater intrusion. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The analysis of turbulence time series: Statistical and correlation approaches using the minitab package

The theoretical basis and use of statistical and correlation approaches for the analysis of turbulence time series are described. In particular, the analysis of data from high frequency current meter measurements using MINITAB is presented and the data files and analytical routines are included on the software disk.     

Singular spectrum analysis and forecasting of hydrological time series

The singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique is applied to some hydrological univariate time series to assess its ability to uncover important information from those series, and also its forecast skill. The SSA is carried out on annual precipitation, monthly runoff, and hourly water temperature time series. Information is obtained by extracting important components or, when possible, the whole signal from the time series. The extracted components are then subject to forecast by the SSA algorithm. It is illustrated the SSA ability to extract a slowly varying component (i.e. the trend) from the precipitation time series, the trend and oscillatory components from the runoff time series, and the whole signal from the water temperature time series. The SSA was also able to accurately forecast the extracted components of these time series.     

基于复杂度理论的地磁变化场时间序列特征分析

复杂度理论为研究地磁变化场提供了新思路和新途径.地磁变化场从物理起源上可以看作是一种复杂系统,因此,本文从军事工程应用需求出发,基于复杂度理论,提出运用样本熵、多尺度熵及滑动窗样本熵方法对不同磁扰程度下的地磁变化场时间序列进行复杂度特征分析,结果表明：（1）样本熵和多尺度熵能够很好地表征地磁扰动强度及演化特征,启发我们可设计一种新的“熵指数”来衡量地磁扰动大小;（2）滑动窗样本熵能够准确定位地磁扰动时间段,对于磁暴识别与预测、空间灾害性天气预警等有一定的参考价值;（3）Mackey-Glass时滞混沌方程随时间的演化呈现出与地磁场日变曲线非常相似的形态,因此,地磁变化场或许可用时滞混沌方程来表示,对于我们更好地认识地磁变化场物理机理、建模预测与地磁寻的等军事工程应用都有一定的意义.     

潮汐效应对沿海多条带时序InSAR地表形变监测的影响

潮汐效应对沿海大范围、高精度的合成孔径雷达干涉测量(Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, InSAR)技术地表形变监测的影响不可忽略. 潮汐效应中的固体潮(Solid Earth Tide, SET)位移和海洋潮汐负荷(Ocean Tide Loading, OTL)位移会在时间和空间域上对沿海大范围InSAR地表形变监测产生分米级的误差, 而且不同条带中地表潮汐形变时空差异性会对多条带InSAR影像拼接产生较大误差. 本文针对沿海地区多条带InSAR形变时序, 重点分析了潮汐效应在不同条带InSAR地表沉降监测中的影响, 并采用多种潮汐位移估计方法对多条带地表潮汐形变进行改正. 结果表明, 研究区域不同条带时序InSAR中地表潮汐形变具有较大的时空差异性, 其造成沿海地区相邻条带时序InSAR地表沉降速率差异能达到1~2 cm·a^-1; 通过固体潮模型、海潮负荷模型或GPS参考站网海潮位移改正, 能够消除不同条带中地表潮汐形变时空差异性对时序InSAR形变结果拼接产生的空间高阶非线性误差, 弥补了传统拼接方法在拟合潮汐位移偏差的不足. 在大气延迟误差改正的基础上, 时序InSAR形变残差的标准差(Standard Deviation, STD)由潮汐改正前的2.3 cm减少至0.75 cm; 本文研究揭示了沿海地表潮汐形变改正对多条带时序InSAR形变结果拼接的重要性, 可大幅提高沿海地区广域时序InSAR地表形变监测的精度.

     

Analysis and interpretation of patterns within and between hydroclimatological time series in an alpine glacier basin

This paper explores patterns within and between climatological and hydrological time series from an alpine glacier basin. Time series recorded in the basin of the Haut Glacier d'Arolla over the 1989 ablation season are subdivided into five subperiods. Box-Jenkins ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) and TFN (Transfer Function-Noise) models are estimated for each of the five subperiods and differences between the models are interpreted in the context of changing glacier hydrology, particularly the changing nature and extent of the glacier drainage network.     

Recognition of environmentally caused variations in radon time series

Four techniques (pattern recognition, Fourier transformation, cross-correlation, and multiple linear regression) have been used to recognize nontectonic environmental factors affecting groundwater radon data collected by the Caltech automated geochemical network. Several factors, including air temperature, rainfall, water level, carbon dioxide concentration in the water, and barometric pressure, were found to correlate with radon level at some stations in the network. For example, approximately 60% of the variance in radon signal at one site studied (Pacoima) could be accounted for by nontectonic influences. However, it was not possible to correlate all the observed changes in radon concentration with nontectonic environmental variables. Some of the observed radon anomalies did appear to be related to either regional changes in tectonic strain or some individual earthquakes. A model is developed to account for spike-like increases in radon caused by carbon dioxide emission.     

