中国农村养老社会保险制度反思与重构

由于现行农村养老社会保险制度本身存在缺陷,而且政府主管部门及学术界对建立中国农村养老社会保险计划有许多认识上的误区,所以中国农村养老社会保险事业的发展基本处于停滞状态。这一现状必须加以改变,否则不能适应全面建设小康社会的要求。本文剖析了现行方案存在的问题,对一些认识上的误区进行了澄清,并就构建农村养老社会保险制度的目标模式进行了具体分析。     

从中国农民医疗保健支出行为看农村医疗保健融资机制的选择

我们是在一个市场环境中考察财政融资或医疗保险可能会对农民的医疗开支产生什么效应,这些效应又在何种程度上会影响财政平衡?本人绕过了关于农民对医疗服务与药品需求量的度量,证明了在一定条件下,我们可以根据消费者的货币支出量、支出比率、价格与收入,来估算需求的自价格弹性。我们发现,中国财政对卫生的公共支出占全国卫生总支出的比率,已到了世界最低行列！中国占人口80％的农民在非公共卫生支出中只占不到20％！中国西部(11省、区)的农民医疗卫生负担与东、中部农民相比,呈累退趋势:越穷负担越重！中国农村居民对医疗价格与药品价格的弹性为负,卫生支出对收入的弹性为正,因此,引入保险机制与财政补贴会产生医药开支的膨胀,膨胀系数为0.863！中国西部农民对医疗服务价格的需求弹性显著为负,且小于-1;中国东部农民对药品价格的需求弹性显著为负。在补助医还是补助药上,西部与东部应该采用不同的融资方式。计量结果表明,西部农民的看病、买药决策显著取决于收入水平;而在东部地区,这一关系不显著。财政支出在东部已经起到了降低农民医疗负担的功效;而在西部农村,则尚无这方面效果。     

基于耐用品市场营销的我国农村居民区域消费模式与特征

基于大量的营销调查数据,从分析影响农民消费特征的因素层次入手,探索性地指出了农村市场研究的分析路径,从整体与个体两方面分析,提出农村居民消费的机能需求、核心需求和外延需求3种模式,并利用第一手资料对所提炼的农村居民消费模式特征给以阐述,并分析其影响因素.     

Determining the feasibility and viability of establishing a new computer center in Idah,Benue State,Nigeria

The main objective of this paper is to determine whether it is technologically, financially, economically and legally feasible to establish a new computer center in Idah, Benue State of Nigeria. In Nigeria, most of the computer center installations are located in the cities. There is the need to establish whether a computer center can run at a profit in a town in Nigeria.It was established that there is a market for the computer center both from the public and private sectors in the state. It was felt that it was better to run the center as a limited liability company for the advantages of being a going concern and possibility of raising capital. A tentative management structure was designed.The project was found to be technologically feasible as there are reliable hardware and software in some computer supply companies in Nigeria. It was found to be financially feasible, having a Profitability Index of 121.57% and an Accounting Rate of Return of 67.07%. It was also found to be economically and legally feasible and so the project was recommended to be embarked upon.     

Equitable Taxation and the Provision of Health Insurance Subsidies

Current U.S. income tax laws allow many taxpayers to exclude from taxable income part or all of the cost of acquiring health insurance through an employer‐sponsored benefit plan. This favorable tax treatment generally applies regardless of whether the employer or employee actually pays the health insurance premiums. We describe the effects of this tax policy on the U.S. tax system's horizontal and vertical equity. We also explain how taxpayers covered by employer‐sponsored plans are significantly subsidized by the government in acquiring health insurance, whereas taxpayers who acquire health insurance by other means or who are not covered by health insurance at all receive no such government assistance. We conclude that any prospective health‐care policy initiatives, including modifications to the 2010 health‐care reforms, should contemplate both the horizontal and vertical equity of the tax treatment of health insurance premiums.     

