A forecasting system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function neural network

A predictive system for car fuel consumption using a radial basis function (RBF) neural network is proposed in this paper. The proposed work consists of three parts: information acquisition, fuel consumption forecasting algorithm and performance evaluation. Although there are many factors affecting the fuel consumption of a car in a practical drive procedure, in the present system the relevant factors for fuel consumption are simply decided as make of car, engine style, weight of car, vehicle type and transmission system type which are used as input information for the neural network training and fuel consumption forecasting procedure. In fuel consumption forecasting, to verify the effect of the proposed RBF neural network predictive system, an artificial neural network with a back-propagation (BP) neural network is compared with an RBF neural network for car fuel consumption prediction. The prediction results demonstrated the proposed system using the neural network is effective and the performance is satisfactory in terms of fuel consumption prediction.     

An expert system of price forecasting for used cars using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

An expert system for used cars price forecasting using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is presented in this paper. The proposed system consists of three parts: data acquisition system, price forecasting algorithm and performance analysis. The effective factors in the present system for price forecasting are simply assumed as the mark of the car, manufacturing year and engine style. Further, the equipment of the car is considered to raise the performance of price forecasting. In price forecasting, to verify the effect of the proposed ANFIS, a conventional artificial neural network (ANN) with back-propagation (BP) network is compared with proposed ANFIS for price forecast because of its adaptive learning capability. The ANFIS includes both fuzzy logic qualitative approximation and the adaptive neural network capability. The experimental result pointed out that the proposed expert system using ANFIS has more possibilities in used car price forecasting.     

Combining a neural network with a rule-based expert system approach for short-term power load forecasting in Taiwan

A back-propagation neural network with the output provided by a rule-based expert system is designed for short-term power load forecasting. To demonstrate that the inclusion of the prediction from a rule-based expert system of a power system would improve the predictive capability of the network, load forecasting is performed on the Taiwan power system. The hourly load for one typical day was evaluated and, in that case, the inclusion of the rule-based expert system prediction significantly improved the neural network's prediction of power load. Moreover, the proposed combined approach converges much faster than the conventional neural network and the rule-based expert system method. Extensive studies were performed on the robustness of the built network model by using different specified censoring time. The prediction intervals of future power load series are also provided, to evaluate the prediction efficiency of the neural network model.     

Forecasting building energy consumption: Adaptive long-short term memory neural networks driven by genetic algorithm

The real-world building can be regarded as a comprehensive energy engineering system; its actual energy consumption depends on complex affecting factors, including various weather data and time signature. Accurate energy consumption forecasting and effective energy system management play an essential part in improving building energy efficiency. The multi-source weather profile and energy consumption data could enable integrating data-driven models and evolutionary algorithms to achieve higher forecasting accuracy and robustness. The proposed building energy consumption forecasting system consists of three layers: data acquisition and storage layer, data pre-processing layer and data analytics layer. The core part of the data analytics layer is a hybrid genetic algorithm (GA) and long-short term memory (LSTM) neural network model for accurate and robust energy prediction. LSTM neural network is adopted to capture the interrelationship between energy consumption data and time. GA is adopted to select the optimal architecture for LSTM neural networks to improve its forecasting accuracy and robustness. The hyper-parameters for determining LSTM architecture include the number of LSTM layers, number of neurons in each LSTM layer, dropping rate of each LSTM layer and network learning rate. Meanwhile, the effects of historical weather profile and time horizon of past information are also investigated. Two real-life educational buildings are adopted to test the performance of the proposed building energy consumption forecasting system. Experiments reveal that the proposed adaptive LSTM neural network performs better than the existing feedforward neural network and LSTM-based prediction models in accuracy and robustness. It also outperforms those LSTM networks whose hyper-parameters are determined by grid search, Bayesian optimisation and PSO. Such accurate energy consumption prediction can play an essential role in various areas, including daily building energy management, decision making of facility managers, building information model designs, net-zero energy operation, climate change mitigation and circular economy.     

A neural network predictive control system for paper mill wastewater treatment

This paper presents a neural network predictive control scheme for studying the coagulation process of wastewater treatment in a paper mill. A multi-layer back-propagation neural network is employed to model the nonlinear relationships between the removal rates of pollutants and the chemical dosages, in order to adapt the system to a variety of operating conditions and acquire a more flexible learning ability. The system includes a neural network emulator of the reaction process, a neural network controller, and an optimization procedure based on a performance function that is used to identify desired control inputs. The gradient descent algorithm method is used to realize the optimization procedure. The results indicate that reasonable forecasting and control performances have been achieved through the developed system.     