南极半岛地区GPS坐标时间序列噪声分析及形变模式初探

有色噪声广泛存在于各种连续GPS站坐标时间序列,对GPS时间序列分析有重要影响.利用GAMIT/GLOBK软件解算了南极半岛地区8个GPS测站2010—2014年的实测数据,对坐标时间序列使用主分量分析法(PCA)进行了空间滤波,利用CATS软件估计了不同噪声模型下和空间滤波前后的噪声量级、站坐标时间序列参数及其不确定度,最后对南极半岛地区水平和垂向的形变模式进行了分析和讨论.结果表明,南极半岛地区GPS时间序列不仅存在白噪声,还存在较大量级的闪烁噪声,部分测站E方向在滤波前可能存在随机游走噪声;空间滤波能够有效降低这三种噪声的量级,从而有效减小线性项和周期项估计的不确定度;南极半岛地区在水平方向主要表现为板块运动,还可能存在局部性构造运动;在垂直方向上由冰川均衡调整(Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, GIA)因素引起的抬升较小,主要表现为现今冰雪质量损失引起的弹性抬升运动.     

Tidal effects on variations of fresh–saltwater interface and groundwater flow in a multilayered coastal aquifer on a volcanic island (Jeju Island, Korea)

We conducted various field studies at the seawater intrusion monitoring wells located in the eastern part of Jeju Island, Korea, to observe the tidal effect on groundwater–seawater flow in the coastal aquifer. Studies included monitoring the fluctuations of groundwater and tide levels, electrical and temperature logging, and 2-D heat-pulse flowmeter tests. According to time-series analysis, tidal effects on groundwater level reached up to 3 km inland from the coastline. Water-level variation was more sensitive to tidal fluctuations near the coast, and more related to rainfall toward inland areas. Temporal and spatial variations in the shape and location of the freshwater–saltwater interface were analyzed using data from nine monitoring wells. The results indicated that the interface toe is located at a distance of 6–8 km from the coastline and its location was related to geological layers present. Long-term seasonal variations revealed no major changes in the interface; minor variations were due to moving boundary conditions induced by tidal fluctuations. Using the two-dimensional heat-pulse flowmeter, groundwater flow directions and velocities at four tidal stages were measured on three monitoring wells drilled into the multilayered aquifers. This direct measurement enabled us to relate the differences of flow velocities and directions with geology and tidal fluctuations. Combining the results of EC logging and flowmeter tests, we found a zone where freshwater and saltwater moved alternately in opposite directions, as influenced by the tidal fluctuations. Integrating various physical logging and flowmeter data with water-level fluctuations improved our understanding of the behavior of fresh and seawater flow in the coastal aquifers.     

Spatial and temporal changes in the structure of groundwater nitrate concentration time series (1935–1999) as demonstrated by autoregressive modelling

Autoregressive modelling is used to investigate the internal structure of long-term (1935–1999) records of nitrate concentration for five karst springs in the Mendip Hills. There is a significant short term (1–2 months) positive autocorrelation at three of the five springs due to the availability of sufficient nitrate within the soil store to maintain concentrations in winter recharge for several months. The absence of short term (1–2 months) positive autocorrelation in the other two springs is due to the marked contrast in land use between the limestone and swallet parts of the catchment, rapid concentrated recharge from the latter causing short term switching in the dominant water source at the spring and thus fluctuating nitrate concentrations. Significant negative autocorrelation is evident at lags varying from 4 to 7 months through to 14–22 months for individual springs, with positive autocorrelation at 19–20 months at one site. This variable timing is explained by moderation of the exhaustion effect in the soil by groundwater storage, which gives longer residence times in large catchments and those with a dominance of diffuse flow. The lags derived from autoregressive modelling may therefore provide an indication of average groundwater residence times. Significant differences in the structure of the autocorrelation function for successive 10-year periods are evident at Cheddar Spring, and are explained by the effect the ploughing up of grasslands during the Second World War and increased fertiliser usage on available nitrogen in the soil store. This effect is moderated by the influence of summer temperatures on rates of mineralization, and of both summer and winter rainfall on the timing and magnitude of nitrate leaching. The pattern of nitrate leaching also appears to have been perturbed by the 1976 drought.     

