关于汶川8.0级地震前两项异常真伪的探讨

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震前出现了成都台重力和姑咱台钻孔应变异常现象,是否属于地震前兆还存在争论.本文针对这些问题,分析了可能存在的环境因素影响及其引起的测值变化形态特征,并以实验方法验证了对姑咱台钻孔应变异常原因的推断.结论表明,成都台重力震前异常是由台风活动引起,姑咱台钻孔应变异常是钻孔内水位干扰所致.     

西安地震台体应变观测资料异常与汶川8．0级地震的疑似对应关系

在2008年5月12日汶川8．0级地震前后,西安基准地震台体应变观测资料出现显著的异常变化。对引起此异常可能的原因进行分析,其一,在异常出现时,台站附近在建筑施工;其二,在其他时段也出现过两次与汶川地震前后相似的异常,是由仪器原因引起。但鉴于异常变化与汶川8．0级地震在时问上的一致性,幅度上的显著性和形态上与一般震例的相似性,故认为,西安台体应变观测资料出现此异常可作为汶川8．0级地震前后的疑似地震异常来处理。     

Crustal deformation before the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake studied using GPS data

We used GPS velocities from approximately 700 stations in western China to study the crustal deformation before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake. The processing methods included analyses of the strain rate field, inversion of fault locking and the GPS velocity profiles. The GPS strain rate in the E-W direction in the Qinghai-Tibet block shows that extensional deformation was dominant in the western region of the block (west of 92.5° E), while compressive deformation predominated in the eastern region of the block (from 92.5° E to 100° E). On a regional scale, the hypocentral region of the Wenchuan earthquake was located at the edge of an intense compression deformation zone of about 1.9 × 10⁻⁸/a in an east-west direction. The characteristic deformation in the seismogenic fault was compressive with a dextral component. The compression deformation rate was greater in the fault's western region than in its eastern region, and the strain accumulation was very slow on the fault scale. The results of a fault locking inversion show that the locking fraction and slip deficit was greater in the middle-northern section of the seismogenic fault than in the southern section. The GPS velocity profile before the Wenchuan earthquake shows that the compression deformation was smaller than the dextral deformation, which is asymmetrical with respect to the distribution of co-seismic displacement. These deformation characteristics should provide some clues to the Wenchuan earthquake which occurred in the later period of the earthquake cycle.     

武都分量钻孔应变在汶川MS8.0级地震前的异常变化分析

通过对武都应变台多年应变资料的处理分析后发现,在汶川8.0级地震发生前,武都台应变有显著的前兆异常变化,它与昆仑山口西8.1级地震前出现的异常有很高的相似度.昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震前都有“α-β-γ”形变阶段,在不同的前兆异常阶段,异常形态有明显的差异,而且各具特点.尤其在β1阶段,EW道、面应变、差应变的异常变化（中期异常）都出现在震前2-3年,持续时间约1年多,而且异常都非常显著.本文详细分析了武都台应变在各个阶段的前兆异常变化特征,并就其原因进行了初步分析.     

几次中强地震前乌什、阿合奇台数字形变资料异常变化分析

利用乌什、阿合奇台数字形变观测资料,分析了近几次远场7级左右地震和近场5级地震前形变资料的变化情况.分析表明:震前2个台的数字形变资料有明显变化的大多是NS分向,部分地震前的中短期异常可以认定,远场强震和近场5级地震前7天左右,乌什水管仪NS向大多存在不同程度高频抖动和畸变的临震异常,与天气干扰导致的高频变化不同.同时,对2个台的数字与模拟倾斜资料进行了对比分析,并对几次中强地震前后形变资料变化所反映的地球物理现象进行了探讨.     

