Sensitivity experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model of stratospheric sudden warming

We describe a series of sensitivity experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model of the interaction of stationary planetary waves with the mean zonal flow in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The model is of the Matsuno type, which neglects wave-wave interaction and includes only a single zonal harmonic of the planetary wave spectrum in each simulation. We employed the model to investigate the source of the double-layer structure previously obtained by several authors for the stratospheric sudden warming with wavenumber one. Our results suggest that this characteristic of the model-produced warming is a property only of models without damping. When reasonable dissipation is included in the model, the double-layer structure disappears. This implies the importance of the drag parameterization in properly simulating warming events and, since the actual drag very probably is effected by breaking internal waves, it suggests that future analysis should include a specific representation of this effect. We also investigated the dependence of stratospheric warming on the structure of the zonal wind field. Our analyses show in particular that substantial reduction of the height of the polar night jet mitigates strongly against the occurrence of a sudden warming event.     

Large-scale thermodynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere during the major stratospheric warming in 2003/2004

The stratosphere–mesosphere response to the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the winter of 2003/2004 has been studied. The UKMO (UK Meteorological Office) data set was used to examine the features of the large-scale thermodynamic anomalies present in the stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere. The vertical and latitudinal structure of the genuine anomalies, emphasized by removing the UKMO climatology, has been investigated as well. The features of the stratospheric anomalies have been related to the mesospheric ones in measured neutral winds from radars and temperatures from meteor radars (90 km). It was found that the stratospheric warming spread to the lower mesosphere, while cooling occurred in the upper mesosphere, a feature that may be related to the large vertical scales of the stationary planetary waves (SPWs). It was shown also that the beginning of the eastward wind deceleration in the stratosphere–mesosphere system coincided with the maximum amplification of the SPW1 accompanied by short-lived bursts of waves 2 and 3.     

副热带急流强度和赤道QBO对平流层突然增温的影响

使用一个全球原始方程半谱模式模拟了副热带急流强度和赤道准两年振荡（ＱＢＯ）对平流层突然增温（ＳＳＷ）的影响．结果指出：副热带急流强度对ＳＳＷ有明显影响，副热带急流越强，ＳＳＷ发展越快，极区最大增温区的高度越低；赤道ＱＢＯ不同相位零风线的南北位移对ＳＳＷ没有明显影响；ＱＢＯ东风相位时副热带急流更强，而ＱＢＯ西风相位时副热带急流较弱的观测事实，可能是大的中冬ＳＳＷ更容易发生在ＱＢＯ东风相位的主要原因．     

2003-2011年平流层顶抬升事件的SABER/TIMED观测

利用2003-2011年的SABER/TIMED温度数据观测发现,在2006年、2009年和2010年北半球高纬（70°N）的冬季（1-3月）发生了“平流层顶抬升”.在这3次事件中,1月末-2月初的~50 km和~80 km高度处分别出现了温度的极大值~260 K和~230 K,即平流层顶的高度突然由原来的50 km左右上升至80 km左右,这就是平流层顶抬升事件;随着时间的推移,抬升的平流层顶的高度逐渐下降直至恢复到原有位置,与此同时其温度由~230 K上升至~260 K.值得注意的是,虽然在极区的每年冬天都发生平流层突然增温事件,但是只在伴随着极涡分裂的平流层突然增温事件后出现平流层顶抬升.此外,在发生平流层顶抬升事件的冬季里,高纬的重力波活动在1月末-2月初的~80 km高度处突然增强,对应着平流层顶的抬升时间和高度;在2月份之后,重力波活动在75 km以下逐渐增强、在75 km以上逐渐减弱,同时抬升的平流层顶也不断下降.通过重力波活动与平流层顶抬升事件的相关性分析,表明重力波活动可能对平流层顶的抬升有重要影响.     

Sudden stratospheric warmings: the role of normal atmospheric modes

The role of normal atmospheric modes in the beginning and development of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events is studied on the basis of calculations with the use of the general circulation model of the middle and upper atmosphere. The analysis of the effect of a phase of quasi-biennial oscillations on the dynamics of the extratropical stratosphere has shown that the conditions for SSW commencement are more favorable and the SSW events are more intense during the easterly phase of these oscillations as compared to the westerly phase. The conclusion has been drawn that fundamental normal atmospheric modes can be recorded in the temperature field at mesopause altitudes during ground-based optical measurements.     

