Seismic individual plant examination of external events of US nuclear power plants: insights and implications

As part of the implementation of the severe accident policy, nuclear power plants in the US are conducting the individual plant examination of external events (IPEEE). Seismic events are treated in these IPEEEs by either a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) or a seismic margin assessment. The major elements of a seismic PRA are the seismic hazard analysis, seismic fragility evaluation of structures and equipment and systems analysis using event tree and fault tree analysis techniques to develop accident sequences and calculate their frequencies of occurrence. The seismic margin assessment is a deterministic evaluation of the seismic margin of the plant beyond the design basis earthquake. A review level earthquake is selected and some of the components that are on the success paths are screened out as exceeding the review level earthquake; the remaining ones are evaluated for their seismic capacity using information from the original plant design criteria, test data and plant walkdown. The IPEEEs of over 100 operating nuclear power plants are nearing completion. This paper summarizes the lessons learned in conducting the IPEEEs and their applicability to nuclear power plants outside of the United States.     

Development of the site-specific uniform hazard spectra for Korean nuclear power plant sites

A seismic risk analysis has been performed to evaluate the seismic safety of a nuclear power plant for strong earthquakes beyond a design earthquake level. A site-specific median spectrum has generally been used for a seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipment in Korean nuclear power plants as a part of a probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The site-specific response spectrum, however, does not represent the same probability of an exceedance over entire frequency range of interest. The site-specific uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) is more appropriate for use in a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) than the site-specific spectrum, since there are only a few strong motion data and seismological information for the nuclear plant sites in Korea. In this study, the uniform hazard spectra were developed using the available seismic hazard data for four Korean NPP sites.     

Seismic fragility analyses of nuclear power plant structures based on the recorded earthquake data in Korea

By nature, the seismic fragility analysis results will be considerably affected by the statistical data of design information and site-dependent ground motions. The engineering characteristics of small magnitude earthquake spectra recorded in the Korean peninsula during the last several years are analyzed in this paper. An improved method of seismic fragility analysis is evaluated by comparative analyses to verify its efficiency for practical application to nuclear power plant structures. The effects of the recorded earthquake on the seismic fragilities of Korean nuclear power plant structures are also evaluated from the comparative studies. Observing the obtained results, the proposed method is more efficient for the multi-modes structures. The case study results show that seismic fragility analysis based on the Newmark's spectra in Korea might over-estimate the seismic capacities of Korean facilities.     

基于经验-解析数据的某核电安全壳地震易损性分析

本文基于混合数据的地震易损性分析方法,对我国已运行核电厂地震易损性分析进行研究。首先基于地震危险性分析和分解结果,生成了我国华南地区某核电厂厂址条件谱;然后采用贪心优化算法,选取符合厂址危险性的地震动记录;基于增量动力分析方法,生成我国某核电厂安全壳地震易损性安全系数FS和FSA的解析数据;地震易损性其他参数采用经验数据,基于经验-解析数据,生成了我国某核电厂安全壳地震易损性曲线。建议将基于经验-解析数据的地震易损性分析方法应用于我国核电厂安全壳初步地震易损性分析中。     

Dynamic fragility concepts for equipment design and qualification

Fragility concepts are explored for use in the design and qualification of nuclear plant equipment and for relating the ultimate capability of equipment to that of the overall plant. In the most general sense, the fragility level of a device may depend on several different types of environmental stress or challenge factors (i.e., heat, nuclear radiation, vibration, etc.) that influence its operation. However, emphasis is concentrated on the dynamic and particularly the seismic fragility levels of equipment. A general definition of dynamic fragility and various methods for its measurement are described. The state of published data on nuclear equipment fragility is discussed, and limitations on its use are noted. From there, the concept of a standardized seismic fragility data base and its potential uses are considered. Various gaps in the methodology are identified, and recommendations for further research are suggested.     

