黑龙江省主要气象灾害预测和区划技术报告

为使黑龙江省高产、高效、优质农业持续稳定发展，需合理利用农业气候资源，减轻或避免气候灾害的影响。黑龙江省主要气象灾害预报及区划着重考虑对黑龙江省农业生产有重要影响的冷害、涝害和旱害，研究其发生规律、形成原因，产生机制，最终作出灾害预测。再用对２的危害和灾害指标，根据全省和主要灾害的地理分布特点进行分区研究防勺，作出区划。配合农业生产发展的需要，为抗、避、防农业气象灾害，为农业区域化、专家化提供气候     

黑龙江省气候资源与灾害评价系统研究

采用Windows98平台，利用Vb6等可视化语言对系统进行程序编译，融入灾害评估模式内容，通过指标计算，对黑龙江省易发灾害进行评价分析，并实现对黑龙江省气候资源的全面分析阐述，从而为农业种植结构调整、品种合理布局及防灾减灾等农业生产决策提供科学依据。     

统一思想 抓住重点 努力为农业强省建设服务

统一思想抓住重点努力为农业强省建设服务黑龙江省气象局局长陈立亭最近召开的黑龙江省委七届四次全委（扩大）会议，作出《中共黑龙江省委关于把我省由农业大省建设成农业强省的决定》（以下简称《决定》。黑龙江省气象局作为重点为农业生产服务的部门，要坚决贯彻执行省...     

2002年农业气候特点及对农业生产的影响

根据农业气象情报网收集的2002年实时监测资料，详细分析了黑龙江省农作物生长季气候特点及其对农业生产的影响。     

CO2浓度增加对农业生产的影响

分析了ＣＯ２浓度增加引起的增温效应对黑龙江省农业生产产生的可能影响。以水稻为例，研究了ＣＯ２增加时，黑龙江省作物种植区域的变化。     

气候变暖对黑龙江农业生产的影响及农作物结构调整

本文根据气候变暖的气象现象,结合有关研究,提出气候变暖对黑龙江省农业生产的影响。并依据黑龙江省主要气候特征和主要作物的生长习性,提出了黑龙江省作物区域布局和农作物产业结构调整的建议,从而为黑龙江省应对气候变暖带来的问题提供了依据,以便于更好的使气象服务于农业生产。     

热烈祝贺黑龙江省气象工作会议召开

热烈祝贺黑龙江省气象工作会议召开黑龙江省副省长孙魁文黑龙江省气象局转全省气象工作会议：值此全省气象工作会议召开之际，我代表省政府向为我省经济建设，特别是为农业生产服务做出显著成绩的全省气象工作者表示热烈祝贺和亲切慰问，并预祝会议圆满成功。在中国气象局...     

2010年黑龙江省农业防灾减灾专家研讨会

<正>2010年3月22日,黑龙江省农业防灾减灾专家研讨会在银河宾馆召开。省气象局、省科协组织10个部门20多位专家学者,对2010年度黑龙江省农业年景和可能发生的农业灾害进行了综合分析,为省委、省政府指导农业生产提供了科学依据。     

黑龙江省农业气象报文处理系统

利用Vb等可视化语言编译系统，通过编程检索和查询黑龙江省发生的自然灾害及农业气象服务、产品，并可自动处理翻译农业气象AB报文，形成要素数据转为数据库，通过表格制作对数据进行整理统计分析，在此基础上实现农业气象信息的编撰，为政府部门决策农业生产及广大农民科学种田提供气象科学依据。     

旱涝指标及其时空分布研究

从黑龙江省的农业生产实际出发，经多年研究证明．旱涝是影响农业生产的重要灾害．本文依据各地平均气温、降水量和相对湿度的历年月平均资料，按照即定的农业气候指标，在计算机上完成一系列的计算，能够计算出各月水分供应量、蒸散量、旱涝情况、旱涝起止日期和旱涝出现频率，进而分析出全省旱涝的时空分布特征．     

