A new fuzzy multiple attributive group decision making methodology and its application to propulsion/manoeuvring system selection problem

In this paper, a new fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making (FMADM) method, which is suitable for multiple attributive group decision making (GDM) problems in fuzzy environment, is proposed to deal with the problem of ranking and selection of alternatives. Since the subjectivity, imprecision and vagueness in the estimates of a performance rating enter into multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problems, fuzzy set theory provides a mathematical framework for modelling vagueness and imprecision. In the proposed approach, an attribute based aggregation technique for heterogeneous group of experts is employed and used for dealing with fuzzy opinion aggregation for the subjective attributes of the decision problem. The propulsion/manoeuvring system selection as a real case study is used to demonstrate the versatility and potential of the proposed method for solving fuzzy multiple attributive group decision-making problems. The proposed method is a generalised model, which can be applied to great variety of practical problems encountered in the naval architecture from propulsion/manoeuvring system selection to warship requirements definition.     

Including sustainability criteria into inventory models

Research on sustainability performance has considerably enriched operations management literature in recent years. However, work with quantitative models is still scarce. This paper contributes by revisiting classical inventory methods taking sustainability concerns into account. We believe that reducing all aspects of sustainable development to a single objective is not desirable. We thus reformulate the classical economic order quantity model as a multiobjective problem. We refer to this model as the sustainable order quantity model. Then, a multi-echelon extension of the sustainable order quantity model is studied. For both models, the set of efficient solutions (Pareto optimal solutions) is analytically characterized. These results are used to provide some insights about the effectiveness of different regulatory policies to control carbon emissions. We also use an interactive procedure that allows the decision maker to quickly identify the best option among these solutions. The proposed interactive procedure is a new combination of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques.     

Supplier selection and order allocation problem using a two-phase fuzzy multi-objective linear programming

The aim of this paper is to solve a supplier selection problem under multi-price level and multi-product using interactive two-phase fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) model. The proposed model attempts to simultaneously minimize total purchasing and ordering costs, a number of defective units, and late delivered units ordered from suppliers. The piecewise linear membership functions are applied to represent the decision maker’s fuzzy goals for the supplier selection and order allocation problem, and can be resulted in more flexibility via an interactive decision-making process. To demonstrate effectiveness of the proposed model, results of applying the proposed model are shown by a numerical example. The analytical results show that the proposed approach is effective in uncertain environments and provide a reliable decision tool for integrated multi-objective supplier selection problems.     

On the construction of mutual fund portfolios: A multicriteria methodology and an application to the Greek market of equity mutual funds

The evaluation of the performance of mutual funds (MFs) has been a very interesting research topic not only for researchers, but also for managers of financial, banking and investment institutions. In this paper, an integrated methodological framework for the evaluation of MF performance is proposed. The proposed methodology is based on the combination of discrete and continuous multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) methods for MFs selection and composition. In the first stage of the analysis the UTADIS MCDA method is employed in order to develop mutual fund's performance models supporting the selection of a small set of MFs, which will compose the final portfolios. In the second stage, a goal programming model is employed to determine the proportion of the selected MFs in the final portfolios. The methodology is applied on data of Greek MFs over the period 1999–2001 with encouraging results.     

An Interactive Algorithm for Multi-objective Route Planning

We address the route selection problem for Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) under multiple objectives. We consider a general case for this problem, where the UAV has to visit several targets and return to the base. We model this problem as a combination of two combinatorial problems. First, the path to be followed between each pair of targets should be determined. We model this as a multi-objective shortest path problem. Additionally, we need to determine the order of the targets to be visited. We model this as a multi-objective traveling salesperson problem (MOTSP). The overall problem is a combination of these two problems, which we define as a generalized MOTSP. We develop an exact interactive approach to identify the best paths and the best tour of a decision maker under a linear utility function.     