高温气冷堆蓄电池组地震易损性研究

为验证核电厂发生地震外部事件时的电力安全，需要对蓄电池组进行抗震鉴定试验。本文以高温气冷堆（HTR）核电厂安全级蓄电池组为研究对象、以安全级蓄电池组抗震鉴定试验数据和工程经验为基础，通过识别、量化蓄电池组的地震易损性变量，并应用基于试验的易损性分析法推导出地震易损性曲线和高置信度低失效概率（HCLPF）抗震能力。研究结果表明，安全级蓄电池组的抗震能力远高于核电厂设计基准地震动需求。      

基于分离变量的地震PSA相关性分析方法研究

为解决现有地震概率安全评价（PSA）相关性分析简化假设存在的问题,建立更准确反映核电厂构筑物、系统和部件（SSC）地震相关性的分析方法,对基于分离变量的易损度相关性分析开展了研究。结合易损度模型对分析方法进行了理论推导,并对方法的实施过程进行了介绍。利用该方法对不同条件下SSC的联合失效开展案例分析,得到了联合失效的易损度曲线和失效频率分析结果,并与现有相关性简化假设得到的结果进行了对比。研究结果表明,基于分离变量的地震PSA相关性分析方法能弥补现有方法的不足,支持核电厂地震PSA开发和应用。     

Numerical computation of fragility curves for NPP equipment

The seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology is a popular approach for evaluating the risk of failure of engineering structures due to earthquake. In this framework, fragility curves express the conditional probability of failure of a structure or component for a given seismic input motion parameter A, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration. The failure probability due to a seismic event is obtained by convolution of fragility curves with seismic hazard curves. In general, a log-normal model is used in order to estimate fragilities. In nuclear engineering practice, these fragilities are determined using safety factors with respect to design earthquake. This approach allows to determine fragility curves based on design study but largely draws on expert judgement and simplifying assumptions. When a more realistic assessment of seismic fragility is needed, simulation-based statistical estimation of fragility curves is more appropriate. In this paper, we will discuss statistical estimation of parameters of fragility curves and present results obtained for a reactor coolant system of nuclear power plant. We have performed non-linear dynamic response analyses using artificially generated strong motion time histories. Uncertainties due to seismic loads as well as model uncertainties are taken into account and propagated using Monte Carlo simulation.     

Seismic reliability of electrical power transmission systems

The reliability of electric power transmission systems is important for the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants under a given earthquake loading as it relates to the loss of off site power to the nuclear power plants. Here, a comprehensive model to evaluate the seismic reliability of electric power transmission systems is presented. The model provides probabilistic assessments of structural damage and abnormal power flow that can lead to power interruption in a transmission system under a given earthquake. With the proposed methodology seismic capacities of electrical. equipment are determined on the basis of available test data and simple modeling from which fragility functions of specific substations are developed. Earthquake ground motions are defined as stochastic processes. Probabilities of network disconnectivity and abnormal power flow are assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to the electric power network in San Francisco and vicinity under the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, and the probabilities of power interruption are contrasted with the actual power failures observed during that earthquake.     

多种影响因素下的设备易损性计算

抗震裕度评估是核电厂地震安全评估的方法之一,通过地震易损性分析计算高置信度低失效概率的抗震能力值是抗震裕度评估中很重要的一步。本文对于同时受到多种失效模式影响的设备易损性计算进行了研究,讨论了蒙特卡罗抽样方法和拉丁超立方分布抽样方法在设备易损性计算中的应用,对两种抽样方法的计算效率和准确度进行了评价。结果表明,在小样本抽样计算时拉丁超立方抽样方法有更好的计算效率和收敛速度,在1 000次样本数量时,两种抽样方法计算结果均可达到收敛。     

储液容器地震易损性参数计算

本文介绍了核电厂设备的易损性分析方法以及易损性模型的参数化计算方法。对核电厂中的典型储液容器应急补水箱（ASG水箱）使用Housner质量-弹簧简化模型进行了分析。对ASG水箱的各项易损性参数进行了计算,绘制出其易损性曲线,并得出高置信度低失效概率（HCLPF）值。结果表明：ASG水箱的HCLPF值低于安全停堆地震（SSE）水平,属于抗震能力较低的设备,需在结构上进行加强。     

Regulatory perspective of seismic issues

Some of the current seismic issues facing the nuclear power industry, such as seismic design criteria (USI A-40), seismic qualification of equipment in operating nuclear power plants (USI A-46), eastern United States seismicity, operating basis earthquake (OBE) exceedance criteria, seismic instrumentation, post OBE inspection of nuclear power plants, anchor bolts too close to a free edge, seismic margins of plants, and the potential for external events to cause severe accidents, are presented and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's perspective on the resolution of these issues are discussed.     