Study on Dynamic Characteristics of Crustal Deformation in the Yunnan Area Using GPS

Based on the GPS velocity field data of 1999-2007 and 2011-2013,we used the least squares configuration method and GPS velocity profile results to synthetically analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of crustal deformation in the Yunnan area before and after the Wenchuan earthquake. The dynamic evolution of GPS velocity field shows that the direction is gradually changed from the south in the southern part of the Sichuan-Yunnan block to the south-west in the southern Yunnan block and there is a clear relative motion characteristic near the block boundary fault zone. Compared with the GPS velocity of 1999-2007, the results of 2011-2013 also reflect segmental deformation characteristics of the block boundary fault zone. Southeast movement shows a significant increase, which may be related to crustal deformation adjustment after the Wenchuan earthquake. The dynamic evolution of strain parameters shows a pattern of "extension in the middle and compression at both ends" in the whole area and the distribution of deformation (shear, extension or compression) is closely related to the background motion and deformation characteristics of the main fault zone. Compared with the results of the period of 1999-2007, the extensional deformation zone of 2011-2013 is expanded eastward and southward. The compressional deformation of the eastern boundary (the Xiaojiang fault zone) of the Sichuan-Yunnan block is no longer significant, which is mainly concentrated in the northern section of the Xiaojiang fault zone and may be related to the post-seismic deformation adjustment of the Wenchuan earthquake. The GPS velocity profile results show that the left-lateral slip velocity of the Xiaojiang fault zone reduced gradually from north to south (10mm/a-5mm/a), and the width of the northern section is wider. The right-lateral slip rate of the Honghe fault zone is about 4mm/a, and the deformation width is wider. The dynamic results show that the Wenchuan earthquake has little effect on the deformation modes of these two fault zones.     

大地震前体应变临震异常现象

本文对2011年1月至2014年4月间全球发生的80次MS≥7级地震前,二张营台和天堂河台Sacks体应变临震异常现象进行了研究,针对复杂震例提出了异常识别的前提条件。统计结果显示,体应变观测对震中距为8000km范围内的MS≥7级地震映震和前兆异常反映较好。同时,对异常现象进行了分类和描述,划分了三种异常类型:即固体潮畸变型、突变型和慢地震型,并对各种类型作了统计分析,初步探讨了力学性质。结果发现,体应变异常信息对未来大地震的发生具有一定的预示意义。     

汶川地震近震源区地形变短期前兆现象的解析

2008年汶川8.0级地震是我国自建国以来灾难最为严重的一次强地震, 有关震前该区域地壳变形情况引起许多学者的关注。 本文给出了沿龙门山地震带地倾斜及跨龙门山断裂断层水准剖面临震前变化的特征: 汶川地震前沿龙门山地震带分布的康定、 汶川及茂县台地倾斜无明短期显变化; 6个断层水准观测场地, 除耿达场地观测到较大幅度变化有争议外, 其他断层观测场震前均未观测到突出的短临前兆性异常变化。 本文分析了汶川地震前大区域地震活动性资料及震前沿南北地震带显著形变异常点分布特点, 探讨了汶川地震震中区域应变积累过程, 认为近震源区域无显著短期前兆变化现象很可能与震中区域介质所具有的高应变、 小变形性质有关。 另外, 也不排除地形变观测点所处的位置等有关因素。     

汶川地震在北京地区的形变同震响应

2008年5月12日四川汶川发生8.0级巨大地震。在这次大地震中,除压磁应力观测手段外,北京地区的钻空、倾斜、伸缩、断层、沙层、体应变等形变分值或秒值采样仪器记录到不同程度的同震响应。为了分析同震响应的表现形态及变化特征,系统搜集、整理和归纳了该地震引发的北京地区数字化同震响应信息。实际记录与分析结果表明,各类形变资料均出现不同幅度的形变震荡波,且不同仪器记震能力差别很大,验证了"九五"、"十五"和奥运保障新安装的数字化形变仪器的可靠性与灵敏性等问题。     

四川汶川8．0级地震前山西昔阳地震台体应变特征和同震效应研究

该文对2008年5月12日四川汶川8．0级地震前山西昔阳地震台体积应变仪出现的异常变化进行了初步分析,结果表明,从3月29日出现的异常变化完全符合在实验研究岩石破裂时,主破裂前和破裂时显示出的突变变化特征。     