中国农村公共支出及其绩效分析——基于农民收入增长和城乡收入差距的经验研究

本文运用1978～2004年的数据,采用多变量回归和Granger因果检验方法对农村公共支出、农民收入增长以及城乡收入差距之间的关系进行实证研究。结果显示,国家财政的农村支出对农民收入增长起到了一定的促进作用,但由于公共支出的管理、运用效率低下,其作用在统计上并不十分显著;从支出结构看,与农业生产直接相关的生产性支出和基本建设支出占比过高,而农业科研和社会福利等方面的支出过低,而且,由于政府重视程度不够和目标偏差,使得政府公共支出在降低城乡收入差距上的作用不甚明显,从而限制了政府增进社会福利功能的发挥,进而不利于公平增长的实现。在此基础上,本文进一步讨论了如何改变农村公共支出结构以及如何将公共支出政策与农村金融政策相结合等问题。     

城乡社区治理中协商民主的现实样态与机制建构

协商民主与社区治理在多方面存在着紧密的耦合性。协商民主培育了城乡社区治理的参与主体,承接了城乡社区治理的价值诉求,孕育着城乡社区的合作治理新方向,回应了城乡社区治理的现实挑战。同时,社区治理在政治生活和社会生活领域为协商民主提供了广阔的实践平台。相对于威权式社区治理机制,协商民主机制在理念价值、运行绩效、操作技术和秩序建构上均具有其独特的比较优势。据此,必须建构城乡社区治理协商民主机制,充分发挥其比较优势,提升社区行动者的协商能力,推动多种治理机制融合发展,提高社区治理现代化水平。     

Risk Perception and Human Health Risk in Rural Communities Consuming Unregulated Well Water in Saskatchewan,Canada

Rural communities dependent on unregulated drinking water are potentially at increased health risk from exposure to contaminants. Perception of drinking water safety influences water consumption, exposure, and health risk. A community‐based participatory approach and probabilistic Bayesian methods were applied to integrate risk perception in a holistic human health risk assessment. Tap water arsenic concentrations and risk perception data were collected from two Saskatchewan communities. Drinking water health standards were exceeded in 67% (51/76) of households in Rural Municipality #184 (RM184) and 56% (25/45) in Beardy's and Okemasis First Nation (BOFN). There was no association between the presence of a health exceedance and risk perception. Households in RM184 or with an annual income >$50,000 were most likely to have in‐house water treatment. The probability of consuming tap water perceived as safe (92%) or not safe (0%) suggested that households in RM184 were unlikely to drink water perceived as not safe. The probability of drinking tap water perceived as safe (77%) or as not safe (11%) suggested households in BOFN contradicted their perception and consumed water perceived as unsafe. Integration of risk perception lowered the adult incremental lifetime cancer risk by 3% to 1.3 × 10^?5 (95% CI 8.4 × 10^?8 to 9.0 × 10^?5) for RM184 and by 8.9 × 10^?6 (95% CI 2.2 × 10^?7 to 5.9 × 10^?5) for BOFN. Probability of exposure to arsenic concentrations >1:100,000, negligible cancer risk, was 23% for RM184 and 22% for BOFN.     

扩大内需政策对城乡经济协调发展的作用——基于城乡投入产出模型

本文基于自行编制的中国城乡投入产出表,利用生产诱发系数、诱发依赖系数和需求影响报酬模型,定量分析了扩大内需政策对城乡经济协调发展的作用。具体测算了4万亿元投资和家电下乡补贴政策对社会经济和城乡协调发展的影响以及缓解外需下滑的效果。计算结果显示:4万亿元投资和家电下乡等扩大内需政策可诱发全社会总产值增加额101251亿元,相当于2008年社会总产值的11.8%;4万亿元投资对城镇工业的诱发额相当于2008年工业总产值的14%。家电下乡对家电制造及相关行业的诱发额相当于2008年家电制造业产值的41%。4万亿元投资和2009年的家电下乡补贴对社会总产值诱发额比2009年上半年出口减少导致社会总产值的损失高76847亿元;4万亿元投资和家电下乡两项措施合计使城镇和农村居民人均收入分别增加1879元和786元,相当于2008年城镇居民人均收入的11.8%和农村居民人均收入的16.8%。但是,4万亿元投资和家电下乡对城镇劳动者报酬的诱发效果大于对农村劳动者报酬的诱发效果,对促进城乡居民收入均衡发展,来体现显著的促进作用。     