Application of spatial EOF and multivariate time series model for evaluating agricultural drought vulnerability in Korea

This study proposed a methodology using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate time series model for the analysis of drought both in time and space. The methodology proposed was then applied to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural drought of major river basins in Korea. First, the three-month SPI data from 59 rain gauge stations over the Korean Peninsula were analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. The shapes of major estimated EOFs were found to well reflect the observed spatial pattern of droughts. Second, the coefficient time series of estimated EOFs were then fitted by a multivariate time series model to generate the SPI data for 10,000 years, which were used to derive the annual maxima series of areal average drought severity over the Korean Peninsula. These annual maxima series were then analyzed to determine the mean drought severity for given return periods. Four typical spatial patterns of drought severity could also be selected for those return periods considered. This result shows that the southern part of the Korean Peninsula is most vulnerable to drought than the other parts. Finally, the agricultural drought vulnerability was evaluated by considering the potential water supply from dams. In an ideal case, when all the maximum dam storage was assumed to be assigned to agriculture, all river basins in Korea were found to have the potential to overcome a 30-year drought. However, under more realistic conditions considering average dam storage and water allocation priorities, most of the river basins could not overcome a 30-year drought.     

三门湾沿海声层析潮流观测实验

2009年9月6日至9日在三门湾进行了沿海声层析(Coastal Acoustic Tomography,CAT)潮流观测实验.实验由7台沿海声层析仪组网进行,并分别由渔船定点抛锚于7个站位.实验期间,还进行了定点ADCP(Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler)观测.通过建立逆模式对声传播时间差进行解析,引入权重因子,用L-curve法确定阻尼因子的最佳值,继而根据阻尼最小二乘法得到流速的最佳解.根据逆模式得到的流速分布可知该海区的潮流以半日潮(M2)为主,M2潮流椭圆呈东南-西北走向,潮流基本都是顺着水道,即涨潮为西北流向,退潮为东南流向.西北向与东南向最大流速分别为1.03 m·s-1和1.09 m·s-1.实验期间该区域的余流是从湾外流入湾内,平均流速约为0.05 m·s-1.CAT与定点ADCP流速的东分量和北分量的均方差均小于0.18 m·s-1.这样大面积的潮流和余流水平分布的同步观测,用传统观测手段很难实现.通过以上结果可以得出,沿海声层析技术可以作为一种新的测流方法对强潮海区进行大面积潮流观测,可在我国沿海的海洋环境监测等方面发挥重要作用.     

基于长时序T/P和Jason系列卫星高度计数据的中国南海潮汐信息提取研究

本文利用j、v模型对26年长时间序列的多个卫星高度计(TOPEX/Poseidon和Jason-1、Jason-2、Jason-3)变轨前后两种轨道的数据,使用调和分析法提取南海M₂、S₂、K₁和O₁分潮的调和常数.首次将Jason-3高度计数据用于潮汐信息提取研究,证明了Jason-3高度计与Jason-2高度计数据具有较好的一致性和连续性,且数据可用性强.提出并使用回归诊断法分析卫星轨道的交叉点处上升轨和下降轨之间调和分析结果的误差和相关系数,同时检验与评估潮汐信息提取方法的稳定性;选取南海47个验潮站,将验潮站实测数据与得到的卫星高度计数据提取的调和分析结果进行比较,进而检验潮汐提取结果的精度.最后,绘制同潮图验证提取潮汐调和常数的准确性.结果表明:M₂、S₂、K₁和O₁分潮的振幅均方根分别为4.28 cm、2.24 cm、2.92 cm、3.10 cm,迟角均方根分别为10.88°、11.10°、7.95...     

地下水超采区水位长趋势动态分析

地下水多年过量开采水位持续下降, 不仅在观测资料中叠加了大量的疑似地震前兆, 严重地压低了来自孕震体的信息, 而且使正常的地震长、 中、 短周期变化背景扭曲, 前兆异常更加难辨。 本研究采用“线性拟合去趋势方法”对水位多年观测资料进行了分析。 分析结果表明, 线性拟合去趋势后水位10年左右的准周期结构清楚, 能有效地排除地下水超采的影响, 突出正常趋势变化背景, 放大潮汐信息量, 便于识别地震前兆。     

Seemingly unrelated intervention time series models for effectiveness evaluation of large scale environmental remediation

Large scale environmental remediation projects applied to sea water always involve large amount of capital investments. Rigorous effectiveness evaluations of such projects are, therefore, necessary and essential for policy review and future planning. This study aims at investigating effectiveness of environmental remediation using three different Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) time series models with intervention effects, including Model (1) assuming no correlation within and across variables, Model (2) assuming no correlation across variable but allowing correlations within variable across different sites, and Model (3) allowing all possible correlations among variables (i.e., an unrestricted model). The results suggested that the unrestricted SUR model is the most reliable one, consistently having smallest variations of the estimated model parameters. We discussed our results with reference to marine water quality management in Hong Kong while bringing managerial issues into consideration.     