Solving generalized fuzzy data envelopment analysis model: a parametric approach

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a non-parametric technique to assess the performance of a set of homogeneous decision making units (DMUs) with common crisp inputs and outputs. Regarding the problems that are modelled out of the real world, the data cannot constantly be precise and sometimes they are vague or fluctuating. So in the modelling of such data, one of the best approaches is using the fuzzy numbers. Substituting the fuzzy numbers for the crisp numbers in DEA, the traditional DEA problem transforms into a fuzzy data envelopment analysis (FDEA) problem. Different methods have been suggested to compute the efficiency of DMUs in FDEA models so far but the most of them have limitations such as complexity in calculation, non-contribution of decision maker in decision making process, utilizable for a specific model of FDEA and using specific group of fuzzy numbers. In the present paper, to overcome the mentioned limitations, a new approach is proposed. In this approach, the generalized FDEA problem is transformed into a parametric programming, in which, parameter selection depends on the decision maker’s ideas. Two numerical examples are used to illustrate the approach and to compare it with some other approaches.     

Restricting weights in supplier selection decisions in the presence of dual-role factors

One of the uses of data envelopment analysis (DEA) is supplier selection. Weight restrictions allow for the integration of managerial preferences in terms of relative importance levels of various inputs and outputs. As well, in some situations there is a strong argument for permitting certain factors to simultaneously play the role of both inputs and outputs. The objective of this paper is to propose a method for selecting the best suppliers in the presence of weight restrictions and dual-role factors. This paper depicts the supplier selection process through a DEA model, while allowing for the incorporation of decision maker’s preferences and considers multiple factors which simultaneously play both input and output roles. The proposed model does not demand exact weights from the decision maker. This paper presents a robust model to solve the multiple-criteria problem. A numerical example demonstrates the application of the proposed method.     

OR as rational choice: a decision and game theory perspective

Social science disciplines have used decision theory and game theory to provide metaphorical understanding and analytical rigour in their particular domains. The paper explores whether a similar perspective can be applied to operational research (OR) in order to provide an integrating theme for both theory and practice. It is argued that, while the methods of OR are instrumentally rational, OR interventions embrace non-instrumental aspects as well. A case study of an application of decision theory is described and analysed from a decision and game theory (DGT) perspective. The case demonstrates that although the model developed was instrumental, the structure and content of the model reflected the normative and communicative aspects of the decision context. The paper concludes that OR could use a DGT perspective as a conceptual framework for the teaching, research and practice of OR.     

Far Casting Cross-Validation

Cross-validation has long been used for choosing tuning parameters and other model selection tasks. It generally performs well provided the data are independent, or nearly so. Improvements have been suggested which address ordinary cross-validation’s (OCV) shortcomings in correlated data. Whereas these techniques have merit, they can still lead to poor model selection in correlated data or are not readily generalizable to high-dimensional data.

The proposed solution, far casting cross-validation (FCCV), addresses these problems. FCCV withholds correlated neighbors in every aspect of the cross-validation procedure. The result is a technique that stresses a fitted model’s ability to extrapolate rather than interpolate. This generally leads to better model selection in correlated datasets.

Whereas FCCV is less than optimal in the independence case, our improvement of OCV applies more generally to higher dimensional error processes and to both parametric and nonparametric model selection problems. To facilitate introduction, we consider only one application, namely estimating global bandwidths for curve estimation with local linear regression. We provide theoretical motivation and report some comparative results from a simulation experiment and on a time series of annual global temperature deviations. For such data, FCCV generally has lower average squared error when disturbances are correlated.

Supplementary materials are available online.     

Mining axiomatic fuzzy set association rules for classification problems

In this paper, we propose a novel method to mine association rules for classification problems namely AFSRC (AFS association rules for classification) realized in the framework of the axiomatic fuzzy set (AFS) theory. This model provides a simple and efficient rule generation mechanism. It can also retain meaningful rules for imbalanced classes by fuzzifying the concept of the class support of a rule. In addition, AFSRC can handle different data types occurring simultaneously. Furthermore, the new model can produce membership functions automatically by processing available data. An extensive suite of experiments are reported which offer a comprehensive comparison of the performance of the method with the performance of some other methods available in the literature. The experimental result shows that AFSRC outperforms most of other methods when being quantified in terms of accuracy and interpretability. AFSRC forms a classifier with high accuracy and more interpretable rule base of smaller size while retaining a sound balance between these two characteristics.     

