Improvement of Worldwide Version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information (WSPEEDI), (I)

The new version of WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is developed by introducing the combination of models, the atmospheric dynamic model MM5 and the Lagrangian particle dispersion model GEARN-new to improve the prediction capability of atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides discharged during nuclear emergency. The major improvements are (1) the forecasts of meteorological conditions with high resolution in time and space, (2) the simultaneous calculations for local and regional areas and (3) the consideration of detailed physical processes (e.g. wet deposition, vertical diffusion in atmospheric boundary layer). The performance of new models is evaluated by air sampling data on ¹³⁷Cs over Europe during the Chernobyl accident. The calculated surface air concentrations showed good agreement with measurements.     

Development of a short-term emergency assessment system of the marine environmental radioactivity around Japan*

The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has, for many years, been developing a radionuclide dispersion model for the ocean, and has validated the model through application in many sea areas using oceanic flow fields calculated by the oceanic circulation model. The Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident caused marine pollution by artificial radioactive materials to the North Pacific, especially to coastal waters northeast of mainland Japan. In order to investigate the migration of radionuclides in the ocean caused by this severe accident, studies using marine dispersion simulations have been carried out by JAEA. Based on these as well as the previous studies, JAEA has developed the Short-Term Emergency Assessment system of Marine Environmental Radioactivity (STEAMER) to immediately predict the radionuclide concentration around Japan in case of a nuclear accident. Coupling the STEAMER with the emergency atmospheric dispersion prediction system, such as Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information version II (WSPEEDI-II), enables comprehensive environmental pollution prediction both in air and the ocean.     

小型动力堆核事故后放射性核素海洋大气扩散研究

应用于海洋的小型核反应堆技术日渐成熟,但目前核事故大气扩散研究主要针对于沿海或内陆情况。为使大气扩散计算模型适用于海洋环境,本文对高斯烟羽模型进行了修正,应用MACCS程序研究了小型动力堆严重事故所造成的后果。结果表明,若烟羽未抬升,可溶性核素积分浓度垂直分布受水体影响较大,低空的核素积分浓度明显降低;若烟羽被抬升,源项附近海面的核素积分浓度较低,水体对其产生的影响较小;整个扩散过程中,水体主要影响海面附近核素积分浓度大的区域。     

内陆代表性厂址事故扩散因子不同估算方法的比较

针对内陆核电选址中小风、静风频率较高的厂址,分别采用美国核管会(NRC)导则推荐方法和运用三维客观诊断风场与Lagrangian烟团模型模拟整年8 760小时逐时排放方法,计算了湖南桃花江厂址事故工况下的大气扩散因子,探讨复杂条件下大气扩散模型的适宜性。研究表明:在非居住区边界概率论方法计算的最大小时事故扩散因子较烟团模型计算方法保守;Lagrangian烟团模型计算的小时事故扩散因子在某些方位大于概率论方法结果,某些远距离子区的扩散因子大于近距离子区;对于释放时间相对较长的情形,导则方法估算结果仍偏小。由此可见,导则推荐方法得到的扩散因子存在不保守的情形,建议在计算复杂地形、小静风频率较高的内陆厂址事故扩散因子时慎重选择扩散模型。     

"切尔诺贝利阴影"与地方核应急心理环境的构建

针对原苏联切尔诺贝利核事故在核应急区人群中产生的心理影响,提出了一个心理学范畴的概念——“切尔诺贝利阴影”,分析了其成因及“阴影”下应急区内社会心理环境的特点,讨论了核应急区内居民和谐心理环境建设的工作重点,为我国地方核电发展创建一个科学、和谐的心理环境提供参考。     

大气扩散模型ATSTEP在核应急决策支持系统中的应用研究

以广东大亚湾核电站为参考厂址，研究了欧洲核应急决策支持系统RODOS3．0中的大气摭用模型ATSTEP的适用性。研究结果表明，ATSTEP是一个计算速度快，适用于事故后快速评价的模型。另外，对模型中存在的若干缺陷和不足进行了修改和说明。     