Major and minor stratospheric warmings and their interactions on the troposphere

Analyses of evolutions of the kinetic and thermal energy associated with the major and minor stratospheric warmings in the winters of 1976–77 and 1975–76 respectively indicate that the predominant ultra-long waves in the stratosphere oscillated at periods of 10–20 days, whereas in the troposphere the predominant long waves oscillated at periods of 8 to 12 days. These tropospheric long waves are almost out-of-phase with the stratospheric ultra-long waves for the minor warming, but in-phase for the major warming. The kinetic energy of the zonal mean flow in the stratosphere for the minor warming is much greater than that for the major warming, indicating that the occurrence of a major warming depends on the magnitude of the kinetic energy of the zonal mean flow relative to that of the meridional convergence of the poleward flux of sensible heat. In both the major and minor warmings, most of the stratospheric eddy kinetic energy is contained in waves of wavenumbers 1 and 2, whereas the stratospheric available potential energy is primarily contained in waves of wavenumber 1. The kinetic energy associated with waves of wavenumber 1 appeared to be 180° out-of-phase with those of wavenumber 2, indicating that nonlinear transfer of kinetic energy occurred between waves of wavenumbers 1 and 2. The occurrences of wind reversals were accompanied by decouplings of the stratospheric and tropospheric motions, and blockings in the troposphere.     

Modeling the Effect of Mesospheric Internal Gravity Waves in the Thermosphere and Ionosphere During the 2009 Sudden Stratospheric Warming

The results of numerical experiments on the modeling of thermospheric and ionospheric disturbances under conditions of sudden stratospheric warming are presented to study the possible mechanisms of such disturbances. Local disturbances caused by a planetary wave with zonal wave number s = 1 and internal gravity waves (IGWs) propagating from the disturbed region in the stratosphere are taken into account as sources of disturbances. It is shown that the inclusion of an additional source of thermospheric disturbances caused by mesospheric variations of atmospheric parameters with IGW periods over the region of sudden stratospheric warming leads to significant changes in the parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere, including a change in the global structure of the distributions of the gas components of the thermosphere and a shift in maximum concentrations of atomic oxygen to low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere; there is an increase in the mean values, the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of the ion concentration in the F region of the ionosphere. These features of changes in the parameters of the thermosphere and ionosphere occurred with insignificant disturbances of tidal variations in the thermosphere.     

First results of warm mesospheric temperature over Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during the sudden stratospheric warming of 2009

Rayleigh lidar observations at Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) show an enhancement of the nightly mean temperature by 10–15 K at altitudes 70–80 km and of gravity wave potential energy at 60–70 km during the 2009 major stratospheric warming event. An enhanced quasi-16-day wave activity is observed at 50–70 km in the wavelet spectrum of TIMED–SABER temperatures, possibly due to the absence of a critical level in the low-latitude stratosphere because of less westward winds caused by this warming event. The observed low-latitude mesospheric warming could be due to wave breaking, as waves are damped at 80 km.     

Transport and the seasonal variation of ozone

The transport mechanisms responsible for the seasonal behavior of total ozone are deduced from the comparison of model results to stratospheric data. The seasonal transport is dominated by a combination of the diabatic circulation and transient planetary wave activity acting on a diffusively and photochemically determined background state. The seasonal variation is not correctly modeled as a diffusive process. The buildup of total ozone at high latitudes during winter is dependent upon transient planetary wave activity of sufficient strength to cause the breakdown of the polar vortex. While midwinter warmings are responsible for enhanced ozone transport to high latitudes, the final warming marking the transition from zonal mean westerlies to zonal mean easterlies is the most important event leading to the spring maximum. The final warming is not followed by reacceleration of the mean flow; so that the ozone transport associated with this event is more pronounced than that associated with midwinter warmings.     

平流层爆发性增温对中国天气气候的影响 及其在ENSO影响中的作用

本文通过分析1957~2002年平流层爆发性增温(SSW)的环流特征,研究平流层爆发性增温可能对我国天气气候的影响.平流层爆发性增温发生后平流层高纬地区有异常的环流变化,但是这种变化并不仅局限于平流层内部,其产生的环流异常能够向下传播,并对对流层的天气和气候产生影响.研究发现,平流层出现强爆发性增温后,平流层异常温度场和位势高度场在中、高纬度形成AO型振荡并向下传播,使得对流层低层西伯利亚高压增强、阿留申低压加深,500 hPa东亚大槽加深且偏西,导致东亚冬季风增强,我国北部大部分地区气温偏低.而在爆发性增温前,强行星波扰动使得东亚大槽加深,西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压同时增强,也可能导致东亚冬季风偏强.El Nio可能激发出强行星波,有利于强SSW事件的发生.通过上述的两个过程可能造成东亚冬季风的加强,这将会对"El Nio事件通过对流层过程而引起东亚冬季风减弱"的结论有一定影响. 因此,ENSO事件影响东亚冬季风及中国的天气气候存在不止一种途径,具体影响情况应该是几种途径的综合结果.     