顾及共性误差的南极半岛地区连续GPS站坐标时间序列分析

共性误差是区域连续GPS网络中存在的一种与时空相关的主要误差源.对区域网络使用空间滤波能够有效减小这种误差并改善坐标时间序列的精度.本文使用GAMIT/GLOBK 10.5软件解算南极半岛区域11个GPS测站2010-2014的数据,各测站独立估计的单天解组成坐标时间序列.利用堆栈法（stacking）、主分量分析法（principal component analysis,简称PCA）和Karhunen-Loeve展开法（KLE）对其进行空间滤波,在利用PCA和KLE方法进行空间滤波时,使用前两个主分量作为共有模式分量.结果表明：三种方法均能有效提取南极半岛区域共性误差, PCA方法的滤波效果明显优于stacking方法,略微优于KLE方法;空间滤波能够有效减小残差时间序列的振幅、功率和RMS;对坐标时间序列进行空间滤波能够有效降低其线性项和周期项误差,从而提高线性项和周期项估计的精度.共性误差的谱分析结果显示在U方向上存在9.4天、13.7天等短周期的信号,推测共性误差组成成分中可能含有与海潮相关的误差源.     

利用华北地区承压井水位资料反演含水层体应变

承压井水位的变化反映了含水层孔隙压力的变化,而含水层孔隙压力的变化与含水层所受的压力状态有密切的关系。本文利用华北地区反应固体潮较好的承压井水位资料,通过计算各井孔的潮汐因子并提取有效的水位趋势信息,反演了华北地区现有承压井孔含水层体应变,并绘制了2009~2012年半年尺度的等值线图。结果显示,本文计算结果能在一定程度上反映出华北地区深层的应力应变状态。     

香港GPS基准站坐标序列特征分析

利用香港GPS连续运行参考站网络2001年1月至2007年8月的观测资料,全面深入地分析了12个基准站坐标序列特征.本文采用主成分空间滤波算法去除公共误差,来提高坐标序列的信噪比,并采用最大似然估计准则定量估计滤波后坐标序列的噪声特性,计算了地球表面质量负荷（包括大气、非潮汐海洋、积雪和土壤水）对香港GPS基准站坐标序列的影响.研究结果表明：香港GPS基准站坐标序列具有高度的空间相关性,其公共误差具有较强的季节性变化特征;地表质量负荷变化引起的香港地壳形变可以解释公共误差序列中约为3mm的垂向周年变化,经过质量负荷改正后的公共误差序列与高阶电离层误差高度相关;滤波后坐标序列的噪声特性可以用可变白噪声加闪烁噪声模型来描述,顾及闪烁噪声所计算的速度误差要比只考虑可变白噪声计算的速度误差大2~6倍;基准站间存在达1.5 mm/yr的相对水平运动,揭示香港地区存在活动断层;部分基准站坐标具有明显的振幅为1～2 mm本地季节性变化,所有测站的残差序列也表现出强烈的季节性变化.     

Impacts of marine debris on wild animals in the coastal area of Korea

Over the last decade, marine debris has become a major factor affecting the coastal ecosystem of Korea. This study compiled information regarding how marine debris impacts wildlife in Korea. Cases of marine debris impacting wildlife were collected from experts of various fields and from local participants through an open access website from February 2010 to March 2012. A total of 21 species were affected by marine debris: 18 species of birds, 2 species of mammals, and 1 species of crustacean. Five threatened or protected species were identified: black-faced spoonbill, finless porpoise, water deer, whooper swan, and greater painted snipe. Recreational fishing gears were the types of debris that most frequently impacted wildlife, especially birds. Black tailed gulls were the most vulnerable species to recreational fishing hooks and lines. Although it was preliminary, this study revealed that recreational fishing activities should be prioritized when managing marine debris in Korea.     

Prediction analysis of long-term memory effect for calamity gray series

Are human able to foresee the future? For thou-sands of years close attention has been paid to this issue. At the present day, in order to survive from competition and to predominate over the nature, hu-man抯 desire of forecasting things has become more and more intense. Compared to conquering space, more people yearn for being able to control the time. From ancient to the present, mankind always dream of contacting the past, governing the present and tran-scending the future. Recent years in…