Uncertainties of the 50-year wave height estimation using generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions in the Indian Shelf seas

Natural Hazards - Information about waves with specific return period in a region is essential for the safe design of marine facilities. In this study, significant wave height for 50-year return...     

Granularity and textural analysis as a proxy for extreme wave events in southeast coast of India

Extreme wave events of 1000 and 1500 years (radiocarbon ages) have been recently reported in Mahabalipuram region, southeast coast of India. Subsequently, we carried out extensive sedimenttological analysis in regions covering a total lateral coverage of 12 km with a new archeological site as the central portion of the study area. Twelve trenches in shore normal profiles exhibit landward thinning sequences as well as upward fining sequences confirming with the global signatures of extreme wave events. The sediment size ranges from fine-to-medium and moderately well sorted-to-well sorted, and exhibit positive skewness with platykurtic-to-leptokurtic nature. We now propose the abrupt winnowing or back and forth motion including unidirectional transport of these deposited sediments, which results in positive skewness. Textural analyses derived from scanning electron microscope studies (SEM) demonstrate the alteration produced, in the ilmenite mineral with vivid presence of pits and crescents with deformation observed on the surface due to extreme wave activities. This is further confirmed with the predominance of high-density mineral such as magnetite (5.2) and other heavy minerals in these deposits inferred the high-intensity of the reworking process of the beach shelf sediments.     

Operational wave prediction of extreme storms in Northern Europe

The disastrous effects of numerous winter storms on the marine environment in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea during the last decade show that wind waves generated by strong winds actually represent natural hazards and require high quality wave forecast systems as warning tools to avoid losses due to the impact of rough seas. Hence, the operational wave forecast system running at the German Weather Service including a regional wave model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is checked extensively whether it provides reasonable wave forecasts, especially for periods of extraordinary high sea states during winter storms. For two selected extreme storm events that induced serious damage in the area of interest, comprehensive comparisons between wave measurements and wave model forecast data are accomplished. Spectral data as well as integrated parameters are considered, and the final outcome of the corresponding comparisons and statistical analysis is encouraging. Over and above the capability to provide good short-term forecast results, the regional wave model is able to predict extreme events as severe winter storms connected with extraordinary high waves already about 2 days in advance. Therefore, it represents an appropriate warning tool for offshore activities and coastal environment.     

Modified Weibull-derived spectrum for deep water significant wave height estimation

The modified Weibull spectrum is utilized to calculate the zeroth spectral moment (m_o) using Monte Carlo integration methods. Then significant wave height (H_s) is calculated using the formula This is validated with observed buoy data and numerical wave model (WAM) predicted significant wave heights. The Weibull parameters have been calculated using energy densities from observed spectra recorded by DS5 buoy (13.80° N, 82.52° E, depth 3355.48 m) by the method of maximum likelihood (MLE).The relative root mean square error (RRMS) and relative bias error criteria show that modified Weibull spectrum estimated significant wave heights are better than those predicted by WAM model. The monthly averaged observed wave power spectra for the year 2005 recorded by deep water buoy DS5 is considered in this work. The spectra exhibit bimodal sea states for several months of the year.     

Application of Weibull model for redefined significant wave height distributions

It is well accepted that the parent distribution for individual ocean wave heights follows the Weibull model. However this model does not simulate significant wave height which is the average of the highest one-third of some ‘n’ (n- varies) wave heights in a wave record. It is now proposed to redefine significant wave height as average of the highest one-third of a constant number (n-constant, say,n = 100) of consecutive individual wave heights. The Weibull model is suggested for simulating redefined significant wave height distribution by the method of characteristic function. An empirical support of 100.00% is established by Χ²-test at 0.05 level of significance for 3 sets of data at 0900, 1200 and 1500 hrs at Valiathura, Kerala coast. Parametric relations have been derived for the redefined significant wave height parameters such as mean, maximum one-third average, extreme wave heights, return periods of an extreme wave height and the probability of realising an extreme wave height in a time less than the designated return period.     

Spatial impulse waves: wave height decay experiments at laboratory scale

Impulse waves generated by rapid subaerial landslides into water bodies may pose a threat to riparian settlements and infrastructure. Empirically derived prediction equations based on experiments at laboratory scale provide information on key wave characteristics for preliminary hazard assessment. This research discusses existing prediction methods for spatial wave propagation features and compares their results with own impulse wave height decay experiments. While some prediction methods are based on simplified approaches for wave generation such as rigid body slides, others take only limited sets of slide parameters into account, narrowing their range of applicability considerably. The prediction methods are intentionally applied outside their ranges of applicability with the aim to assess their characteristics on an extended parameter range. It is found that a combination of separate terms for wave generation and wave propagation from two different existing prediction methods provides the best representation of the experimental data.     