气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望

综述了气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源、农业气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、高温热浪、低温灾害)和农业病虫害的变化趋势与规律,从农业生产潜力变化、作物种植制度变化和作物品质变化等方面阐明了气候变化对中国农业生产的影响事实,分析了气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响和中国农业生产适应气候变化的对策措施。在此基础上,针对气候变化背景下中国气候资源的时空分布特点及农业生产出现的新情况、新问题,指出了当前中国关于气候变化对农业影响研究存在的不足,提出了未来气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究需要重视的方面,为确保气候变化背景下中国的农业生产安全及粮食安全提供决策支持。     

中国热量资源精细化估算

热量资源是重要的农业气候资源,掌握其精细化分布情况,对于农业气候区划有重要意义,并对农业发展起科学的指导作用,为了得到全国各时间尺度的热量资源精细化资料,需要将不同时间尺度的气象站观测资料估算到无资料的细网格上。本文对比分析了反距离加权法（IDW）、梯度距离平方反比法（GIDW）、样条函数法（Spline）、克里格法（Kriging）和趋势面法估算全国热量资源的效果,采用1998—2007年全国651个基本、基准站的1月和7月平均气温、最高气温进行空间估算试验,用交叉检验的方法分析估算误差及其分布情况。分析结果表明,梯度距离反比法（GIDW）较好地反映了局地地形、海拔高度的影响,误差最小,估算结果最优,GIDW法对热量资源的估算误差较小,相对误差总体不超过5%。基于GIS软件平台,利用1971—2000年全国2346个站的资料采用GIDW法对全国的热量资源进行了估算,得到了年、季、月、旬尺度的平均气温分布图,并制作了稳定通过0,5,10,12,15℃界限温度的初终日序日、初终间日数、积温全国分布图,空间分辨率达0.01°。     

Modern climate-related changes in heat supply,moistening, and productivity of the agrosphere in Russia

Climate changes observed in recent decades are analyzed, and the respective climate-related tendencies of changes in heat supply, moistening, and productivity of the agrosphere that determine the natural resourse of potential Russia are determined. The grain crop yield trends are used additionally as climate change indicators. It is shown that climate changes observed in the last 30 years promote the increase in potential agriculture productivity in most of the Russian Federation, where not less than 85% of agricultural products are produced. At the same time, the increase in climate aridity is observed in several regions of Siberia and Chernozem Center, which results in a reduced productivity of agriculture.     

IPCC第五次评估报告对跨区域影响的新认识

IPCC第五次评估报告（AR5）第二工作组（WGII）报告认为,气候变化对世界上大部分区域的自然和人类系统的影响将进一步加剧,其对非洲最大的影响预计发生在半干旱的环境,增加现有的水资源可利用量和农业系统的压力;气候变化已导致北欧地区的谷物产量增加而南欧地区的产量降低,未来的变化将增加欧洲的灌溉需求;在亚洲的许多地区,气候变化将导致农业生产率下降;气候、大气CO₂和海洋酸化的进一步变化预计将对大洋洲的水资源、海岸生态系统、基础设施、健康、农业和生物多样性产生实质性的影响;在北美,许多带来风险的气候压迫力的频率和强度将在未来几十年增加;中美洲和南美洲许多国家的持续高水平贫困导致了对气候变率和变化的高脆弱性;在北极,气候变化与非气候相关驱动在确定的物理、生物和社会经济风险上交互作用,变化率可能超过了社会系统适应的速率;在气候和非气候因素的影响下,小岛屿具有高度的脆弱性,同时,气候变暖将增加海洋生态系统的风险。     

适应气候变化的国际行动和农业措施研究进展

针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。     

历史纪录的西北环境变化与农业开发

由中国西北地区的现代气候状况和古气候记录来回溯过去时期的气候变化,并依据历史文献记载论述过去时期农业开发活动的规模、效益与温度、湿度背景之关联。文中指出：西汉和唐前期气候适宜,河西地区大规模农田开垦成功;唐后期和明朝中叶的气候转寒导致河西屯垦凋敝;公元初塔里木盆地的繁荣和后来的衰落与水资源变化有关。历史上的垦后抛荒行为加速了土地的沙化进程,乌兰布和沙漠的形成和较温暖的13世纪降尘事件频繁发生即为此类不良后果的两个典型例子。     