Combining a neural network and a rule-based expert system for short-term load forecasting

A backpropagation neural network that used the output provided by a rule-based expert system was designed for short-term load forecasting. Extensive studies were performed on the effect of various factors such as learning rate and the number of hidden nodes. Load forecasting was performed on a Taiwan power system to demonstrate that the inclusion of the prediction from a rule-based expert system developed for a power system would improve the predictive capability of the neural network. The hourly power load for two typical days was evaluated, and for both days the inclusion of the rule-based expert system prediction as a network input significantly improved the neural network's prediction of power load. The predictive capability of the network was compared to the expert system as well as to a previously developed neural network. The proposed neural network provided improved predictive capability. In addition, the proposed combined approach converges much faster than both the conventional neural network and the rule-based expert system method.     

A dynamic meta-learning rate-based model for gold market forecasting

In this paper, an improved EMD meta-learning rate-based model for gold price forecasting is proposed. First, we adopt the EMD method to divide the time series data into different subsets. Second, a back-propagation neural network model (BPNN) is used to function as the prediction model in our system. We update the online learning rate of BPNN instantly as well as the weight matrix. Finally, a rating method is used to identify the most suitable BPNN model for further prediction. The experiment results show that our system has a good forecasting performance.     

Fuzzy Delphi and back-propagation model for sales forecasting in PCB industry

Reliable prediction of sales can improve the quality of business strategy. In this research, fuzzy logic and artificial neural network are integrated into the fuzzy back-propagation network (FBPN) for sales forecasting in Printed Circuit Board (PCB) industry. The fuzzy back propagation network is constructed to incorporate production-control expert judgments in enhancing the model's performance. Parameters chosen as inputs to the FBPN are no longer considered as of equal importance, but some sales managers and production control experts are requested to express their opinions about the importance of each input parameter in predicting the sales with linguistic terms, which can be converted into pre-specified fuzzy numbers. The proposed system is evaluated through the real world data provided by a printed circuit board company and experimental results indicate that the Fuzzy back-propagation approach outperforms other three different forecasting models in MAPE measures.     

并联混合神经网络模型及应用研究

单一神经网络难以对复杂模型做出准确的预测,提出了一种并联型混合神经网络模型用于对复杂的系统进行预测,该模型由径向基函数网络、BP网络和控制模块组成。控制模块用于线性映射层,将两种单一神经网络的输出结合并得到最终的输出结果。详细地给出了混合模型的预测方法：首先,利用改进算法分别训练径向基函数网络和BP网络;其次,采用自适应遗传算法优化线性映射层以获得更好的预测精度;最后,利用两个实例比较单一神经网络和提出的混合网络的预测性能。实验表明,混合神经网络在预测精度上比单一网络具有更优的性能,同时,该混合模型为复杂系统提供了一种通用的预测工具。     

基于PCA与改进BP神经网络相结合的电网中长期负荷预测

本文在标准反向传播神经网络的基础上,提出一种结合主成分分析法和改进的误差反向传播神经网络的方法来对电网中长期的电力负荷进行预测。首先利用主成分分析法对电力负荷的影响因素进行特征提取,有效地降低数据样本的维度,消除数据的冗余和线性信息,保留主要成分作为模型的输入数据。然后在标准的神经网络的反向传播环节中引入动量项和陡度因子。两种方法的结合有效地解决了网络收敛速度慢和容易陷入局部最小值的问题。将此方法应用于济源市的中长期电力负荷预测,实验结果表明,基于主成分分析法与改进的反向传播神经网络相结合的方法比常用的标准的反向传播神经网络、基于多变量的时间序列网络及时间序列网络具有更高的计算效率和预测精度,证明提出的预测模型在电力负荷预测中是有效的。     

On modeling microscopic vehicle fuel consumption using radial basis function neural network

Energy conservation is one of the central challenges for the transportation system today. A variety of microscopic vehicle fuel consumption models have been developed to support eco-friendly transport strategies. However, most existing models are regression based and are sensitive to the vehicle-specific parameters and the operating conditions, therefore, an expensive and time-consuming calibration procedure is always indispensable in these models’ application. In this paper, we propose an artificial neural network-based model to avoid the calibration problem. The main works include: (1) collect extensive field datasets such as large-scale controller area network bus to reflect the local transportation environment’s fuel consumption characteristics; (2) conduct correlational analysis to identify the key fuel consumption influence factors; (3) develop a radial basis function neural network-based learning model to capture the nonlinear relationship between the key factors and the corresponding fuel consumption values based on the collected training datasets. The proposed model can give a reasonable prediction of instantaneous fuel consumption without calibration. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated from a combination of both in-lab and field experiments.     