干贮粉煤灰降水渗透深度的统计分析

根据某热电厂贮灰场模拟降水30 mm、50 mm、100 mm和150 mm的试验数据,采用统计方法分析不同降水强度下粉煤灰随着降水渗透至地下的深度,以确定各种降水条件下贮灰场渗滤液是否能够达到含水层,造成地下水污染。运用箱线图直观了解不同降水量下含水量发生显著性变化的土层深度,进一步使用秩和检验方法,利用本底值与降水影响情况下样本土壤含水量数值进行比较分析。结果表明,在0.1显著性水平下,污染液不能达到含水层。     

A new model for calculating the design wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas

High precision design wave height is required in extreme marine environments in typhoon-affected sea areas. A new model is built under typhoon effect to calculate the design wave heights. The new model has multiple undetermined parameters, and it is able to fit observed data more flexibly and accurately. In addition, the distribution functions of this new model are based on the maximum entropy principle. Therefore, they can avoid the apriority, which means arbitrarily assigning Poisson distribution to describe the distribution of typhoon occurrence frequency and assigning Gumbel distribution or Pearson-III distribution to describe the distribution of extreme events in the process of applying the compound distribution to deduce the design elevations. The observed data of 18-year (1984–2001) extreme wave heights and the corresponding typhoon events in Maidao are used to test the model. Test results show that the new model is theoretically more stable and more precise when predicting the design wave heights under the typhoon-affected sea areas.     

基于横波分裂的转换波各向异性分析技术及应用

当横波不平行也不垂直穿过裂缝时,会发生横波分裂现象。这里基于横波分裂理论,采用二维分量旋转方法进行转换波分裂分析。为了得到地层裂缝信息,提高宽方位转换波径向分量成像质量,利用宽方位转换波的径向和横向分量资料,完成了多层裂缝介质的各向异性分析。在此基础上,还完成了转换波方位各向异性校正研究。首先,利用分量旋转方法求出第一裂缝介质层的各向异性方向、快慢横波时延等参数;然后,将快、慢横波时延应用于慢波数据进行慢波时延补偿;最后,根据第一层的方位角将快波和补偿后的慢波旋转回原来的径向和横向分量方向。这样,就完成了第一裂缝层的各向异性分析,同时还得到第一层的裂缝方向、裂缝密度、补偿后的径向分量等数据。依此类推,进行以下裂缝层的各向异性分析。该转换波各向异性分析技术已应用于川西XC气田的宽方位三维三分量地震数据处理,不但得到了裂缝参数,而且还消除了宽方位转换波的方位各向异性影响,提高了转换波径向分量的成像质量。     

基于浪蚀龛和土体临界高度的修正的卡丘金法及其工程应用

水库运行期间库岸再造预测是工程地质领域的重要和热门研究课题之一。基于卡丘金法采用半经验性、半定量的模式,简化了水文地质条件的影响,并忽略了波浪对库岸的掏蚀作用等缺陷,针对土质岸坡,提出了基于浪蚀龛和土体临界高度的卡丘金修正法;建立了库岸再造稳定时限估算方法;并采用极限平衡法、卡丘金法和构建的土质岸坡再造预测方法对三峡库区奉节白马港岸坡进行了塌岸预测。计算结果表明,修正的卡丘金法的计算结果与其他两种预测方法相比偏小,但偏差在8.05 m以内,并通过现阶段库岸地质调查表明,预测结果比较符合实情。研究成果对库岸区域土地资源开发利用及防灾减灾具有积极意义。     

极端波浪荷载作用下近海桥梁下方海床瞬态液化稳定性研究

为研究极端波浪荷载作用下近海桥梁下方密实海床的瞬态液化稳定性,通过求解RANS方程和Biot方程,建立了极端波浪作用下箱梁下方密实海床动力响应的有限元数值模型。将该模型与以往试验结果对比,验证了该模型的准确性,基于此模型进一步研究了极端波浪作用下箱梁周围的波浪压力场分布及波浪特性、淹没深度对桥梁下方密实海床瞬态液化稳定性的影响。研究结果表明:处于淹没状态的箱梁对周围波压场影响较大,箱梁迎浪侧密实海床的瞬态液化深度大于背浪侧,液化深度幅值距离箱梁1/10~1/8波长范围内达到最大;随着波高与波浪周期的增大,箱梁左、右两侧密实海床瞬态液化深度均增大;在迎浪侧,当箱梁刚好完全被淹没时,海床瞬态液化深度最大,而在背浪侧,随着淹没深度增加,箱梁下方海床趋于安全。其研究结果可为跨海桥梁安全性分析提供参考。     

