四川地区2019年11月5日地磁加卸载响应比异常分析

针对2019年11月5日四川地区出现的地磁加卸载响应比异常现象,通过初步异常判断、仪器运行状态检查、观测资料可靠性检查、环境干扰调查、高压直流输电情况调查、磁扰活动影响分析和台站基础数据对比,综合认为该日出现的地磁加卸载响应比的异常受外界干扰可能性很小,该日异常是地震前兆异常的可能性较大;结合地磁加卸载响应比法的震例总结和预测指标,认为此次异常出现后的约6个月,阈值线附近区域存在发生MS≥5.0中强地震的可能。     

地磁与地电混合观测台地磁的地电测数干扰处理方法

我国地震前兆观测台网中地磁与地电观测仪器经常相距很近。 而地电台每小时加电观测一次, 由于电磁感应, 使得地磁观测资料有间隔为1小时的高频干扰, 使得地震前兆信息或其他地球物理过程产生的异常信息在地磁数据分析中难以分辨。 经过分析这些干扰信息特点, 提出了采用Fourier变换在频率域中将高频干扰进行滤除和采用与典型干扰波形相关的方法去除地电测数干扰, 该文对安徽蒙城地震台的观测资料的处理结果表明了方法的有效性。 很多中国大陆地震前兆观测台具有类似的干扰, 因此该方法具有一定推广价值。     

营口地震台地磁数据加卸载响应比和逐日比异常核实

针对2019年9月12日营口地震台地磁数据加卸载响应比和逐日比超阈值异常,从仪器观测系统,环境干扰等方面对异常信息进行了科学严谨的分析,结果认为这次地磁加卸载响应比和逐日比异常是地震前兆异常的可能性较大。     

新疆喀什地区地震前地磁脉动异常分析

1996年11月17日至29日在新疆喀什地区发生8次地震,震前均观测到地磁脉动异常．文中对未发生地震期间地磁脉动观测的背景环境以及喀什台常见的地磁脉动进行分析,然后对地震前地磁脉动异常现象进行研究,并初步探讨这种震前地磁脉动异常的产生机制．这种震前发生的地磁脉动异常在地震的短期预报上可能有广泛的应用前景．     

1991年3月26日5.8级地震的磁效应初探

本文将华北地区1990年10月—1991年4月地磁核旋定点观测数据利用加权差分法和带通滤波处理提取地震磁效应。发现1991年3月26日山西大同发生Ms5.8级地震的地磁前兆异常和同震异常现象。     

地磁观测中的干扰分析及排除

地磁观测是地震前兆观测的基本项目之一,观测资料的质量高低直接影响到地震预报的准确率.各个观测台站在观测过程中仪器是否受到干扰要做认真准确的分析,这样才能保证资料的可靠性.溧阳地震台从新台址启用后,观测人员发现观测数据的精度与其它台有一定的差距,为此,我们对影响地磁观测的各种因素进行了分析,并逐项进行排除,最终使溧阳台的地磁观测资料由不可用,变为精度较高,稳定性很好,从而使地磁观测资料质量得到保证.     

石柱地震台地磁观测干扰分析

2016年以来石柱地震台地磁观测数据明显受到环境干扰,与相邻地震台日均值数据进行相关性分析,确定在干扰时段内,地磁观测数据主要受台站环境改造及周边建筑施工影响。据干扰产生原理将干扰源分为铁磁性和电磁性干扰,分析干扰时段内地磁观测数据曲线典型特征,为今后地磁台站选址及干扰判别积累经验。     

对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析与思考

研究了汶川8.0级地震前四川地区模拟和数字地电、地磁类观测资料。四川地区地电6台站的26测项模拟观测,在汶川8.0级地震前仅出现1项中期异常,异常台站比1/6=0.17;异常测项比为1/26=0.04。对"九五"到"十五"期间四川地区数字化改造或数字地电观测资料,没有分析检测出异常项。四川地区6个台的地磁垂直分量整点值的日变形态在震前2天出现波谷分裂的异常现象,由于平时出现此类异常频繁,若用于预测无统计学的显著意义。可见汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电和地磁类观测资料结果出现的异常现象比例是极低的。同时对疑似或有争议的异常测项进行分析说明,对汶川8.0级地震前电磁类异常少的原因进行了讨论。     

2013年吉林松原M5.8地震震前地磁异常分析

应用东北地区地磁观测台站地磁总场强度整点值观测数据,利用每日一值相关法和差值法;应用地磁垂直分量日变幅观测数据,利用加卸载响应比和逐日比方法,分析地磁总场强度F分量、垂直Z分量与吉林省松原M5.8地震应震关系,分析上述方法对提取地磁观测数据震前异常信息的有效性。     

地磁台站观测异常识别与数据重构技术研究

正地磁学是一门以观测为基础的学科。完整的高精度地磁数据不仅服务于地磁学本身更是地震研究、地质构造研究、地球深部研究和矿产勘探等研究领域的基础。自2008年我国数字化地磁观测台网建成以来,虽然大批量高精度的数据得以积累,但同时观测台网中大部分地磁台站正受到外界人工电磁干扰源的干扰。由于干扰形态复杂,干扰时间不规律和干扰与正常磁扰叠加给数据处理造成了困难,截止目前,尚未形成统一的观测异常辨识和处理方法,     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.