基于关联规则的PSO-Elman短期风速预测

传统神经网络在短期风速预测中,存在易陷入局部极值和动态性能不足等问题,从而导致风速预测精度较低。为了提高风速预测精度,提出一种基于关联规则的粒子群优化Elman神经网络风速预测模型。利用粒子群算法优化Elman神经网络模型参数,以提高算法的收敛速度,避免陷入局部极值,以得到最优的预测值。同时结合关联规则分析考虑气象因素,采用Apriori算法对风速与其他气象因素进行关联规则挖掘,并利用得到的关联规则对风速预测值进行修正与补偿。实验结果表明,所提出的预测模型的预测效果比传统模型的效果更佳,同时验证了结合关联规则考虑气象因素能够降低风速预测误差。     

Neural networks forecasting of flood discharge at an unmeasured station using river upstream information

Based upon information at stations upstream of a river, a back-propagation neural network model was employed in this study to forecast flood discharge at station downstream of the river which lacks measurement. The performance of the neural network model was evaluated from the indices of root mean square error, coefficient of efficiency, error of peak discharge, and error of time to peak. The verification results showed that the neural network model is preferable, which performs relatively better than that of the conventional Muskingum method. Furthermore, the developed model with different input parameters was trained to check the sensitivity of physiographical factors. The results exhibited that flood discharge and water stage, are two factors to dominate the accuracy of estimation. Meanwhile, the physiographical factors had a slight and positive influence on the accuracy of the prediction. The time varied flood discharge forecasting at an unmeasured station might provide a valuable reference for designing an engineering project in the vicinity of the investigation region.     

Using a diffusion wavelet neural network for short-term time series learning in the wafer level chip scale package process

Wafer level chip scale packages (WLCSP) have the advantages of high efficiency, high power and high density, and can ensure the consistent printed circuit board assembly necessary to achieve high yield and reliability. WLCSP are attracting more attention as electronic devices continue to become smaller and more portable. Although this package technology can enhance electronic signal input/output density, there is often the problem of a low yield in the early stage of its introduction. Several manufacturing factors influence the packaging process, with the height of the solder balls on multilayer metallic film being the decisive one. Due to the very few samples produced in pilot runs in the early stages of new product development, statistical process control charts can only provide limited information. This study is based on the idea of timeline division, and proposes a diffusion wavelet neural network which uses the correlated virtual sample generating method to improve its predictive performance for short-term time series. The diffusion wavelet neural network can improve the predictive accuracy more effectively than either a back-propagation neural network or a grey-based forecasting method.     

带反馈输入BP神经网络的应用研究

为了有效解决具有非线性特征的水文预报精准度的问题,通过对反向传播BP神经网络的学习和研究,分析了变量间的相互信息,提出了系统间相关信息熵的概念,并建立了适合水文预测的自迭代反向传播神经网络模型.该模型通过对迭代因子的及时修正,在反向传播中不断调整网络的权值和阈值,从而在很大程度上改善了传统BP算法所带来的不足,提高了预测的精度.实际的应用研究表明,自迭代反向传播模型的预测效果优于传统预测模型.     

Support vector machine with adaptive parameters in financial time series forecasting

A novel type of learning machine called support vector machine (SVM) has been receiving increasing interest in areas ranging from its original application in pattern recognition to other applications such as regression estimation due to its remarkable generalization performance. This paper deals with the application of SVM in financial time series forecasting. The feasibility of applying SVM in financial forecasting is first examined by comparing it with the multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network and the regularized radial basis function (RBF) neural network. The variability in performance of SVM with respect to the free parameters is investigated experimentally. Adaptive parameters are then proposed by incorporating the nonstationarity of financial time series into SVM. Five real futures contracts collated from the Chicago Mercantile Market are used as the data sets. The simulation shows that among the three methods, SVM outperforms the BP neural network in financial forecasting, and there are comparable generalization performance between SVM and the regularized RBF neural network. Furthermore, the free parameters of SVM have a great effect on the generalization performance. SVM with adaptive parameters can both achieve higher generalization performance and use fewer support vectors than the standard SVM in financial forecasting.     