考虑极端天气时港珠澳大桥人工岛设计波浪要素——II.设计波要素校核方法

近年来珠江口海域航道治理、桥梁工程、港口建设等大型水上工程建设项目越来越多,水工建筑物安全的重要性和对台风浪灾害破坏的敏感性是大型工程重点关注的要素之一,采用台风浪数学模型分析计算极端天气条件对港珠澳大桥岛桥结合部人工岛设计波浪要素的影响。分析统计1949—2014年影响广东省沿海地区的登陆台风资料,采用随机模型分析珠江口地区300年一遇的台风气压降和登陆最大风速参数;建立珠江口水域的台风浪数学模型;选取不利台风登陆路径,采用300年一遇台风参数组合计算极端天气条件下珠江口内东西人工岛的设计波浪要素,对原设计波要素进行复核。可为其他海洋工程项目设计提供新的思路和研究方法。     

渗透系数极端情况下饱和土中压缩波波速及其物理本质

目前对渗透系数取极端值情况下饱和土中两类压缩波物理本质的理解尚不够清晰,比如文献中对渗透系数无穷大情况下饱和土中两类压缩波波速的求解有不同的结果。结合Zienkiewicz给出的土动力学基本方程,深入讨论了流体运动方程的建立,推导了饱和土一维压缩弹性问题的动力控制方程及其 - 、 - 形式,进而得出渗透系数取0和取无穷大这两种极端情况下饱和土中压缩波的波速,解释了其物理意义。提出了惯性耦合力的概念,指出两相体动力分析时土骨架和孔隙水之间的相互作用包含渗透力和惯性耦合力两项,并重点讨论了衡量惯性耦合力的参数孔隙度对压缩波波速的影响。     

Evidence of extreme wave events from boulder deposits on the south-east coast of Malta (Central Mediterranean)

Large boulder accumulations have been observed on various coasts bordering the Mediterranean and have been associated with extreme wave events such as powerful storms or tsunamis. This study provides an in-depth analysis of 430 boulder deposits, located along a 3.5 km stretch of rocky coast situated on the SE of the Maltese Islands. It includes a geomorphometric analysis of the observed boulders and use of numerical modelling to estimate wave height required to initiate boulder movement. Comparisons of aerial imagery over a period of 46 years have made it possible to identify boulder movement that could only be attributed to storm waves, given that no local tsunamigenic event has been recorded over this time period. Positioned in the central Mediterranean, the Maltese Islands are exposed to potential tsunamis generated by seismic activity associated with the Malta Escarpment, and the Calabrian and Hellenic arcs. Although imprints from historic tsunami impact cannot be excluded, results indicate that the area is exposed to strong storm waves that are capable of displacing some of the very large boulders observed on site.

     

Evidence of extreme wave events from boulder deposits on the south-east coast of Malta (Central Mediterranean)

Large boulder accumulations have been observed on various coasts bordering the Mediterranean and have been associated with extreme wave events such as powerful storms or tsunamis. This study provides an in-depth analysis of 430 boulder deposits, located along a 3.5 km stretch of rocky coast situated on the SE of the Maltese Islands. It includes a geomorphometric analysis of the observed boulders and use of numerical modelling to estimate wave height required to initiate boulder movement. Comparisons of aerial imagery over a period of 46 years have made it possible to identify boulder movement that could only be attributed to storm waves, given that no local tsunamigenic event has been recorded over this time period. Positioned in the central Mediterranean, the Maltese Islands are exposed to potential tsunamis generated by seismic activity associated with the Malta Escarpment, and the Calabrian and Hellenic arcs. Although imprints from historic tsunami impact cannot be excluded, results indicate that the area is exposed to strong storm waves that are capable of displacing some of the very large boulders observed on site.     

Statistical analysis of mixed fossil populations

This paper outlines a procedure to analyze statistically a mixture of two populations that cannot be Separated by usual methods. In such instances, frequency histograms of taxonomically important characters that are normally distributed show the presence of two modes revealing the possible existence of two populations. As a first step in the analysis, the joint distribution of a suitable character is resolved by one of the two, Pearson or Rao, methods of moments; this gives estimates of the mean and standard deviation of that character for each of the two constituent populations. A numerical example explains the computational procedure. Rao's method is easier to use but is applicable only if the two standard deviations are assumed equal. If the distribution of the characters have less than 10-percent overlap, it is possible to make further statistical analysis on the basis of results obtained by either of the two methods. In paleobiometrical work the problem of having a mixed population is fairly common. The procedure outlined in this paper may be utilized in such situations for a better evaluation and interpretation of data.