农村地区高职教育为建设社会主义新农村,提高农民收入服务的模式研究

社会主义新农村建设是实现全面小康社会的必然选择。农民收入不高,城乡收入差距大是制约新农村建设的关键因素。新时期高职院校要承担起服务新农村建设的重要责任,需要与时俱进,不断调整教育教学理念,提升自身的服务水平和能力,探索服务新农村建设的新模式。     

基于产业结构的城乡统筹劳动力配置模型

本文从产业结构的角度人手,借鉴已有的模型,对影响劳动力配置的诸多因素进行了深入的分析.并结合城乡统筹就业的特点构建了劳动力配置模型.最后,通过实证分析证明了此模型具有较高的可信度.     

单位管理中人情的本质、影响与掌控方略

人情的本质特征在于自然流露的人之常情、交往互动的现实表征、需求内容得到表达和满足的现实性、普遍心理认同的社会性。单位管理中人情关系既有强化单位成员归属感、润滑单位管理、促进单位管理艺术水平提升的积极影响,也有不利于单位树立规范管理的新风、不利于单位强化制度的约束力、不利于提升单位管理效率的消极影响。掌控单位管理实践中的人情温度,应当形成健康和谐的单位管理文化,树立以人为本的单位管理理念,以柔性管理调和人情与制度之间的张力。     

D&O保险、风险容忍与企业自主创新

本文基于管理者风险容忍的视角,采用中国A股上市公司数据,考察了董事高管责任保险(Directors’and Officers’Liability Insurance,简称D&O保险)对企业自主创新的影响。研究发现:为管理者认购D&O保险显著推动了企业的自主创新行为,且在控制可能的内生性问题后,上述结论仍然成立。进一步研究发现:在投资者保护程度较高、诉讼风险较大以及非国有企业中,D&O保险对企业自主创新的积极影响更为明显;当管理者经历"大饥荒"或出生于贫困地区时,D&O保险对企业自主创新的推动作用更强;D&O保险有助于降低企业高管非正常离职的概率,为企业自主创新保留优秀的人力资本。综上,本文从D&O保险的视角进一步拓展了企业自主创新的影响因素,研究结论对于完善企业风险管理体系,提高管理者风险容忍程度以推进企业创新具有重要的参考与启示意义。     

虚拟品牌社群的价值维度对成员社群意识、忠诚度及行为倾向的影响

从品牌社群的5个价值维度入手,构建用于解释品牌社群成员价值感知、社群意识、忠诚度及其品牌相关行为倾向等变量之间关系的结构模型.以中国网络虚拟品牌社群成员为对象进行的实证分析结果显示,虚拟品牌社群的社交价值、信息价值和娱乐价值对于社群成员社群意识的形成和强化具有积极的作用,财务价值、社交价值、信息价值和娱乐价值能提升社群成员的社群忠诚度,社群意识较强的成员对社群比较忠诚,具有保护品牌声誉的积极意向,同时他们对于竞争品牌也会表现出较高的抵制倾向.     

统筹城乡发展背景下的乡镇职能转变

党的十七大报告指出,要统筹城乡发展,推进社会主义新农村建设.统筹城乡发展的新形势,为加强"三农"工作、建设和谐新农村创造了环境、带来了机遇,但也对现行的乡镇行政管理体制提出了更新更高的要求.     