Growing RBFNN-based soft computing approach for congestion management

In the emerging restructured power system, the congestion management (CM) has become extremely important in order to ensure the security and reliability of the system. In addition to this, lack of CM can impose a hindrance in electricity trading. This paper presents a novel, growing radial basis function neural network (GRBFNN)-based approach for CM. For achieving CM, Nodal congestion price (NCP) forecasting is performed in real time competitive power market. NCP forecasting is an effective way of price-based preventive CM as it directly indicates the presence as well as the severity of the congestion in the system. In present paper, GRBFNN has been developed for NCP forecasting dividing the whole power system into various congestion zones. An unsupervised learning vector quantization (VQ) clustering algorithm is applied as feature selection technique for the developed GRBFNN and for partitioning the power system into different congestion zones. For each congestion zone a separate neural network has been developed to ensure faster training and accurate forecasting results. The proposed approach of CM is implemented on an RTS 24-bus system. The results obtained are compared with a different constructive algorithm-based RBF network called as general regression neural network (GRNN) and two back-propagation algorithms based ANNs. Comparison results show that proposed GRBFNN is more computationally efficient with better predictive ability.     

Universal energy consumption forecasting system based on neural network ensemble

Problems of neural network forecasting system, invariant to type of energy consumption schedule are solved. Minimum length input vector structure is explained; neural network ensemble structures are determined; selection of the most effective neural network types in the ensemble is held. Original three-level structure of neural network ensemble is developed. Its high forecasting capability makes network perspective for solving information statistical analysis problems.     

Chained DLS-ICBP Neural Networks with Multiple Steps Time Series Prediction

Based on the circular back-propagation (CBP) network, the improved circular back-propagation (ICBP) neural network was previously put forward and exhibits more general architecture than the former. It has a favorable characteristic that ICBP is better than CBP in generalization and adaptation though the number of its adaptable weights is generally less than that of CBP. The forecasting experiments on chaotic time series, multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems and the data sets of daily life water consumed quantity have proved that ICBP has better capabilities of prediction and approximation than CBP. But in the above predicting process, ICBP neglects inherent structural changes and time correlation in time series themselves. In other words, they do not take into account the influence of different distances between observations and the predicting point on forecasting performance. The principle of discounted least-square (DLS) formulates this influence exactly. In this paper, the DLS principle is borrowed to construct the learning algorithm of DLS-ICBP. On this basis we construct chained DLS-ICBP neural networks by combining a new kind of chain structure to DLS-ICBP and investigate multiple steps time series prediction. We prove that DLS-ICBP has better single and multiple step predictive capabilities than ICBP through experiments on the data sets of Benchmarks and water consumed quantity.     

Fuel consumption prediction for pre-departure flights using attention-based multi-modal fusion

Improper fuel loading decision results in carrying excessive dead weight during flight operation, which will burden the airline operation cost and cause extra waste emission. Existing works mainly focused on the post-event fuel consumption based on flight trajectory. In this work, a novel deep learning model, called FCPNet, is proposed to achieve the fuel consumption prediction (FCP) before the flight departure. Considering the influential factors for aircraft performance, the multi-modal information sources, including the planned route, weather information, and operation details, are selected as the model input to predict fuel consumption. Correspondingly, three modules are innovatively proposed to learn embedding features from multi-modal inputs. Based on the planned route, the graph convolutional network is proposed to mine the spatial correlations in the non-Eulerian route network. Considering the grid attributes of the weather information, the ConvLSTM is applied to learn abstract representations from both the temporal and spatial dimensions, in which the three-dimensional convolution neural networks are also designed to fine-tune intermediate feature maps. The fully connected layer is also proposed to learn informative features from operation details. Finally, an attention-based fusion network is presented to generate the final embedding by considering the unique contributions of the multi-modality sources, which are further applied to predict flight fuel consumption. A binary encoding representation is proposed to formulate the FCP task as a multi-binary classification problem. The proposed model is validated on a real-world dataset, and the results demonstrate that it outperforms other baselines, i.e., achieving a 6.50% mean absolute percentage error, which can practically support the airline operation and global emission control before flight departure.