Climate Risks and Their Impact on Agriculture and Forests in Switzerland

There is growing evidence that, as a result of global climate change, some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The paper aims to (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today's 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may become less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves and droughts. This increases the risk of losses of crop yield and forage quality. In forests, the more frequent occurrence of dry years may accelerate the replacement of sensitive tree species and reduce carbon stocks, and the projected slight increase in the frequency of extreme storms by the end of the century could increase the risk of windthrow. Some possible measures to maintain goods and services of agricultural and forest ecosystems are mentioned, but it is suggested that more frequent extremes may have more severe consequences than progressive changes in means. In order to effectively decrease the risk for social and economic impacts, long-term adaptive strategies in agriculture and silviculture, investments for prevention, and new insurance concepts seem necessary.     

Energy balance comparison of sorghum and sunflower

Summary An understanding of the energy exchange processes at the surface of the earth is necessary for studies of global climate change. If the climate becomes drier, as is predicted for northern mid-latitudes, it is important to know how major agricultural crops will play a role in the budget of heat and moisture. Thus, the energy balance components of sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench.] and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), two drought-resistant crops grown in the areas where summertime drying is forecasted, were compared. Soil water content and evapotranspiration (ET) rates also were determined. Net radiation was measured with net radiometers. Soil heat flux was analyzed with heat flux plates and thermocouples. The Bowen ratio method was used to determine sensible and latent heat fluxes. Sunflower had a higher evapotranspiration rate and depleted more water from the soil than sorghum. Soil heat flux into the soil during the daytime was greater for sorghum than sunflower, which was probably the result of the more erect leaves of sorghum. Nocturnal net radiation loss from the sorghum crop was greater than that from the sunflower crop, perhaps because more heat was stored in the soil under the sorghum crop. But daytime net radiation values were similar for the two crops. The data indicated that models of climate change must differentiate nighttime net radiation of agricultural crops. Sensible heat flux was not always less (or greater) for sorghum compared to sunflower. Sunflower had greater daytime values for latent heat flux, reflecting its greater depletion of water from the soil. Evapotranspiration rates determined by the energy balance method agreed relatively well with those found by the water balance method. For example, on 8 July (43 days after planting), the ET rates found by the energy-balance and water-balance methods were 4.6 vs. 5.5 mm/day for sunflower, respectively; for sorghum, these values were 4.0 vs. 3.5 mm/day, respectively. If the climate does become drier, the lower soil water use and lower latent heat flux of sorghum compared to sunflower suggest that sorghum will be better adapted to the climate change.Contribution from the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station. F. Rachidi is now with the Département d'Écologie Végétale et Pastoralisme, École Nationale d'Agriculture, Meknès, Morocco, and E. T. Kanemasu is now with the Department of Agronomy, University of Georgia, Griffin, Georgia, U.S.A.With 5 Figures     

基于MaxEnt模型的薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划

基于最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和GIS技术,提出一种薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划方法。利用美国本土274个种植点,结合美国本土和中国云南省1981—2010年气候数据开展薄壳山核桃气候适宜性区划研究。结果表明:7月平均气温、年平均气温、30年极端最低气温、年降水量、3—5月降水量、年日照时数和4—5月日照时数为影响薄壳山核桃气候适宜性的主要气候因子。基于美国本土种植点构建的MaxEnt模型在该区域具有较高精度,但将模型直接外推用于中国云南省可靠性不足。因此,利用模拟区域和训练样本气候因子值域的偏离程度改进气候适宜性指数,并将云南省薄壳山核桃适宜性划分为最适宜、适宜、次适宜和不适宜4个等级。其中,最适宜区和适宜区分布于热量资源丰富、日照相对充足并具备较好冬季低温条件的亚热带地区和热带地区边缘。受云南省复杂地形和气候条件影响,区划结果呈现出破碎化分布。     

Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate change-migration nexus.