基于临边大气长波红外辐射信号的平流层增温效应研究

本文利用热层-电离层-中间层能量和动力学卫星TIMED中宽带发射辐射计SABER观测的临边大气长波红外背景辐射数据来研究平流层增温效应,基于2012/2013年1—3月在20~100 km高度内的临边大气长波红外背景辐射数据,采用微扰方法,得到辐射扰动的时空分布.结果显示：大气长波红外背景辐射扰动数据能够更精细的展示平流层增温事件的发生,2013年平流层爆发性增温效应下最大辐射扰动幅度出现在40 km处可达160%,而利用温度扰动数据表征此事件的发生时最大温度扰动幅度出现在40 km处只有21%.针对2012年弱平流层增温效应,温度扰动幅度最大值出现在40 km处为16.4%,而辐射扰动幅度的最大值在40 km处可达91%.大气长波红外背景辐射的纬度分布体现出此事件发生于高纬度地区;其经度分布在20~50 km范围内呈现"w"形状;而50 km和80 km处大气长波红外背景辐射的极值区域范围随着事件的发生在高纬度地区都是先扩大随后缩小的过程.这表明高层大气临边红外辐射信号可用于研究平流层增温效应,尤其是对于温度弱起伏的小扰动事件.这对于掌握临近空间环境辐射形成机理及其变化特性亦具有重要意义.     

Global distribution,seasonal, and inter-annual variations of mesospheric semidiurnal tide observed by TIMED TIDI

Based on TIDI mesospheric wind observations, we analyzed the semidiurnal tide westward zonal wavenumber 1 and 2 (SW1 and SW2) component seasonal, inter-annual variations, and possible sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) related changes. Major findings are as follows: (1) The SW1 has a peak near the South Pole during the December solstice and near the North Pole during the March equinox. (2) The SW2 peaks at 60S and 60N mostly during winter solstices. The SW2 also peaks during late summer and early fall in the northern hemisphere. (3) The QBO effect on the semidiurnal tide is much weaker than that on the diurnal tide. The March equinox northern SW1 zonal amplitude appears to be stronger during the westward phase of the QBO, which is opposite of migrating diurnal tide QBO response. (4) Possible SSW event related changes in the semidiurnal tide are significant but not always consistent. Enhancements in the mid-latitude SW2 component during SSWs are observed, which may be related to the increase of total ozone at mid and high latitudes during SSW events. TIDI observations also show a decrease in the SW2 in the opposite hemisphere during a southern SSW event in 2002. Small increases in the high latitude SW1 in both hemispheres during the 2002 southern SSW event were recorded.     

Stratospheric warming effects on the tropical mesospheric temperature field

Temperature observations at 20–90 km height and 5–15°N during the winter of 1992–1993, 1993–1994 and 2003–2004, from the Wind Imaging Interferometer (WINDII) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) experiments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) satellite and the Sounding the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) experiment on the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite are analyzed together with MF radar winds and UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) assimilated fields. Mesospheric cooling is observed at the time of stratospheric warming at the tropics correlative with stratospheric warming events at middle and high latitudes. Planetary waves m=1 with periods of 4–5, 6–8, 10 and 12–18 days are found to dominate the period. Westward 7- and 16-day waves at the tropics appear enhanced by stationary planetary waves during sudden stratospheric warming events.     

Latitudinal and longitudinal variability of mesospheric winds and temperatures during stratospheric warming events