临夏地震台观测到的临震预滑和震颤震相

对临夏地震台的YRY-4分量应变仪、水位仪和地震仪记录数据分析后发现:2008年5月12日汶川M_W7.9地震前,在3种不同学科的观测记录上,在相近时间段内均记录到了预滑震相Xp和震颤震相Tp。总结Xp震相和Tp震相记录特征的基础上,试图用实验室做的小尺度黏滑实验结果来佐证和解释所记录到的临震预滑和震颤震相的物理机制。结果表明:临震前的2008年4月18日和5月6日,临夏台所处的地块发生了2次较大幅度的预滑错动,在预滑发生前后还伴有N次震颤现象发生。临震前这2次较大幅度的预滑错动有可能引发了汶川M_W7.9地震。     

Fault deformation anomaly and intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M s=5.9 earthquake

The time-space distribution characteristics of fault deformation anomaly in the near-source region and its outlying zone in the seismogenic process of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake occurred on June 6, 2000 in Gansu Province is studied preliminarily. The distribution scope of fault deformation anomaly before the earthquake is wide, the anomaly shape is complicated and the pattern anomalous zone of fault deformation (strain) information index is obvious. The shape and amplitude of fault deformation anomaly in different regions differ significantly, which is closely related with the tectonic location of anomaly. The fault deformation anomaly of α, β, and γ phases along the western segment of Haiyuan fault zone shows the process from the quasi-linearity to non-linearity of fault movement in the near-source region, matches the high-value anomalous area of fault deformation (strain) information index, and reflects the high strain accumulation in the seismogenic region. However, the anomaly of abrupt jump and cusp with a large amplitude occurred in the areas far from the earthquake, such as Liupanshan fault zone which is the tectonic convergent section does not reflect the strain accumulation of its location, maybe it is a sign that the regional tectonic stress field is strengthened in the seismogenic process. Based on the above-mentioned facts and combined with the preliminary summary of experiences and lessons in the intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M _s=5.9 earthquake, we study and explore the application of fault deformation anomaly to earthquake judgment. Foundation item: National Key Basic Research Development Program (G1998040703 and G1998040705), and State Scientific and Technological Project of the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (96-913-09-01-02-03 and 96-913-09-02-02-03), China.     

岷县漳县6.6级地震前区域地壳运动变形背景与断层形变异常特征

利用甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震区所在的青藏块体东北缘地区的区域水准、GPS、流动重力和跨断层短测线等地形变监测资料,结合地质构造、动力环境和已往的研究结果,分析了不同类型资料反映的震前区域性地壳变形背景、断层形变异常特征和可能的机理.结果认为：（1）岷县漳县6.6级地震前西秦岭、六盘山等构造区不同程度地存在着GPS水平挤压闭锁高应变积累、垂直隆升异常高梯度带和重力升、降差异剧烈变化等中长期背景;（2）震前到震时发震断裂附近及其外围相关构造区域断层形变异常在空间和时间上的起伏波动变化显著,尤其是汶川地震以来的波动变化在一定程度上反映了与本区构造比邻的龙门山断裂带剧烈右旋错动对本区的影响,与本次岷县6.6级地震过程有关;（3）本区有地形变监测资料积累以来缺乏6级以上震例,虽然存在不同程度的中长期形变背景异常,但何时进入短期-短临阶段确实很难把握,需要不断积累总结和探索提高.     

景泰5.9级地震的断层形变异常及中短期预报

初步研究了2000年6月6日甘肃景泰5.9级地震蕴育过程中近源区及外围地区断层形变异常的时空分布特征:震前断层形变异常分布范围广、异常形态复杂，断层形变（应变）类信息指标图象异常区明显．不同地域断层形变异常形态及幅度存在显著差异，与异常所处的构造部位密切相关:海原断裂带西段出现的，，相断层形变异常，显示了近源区断层运动由准线性走向非线性的过程，与断层形变（应变）类信息指标高值异常区相配合，反映蕴震区应变积累程度高；而构造汇聚部位的六盘山断裂带等远场区较大幅度的突跳尖点异常，并不反映所在地的应变积累，而可能是蕴震过程区域构造应力场增强的一个标志．在此基础上，结合对景泰5.9级地震中短期预报经验教训的初步总结，研究和探讨了断层形变异常在震情判定中的应用．      