Seismic re-evaluation of nuclear facilities worldwide: overview and status

Existing nuclear facilities throughout the world are being subjected to severe scrutiny of their safety in the event of an earthquake. In the United States, there have been several licensing and safety review issues for which industry and regulatory agencies have cooperated to develop rational and economically feasible criteria for resolving the issues. Currently, all operating nuclear power plants in the United States are conducting an Individual Plant Examination of External Events, including earthquakes beyond the design basis. About two-thirds of the operating plants are conducting parallel programs for verifying the seismic adequacy of equipment for the design basis earthquake. The U.S. Department of Energy is also beginning to perform detailed evaluations of their facilities, many of which had little or no seismic design. Western European countries also have been re-evaluating their older nuclear power plants for seismic events often adapting the criteria developed in the United States. With the change in the political systems in Eastern Europe, there is a strong emphasis from their Western European neighbors to evaluate and upgrade the safety of their operating nuclear power plants. Finally, nuclear facilities in Asia are also being evaluated for seismic vulnerabilities. This paper focuses on the methodologies that have been developed for re-evaluation of existing nuclear power plants and presents examples of the application of these methodologies to nuclear facilities worldwide.     

地震概率安全分析中地震易损度不确定性分布的研究

核电厂地震概率安全分析(PSA)中,构筑物和设备的地震易损度是在给定地面运动强度条件下的条件失效概率。地震易损度的不确定性分布较为复杂,在地震PSA定量化过程中难于处理。本文针对地震易损度的数学模型进行研究,采用数值方法求解地震易损度的均值和方差。在均值和方差相等的条件下,以几种常见的不确定性分布类型近似地震易损度的不确定性分布。通过比较可以看出,Beta分布可以较为准确地描述地震易损度的不确定性分布。     

核电厂地震易损性分析模型研究

福岛核事故发生后,我国要求开展外部事件对核电厂影响的评价,“十二五”核安全规划要求2015年之前开展外部事件概率安全分析工作。地震是需要重点评价的外部事件之一,而地震易损性分析是地震概率安全评价（SPSA）的一项重要内容,易损性分析模型是地震易损性分析的基础。本文介绍了地震易损性的概念,研究了美国核管会（NRC）和电力研究院（EPRI）推荐的地震易损性模型,并从数学上对该模型进行推导。给出易损性模型的应用实例,讨论随机性和不确定性对易损度的影响。结果表明,进行易损性分析时,需拥有丰富的知识和经验,以减少不确定性,使得到的分析结果更接近实际。     

核电厂地震概率安全评价中的电气设备易损度计算

随着福岛事故的发生,核电厂外部事件概率安全评价工作的重要性被各国核安全当局所认同。而地震,作为核电厂最为主要的外部事件,其对应的概率安全评价工作便更为人们所重视。易损度计算是完成地震概率安全评价的关键技术环节,其结果将被使用作概率安全评价事故序列模型的输入条件。因此,易损度计算的准确性和正确性对地震概率安全评价工作最终结论的影响也就不言而喻了。本文首先总体性介绍了设备易损度计算的基础数学模型,随后详细描述了核电厂地震概率安全评价中电气设备易损度计算的操作步骤,并重点探讨了电气设备功能失效模式下对试验反应谱和要求反应谱的处理简化技巧,最后通过具体算例阐述了电气设备易损度计算过程中的注意事项和简化技巧应用。     

核电厂大型组合结构的有限元抗震分析方法研究

在现代核电站抗震设计中,有限元法是各类相关设备抗震分析与评价的重要数值仿真工具。对于形状复杂、部件众多的大型组合结构,采用整体三维建模的有限元模型通常需要很大的存储和计算规模,超出现有的计算条件。因此需要首先研究组合结构各个部件的动力学特性,从而建立合理的三维简化力学模型,并以该模型为基础进行有限元数值仿真。本文以某地车-吊车组合结构为例,给出此类大型组合结构的抗震分析方法,并将等效静力法与反应谱法相结合,对该结构进行分析,最后根据相关法规对各子结构进行评价,以确保总体组合结构在极限安全地震条件下能够保持结构完整性。     