基于网络搜索数据和机器学习的票房预测模型

电影票房预测对于管理部门一直是一项重要而复杂的工作。电影票房相关变量复杂多变,且数据获取难度较大是制约当前研究的主要因素。相比之下,网络搜索数据是互联网公司发布的用于记录网民搜索行为的结构化数据,能客观及时反映事物的发展趋势。本研究建立了基于网络搜索数据的混合预测模型。首先,匹配与测试集最相似的训练数据构建最优训练集(OTS)。其次,应用帝国竞争算法(ICA)选择最小二乘支持向量机(LSSVM)的最佳参数组合。最后,使用优化模型进行预测。为了测试模型的效果,使用中国大陆上映的电影票房数据进行模拟实验。结果表明混合模型具有更高的预测精度。本研究所构建的模型适用于中国电影业的票房预测,可为有关部门提供决策参考。     

基于改进的证据推理方法的多指标决策模型

对于一个多指标决策问题，证据理论可以通过构造辨识框架和基本概率分配函数、采取递归的证据合成方法。计算出原始数据在反映多个指标联合作用的情况下对不同判别结果的支持程度，并可以在信息复杂或数据不完整的条件下做出评估决策。本文首先建立基于证据推理的多指标评估问题的基本模型，然后引入了模糊数据方法以处理具有模糊概念或推理关系的复杂问题，同时还考虑了实际问题中可能出现加权证据或者相关证据的情况，其目的是为了建立一套具有实用性的、准确有效的多指标评估模型。文章最后设计一个风险评估的算例，分析了该方法的优点以及需要进一步完善之处。     

Supplier selection using axiomatic fuzzy set and TOPSIS methodology in supply chain management

The current paper presents a comprehensive methodology for supplier selection. In the first stage, the linguistic values expressed as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to assess the weights of the criteria. The Axiomatic Fuzzy Set clustering (AFS) method, which handles ambiguity and fuzziness in the supplier selection problem effectively, is applied to cluster the suppliers and evaluate each potential supplier that aims at obtaining initial supplier ranking. In the second stage, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) model is constructed to determine the weight of various quantitative and qualitative criteria. To address multiple decision criteria in supplier ranking, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is employed to select the final suppliers. A numerical example composed of 30 suppliers and 6 criteria is studied, and the experimental results show that the proposed evaluation framework is suitable for supplier selection decisions even with the dependent criteria/attributes.     

Nearness approximation space based on axiomatic fuzzy sets

The approximation space model was originally proposed by Pawlak (1982) [19]. It was Or?owska who first observed that approximation spaces serves as a formal counterpart of perception, or observation [16, §2, p. 8], in which approximations provide a means of approximating one set of objects with another set of objects using the indiscernibility relation. Topology has been used to enrich the original model of an approximation space as well as more recent models of generalized approximation spaces. In this paper, an extension of th e topology neighborhood based on AFS (Axiomatic Fuzzy Sets) theory is introduced, and some interesting properties are given. Furthermore, a new generalized approximation space model is established with two application examples, which can be used to deal with information tables with many category features and viewed as a multi-granulations form of nearness approximation space models.     

FMMSIC: a hybrid fuzzy based decision support system for MMS (in order to estimate interrelationships between criteria)

One of the main tasks in exploitation of ore-body is to select a suitable mining method. In mining method selection (MMS) problems, a decision procedure has to choose the best exploitation method that satisfies the evaluation criteria. It is generally hard to find a mining method that meets all the criteria simultaneously, therefore a good compromise solution is preferred as the final selection. Furthermore, the MMS problem is an inherently uncertain activity. To deal with the uncertainty, this paper presents an hybrid decision support system based on the fuzzy multi attribute decision making, named the fuzzy mining method selection with interrelation criteria (FMMSIC). FMMSIC models the relative weights of criteria by combining the fuzzy analytic network process and fuzzy entropy, and discusses using these hybrid techniques to determine the overall weights. Subsequently, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution method was modified by various normalization norms according to the MMS problem condition. Finally, to illustrate how the FMMSIC is used for the MMS problems, an empirical study of a real case is conducted. It shows by means of an application that the FMMSIC is well suited as a decision support system for the MMS.     