大气扩散模型验证与比对的工具和方法

大气扩散模型的验证和比对是核应急决策支持／事故后果评价系统的研究与开发工中的一个非常重要的方面,同时又是一项具有挑战性的课题。本文针对大气扩散模型验证工作中的主要难点和相应对策,重点介绍了两种进行模型验证和比对的软件工具及其验证和比对的方法,包括相关的数据集,并列举了一些模型验证与比对分析的实例。     

卡尔曼滤波反演核设施核事故中核素释放率的研究

为能在核设施发生核事故时快速连续反演核素释放率,本文结合高斯多烟团大气扩散模型,模拟固定区域的连续监测数据,设计并实现了核设施核事故核素释放率的卡尔曼滤波实时跟踪反演。研究结果表明：与高斯多烟团大气扩散模型结合的卡尔曼滤波器,在约10次滤波后,跟踪到虚设的稳定、线性及非线性变化的释放率真值,反演值标准差随真值的增大而增大;在扩展卡尔曼滤波反演释放高度时,由于截断误差过大,滤波结果不收敛。利用环境监测数据,通过与高斯多烟团大气扩散模型结合的卡尔曼滤波器可用于固定高度和位置、短时连续排放的核事故核素释放率参数反演,是核设施核事故应急可选择的源项反演手段。     

The causes and consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident and implications for the regulation of U.S. nuclear power plants

As in the case of the TMI accident public concern around the world over nuclear safety has been aroused by the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Because of its severity and enormous impact on public opinion, it is important to study the accident and its implications carefully and to provide accurate information to the public.Since this was the first nuclear accident with large offsite releases of radionuclides, valuable insights are to be gained especially, for example, from Soviet actions to terminate the accident and mitigate its consequences, emergency preparedness and evacuation measures, medical treatment, protection against contaminated food and water supplies, and a variety of post-accident recovery measures.With the perspective of a year since the accident and a recent visit by the Author to Chernobyl with a U.S. nuclear safety delegation this paper reviews a number of new studies to draw conclusions about the causes of the Chernobyl accident, its health and environmental consequences and some of the implications for regulation of the safety of U.S. nuclear power plants.     

GA-based dynamical correction of dispersion coefficients in Lagrangian puff model

In atmospheric dispersion models of nuclear accident, the dispersion coefficients were usually obtained by tracer experiment, which are constant in different atmospheric stability classifications. In fact, the atmospheric wind field is complex and unstable. The dispersion coefficients change even in the same atmospheric stability,hence the great errors brought in. According to the regulation, the air concentration of nuclides around nuclear power plant should be monitored during an accident. The monitoring data can be used to correct dispersion coefficients dynamically. The error can be minimized by correcting the coefficients. This reverse problem is nonlinear and sensitive to initial value. The property of searching the optimal solution of Genetic Algorithm(GA) is suitable for complex high-dimensional situation. In this paper, coupling with Lagrange dispersion model, GA is used to estimate the coefficients. The simulation results show that GA scheme performs well when the error is big. When the correcting process is used in the experiment data, the GA-estimated results are numerical instable. The success rate of estimation is 5% lower than the one without correction. Taking into account the continuity of the dispersion coefficient, Savitzky-Golay filter is used to smooth the estimated parameters. The success rate of estimation increases to 75.86%. This method can improve the accuracy of atmospheric dispersion simulation.     