Getting the Fundamentals Right: Autonomization as a Reform and Governance Tool in the Case of the State Insurance Company Ltd. (SIC) in Ghana

The article is primarily a case study of the use of autonomization in the reform and restructuring of the State Insurance Company Ltd, an SOE in Ghana and addresses two main questions. (1) In view of the fact that the SIC has dual commercial and political objectives, is autonomization suitable for its reform? (2) Under what circumstances can autonomization actually promote efficiency and effectiveness in the proper management and functioning of the SIC? The findings point to answers for both questions. First, autonomization is a defective tool for reforming politically sensitive SOEs but better for non-politically sensitive ones. Secondly, the results point to genuine concerns that autonomization weakens the bonds of political accountability and increases fragmentation of government programs. Finally, the key words in the adoption and implementation of autonomization ought to be context, agency task-specificity and creative adaptation. It adds to the management literature on sub-Saharan Africa and to understanding the management context of Ghana.     

现代国家构建的内涵、困境与出路

现代国家构建理论的现实关切是二战之后新兴的发展中国家在社会转型过程中遭遇的政治失序问题,但这并不是说发达国家当前就没有国家发展和治理危机。当前发达国家最深层次的危机是贫富差距拉大而导致的治理危机,治理危机又引起了合法性危机,而民粹主义的抬头折射出来的是与民主社会相适应的平等的流失。发展中国家政治失序的核心原因则是国家自主性不够、国家能力较弱和严重的经济危机。对于发展中国家来说,构建现代国家,一方面,要加强国家能力建设,维持社会秩序,促进经济发展,避免国家陷入无政府状态;另一方面,要加强对权力的监督和制约,避免成为绝对主义国家。同时,发展中国家必须根据自己国家的国情,选择合适的现代国家构建之路。     

The downside of organizational identification: Relations between identification,workaholism and well-being

Abstract

Employee organizational identification has been proposed and found to be positively related to employee health and well-being. The empirical evidence, however, is not unequivocal, and some authors have suggested possible downsides of identification with the organization as a whole or with a group within it. The potential negative effect of over-identification was tested empirically for the first time in the present paper. Two studies were conducted; Study 1 was cross-sectional and used a sample of Italian law court clerks (N=195) and Study 2 was longitudinal and employed a sample of Italian teachers (N=140 at T2). We proposed a curvilinear mediation model with identification curvilinearly predicting workaholism, and workaholism, in turn, negatively affecting employee well-being. This curvilinear link between organizational identification and workaholism means that workaholism at first decreases with growing identification, but when identification becomes too strong, workaholism increases. The results confirmed our hypotheses, and we discuss theoretical and practical implications.     

隐匿价值、社群学习与知识付费动态定价

互联网知识付费中,知识产品价值对供需双方皆具有“隐匿性”。而网络社群作为产品体验信息的重要来源,在知识价值“显现化”过程中发挥着关键作用。基于此,本文将社群交互因素纳入知识付费两期动态定价博弈模型,深入探讨社群学习机制对最优定价策略的影响。模型分析发现：①最优社群价格存在上限阈值,以确保营造良好社群学习氛围。②最优市场价格依赖于知识成本、消费者参与收益和知识价值后验信念,与知识价值之间呈现“非线性”关系。③知识产品一般应采取渗透式定价方式,而消费者耐心程度、社群活跃度与社群交互效率对均衡价格具有重要影响。进一步福利分析表明,互联网社群学习情境将提升提供者收益。本文揭示了互联网知识交易定价的深层逻辑：社群学习引致的“策略效应”和“信息效应”重塑了消费者行为模式,进而倒逼提供者采取适应性动态定价机制。     

基于RBF神经网络的财产保险公司全面风险预警系统研究

在尝试提出我国财产保险公司全面风险预警指标体系的基础上,利用RBF神经网络构建了财产保险公司全面风险预警模型。然后,对预警信号提出了相应的风险处理方案。最后,利用该RBF神经网络进行全面风险预警,结果表明该网络计算误差小、收敛迅速,网络具有良好的泛化能力。