Continuous MF and meteor radar observations allow detailed studies of winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) as well as temperatures around the mesopause. This height region is characterized by a strong variability in winter due to enhanced planetary wave activity and related stratospheric warming events, which are distinct coupling processes between lower, middle and upper atmosphere. Here the variability of mesospheric winds and temperatures is discussed in relation with major and minor stratospheric warmings as observed during winter 2005/06 in comparison with results during winter 1998/99.Our studies are based on MF radar wind measurements at Andenes (69°N, 16°E), Poker Flat (65°N, 147°W) and Juliusruh (55°N, 13°E) as well as on meteor radar observations of winds and temperatures at Resolute Bay (75°N, 95°W), Andenes (69°N, 16°E) and Kühlungsborn (54°N, 12°E). Additionally, energy dissipation rates have been estimated from spectral width measurements using a 3 MHz Doppler radar near Andenes. Particular attention is directed to the changes of winds, turbulence and the gravity wave activity in the mesosphere in relation to the planetary wave activity in the stratosphere.Observations indicate an enhancement of planetary wave 1 activity in the mesosphere at high latitudes during major stratospheric warmings. Daily mean temperatures derived from meteor decay times indicate that strong warming events are connected with a cooling of the 90 km region by about 10–20 K. The onset of these cooling processes and the reversals of the mesospheric circulation to easterly winds occur some days before the changes of the zonal circulation in the stratosphere start indicating a downward propagation of the circulation disturbances from the MLT region to the stratosphere and troposphere during the stratospheric warming events. The short-term reversal of the mesospheric winds is followed by a period of strong westerly winds connected with enhanced turbulence rates and an increase of gravity wave activity in the altitude range 70–85 km.     

Temperature regime of the lower thermosphere during a localized stratospheric warming

The results of measurements of the temperature of the [OI] 557.7 nm emission conducted from December 2002 to March 2003 at the Maimaga optical site near Yakutsk (geographic latitude and longitude are 63° N and 129.7° E, respectively) with the help of a Fabry-Pérot spectrometer are presented. The temperature measurements were conducted continuously during moonless and moonshine nights. To analyze the behavior of the 557.7 nm emission, Doppler temperature during localized in height stratospheric warming events, the data on the stratospheric temperatures (a height-time cut at the 1, 2, 5, 10, 30, 50, and 70 hPa levels and charts of the contour lines of the temperature horizontal field at a level of 50 hPa) obtained from NOAA via the Internet were attracted. During the 2002/2003 winter, localized in height weak stratospheric warming events showing no signs of the vertical mixing were observed. From this point of view, it was interesting to find how the thermal regime of the lower thermosphere behaves in the periods of a localized stratospheric warming. It is shown that in the periods of localized at heights stratospheric warming events, the temperature regime of the lower thermosphere undergoes no changes. The mean temperature at the background of short-period oscillations remains at the level of its model values.     

The boreal spring stratospheric final warming and its interannual and interdecadal variability

Based on the daily NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data,dates of the boreal spring Stratospheric Final Warming(SFW) events during 1979–2010 are defined as the time when the zonal-mean zonal wind at the central latitudes(65°–75°N) of the westerly polar jet drops below zero and never recovers until the subsequent autumn.It is found that the SFW events occur successively from the mid to the lower stratosphere and averagely from the mid to late April with a temporal lag of about 13 days from 10 to 50 hPa.Over the past 32 years,the earliest SFW occurs in mid March whereas the latest SFW happens in late May,showing a clear interannual variability of the time of SFW.Accompanying the SFW onset,the stratospheric circulation transits from a winter dynamical regime to a summertime state,and the maximum negative tendency of zonal wind and the strongest convergence of planetary-wave are observed.Composite results show that the early/late SFW events in boreal spring correspond to a quicker/slower transition of the stratospheric circulation,with the zonal-mean zonal wind reducing about 20/5 m s-1 at 30 hPa within 10 days around the onset date.Meanwhile,the planetary wave activities are relatively strong/weak associating with an out-of-/in-phase circumpolar circulation anomaly before and after the SFW events in the stratosphere.All these results indicate that,the earlier breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV),as for the winter stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events is driven mainly by wave forcing;and in contrast,the later breakdown of the SPV exhibits more characteristics of its seasonal evolution.Nevertheless,after the breakdown of SPV,the polar temperature anomalies always exhibit an out-of-phase relationship between the stratosphere and the troposphere for both the early and late SFW events,which implies an intimate stratosphere–troposphere dynamical coupling in spring.In addition,there exists a remarkable interdecadal change of the onset time of SFW in the mid 1990s.On average,the SFW onset time before the mid 1990s is 11 days earlier than that afterwards,corresponding to the increased/decreased planetary wave activities in late winter-early spring before/after the 1990s.     