Employment of neural network and rough set in meta-learning

The selection of the optimal ensembles of classifiers in multiple-classifier selection technique is un-decidable in many cases and it is potentially subjected to a trial-and-error search. This paper introduces a quantitative meta-learning approach based on neural network and rough set theory in the selection of the best predictive model. This approach depends directly on the characteristic, meta-features of the input data sets. The employed meta-features are the degree of discreteness and the distribution of the features in the input data set, the fuzziness of these features related to the target class labels and finally the correlation and covariance between the different features. The experimental work that consider these criteria are applied on twenty nine data sets using different classification techniques including support vector machine, decision tables and Bayesian believe model. The measures of these criteria and the best result classification technique are used to build a meta data set. The role of the neural network is to perform a black-box prediction of the optimal, best fitting, classification technique. The role of the rough set theory is the generation of the decision rules that controls this prediction approach. Finally, formal concept analysis is applied for the visualization of the generated rules.     

An extension of TOPSIS for group decision making

An extension of TOPSIS (technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution), a multi-attribute decision making (MADM) technique, to a group decision environment is investigated. TOPSIS is a practical and useful technique for ranking and selection of a number of externally determined alternatives through distance measures. To get a broad view of the techniques used, we provide a few options for the operations, such as normalization, distance measures and mean operators, at each of the corresponding steps of TOPSIS. In addition, the preferences of more than one decision maker are internally aggregated into the TOPSIS procedure. Unlike in previous developments, our group preferences are aggregated within the procedure. The proposed model is indeed a unified process and it will be readily applicable to many real-world decision making situations without increasing the computational burden. In the final part, the effects of external aggregation and internal aggregation of group preferences for TOPSIS with different computational combinations are compared using examples. The results have demonstrated our model to be both robust and efficient.     

An integrated queuing and multi-objective bed allocation model with application to a hospital in China

In this paper, a multi-objective decision aiding model is introduced for allocation of beds in a hospital. The model is based on queuing theory and goal programming (GP). Queuing theory is used to obtain some essential characteristics of access to various departments (or specialities) within the hospital. Results from the queuing models are used to construct a multi-objective decision aiding model within a GP framework, taking account of targets and objectives related to customer service and profits from the hospital manager and all department heads. The paper describes an application of the model, dealing with a public hospital in China that had serious problems with loss of potential patients in some departments and a waste of hospital beds in others. The performance of the model and implications for hospital management are presented.     

Portfolio selection in the Spanish stock market by interactive multiobjective programming

This study examines new versions of two interactive methods to address multiobjective problems, the aim of which is to enable the decision maker to reach a solution within the range of those considered efficient in a portfolio selection model, in which several objectives are pursued concerning risk and return and given that these are clearly conflicting objectives, the profile of the model proposed is multicriteria. Normally the range of efficient portfolios is fairly extensive thus making the selection of a single one an onerous task. In order to facilitate this process, interactive methods are used aimed at guiding the decision maker towards the optimal solution based on his preferences. Several adaptations were carried out on the original methods in order to facilitate the interactive process, improving the quality of the obtained portfolios, and these were applied to data obtained from the Madrid Stock Market, interaction taking place with two decision makers, one of whom was more aggressive than the other in their selections made.     

纵向数据下线性EV模型的变量选择

本文考虑了纵向数据线性EV模型的变量选择.基于二次推断函数方法和压缩方法的思想提出了一种新的偏差校正的变量选择方法.在选择适当的调整参数下,我们证明了所得到的估计量的相合性和渐近正态性.最后通过模拟研究验证了所提出的变量选择方法的有限样本性质.