分段烟羽模型和烟团模型在核事故应急中的应用比较

为了研究分段烟羽模型和烟团模型在核事故应急中的适用性 ,对不同流场条件下分段高斯烟羽模型和烟团模型的模拟结果进行了比较。在均匀稳定流场中 ,两种模型的模拟结果相近 ;而在非均匀稳定的流场中 ,分段烟羽模型的模拟结果呈现明显的不连续性。而且对于瞬时释放 ,烟团模型比分段烟羽模型更接近实际情况。通过对模型性能的对比 ,并考虑应急决策支持的要求和我国核电站的厂址条件 ,推荐采用烟团模型     

利用福岛第一核电厂事故期间环境监测资料反推事故释放源项

2011年3月11日,日本福岛核事故导致放射性物质向大气环境的大规模释放。本工作利用大气数值预报模式WRFV2.2.1和大气弥散模式CALPUFF,对事故期间放射性物质的大气输运和弥散进行了模拟。应用大气释放源项的逆推算方法,结合单位释放率条件下的大气弥散模拟结果和环境监测数据,对福岛第一核电厂1到3号机组向大气环境释放的放射性核素总量进行了评估,推算的131I和137 Cs气载释放量分别为8.6×1016 Bq和8.6×1015 Bq。     

小型动力堆码头中破口失水事故大气扩散研究

采用高斯分段烟羽模型估算了某小型动力堆在码头内发生破口尺寸为29.4%当量直径的设计基准事故时,放射性核素在码头20 km区域范围内的大气扩散规律。源项采用严重事故计算程序MELCOR仿真获得,并将计算结果输入到大气扩散分析软件MACCS进行分析计算。计算结果表明：中破口失水事故会造成码头区域的放射性污染,风速越小、气象条件越稳定,放射性的影响范围越大。     

Improvement of accident dose consequences simulation software for nuclear emergency response applications

This study integrated the nuclear power plant simulation software, PCTRAN, with an atmospheric diffusion model to efficiently evaluate a nuclear power plant accident and its off-site dose consequences. PCTRAN, with its user-friendly interface, provides a fast simulation scheme that can simulate many kinds of nuclear power plant accidents. Once accident initiation events are activated in the software, the plant parameters are calculated and displayed via animations on the user interface. Based on the simulated plant conditions, the radioactive materials considered in the software may be released from the plant to the environment. In this study, a dispersion algorithm, including a modified atmospheric diffusion model and its programming method, is proposed such that PCTRAN satisfies the application requirements to be used to plan nuclear emergency responses. First, the modified atmospheric diffusion model handles the variations of meteorological conditions (wind direction, wind velocity, and stability category) during a nuclear power plant accident simulation. Furthermore, the proposed programming method promotes calculation capability and efficiency by reducing the computational burden. For demonstration purposes, a postulated accident event was simulated for the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant in Taiwan. The overall accident evolution, whole plant response, and off-site dose consequences could be predicted much earlier than what actually occurs. The thyroid and whole body dose rates (and their accumulations) as a function of accident time are displayed on the map within the emergency planning zone (EPZ). The influence of the accident on the off-site area can thus be estimated earlier, and the emergency classification can be determined by referring to the emergency action levels (EALs) for a quick nuclear emergency response.     

Was the Chazhma Accident a Chernobyl of the Far East?

The 1985 reactivity accident on a submarine in bukhta Chazhma was accompanied by a substantial emission of fission products and activational radionuclides whose total activity reached 5 MCi. Some specialists have compared this emission to the emission resulting from the 1986 accident in Chernobyl, neglecting the large difference in the radionuclide composition: short-lived products of prompt fission of uranium (with an admixture of activational ⁶⁰Co) in Chazhma and long-lived fission products accumulated over the run of the power reactor with an admixture of short-lived nuclides from the spontaneous excursion of the RBMK-1000 reactor in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. It is shown that the emission of long-lived radioecologically significant radionuclides in Chazhma was approximately 0.79 Ci, while in the Chernobyl accident this emission was 90 MCi.A quantitative comparison is presented of the activity and radionuclide composition between the accidents in Chazhma and Chernobyl taking account of the fraction of long-lived radionuclides and neglecting the radioactive inert gases. These quantitative estimates are used to show that the Chazhma accident is not analogous to the 1986 accident in Chernobyl.     