Simulations of stratospheric sudden warmings in the Berlin troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere GCM

Stratospheric sudden warming events in the Northern Hemisphere of the Berlin TSM GCM are investigated. In about 50% of the simulated years (13 out of 28), major midwinter warmings occur. This agrees well with observations but, whereas real events tend to occur approximately every second season, those in the model are clustered, most of them occur in the period between years 15/16 and years 24/25. In most other years, minor warming events take place. The warming events are found earlier in the winter than in reality. Many of the observed characteristics of warming events are well captured by the model: pulses of wave activity propagate out of the troposphere; these transient events force the zonal-mean zonal wind in the stratosphere and coincide with increases of the temperature at the North Pole and cooling at low levels in the tropics; temperature changes of opposite sign are modelled at higher levels. Synoptically, the modelled stratosphere evolves quite realistically before the warmings: the cyclonic vortex is displaced from the Pole by an amplifying anticyclone. After minor warmings, the stratosphere remains too disturbed as the cyclonic centre does not return to the North Pole as quickly as in reality. In the aftermath of major warmings the cyclonic vortex is not fully eroded and the anticyclonic circulation does not develop properly over the Pole; furthermore, the wintertime circulation is not properly restored after the event.     

Detailed PSC formation in a two-dimensional chemical transport model of the stratosphere

A new two-dimensional zonal model of the stratosphere, based on a formulation in an isentropic framework, with complete chemistry has been coupled with a high resolution detailed microphysical model for polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). The 2D model chemistry includes all presently known heterogeneous processes on sulfate aerosols and PSCs. The coupling of these two models, with inherently different time scales, is discussed. It is demonstrated that in order to obtain a realistic interrelationship between NO_y and N₂O an accurate simulation of the sedimentation by PSC particles is necessary. A good agreement of model PSC presence and observations is found for the Antarctic polar winter without the need to impose additional artificial temperature variations in the model. The calculated occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds and resulting heterogeneous chemistry during the Antarctic winter are discussed. Sensitivity of the polar stratospheric chemical composition and cloud formation for different perturbations is investigated by studying the effects of transport across the polar vortex boundary and heterogeneous processing by an enhanced sulfate aerosol load. The importance of including sedimentation for all cases is also discussed.     

Stratospheric and mesospheric cooling trend estimates from u.s. rocketsondes at low latitude stations (8°S–34°N), taking into account instrumental changes and natural variability

Long-term changes of temperature and wind data have been investigated using U.S. rocketsondes at six selected sites at northern tropical and subtropical locations (from 8°S to 34°N). The analysis method used here is based on a multi-function regression analysis that allows for a continuous linear trend, for natural variability, and for sudden changes of the mean due to successive instrumental improvements. Results show that while sensor replacement does not seem to induce major measurement bias, successive correction procedures have produced significant mean temperature shifts, mostly above 55 km. Changes in the local time of measurement may have an impact on trend estimates because of tidal effects. This effect is probably enhanced by the direct solar radiative heating on the sensor. Selecting data according to the time of measurement has sometimes reduced the amplitude of the observed cooling.Using a detailed statistical model and error analysis, significant temperature trends are detected in the upper stratosphere with amplitudes slightly increasing with height. As the trend profiles from the selected sites are very similar in patterns and magnitudes, a mean annual temperature trend profile is composed using these six data sets. A significant cooling of 1.1±0.6 K per decade is estimated for 25 km height, increasing with height up to 1.7±0.7 K per decade in the altitude range of 35 to 50 km, and to 3.3±0.9 K per decade near 60 km. Previous published simulations of stratospheric changes induced by greenhouse gas increases and stratospheric ozone depletion, using numerical models, predict smaller cooling than that estimated here by a factor of around two. A similar analysis for zonal wind data reveals no significant changes larger than 5 m · s⁻¹ per decade.     

Variability of the mesospheric wind field at middle and Arctic latitudes in winter and its relation to stratospheric circulation disturbances

Continuous wind observations allow detailed investigations of the upper mesosphere circulation in winter and its coupling with the lower atmosphere. During winter the mesospheric/lower thermospheric wind field is characterized by a strong variability. Causes of this behaviour are planetary wave activity and related stratospheric warming events. Reversals of the dominating eastward directed mean zonal winds in winter to summerly westward directed winds are often observed in connection with stratospheric warmings. In particular, the amplitude and duration of these wind reversals are closely related to disturbances of the dynamical regime of the upper stratosphere.The occurrence of long-period wind oscillations and wind reversals in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere in relation to planetary wave activity and circulation disturbances in the stratosphere has been studied for 12 winters covering the years 1989–2000 on the basis of MF radar wind observations at Juliusruh (55°N, since 1989) and Andenes (69°N, since 1998). Mesospheric wind oscillations with long-periods between 10 and 18 days are observed during the presence of enhanced planetary wave activity in the stratosphere and are combined with a reversal of the meridional temperature gradient of the stratosphere or with upper stratospheric warmings.