利用HHT产生与多阻尼楼板谱匹配的地震波

美国原子能管理委员会（USNRC）规范规定了用于核电厂抗震分析和设计的地震波要求。在抗震分析和设计中，采用的地震波可与多阻尼目标反应谱匹配，也可与单阻尼目标反应谱匹配。然而，在对核电设备和部件进行动力时程分析时，则需要与多阻尼目标楼板谱匹配的地震波。基于此问题，提出利用希尔伯特-黄变换（HHT）方法，通过修改种子地震波的频率和振幅信息，使之与多阻尼目标楼板谱匹配，且完全符合USNRC规范的匹配标准，从而为核电设备和部件的地震安全评估提供合适的地震激励。      

Philosophy and practice of the aseismic design of nuclear power plants — Summary of the guidelines in Japan

Aseismic design is considered to be one of the most important factors for the safety of the nuclear power plants built in zones of high seismicity such as Japan. All structures, equipment and piping are classified in accordance with the importance of their radioactive safety to the plant, and the dynamic analysis and/or factored seismic coefficient analysis are applied accordingly. Site and ground conditions, as well as seismicity, should be studied thoroughly in order to estimate the intensities of the design earthquake and the safety margin check earthquake. Dynamic analyses of buildings and structures are performed using the multi-lumped-mass-system supported by soil springs with time history analysis conceptions. This idea is also applied to the design of equipment and piping by coupled system to the major structure or by the floor response spectra criteria. Tolerances are applied to damping factors although some experiments show more realistic results. Allowable stresses of ferrous metals for equipment and piping during earthquakes are more scientifically precise.

This report summarizes a guideline for aseismic design of nuclear power plants. The guideline was prepared by the Japan Electric Association in April, 1970, after three years laborious work.

In sect. 1, the philosophy and criteria are described. All components of a plant should be classified into three classes in accordance with their contributions to reactor safeties. Design to earthquake loadings should be based on “design basis earthquake” which is decided in consideration of local seismicity.

In sect 2, site selection and review for ground are described in the sense of seismic aspects.

In sect 3, deciding the earthquake motion for design is discussed. In Japan, semi-statistical approaches are used in normal practice.

In sect. 4, design philosophy and practice of building structures and containment vessels are described. They are designed under statical seismic forces, and the design of the class “A” structures should be checked by a dynamic response technique.

In sect. 5, design philosophy and practice of piping, vesels and equipment are described. Those which belong to class “A” items should be designed in a dynamic sense. Several programs for dynamic analyses of these items are prepared. Allowable stress under earthquake conditions is discussed in relation to other codes, for example, ASME Section III.

The greater part of the philosophy and design criteria have been adopted to all nuclear power plants which have been and are currently being built in Japan.     

Seismic design of nuclear power plants — an assessment

This paper presents a review and evaluation of the design standards and the analytical and experimental methods used in the seismic design of nuclear power plants with emphasis on United States practice. Three major areas were investigated: (a) soils, siting, and seismic ground motion specification; (b) soil-structure interaction; and (c) the response of major nuclear power plant structures and components. The purpose of this review and evaluation program was to prepare an independent assessment of the state-of-the-art of the seismic design of nuclear power plants and to identify seismic analysis and design research areas meriting support by the various organizations comprising the ‘nuclear power industry’. Criteria used for evaluating the relative importance of alternative research areas included the potential research impact on nuclear power plant siting, design, construction, cost, safety, licensing, and regulation.Three methods were used in the study herein. The first involved the review of current literature, focusing primarily on publications dated later than 1970. This review included the results of numerous studies, of which those of Japanese origin and those presented in recent international conferences were predominant. The second method entailed a review of international experience in the dynamic testing of nuclear power plant structures and components, and related experience with scaled and model tests. Included in this experience, in addition to the questions of analysis, design, and measurement of dynamic parameters, are related efforts involving a review of responses obtained during measured earthquake response and investigations into appropriate methods for backfitting or upgrading older nuclear power plants to meet new seismic criteria.The third approach was to obtain the opinions and recommendations of technically knowledgeable individuals in the US ‘nuclear industry’; the survey results are shown in the Appendix.