截断总体最小二乘变分核事故源项反演数值研究

放射性释放源项是核事故应急与事故后果评价的基础。核事故源项反演方法利用事故期间辐射环境监测数据估计事故释放源项。由于其不依赖电厂状态参数，在福岛核事故后被广泛重视。变分核事故源项反演模型（VAR）对释放源项的求解为全局最优，但受大气扩散模型误差的影响较大。为降低大气扩散模型误差对源项估计结果的影响，建立了截断总体最小二乘变分核事故源项反演数值计算模型（TTLS-VAR）。该模型可对扩散模型算子与监测向量进行修正，以提高源项反演的准确性。基于风洞实验数据对TTLS-VAR模型进行验证，结果显示:TTLS-VAR模型对释放源项估计结果的准确性较VAR模型有所提高。      

RODOS系统中两种大气弥散模型链的比较

通过对RODOS系统中两种大气弥散模型链在均匀和非均匀气象条件情况下风场与大气扩散的计算结果进行比较，表明：在进行核事故后果评价中采用风场模式确定烟羽输送轨迹是非常重要的，特别是对于复杂地形厂址；分段烟羽模式的ATSTEP模型在整个评价区采用单点风资料，仅在乎坦均匀地形和稳定条件下是一种有用的近似，对于复杂地形厂址其适用性将受到限制；从对风场的处理方法和对大气扩散的模拟角度看，采用Lagrange移轨迹烟团模式的RIMPUFF模型模拟的结果相对要好。     

Utilization of Mesoscale Atmospheric Dynamic Model PHYSIC as a Meteorological Forecast Model in Nuclear Emergency Response System

It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic Hydrostatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain.

This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability.     

Estimation of release rate of iodine-131 and cesium-137 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant

The atmospheric release rates of I-131 and Cs-137 from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 were estimated by comparing environmental monitoring data of air concentration and deposition rate on a regional scale with calculated values from an atmospheric dispersion model. Although the release rates were not estimated for all days after 11 March, because of lack of monitoring data, temporal changes in the release rates were reasonably estimated with estimated uncertainties in a factor of 3.3 and 2.9 for I-131 and Cs-137, respectively. A large release was estimated from the night of 14 March to at least the afternoon of 15 March, with maximum values of 7.2 × 10¹⁵ Bq h^?1 for I-131 and 1.5 × 10¹⁴ Bq h^?1 for Cs-137. The release rates during other periods were estimated at one- to two-orders of magnitude smaller than the largest release rate on 15 March. Uncertainty in the estimated release rate for 15 and 20 March was larger than for other periods. The significant release during 14 and 15 March and the trend of the release rate by the end of March were consistent with previous reports. This agreement, despite using different datasets, shows robustness of the temporal changes estimated in the studies.     

Stepwise integral scaling method for severe accident analysis and its application to corium dispersion in direct containment heating

Accident sequences which lead to severe core damage and to possible radioactive fission products into the environment have a very low probability. However, the interest in this area increased significantly due to the occurrence of the small break loss-of-coolant accident at TM1–2 which led to partial core damage, and of the Chernobyl accident in the former USSR which led to extensive core disassembly and significant release of fission products over several countries. In particular, the latter accident raised the international concern over the potential consequences of severe accidents in nuclear reactor systems. One of the significant shortcomings in the analyses of severe accidents is the lack of well-established and reliable scaling criteria for various multiphase flow phenomena. However, the scaling criteria are essential to the severe accident, because the full scale tests are basically impossible to perform. They are required for (1) designing scaled down or simulation experiments, (2) evaluating data and extrapolating the data to prototypic conditions, and (3) developing correctly scaled physical models and correlations. In view of this, a new scaling method is developed for the analysis of severe accidents. Its approach is quite different from the conventional methods. In order to demonstrate its applicability, this new stepwise integral scaling method has been applied to the analysis of the corium dispersion problem in the direct containment heating.