汶川Ms8．0级强震震前龙门山断裂带断层形变异常分析

概述和分析四川汶川Ms8．0级强震的发震构造及其地质背景,从断层形变的角度研究这次地震前形变场的异常变化情况。结论是：汶川地震区的地形变前兆异常是客观存在的,在某些局部区域甚至是非常显著的;流动短水准观测资料反映出了震前龙门山断裂带局部区域的加速活动;从现有形变资料出发,要实现如此大地震的预报仍然缺乏根据和把握。     

汶川8.0级地震前云南水富井水位长期异常初探

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级特大震发生前,云南昭通水富井水位测值出现长时间、大幅度趋势下降异常。在排除降雨影响后,通过异常形态、持续时间、观测点所处构造分析了该异常与汶川地震的关系,表明了在强震和大震孕震阶段存在水位长期异常。     

汶川MS8.0、 海地MW7.0地震 电磁信号小波能谱分析

应用小波变换方法处理了2008年汶川M_S8.0地震前后成都、 江油台地电阻率观测数据及汶川地震、 2010年海地M_W7.0地震前后DEMETER卫星记录的电离层磁场观测数据, 研究了地电阻率和电离层磁场的小波能谱及其相对变化.结果表明: ① 对应汶川大震前成都台N58°E测道地电阻率中期下降变化和短期上升变化的时段, 地电阻率小波能谱相对变化显著增大, 江油台N10°E测道地电阻率在主震前记录到了临震异常, 在临近主震前后, 电离层磁场特别是x分量的能谱及相对变化显著增大, 展现了与汶川大震明显对应的地电阻率、 电离层磁场变化的似同步异常; ② 在海地地震前夕, 电离层磁场x, z分量的能谱也出现了显著增大的现象, 类似于汶川大震前后电离层磁场的能谱增大变化.      

Fault deformation anomaly and intermediate and short-term prediction of the Jingtai M_s=5.9 earthquake

IntroductionOn June 6, 2000, an earthquake of MS=5.9 occurred in Jingtai county, Gansu Province. The epicenter (37.1(N, 104.0(E) was located in Maomaoshan-Laohushan zone of the western segment of Liupanshan-Haiyuan fault along the northeastern margin of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, where is the middle-eastern part of crustal deformation monitoring area of Gansu-Ningxia- Qinghai region. There are more than 50 spanning-fault mobile monitoring sites in the earthquake area and its vicinity (Fig…     

The medium-short period tilt deformation phases character before the Zhangbei M S=6.2 earthquake and its experimental interpretation

We discussed the linear and nonlinear character of deformation anomaly before the January 10, 1998 Zhangbei earthquake based on the quantitative analysis by using the tilt observation data. And generalized the three phases character of tilt deformation. ①Before the earthquake in the scale of one year, EW tilt keeps relative stationary on the block of the northern part of Yanshan Mountain; the tilt vector recurs around a point near the epicenter; and the abrupt change appears before the imminent earthquake. ② At a geodesic point, tilts discrete level in two directions have a synchronous property with a decline tendency (that is an entropy reduction) in two years before the earthquake. ③ The anomaly intensity AF value at all geodesic points on the same crustal block appear high value anomaly at least two times within 3 years before the earthquake. Using the simulation experimental results of rock rupture, we interpreted the phenomena of tilt deformation relative stationary or other kinds of stationary (process of entropy reduction), of recurrence of tilt deformation vector, of two times AF high values, and even the earthquake in groups, etc.     

2016年7月19日新疆MS 4.5级地震乌什地震台形变异常

利用乌什台数字化前兆形变观测资料,分析乌什M_S 4.5级地震前乌什台水管倾斜仪、洞体应变仪数据变化情况。通过对比分析发现:地震前,洞体应变仪北南分量数据曲线正常,东西分量数据曲线加速拉张,05:14-20:32拉张幅度达到7.40×10-7,7月19日5时至20日16时乌什洞体应变仪东西分量快速拉张了9.20×10-7;7月19日5-19时,水管倾斜仪北南分量数据曲线正常,东西分量数据曲线反向西倾7.13ms,且05:59-06:06、07:36-07:46、18:42-18:56数据掉格,水管倾斜仪异常结束后1小时,在洞体应变仪异常过程中发生了乌什M_S 4.5级地震。水管仪东西分量震前反向西倾,洞体应变仪东西分量震前拉张加速,短临异常明显,且2套形变观测震前异常时间同步性较好。